WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

Oneiric 3

ECM tonight looks very marginal to non-existent for a 'big snow event'. Shallow mA air mass warming rapidly on its dive south. Sleety snow flurries possible though as this air mass over-rides an easterly flow. Upgrades always possible in later runs I suppose..


Now time to sit back and watch the hysteria.

emo72

jaysus lads, yis have the thread flying tonight:pac: was expecting snowmageddon when i saw all me notifications:D

Clonmel1000

sully2010 wrote: »

Ah now here...its looking like hes only a week out with that prediction, what more do you want!? And pretty bang on with with his winter forecast overall.

we'll wait and see what happens next week so.....

Harps

Really can't understand the mentality that the past few weeks have been bland, 'mild muck' etc, probably the most interesting spell of weather we've had since December 2010 for me.

A more interesting ECMWF this evening with potential for undercutting lows, a long way off though and the next 5 days or so don't look too eventful so little to get excited about yet

Sir Arthur Daley

No hurry in buying carrots for snowman so?:rolleyes:

BLIZZARD7

WikiHow wrote: »

No hurry in buying carrots for snowman so?:rolleyes:

orange traffic cones will be more suitable for the snowmen we will be able to build :pac:

All good trends tonight- we need to see consistency in the models now and see this come in to +0hrs.





Dan

maquiladora

The problem with the 12Z ECM is we don't see any proper cold air arriving until 192 hours, this is way off, with a million different ways for it to go wrong by the time you get there, and even when the ECM does get there (for the eastern half of the country anyway) 24 hours later the high to the north is sinking, the air becomes less cold and 24 hours after that it's all over.

This would be a nice chart if we were flooded with -10, -12 uppers :



But what use is it with -2/-4 uppers?



This is as good as the ECM gets.



And 24 hours later the cold air is already fizzling out.



The next day the mild air is pushing up from the south.



Without any proper blocking, we're not going to see any significant kind of cold spell.

Of course things can (and will) change, because the important details are still way off in FI, but as things stand with the models right now I don't find anything too exciting there. Let's see how the models look in another 3 or 4 days.

BLIZZARD7

Harps wrote: »

Really can't understand the mentality that the past few weeks have been bland, 'mild muck' etc, probably the most interesting spell of weather we've had since December 2010 for me.

A more interesting ECMWF this evening with potential for undercutting lows, a long way off though and the next 5 days or so don't look too eventful so little to get excited about yet

There is no denying it has been very interesting weather, but its Winter, not Autumn! I prefer storms in Autumn and cold snowy weather in winter.

The ECM this morning was just as interesting I thought? not too long off really, the blocks are in place at +96hrs. But yes, caution needed, especially as its an easterly.



Dan

BLIZZARD7

Maq your last sentence is exactly the point, why bother looking at 850 temps so far out when we know they will change? there is practically nothing that can go wrong from +144hrs either by the way, the Jet is digging south and the high is propped up. I cant see why you focus on the block sinking in the timeframe after +192hrs when we have just seen dramatic changes at +120hrs over the last 24-48hrs. Also, that would be a very cold surface at +216hrs with slack winds off the continent. As you said there will be many more changes and so im not too put out by a potential breakdown of a potential cold spell way out in FI.

Im expecting the depth of cold to upgrade over the next few runs given the huge upgrades in the last 48 hours.



Dan

Oneiric 3

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

There is no denying it has been very interesting weather, but its Winter, not Autumn! I prefer storms in Autumn and cold snowy weather in winter.

Plenty of freely available databases online to research. Storminess at this time of year is very common and typical winter weather, every bit, if not more so than snow in this country. I will agree though that storminess in Autumn is on the decline, and despite the recent spell, the trend is would seem to be very much downwards for storminess during winter as well.

Some databases that might come in handy:

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-weather-reports.asp
http://eca.knmi.nl/

BLIZZARD7

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Plenty of freely available databases online to research. Storminess at this time of year is very common and typical winter weather, every bit, if not more so than snow in this country. I will agree though that storminess in Autumn is on the decline, and despite the recent spell, the trend is would seem to be very much downwards for storminess during winter as well.

Some databases that might come in handy:

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-weather-reports.asp
http://eca.knmi.nl/

Oh I know its typical and more common in winter than snow, I dont mind a good storm really, Im just more interested in snow and cold at the moment. A snowy storm would be perfect

yes thats a good point, before this season we havent seen successive strong Atlantic storms like that in a long time.


Somewhere in the UK or Ireland will end up with a good dumping of snow next week if that trough disruption comes off.



Dan

kingshankly

Harps wrote: »

Really can't understand the mentality that the past few weeks have been bland, 'mild muck' etc, probably the most interesting spell of weather we've had since December 2010 for me.

A more interesting ECMWF this evening with potential for undercutting lows, a long way off though and the next 5 days or so don't look too eventful so little to get excited about yet

People love bad weather for me last summers heat wave was the most interesting weather as you can actually get out in it and enjoy it

Oneiric 3

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Oh I know its typical and more common in winter than snow, I dont mind a good storm really, Im just more interested in snow and cold at the moment. A snowy storm would be perfect

Would strongly recommend moving to the Alps. Great snow storms there.

patneve2

I like

derekon

Some posters might be interested in the following quote from Mark Vogan, just posted on his Twitter account:

"No suprise to markvoganweather.com subscribers about coming UK cold. Were told back at Christmas. WATCH OUT MID-JAN".

How can Vogan be so confident of anything significant? :rolleyes:

D

Nabber

Ramping time. Nothing like a good ramp. No one ramps like the good folks in here.

Elmer Blooker

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

the 8th of January today. Just saying like.....

thanks a mill for reminding me how old I'm getting!
"It" was 32 years ago today and I remember it

snowstorm445

18z is more progressive so far. Cold air much further away, but ridge of High pressure still builds to our North.

nacho libre

Yes, the gfs delays the arrival of colder air, but its synoptics looks better in the longer term.

i still think we are unlikely to see anything sustained, due to the vortex. we can get cold and snowy conditions with a strong vortex but it's far tricker to do so and doesn't last long. however if we got a week like january 1987, those who like deep easterlies would be likely satisfied.

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Would strongly recommend moving to the Alps. Great snow storms there.

As great as that would be, personally i'd prefer to experience very heavy snowfall at home. I have experienced snowy conditions away from Ireland, but it's just not the same as seeing it at home.

patneve2

nacho libre wrote: »

Yes, the gfs delays the arrival of colder air, but its synoptics looks better in the longer term.

i still think we are unlikely to see anything sustained, due to the vortex. we can get cold and snowy conditions with a strong vortex but it's far tricker to do so and doesn't last long. however if we got a week like january 1987, those who like deep easterlies would be likely satisfied.

More than satisfied

icesnowfrost

Good to see met eireann jumping on the band wagon.

And yr.no hinting at it to

DOCARCH

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Good to see met eireann jumping on the band wagon.

I think that forecast will change soon with latest ECM run just out.

No cigar with the latest ECM run, but, baby steps towards getting some decent cold over Europe (that we can hopefully tap into at some point). A couple of nice low centres off the south coast at the end of the run.

Clonmel1000

In all fairness a bit of cold weather in Ireland in January is hardly earth shattering news. Eventually its bound to happen much like in summer even in a bad summer you will get a good day eventually.

Villain

No mention of any Outlook by Evelyn on the 8am weather forecast on Radio, playing it nice and safe.

Darwin

Looks like easterly wind from next Wednesday with cold rain for most, but no beasterly yet.

dopolahpec

Darwin wrote: »

Looks like easterly wind from next Wednesday with cold rain for most, but no beasterly yet.

If a beasterly is going to come eventually we need to see the right building blocks fall into place.

Lots of encouraging signs still there today. A complex and evolving situation all round.

BLIZZARD7

ECM and GFS are another variation on the same theme today but with the whole pattern further east- this delays the cold by several days. The GEM on the other hand is very cold from +120hrs out and shows there is still time for a shift back to the colder runs.

All we need is a shift back west in the pattern and this is very possible still... All should be more clear by the weekend.

Havent seen UKMO yet*




Dan

average_runner

Cant see this cold reaching us, anytime its marginal we lose out.

BLIZZARD7

ECM OP run is above the Ensemble mean in terms of 850temps with the mean an improvement on last nights run.

Op run



Mean



More runs needed.



Dan