WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

Villain

More like more hope needed, poor runs today.

BLIZZARD7

Villain wrote: »

More like more hope needed, poor runs today.

The UKMO after just seeing it is the only run id call poor- and the others are just some of the many possibilities in the ensembles.. plenty to be happy about in the overall theme of where we are heading.

I cant see how these runs are poor compared to our winter so far...



Dan

Tom Cruises Left Nut

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

The UKMO after just seeing it is the only run id call poor- and the others are just some of the many possibilities in the ensembles.. plenty to be happy about in the overall theme of where we are heading.

I cant see how these runs are poor compared to our winter so far...



Dan

Its noce to have hints of it on the models, there has been pretty much nothing on them up until now !

Its a wait and see and hope situation !

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

As great as that would be, personally i'd prefer to experience very heavy snowfall at home. I have experienced snowy conditions away from Ireland, but it's just not the same as seeing it at home.

I want my time machine

maquiladora

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I want my time machine

Claremorris got its record snowfall from that didn't it? 8 inches.

gerrybhoy

maquiladora wrote: »

Claremorris got its record snowfall from that didn't it? 8 inches.

bet you clare morris was smiling:p

maquiladora

gerrybhoy wrote: »

bet you clare morris was smiling:p

snowstreams

maquiladora wrote:

Claremorris got its record snowfall from that didn't it? 8 inches.

By record snowfall, do you mean record in 24 hours?
During the 2010 freeze it seemed like they had more than 8 inches but it built up slowly over a week or so.

Harps

This would do me nicely, 11 inches in one day in Letterkenny :cool:

dopolahpec

Looking like a slow erosion of the projected easterly has begun, and as is always the case. The 6z GFS has the Scandanavian high pressure subsiding eastwards before any meaty easterly makes the UK never mind Ireland. Will be interesting to see where to from here.

whitebriar

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

The UKMO after just seeing it is the only run id call poor- and the others are just some of the many possibilities in the ensembles.. plenty to be happy about in the overall theme of where we are heading.

I cant see how these runs are poor compared to our winter so far...



Dan

Ah Dan,I gotta admire your tenacity and optimism.
But really,its a game of chance and hopecasting you're involved in there yet.
I could say it's likely something will happen because it did once but it's all academic.

Let's look west as much as east for a while yet Untill something calms down there.
More intense cold in the state's in a week is definitely NOT what we want to see as that will reinvigorate the Atlantic.
That at this early stage will not dive the jet stream south.It will bubble up the whole Atlantic before anything remotely strong enough blocking wise to the north and east has time to develop In My Opinion.

So watch yes but time is needed.
Brief easterlies or northeasters(given there's no cold east on the surface) will be blasted away.

Rebelbrowser

whitebriar wrote: »

Ah Dan,I gotta admire your tenacity and optimism.
But really,its a game of chance and hopecasting you're involved in there yet.
I could say it's likely something will happen because it did once but it's all academic.

Let's look west as much as east for a while yet Untill something calms down there.
More intense cold in the state's in a week is definitely NOT what we want to see as that will reinvigorate the Atlantic.
That at this early stage will not dive the jet stream south.It will bubble up the whole Atlantic before anything remotely strong enough blocking wise to the north and east has time to develop In My Opinion.

So watch yes but time is needed.
Brief easterlies or northeasters(given there's no cold east on the surface) will be blasted away.

You are right that if you look at the hemisphere view this morning's GFS has more unbelieveable cold in the US Northeast in 10 days time. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=252&mode=1&carte=1 There are no purples, let alone blacks, near Europe at that time unfortunately.

Who knows though?

BTW - how do you imbed pictures in your posts? I have tried everything I can think of but they won't paste in....

maquiladora

snowstreams wrote: »

By record snowfall, do you mean record in 24 hours?
During the 2010 freeze it seemed like they had more than 8 inches but it built up slowly over a week or so.

Not sure about 2010, its from the Met Eireann snowfall depth records published in 2012.

snaps

Only gem has any real glimmer of hope. Infact gem is a diamond all the way. Gfs going off the boil too, even for us in eastern Europe to see any real cold. Even here in poland the weather forecast has been downgraded for snow and cold potential. Its almost like April weather here, unreal its so mild and dry.

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

Claremorris got its record snowfall from that didn't it? 8 inches.

I don't know much about how much fell that night but in my vague recollections of this event, it was pretty severe. What memories I have stem from my then newly born baby brother being very ill and feverish throughout the night. The electricity was gone and just remember the sound of the crazy wind and driving snow outside. I better remember the next morning when there seemed to as much snow blasted on the side of the house than on the ground.

I think it is possible that that record of 8" my have been broken in late Dec 2000 in Claremorris. Here in NE Galway at least about 10" of snow fell in just a few hours, but not with the ferocious winds of 'Jan 84. But by way of compensation, we had a lot of thunder instead. It was almost as equally cold as in Dec 2010 but not as long lasting.

@Snowtreams, I think snow lay for a lot of Jan' 84 in a lot of the north & west so it is possible that not all of the 8 inches fell in one night, but I may be wrong on that.

nacho libre

[QUOTE=Oneiric 3;88377467
I think it is possible that that record of 8" my have been broken in late Dec 2000 in Claremorris. Here in NE Galway at least about 10" of snow fell in just a few hours, but not with the ferocious winds of 'Jan 84. But by way of compensation, we had a lot of thunder instead. It was almost as equally cold as in Dec 2010 but not as long lasting.

@Snowtreams, I think snow lay for a lot of Jan' 84 in a lot of the north & west so it is possible that not all of the 8 inches fell in one night, but I may be wrong on that.[/QUOTE]

So it must have been a proper deep easterly in Janaury 1984. I was too young at the time to remember this event. When you say ferocious winds, did it technically qualify as a blizzard? In 2000 we had six inches of lying snow. In December 2010 8 inches fell over a 22 hours period.

If you do happen to get hold of a time machine, let me know so we can go back to 1984 and 1947:D

BLIZZARD7

whitebriar wrote: »

Ah Dan,I gotta admire your tenacity and optimism.
But really,its a game of chance and hopecasting you're involved in there yet.
I could say it's likely something will happen because it did once but it's all academic.

Let's look west as much as east for a while yet Untill something calms down there.
More intense cold in the state's in a week is definitely NOT what we want to see as that will reinvigorate the Atlantic.
That at this early stage will not dive the jet stream south.It will bubble up the whole Atlantic before anything remotely strong enough blocking wise to the north and east has time to develop In My Opinion.

So watch yes but time is needed.
Brief easterlies or northeasters(given there's no cold east on the surface) will be blasted away.

I dont think im hopecasting, Optimistic yes but not anything more- There are signs there that we could end up on the northern side of the lows crossing the atlantic, driving air in from the North East over time-Just look at expected pressure in Rome Below, that will help prop any Scandi high. The main problem is there is no strong signal for high pressure in the Iceland area, if we can get that then we are in a very good place.



I think if next week ends up pear shaped and very wet then it is at least building towards a cold spell in the last third of January.



Dan

BLIZZARD7

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

BTW - how do you imbed pictures in your posts? I have tried everything I can think of but they won't paste in....

Theres a little picture yoke with mountains on it in second line of symbols down above the box you type in when you make a post. You click it and get a pop up box- just paste url of the pic in there. Hope that helps!



Dan

Rebelbrowser

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Theres a little picture yoke with mountains on it in second line of symbols down above the box you type in when you make a post. You click it and get a pop up box- just paste url of the pic in there. Hope that helps!



Dan

Thanks Dan (and Lumi who pm'ed me). Sorry for clogging up the thread but just in case others are in same boat as me, the difficulty is that the row of icons in question does not appear when I go to reply. No idea why. Anyway you can get around this by typing after it. Just to prove to me I have it working I attach my favourite chart from this morning.....

nacho libre

What are the verification stats for the Gem model. I thought i read over on the netweather forum that it has been doing very well so far this winter.

cherryghost

I've been following GEM for the storms and it's been more accurate than GFS, GFS tends to dramatize the solutions a bit.

Harps

There's a graph somewhere that shows the verification stats of all the main models, can't remember where it is now and don't know if it's overall verification or for a certain area. Either way GEM is usually vying for 3rd place with GFS and behind the European and UK models.

I'd suspect GEM is better when our weather is dominated by what's coming off the North American continent rather than an easterly though I've nothing to back that up

patneve2

Potential is definitely still there, albeit less than previous runs. For example, this GFS 06z is still a very good chart in my opinion (160 hr).



The outcome will probably not be good for people who like snow and cold (it's easier to be right if you forecast no snow in Ireland) but there is still ample time for change.

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

When you say ferocious winds, did it technically qualify as a blizzard? In 2000 we d.

If you do happen to get hold of a time machine, let me know so we can go back to 1984 and 1947:D

I have no idea I just remember they were ferocious, but that is just anecdotal.

Will get to work on my own time machine and will give you a shout when it is complete. But I insist that the first stop will have to be 1917; both January and April saw colossal snow events. Would be incredible to get hi-res digital photos of this.

Article from The Irish Times on the late Jan 1917 snow storms.

JP85

Maybe we should all downplay whatever might happen and hopefully that way something actually might happen

TheMilkyPirate

JP85 wrote: »

Maybe we should all downplay whatever might happen and hopefully that way something actually might happen

It's been tried before to no avail. :pac:

dacogawa

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I have no idea I just remember they were ferocious, but that is just anecdotal.

Will get to work on my own time machine and will give you a shout when it is complete. But I insist that the first stop will have to be 1917; both January and April saw colossal snow events. Would be incredible to get hi-res digital photos of this.

If you do get that time machine sorted come back now & tell us if the charts are telling fibs about next week.

Waiting...

DOCARCH

JP85 wrote: »

Maybe we should all downplay whatever might happen and hopefully that way something actually might happen

From my years on here, and years of model watching, the key thing is to expect nothing, then you will never be disappointed! Only get excited when there is actually white fluffy stuff falling from the sky over you.

DOCARCH

12z GFS....going nowhere really. :pac: Let's wait for ECM!

Cogsy88

12z GFS run is bad news for cold lovers. It jus never reaches here.