WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

cherryghost

All the charts have taken a step back now, as expected.

whitebriar

cherryghost wrote: »

All the charts have taken a step back now, as expected.

They were never forward in the first place as intuition says if the polar vortex is dropping into the state's, it won't be doing similar this side.
Computer programmes like the gfs etc do not make our weather the Atlantic does.
If the Atlantic is quiet,the weather from abnormal directions can advance our way.

This is not a dig at anyone here but don't be blinded by nwp mirages like many people on netweather are.
Look at the bigger picture, look west and see what's going on out there.Warm water delivers much more energy than land at this time of the year.
If another chunk of pv dives into America as is likely next week.Then our chances of weather from the ne or east will be set back Untill about early February -and that's assuming polar air is cut off from the western Atlantic in 2 weeks time,it probably wont be.

rickdangerouss

Nails and coffin people... No near SSW and now this news, with 8+ weeks max of winter-ish weather left.

cherryghost

whitebriar wrote: »

They were never forward in the first place as intuition says if the polar vortex is dropping into the state's, it won't be doing similar this side.
Computer programmes like the gfs etc do not make our weather the Atlantic does.
If the Atlantic is quiet,the weather from abnormal directions can advance our way.

This is not a dig at anyone here but don't be blinded by nwp mirages like many people on netweather are.
Look at the bigger picture, look west and see what's going on out there.Warm water delivers much more energy than land at this time of the year.
If another chunk of pv dives into America as is likely next week.Then our chances of weather from the ne or east will be set back Untill about early February -and that's assuming polar air is cut off from the western Atlantic in 2 weeks time,it probably wont be.

I wasn't blinded, I merely expected the downturn as always.

Cogsy88

I'd only give it five or six weeks, while it may snow after that the sun will be gaining to much strength and won't last on the ground for more then a few hours.

Annuv

whitebriar wrote: »

Ah Dan,I gotta admire your tenacity and optimism.
But really,its a game of chance and hopecasting you're involved in there yet.
I could say it's likely something will happen because it did once but it's all academic.

Let's look west as much as east for a while yet Untill something calms down there.
More intense cold in the state's in a week is definitely NOT what we want to see as that will reinvigorate the Atlantic.
That at this early stage will not dive the jet stream south.It will bubble up the whole Atlantic before anything remotely strong enough blocking wise to the north and east has time to develop In My Opinion.

So watch yes but time is needed.
Brief easterlies or northeasters(given there's no cold east on the surface) will be blasted away.

Hi Whitebriar,
would you mind expanding upon the highlighted sentence in a little more detail, for the meteorologically ignorant but curious, like me - thanks

Clonmel1000

So no sign of snow then? Imagine that....still we have 3 days left of the snow armageddon period that was forecast in November!!!

patneve2

Pity that the GFS has taken a wrong turn but the situation is still unfolding with many different possibilities open. Expecting an ECM downgrade, but it probably won't be as bad as the GFS.

pistolpetes11

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

So no sign of snow then? Imagine that....still we have 3 days left of the snow armageddon period that was forecast in November!!!

IF YOU HAVE NOTHING OF VALUE TO ADD BAR LITTLE SNIPE'S DONT BOTHER POSTING , I HAVE WATCHED YOUR LAST FEW POST'S , YOU WILL BE GETTING INFRACTED IF YOU KEEP IT UP

BLIZZARD7

ECM is better than UKMO and GFS at +120hrs but looks very similar to UKMO by +144hrs with a big circular low instead of having it disrupt and slide south east. Still time for improvement though as alot can change 6 days out.


I dont see North American cold as a huge problem WB and thats a brave call basically writing off the rest of January and possibly start of February- you may be right but I dont see how you can forecast that far ahead when the models are stuggling at day 5.

There are also signs of a strat warming appearing on the models, this in addition to current wave activity may just do a nice job finishing off the PV.

Overall there have been fairly big downgrades today but with scope to rebound over the next 48 hours.



Dan

whitebriar

Annuv wrote: »

Hi Whitebriar,
would you mind expanding upon the highlighted sentence in a little more detail, for the meteorologically ignorant but curious, like me - thanks

Basically you mix intense cold air exiting the state's with warmer air over the Atlantic and it's a recipe for storms like the last month.
These barrel north/northheast across the Atlantic blocking any chance of our weather coming from our best cold direction, the East or north east .
We are the part of Europe first to miss out as that westerly weather nearly always can go as far as western England even if there's a cold spell in Europe.
Currently in this spell it's reached as far as Russia.

YouTookMyName

Is it possible to not see freezing temperatures wind chill/ground frost at all this winter?

whitebriar

@ Dan,I am not writing off winter,I am just describing what happens and there's no reason so far to suggest it won't continue to happen.

Saying the models are struggling past 5 days is the wrong way to look at it in my opinion.
They simply cannot get detail and detail is important to Ireland.

Regarding my at least February now,that's a little over 2 weeks away.

Not a long time and I am expecting the Atlantic to be king in those 2 weeks especially if more polar vortex drops south out of Canada eventually feeding storms in it.

BLIZZARD7

YouTookMyName wrote: »

Is it possible to not see freezing temperatures wind chill/ground frost at all this winter?

Where are you? Widespread ground frost tonight with an airfrost in places. Saturday will see widespread airfrost too. Yes its been fairly rare this winter compared with our recent winters, unlikely to go through a whole winter without ground frost.



Dan

icesnowfrost

Great to see Simon keeling saying confidence is high for a cold snap.

Gem and the ecmwf ens both trying to put in cold pools thst could give us snow on the south and east around the 17th. Looking towards the end of the month it looks better.

dopolahpec

whitebriar wrote: »

They were never forward in the first place as intuition says if the polar vortex is dropping into the state's, it won't be doing similar this side.
Computer programmes like the gfs etc do not make our weather the Atlantic does.
If the Atlantic is quiet,the weather from abnormal directions can advance our way.

This is not a dig at anyone here but don't be blinded by nwp mirages like many people on netweather are.
Look at the bigger picture, look west and see what's going on out there.Warm water delivers much more energy than land at this time of the year.
If another chunk of pv dives into America as is likely next week.Then our chances of weather from the ne or east will be set back Untill about early February -and that's assuming polar air is cut off from the western Atlantic in 2 weeks time,it probably wont be.

I don't think it's a matter of the Atlantic being any more or less invigorated than previously, but more about how that energy in the Atlantic was poorly modelled. At first modelled to cleanly undercut the developing Scandi high (which is still set to develop by looks of things). But now it looks like a right mess.

People are more realistic here than on Netweather. No harm in a ramp. Nobody got hurt and importantly nobody called snow for Ireland really, just attention to developing interest The building blocks are certainly still better for cold today than they were a few days ago.

Funnily on netweather the irish guys often seem to call the end of these phantom cold spells first. Then get jumped for it lol. It's quite logical as it all starts to collapse eastward Ireland loses out first triggering patrinising accusations of here we go Irish IMBY from the english and what do you know? 24 hours later the phantom cold is flicking the bird at the Norfolk Broads from across the North Sea.

BLIZZARD7

whitebriar wrote: »

@ Dan,I am not writing off winter,I am just describing what happens and there's no reason so far to suggest it won't continue to happen.

Saying the models are struggling past 5 days is the wrong way to look at it in my opinion.
They simply cannot get detail and detail is important to Ireland.

Regarding my at least February now,that's a little over 2 weeks away.

Not a long time and I am expecting the Atlantic to be king in those 2 weeks especially if more polar vortex drops south out of Canada eventually feeding storms in it.

There are roughly 3 weeks left in January, no?

Detail in the pattern could make a huge difference in our weather though- with us never too far away from cold uppers and copious amounts of precipitation. I would say the next two weeks look very synoptically different to the past two weeks based on current models, would you not say the same?

Also the ECM is weird tonight, not saying its wrong but it doesent know what to do with that low in the atlantic, it just stalls, fills and drops to our south into iberia...




Dan

YouTookMyName

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Where are you? Widespread ground frost tonight with an airfrost in places. Saturday will see widespread airfrost too. Yes its been fairly rare this winter compared with our recent winters, unlikely to go through a whole winter without ground frost.



Dan

Home is Mayo,

But i'm Currently in south west england.

whitebriar

Dan,we know what's going to happen in the next 4 days fairly well so subtract that from the remaining 21 days and you have 17.

Take the next cold plunge into North America 3 or 4 days later and blow it out into the Atlantic and you shall have more storms which would rule the roost for as long as they are being fed.

Greeny highs remember need Waa not Caa.

What may happen stateside won't add Waa.
It can if it pans out as expected only aid a destruction of any block that tries to build out of northern Russia or Scandinavia.

Of course what I'm thinking might happen is predicated on that pv dropping into the state's.
If we're lucky it won't.
So we must look west too as well as east and North.

BLIZZARD7

I dont think the PV will drop into the states again as soon as you suggest, I think by the time it does we will have a robust block to our north.. there are many possibilities either way and I for one think its very interesting watching it all develop, much better than zonality anyway.



Dan

whitebriar

Lol it's interesting regardless.
But if Mr Pv drops into the state's that's exactly what we will have ..Zonality

Oneiric 3

The last 2 frames of the ECM 12z don't look too bad at all with the potential for a more continental type feed than previous runs showed. Although 850's look fairly warm, it would be still nice and crispy feeling as opposed to the dank and unpleasant nothing chill suggested by earlier runs (and of which we have endured far too much of in the last few winters)

I'd take this willingly if there are no decent storms on offer.. which is why it probably won't pan like that. :rolleyes:

BLIZZARD7

whitebriar wrote: »

Lol it's interesting regardless.
But if Mr Pv drops into the state's that's exactly what we will have ..Zonality

Not if there is a nice high in the atlantic with the PV nowhere to be seen in greenland, okay thats not quite whats projected but anything can happen. I think zonality is fairly unlikely either way with us just getting out of a long run of that pattern. I am also encouraged by the strat forecasts- that may deal with the PV for us.


Dan

whitebriar

We could go on all night Dan but we won't.
I don't see an Atlantic high or a greeny high without warm air affection to feed it and it looks like the opposite is going to rule the roost for now.
The effect of a start warm would definitely be into February so min a month away tbh
We'll have a 2 week window after that beyond which cold is a nuisance and costly ala spring 2013.
So there need to be monumental change not just weak Fi mirages imho.

We'll see.

bilston

Cogsy88 wrote: »

I'd only give it five or six weeks, while it may snow after that the sun will be gaining to much strength and won't last on the ground for more then a few hours.

The people of Antrim and Down beg to differ after their experiences of late March 2013!

BLIZZARD7

whitebriar wrote: »

We could go on all night Dan but we won't.
I don't see an Atlantic high or a greeny high without warm air affection to feed it and it looks like the opposite is going to rule the roost for now.
The effect of a start warm would definitely be into February so min a month away tbh
We'll have a 2 week window after that beyond which cold is a nuisance and costly ala spring 2013.
So there need to be monumental change not just weak Fi mirages imho.

We'll see.

Yep we will have to agree to differ. Instant downwelling warmings have been known to happen and there is already wave activity having an impact right now. I wouldnt say no to a second half of feb and a cold march like 1947 actually, I can understand people might not like that idea though.

Also as mentioned above there was an immense dump of snow up north late in the season- that was very close to being a big snow event down to Dublin/wicklow too but ended up just too warm in the end.


Dan

whitebriar

Very close,if's maybe's buts etc are not forecasts mind you As long as the casual passer by realises this!
The past page's and most of the time here,the discussion is a theory only.


That's why this discussion is in the model thread.Because an event is not forthcoming based on present information. Therefore there is no forecast of snowy weather or noteable cold in the next week yet and no event thread.
That's how weak any indication is at present.

patneve2

whitebriar wrote: »

Very close,if's maybe's buts etc are not forecasts mind you As long as the casual passer by realises this!
The past page's and most of the time here,the discussion is a theory only.


That's why this discussion is in the model thread.Because an event is not forthcoming based on present information. Therefore there is no forecast of snowy weather or noteable cold in the next week yet and no event thread.
That's how weak any indication is at present.

Not related to your post but just curious, how much snow did you get in Feb 1991?

BLIZZARD7

Interesting 18z GFS- shows yet another solution with a much more elongated trough in the atlantic at just day 4 when compared to the 12z. As I said earlier, The models are very unclear at present.

WB- there would be an event page if yesterdays runs had carried on today with a similar tune.



Dan

Blizzard 2010

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Great to see Simon keeling saying confidence is high for a cold snap.

Gem and the ecmwf ens both trying to put in cold pools thst could give us snow on the south and east around the 17th. Looking towards the end of the month it looks better.

Possibly the models are having a wobble.We will know more tomorrow