WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

snaps

the 0z GFS has gone back to Atlantic domination. Its completely different from the other models (Gem & ECM) even upto +96 (Whole of Europe, which is important for cold to build). I haven't seen the latest ecm yet as that seems slow to come out.

The last few days on GFS, ECM and GEM (The best) had cold building in East Europe,but that is disappearing now with the familiar southerly flow from Africa right up into Scandinavia. Perhaps just a wobble on the GFS but we will see what the ECM says.

whitebriar

patneve2 wrote: »

Not related to your post but just curious, how much snow did you get in Feb 1991?

About 8 inches maybe more iirc,freezing day temps for most of the day lasted over a a week.
Most of the snow that time fell in a particularly large snow shower train from the Bee hive south to about camolin along the N11 from the Irish sea.
February is an ok month for snow as is early March but you need a pretty strong and stern source as time goes on and it's definitely a nuisance on several levels(heating and economy) after that.

fontenoy7

Last March and early April brought heavy snow on three or four consecutive days to Dublin 15 with a lot of lying snow. Roads in The Dublin mountains were blacked for over s wee last March was bitter. Dublin and Wicklow always do Weill with an easterly or north easterly wind ( snow wise)

whitebriar

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

WB- there would be an event page if yesterdays runs had carried on today with a similar tune.



Dan

That's the problem I have here.The word 'if' is always coming into it.
While that's there,it's just theory and sadly if you like snow,pie in the sky.
From what I'm seeing , I remain unconvinced that any useful cold spell is imminent.
You can't ignore what's going on in the western Atlantic, it has a much bigger bearing on things than anything else for Ireland as I keep saying.
Withness the amount of times cold spells in Europe at best reach Kent and we stay under Atlantic influence.
Today,Europe isn't even cold and the indications it might get cold soon are weak enough(that has to change) and we have indications of an ongoing strong Atlantic.
Not exactly building blocks for a cold spell in my opinion as I keep saying. So yeah,it's likely to be at least February now.
No renewed severe cold plunge into the state's would be a help.

snaps

Well we have cooled down over night. We have snow for first time since November. OK, we are in mountains at 675m, the sticking snow line is about 800m currently. Good news for the ski slopes here, which were crying out for snow and for it at least to get cold enough for snow machines to work. (Southern poland)

Macy0161

fontenoy7 wrote: »

Roads in The Dublin mountains were blacked for over s wee last March was bitter. Dublin and Wicklow always do Weill with an easterly or north easterly wind ( snow wise)

That was pretty high up though. There wasn't too many days where the snow lay long enough for me to get out and make my children play with me in the snow play with the children in the snow at around 230m asl. Anything overnight or in the morning was generally gone by the afternoon iirc. I'm not dismissing it - I'd settle for that type of "event" over no snow at all, but the sun at that stage was pretty efficient at melting it!

dopolahpec

Hold tight lads, there's a few solid weeks left, and I see mega potential in charts like this still for something decent to evolve rapidly and slap us dead in the face with some snow and cold

arctictree

Charts are doing a lot of flopping around but one things for sure is that next weekend (18/19) looks interesting. It all depends on where that low decides to go...

snowstreams

I just the weather from met eireann this eve. They said there could be snow flurries in the west.
What do people on here think? Should be cold enough anyway.

derekon

A quick update on a possible Sudden Stratospheric Warming event (SSW) noting any warming usually helps to set up blocked patterns and aid the movement of cold and snow towards Ireland.

In short, its looking very poor for cold lovers. The Vortex, after its recent visit to the United States, is now forecast to reorganize itself over the coming days. It is then forecast to remain strong for the coming weeks so it looks very likely that Ireland will fall back into the default Atlantic muck of wind & rain until the end of January. We will then have about 4 weeks left of this winter.

Anyway looking forward to the summer of 2014?

D

Gonzo

just looks like the usuall cold forever being pushed back till it's too late. Snow in March and April just does not work for me as you have to be up at the crack of dawn to see it on the ground before it melts rapidly. I know Northern Ireland faired exceptionally well late in the season last year but the chances of that happening again that late in the year are very slim indeed. The next 4 weeks are crucial for us to have a decent chance of proper So snow. So far this winter is borderline the worst winter for cold ive ever lived through, we havent even had a single day where frost has settled in shaded patchs of the garden all day long, noting but a few marginal morning frosts so far and some wet snow falling before christmas one afternoon on soaking wet ground.!!

Its also the first winter where I havent had my hopes dashed/crushed as there has really been nothing to get excited over just yet and the first winter where I havent had to look on in envy where places closeby have had decent snow, no snow throughout most of Europe either.

derekon

Gonzo wrote: »

just looks like the usuall cold forever being pushed back till it's too late. Snow in March and April just does not work for me as you have to be up at the crack of dawn to see it on the ground before it melts rapidly. I know Northern Ireland faired exceptionally well late in the season last year but the chances of that happening again that late in the year are very slim indeed. The next 4 weeks are crucial for us to have a decent chance of proper So snow. So far this winter is borderline the worst winter for cold ive ever lived through, we havent even had a single day where frost has settled in shaded patchs of the garden all day long, noting but a few marginal morning frosts so far and some wet snow falling before christmas one afternoon on soaking wet ground.!!

Its also the first winter where I havent had my hopes dashed/crushed as there has really been nothing to get excited over just yet and the first winter where I havent had to look on in envy where places closeby have had decent snow, no snow throughout most of Europe either.

Shocking is probably the best word to describe this winter Gonzo. The ongoing absence of frost is quite astonishing as is the lack of snow cover throughout Europe today the 10th January 2014. I can't ever remember it being this bad from a cold perspective. There was talk of an easterly earlier this week over on Netweather however the models have fully backed off that solution now and toys are being chucked out of pram at an alarming rate over on the NW boards at the moment. I for one don't rate our chances for snow this winter. I find mt's forecasts to be very good and he is predicting a milder than average February so my money is on him!

Lucreto

I am writing off this winter at this stage. We are running out of time now and hope next winter is a lot better of now.

I just hope for a cool summer to make up for it.

Smidge

Snowing in Cavan :eek:

john why

Smidge wrote: »

Snowing in Cavan :eek:

Bull****;-)

Smidge

IMG_1559.JPG

Snow I tells, ya !!!

icesnowfrost

Put another photo up with today's date in the snow

Smidge

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Put another photo up with today's date in the snow

I'm in bed now so not going back out
It was a couple of nice flurries but stopped now(window is as far as I'm going:D)

The temperature dropped like a stone, I was outside 10 mins before and it was ok and then went back out and it was baltic and then ninja snow!

vicwatson

The Daffodils are happy, it's all I'm saying.

mountainy man

We got a little dusting of snow too. would be more if more precp about, currently 0.2 C

M.T. Cranium

On the larger scale, things don't look all that promising. However, this current situation is a bit like mid-February of last winter when cold was trying to move towards Ireland but was being held back by Atlantic systems of about the same strength as we see at the moment.

So possibly we could infer from that, a much colder interval could develop in less than a month, or at least within a month, as was the case last year. This would be ahead of last winter's pace (albeit there had already been some cold weather before the period I have referenced). It could mean some serious cold and snow later February and early March, still running 2-3 weeks ahead of last winter's outbreak (which was technically mostly in spring).

Also there remains the slim chance that the models have shifted too far and the cold will win out next week. I don't think this is the case looking at the guidance today.

Sir Arthur Daley

Time to dust of the BBQ?

snaps

It has to be least snowy winter in Europe fullstop. Its been so mild here, that the bears are coming out of hibernation in the Tatra mountains (Poland/Slovakia). I do see the northen part of Scandinavia is cold now, some very low temps in lapland now (-35) in one station report.

But with more Atlantic depressions set to arrive the Irish shores this week, yet more warm air will be dragged up into Europe.

Speak Now

We've had snow from Easterlies 4 of the 5 winters so we've been well spoiled recently when you remember what went the previous 2 decades. Still early January but if it doesn't happen this year you can blame me as I made a deal with the weather gods to sacrifice this winter for a good summer 2013.

whitebriar

This is normal Irish winter weather.
Lugnaquilla is covered in snow this morning, it's crisp and clear here near Arklow and there's a good view of it.
Roads down here still very icy too.I saw one crash and I was taking a bit of sliding on one hill.

We have had about 6 frosts this winter here.

mike65

Definitely the frostiest night of winter so far down here - still only 2.7

nacho libre

Well, given that February is traditionally the optimum time for snow in Ireland( just ask any farmer) a week of snowy weather in February would do me fine. Our expectations really have been skewed by recent winters where the snow gods smiled on us.

nacho libre

snaps wrote: »

It has to be least snowy winter in Europe fullstop. Its been so mild here, that the bears are coming out of hibernation in the Tatra mountains (Poland/Slovakia). I do see the northen part of Scandinavia is cold now, some very low temps in lapland now (-35) in one station report.

But with more Atlantic depressions set to arrive the Irish shores this week, yet more warm air will be dragged up into Europe.

It seems to me once the polar vortex gets extremely cold, it must go the other way eventually( leaving aside the natural obliteration of it in April), as a result it could well be eastern Europe will get quite cold, maybe even severely so, in the weeks ahead.

patneve2

Scandinavia is finally cooling down after very mild temps in December and early January. Western Russia should follow suit in a day or two. Agree with everybody here, even if we haven't seen shiftless high pressure over Europe this winter, from a snow point of view this winter is comparable to the terrible 89/90 and 06/07. Will definitely change sometime in February (and probably into March), but if Ireland is hit or not we do not know :rolleyes:

snaps

patneve2 wrote: »

Scandinavia is finally cooling down after very mild temps in December and early January. Western Russia should follow suit in a day or two. Agree with everybody here, even if we haven't seen shiftless high pressure over Europe this winter, from a snow point of view this winter is comparable to the terrible 89/90 and 06/07. Will definitely change sometime in February (and probably into March), but if Ireland is hit or not we do not know :rolleyes:

Yes Finland especially cold now. I saw temperatures at 13.00 my time (14.00 there) there was a lot of -15 and below temperatures.