WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

ninebeanrows

Nights are closing in fast now, the silly season is almost here

Lucreto

Indeed

35 days until the hour changes and back to long dark nights.

Nabber

maquiladora wrote: »

And in fairness that would be a typical Irish winter and statistically has a much higher probability of happening rather than another 2009/2010.

You couldn't be further from the truth.

Statistically 2009/10 winters happen more often. It's just since records began we have had unusually mild winters.

Let me draw your attention to some cave art found in Cavan of all places. The art work is a bit crude. But you can make out the details.

This one dates back to 5,500bc, you can see the Cavan mountains in there. Scientists believe we had so much snow, the weight flattened the mountains. Science doesn't lie.



And this one here which dates back to 4,500bc
Look at this poor fellow, frozen to death. Cavemen knew the dangers, this guy was most likely homeless cave man. At least he went out with a smile. No doubt enjoying the very thing that killed him.




So people who come in here predicting no extreme snow event. Take your informed educated prediction some where else.
History doesn't lie.....

Blizzard 2010

Nabber wrote: »

You couldn't be further from the truth.

Statistically 2009/10 winters happen more often. It's just since records began we have had unusually mild winters.

Let me draw your attention to some cave art found in Cavan of all places. The art work is a bit crude. But you can make out the details.

This one dates back to 5,500bc, you can see the Cavan mountains in there. Scientists believe we had so much snow, the weight flattened the mountains. Science doesn't lie.



And this one here which dates back to 4,500bc
Look at this poor fellow, frozen to death. Cavemen knew the dangers, this guy was most likely homeless cave man. At least he went out with a smile. No doubt enjoying the very thing that killed him.




So people who come in here predicting no extreme snow event. Take your informed educated prediction some where else.
History doesn't lie.....

maquiladora

I'm sorry, but thats not Cavan.

It's Monaghan.

Lumi

The People v Winter

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKy2lLNQYrI

Enjoy There's even a few clips from Ireland

Lucreto

Lumi wrote: »

The People v Winter

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKy2lLNQYrI

Enjoy There's even a few clips from Ireland

Ha I know it is bad but I would love to see this type of weather. Most of the cars slipping looks like they are in residential areas I just hope the main roads would be better.

MENTAL NOTE park in driveway if we do get heavy snow after seeing those cars and knowing my neighbours.

eskimocat

Only one word springs to mind watching that.... OUCH!!!!!!!!!!!

Blizzard 2010

Lucreto wrote: »

Ha I know it is bad but I would love to see this type of weather. Most of the cars slipping looks like they are in residential areas I just hope the main roads would be better.

MENTAL NOTE park in driveway if we do get heavy snow after seeing those cars and knowing my neighbours.

And dont drive to fast;)

Blizzard 2010

CFS has reverted back to a colder scenario

Vudgie

I gave this thread a thought when I visited Alaska recently.

A guy was telling me 'oh its not too bad here we get 10 feet of snow in the winter so its fine, up in the ice fields there is 10 times that amount'.

I refrained from mentioning that friends of mine were 'snowed in' in a couple of cm!!!!;)

jaffusmax

I am really hoping against hope that we will have clear frosty nights with snow lying during this event late Nov in to early Dec. Would be magical!


http://earthsky.org/space/big-sun-diving-comet-ison-might-be-spectacular-in-2013

'Comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) has been the most talked-about comet of 2013. When discovered in late 2012, it was said to have the potential to become a striking object visible to the eye alone around the time of its perihelion – or closest point to the sun – on November 28, 2013'

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

CFS has reverted back to a colder scenario

Will be mild in 24hr again :P:pac:

Nabber

Weather wise our winters are interesting in fairness.

People just want snow. But there is much more too it.

I intend to enjoy int either way. I'd like a dry winter this year. Temps don't bother me. But Dry would be just nice.

maquiladora

I haven't looked, but I bet there is some real eye candy on the CFS February charts this morning with this kind of blocking. Will probably have reverted back to mild again by this afternoon though.

Tindie

Exacta Weather updated the winter forcast (Sorry if it was already posted) and this weekend forcast as well

The coming days will bring some quite extensive cloud cover for many parts of the country, although some brighter spells will develop in parts to the south and east of the country.

There will also be some periods of fine rain and showers developing in places, especially in parts to the far north and west of the country. As we head into the weekend, a surge of thunderstorm activity will initially break out across parts of the south, in particular, in parts of the south-west and Wales, before spreading northwards to other parts of the country. The intensity of the storms and expected rainfall may also bring the risk of some surface or flash-flooding in places.

The heavy rain will also be accompanied by some strong winds throughout this weekend, especially in coastal areas to the south of the country. Areas to the north are likely to see the best of any drier and brighter conditions developing under variable cloud cover.

The unsettled theme and further periods of rain and strong winds will also continue into next week and the start of October, with the best of any drier and brighter spells developing in parts to the east of the country. It will also feel quite warm at times for the start of October, especially in parts of southern and eastern England.

However, it is likely to turn progressively cooler for most as we advance throughout October, especially towards the end of the month and into the start of November.

This will bring the risk of some significant snow across higher ground in parts of the north for this part of the forecasting period.

There is also the additional risk of some snow to lower levels of the country in this part of the forecasting period and into the early part of November, some parts of the south may even see some snow falling in places for the second consecutive year in October and the early part of November.

Widespread frosts and some dense fog patches are also to be expected for this period too.

There is also likely to be some further periods of wet and stormy weather conditions for the British Isles in October and November, which will also be accompanied by some very strong and potentially damaging winds at times, in particular, throughout October.

Stormy October followed by a cold and maybe snow november , sounds too perfect , My fingers are crossed for this

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

That's the UK (and Ireland?) long range forecast if anyone is wondering. See here.

whitebriar

Exacta ? Isn't that james madden? why do people still post proven codswallop. If we were to go by him,we'd still be digging out the snow from 2011.... (yeah that really snowy winter...) Another snake oil salesman.

jaffusmax

I wonder if MT's will continue on with this line of thought!


"Roger J Smith

Posted 18 July 2013 - 21:40
No worries, at least we tried to fix it up. I ran the winter 2013-14 part of my research model after spending a couple of hours checking out the input (if a column in the excel file ends the factor stops chipping into the overall model). The output looks milder than any winter since 2008 anyway, but there is a cold spell in mid-January. Otherwise most of the season looks rather mild. Will do a lot more work on this forecast before October, so that's just a very preliminary thought about winter 2013-14. Posted elsewhere my thoughts on the autumn ahead."

http://http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/page-19#entry2740758

Iancar29

Thats its Mr Block... you keep showing up sitting down nicely there over Greenland, thats it ...

Blizzard 2010

jaffusmax wrote: »

I wonder if MT's will continue on with this line of thought!


"Roger J Smith

Posted 18 July 2013 - 21:40
No worries, at least we tried to fix it up. I ran the winter 2013-14 part of my research model after spending a couple of hours checking out the input (if a column in the excel file ends the factor stops chipping into the overall model). The output looks milder than any winter since 2008 anyway, but there is a cold spell in mid-January. Otherwise most of the season looks rather mild. Will do a lot more work on this forecast before October, so that's just a very preliminary thought about winter 2013-14. Posted elsewhere my thoughts on the autumn ahead."



http://http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/page-19#entry2740758

that was back last July, things have twisted and turned since then.

jaffusmax

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

that was back last July, things have twisted and turned since then.

Exactly! It will be interesting to see how MT's forecast will take these developments into account!

Kippure

Whats out on the web at the moment....the MADNESS BEGINS AGAIN...


Meteorologists Point To Signs Of Another Upcoming “Nasty Winter For Europe” – Would Be Spectacular Sixth In A Row! - See more at

http://notrickszone.com/2013/09/09/meteorologists-point-to-signs-of-another-upcoming-nasty-winter-for-europe-would-be-spectacular-sixth-in-a-row/

Bastardi’s / Jung’s Initial Winter Speculation Morphs Into “A Killer 2014-Winter Forecast” – Fear Spreads Across Europe! - See more at:

http://notrickszone.com/2013/09/26/bastardis-jungs-initial-winter-speculation-morphs-into-a-killer-2014-winter-forecast-fear-spreads-across-europe/

Another brutal winter for Europe?

http://iceagenow.info/2013/09/brutal-winter-europe/

jaffusmax

Kippure wrote: »

Whats out on the web at the moment....the MADNESS BEGINS AGAIN...


Meteorologists Point To Signs Of Another Upcoming “Nasty Winter For Europe” – Would Be Spectacular Sixth In A Row! - See more at

http://notrickszone.com/2013/09/09/meteorologists-point-to-signs-of-another-upcoming-nasty-winter-for-europe-would-be-spectacular-sixth-in-a-row/

Bastardi’s / Jung’s Initial Winter Speculation Morphs Into “A Killer 2014-Winter Forecast” – Fear Spreads Across Europe! - See more at:

http://notrickszone.com/2013/09/26/bastardis-jungs-initial-winter-speculation-morphs-into-a-killer-2014-winter-forecast-fear-spreads-across-europe/

Another brutal winter for Europe?

http://iceagenow.info/2013/09/brutal-winter-europe/

Can't wait to feel that cold on my face

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maquiladora

Kippure wrote: »

Whats out on the web at the moment....the MADNESS BEGINS AGAIN...


Meteorologists Point To Signs Of Another Upcoming “Nasty Winter For Europe” – Would Be Spectacular Sixth In A Row! - See more at

http://notrickszone.com/2013/09/09/meteorologists-point-to-signs-of-another-upcoming-nasty-winter-for-europe-would-be-spectacular-sixth-in-a-row/

Bastardi’s / Jung’s Initial Winter Speculation Morphs Into “A Killer 2014-Winter Forecast” – Fear Spreads Across Europe! - See more at:

http://notrickszone.com/2013/09/26/bastardis-jungs-initial-winter-speculation-morphs-into-a-killer-2014-winter-forecast-fear-spreads-across-europe/

Another brutal winter for Europe?

http://iceagenow.info/2013/09/brutal-winter-europe/

"Fear Spreads Across Europe!" .... "iceagenow.info"

Ah lads... :rolleyes:

Kippure

maquiladora wrote: »

"Fear Spreads Across Europe!" .... "iceagenow.info"

Ah lads... :rolleyes:

Its the "Smell of Fear Really"......:D

Elmer Blooker

Kippure wrote: »

Whats out on the web at the moment....the MADNESS BEGINS AGAIN...


Meteorologists Point To Signs Of Another Upcoming “Nasty Winter For Europe” – Would Be Spectacular Sixth In A Row! - See more at

http://notrickszone.com/2013/09/09/meteorologists-point-to-signs-of-another-upcoming-nasty-winter-for-europe-would-be-spectacular-sixth-in-a-row/

Bastardi’s / Jung’s Initial Winter Speculation Morphs Into “A Killer 2014-Winter Forecast” – Fear Spreads Across Europe! - See more at:

http://notrickszone.com/2013/09/26/bastardis-jungs-initial-winter-speculation-morphs-into-a-killer-2014-winter-forecast-fear-spreads-across-europe/

Another brutal winter for Europe?

http://iceagenow.info/2013/09/brutal-winter-europe/

It may still be t-shirt weather but let the silly season begin and why not?

Kippure

Joe bastardy has been going on for a couple of years that 2013 and 2014 winter would be the big one for Europe., even when he was at weatheronline and his weekly monthly videos would mention it.

Been looking for what he has been saying presently for this winter, cant find much.

Has anyone else found out much about what he is saying for this winter?

Stella Virgo

A white December, but no snow on Christmas Day
Monday, September 16, 2013
It’ll be a white December, but no snow on Christmas Day, according to long-range weather guru Ken Ring.

By Lynn Kelliher
The New Zealander, who predicted the deadly Christchurch earthquake and Ireland’s arctic winter in 2010, also forecast the country’s record-breaking July heat wave with uncanny accuracy back in January.

The TV forecaster, who uses the moon, sun and tidal activity to make his forecasts, expects snow in Ireland in December but we may just miss out on a white Christmas.

“Some southern areas may get isolated heavier falls but these are not expected to be widespread. There will be a sudden downward plunge into sub-zeros in the last few days of November. The first serious cold spell is in the last few days of November with the possibility of widespread snow on or near the last day.

“December precipitation comes mostly in the first 12 days and after Boxing Day, so it should be mostly dry but cold across the country between the Dec 13 to Dec 25.

“There may be chances of snow in the last days of the year and the first few days of January, in the third week of February and in the first week of March.”

But the forecaster, who has penned his 450-page Irish weather almanac for 2014, is not expecting the arctic conditions of 2010 to return.

He forecast quite a balmy run-in to the winter with a mild autumn expected from his charts.

“Autumn may be looked back on as a mild one as regards temperatures. Despite one or two frost days, this year they may be less likely in either September or October.”

He said he’s expecting the first crisp frosts to arrive later than usual.

“October frosts are not unusual in Ireland around the last week, but probably not this year. Instead, widespread frosts are to be expected Nov 4 to Nov 8 and then Nov 18 to Nov 21.

“October is likely to be generally wet and windy, with no useful dry spells.”

He also expects a west-of-Ireland storm towards the end of October.
© Irish Examiner Ltd. All rights reserved

Blizzard 2010

The British Met Office used to give a preliminary Winter around the 5th of October up until a few years ago.I remember the excitement and speculation it used to cause. I am still going for a mild changeable winter but another cold one cannot be ruled out. Next month is important and exciting:D

Pigeon Reaper

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

The British Met Office used to give a preliminary Winter around the 5th of October up until a few years ago.I remember the excitement and speculation it used to cause. I am still going for a mild changeable winter but another cold one cannot be ruled out. Next month is important and exciting:D

They stopped doing as it was at the limits of scientific forecasting. People didn't understand this and took all it said as a normal forecast as complained if it didn't pan out according to the long range trends. Despite improvements in the Models we only get shorter term forecasts.