WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

Gonzo

that image really sums up how bad this winter is. I have never seen an image like that before during winter where almost the entire european continent is snow free mid January with the exception of very high ground, even coastal and low lying areas of southern Norway and Sweden, even Finland of all places are snow free and the green extends all the way to Moscow.

The Atlantic was dead for almost a year and it got fired up just in time to spoil our winter, it could go on for months more for all I know, that image shows the power of the warm atlantic how Europe is on it's own covered with lush green.

ninebeanrows

My un scientific concern is that we are going to have yet another late winter this year. Another icy March in the offing?

RobertKK

Europe has been really lucky with the winter so far, but a long way to go still and a it could easily change for the worse temperature wise.

Cogsy88

RobertKK wrote: »

Europe has been really lucky with the winter so far, but a long way to go still and a it could easily change for the worse temperature wise.

You mean for the better surely.

Tabnabs

Gonzo wrote: »

that image really sums up how bad this winter is. I have never seen an image like that before during winter where almost the entire european continent is snow free mid January with the exception of very high ground, even coastal and low lying areas of southern Norway and Sweden, even Finland of all places are snow free and the green extends all the way to Moscow.

You'll struggle to find + temperatures in Norway at the moment. They are doing pretty well for snow. eg.






Both photos taken in western Norway (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voss)

sumo12

Wow stunning pictures!

red_bairn

Just Whoa!

YouTookMyName

maquiladora wrote: »

It's also a reminder that even during regular seasons, Ireland is the absolute worst location on the planet at this latitude if you are looking for cold/snowy weather.

In some views they would say thats a good thing.

BLIZZARD7

ECM run is looking interesting... Slight Easterly flow developing from day 7 on, Cold air is closer this time.



Dan

mike65

Forget it, that's not going to become anything! If there is no build of cold from the east in the next 2/3 weeks we can say this winter will be over in terms of snow (bar the odd flurry). Indeed looking at the 2m temp models the Russian cold will be pushed back. Also the Azores high looks like taking up residence that bit closer.

dopolahpec

mike65 wrote: »

Forget it, that's not going to become anything! If there is no build of cold from the east in the next 2/3 weeks we can say this winter will be over in terms of snow (bar the odd flurry). Indeed looking at the 2m temp models the Russian cold will be pushed back. Also the Azores high looks like taking up residence that bit closer.

It has -8 uppers over Ireland by Day 10. Not that it will verify like that of course. But still, to write off winter in the face of promising charts like tonight's ECM is a bit OTT. Not every potential cold snap is going to be sourced in Vladivastok with 100 km/hr winds.

The east coast at least could easily get some snow fall from tonight's ECM.

BLIZZARD7

mike65 wrote: »

Forget it, that's not going to become anything! If there is no build of cold from the east in the next 2/3 weeks we can say this winter will be over in terms of snow (bar the odd flurry). Indeed looking at the 2m temp models the Russian cold will be pushed back. Also the Azores high looks like taking up residence that bit closer.

Im not saying its likely but how do you know the ECM isnt right? Its an outside option at present but unless you have a crystal ball you cant know its wrong.

Why would you write of All of February if January is mild? Feb 1991 could still happen- The weather will do what it wants... Im not writing anything off yet.

Edit : I didnt put in that sad face at the top and cant get rid of it^

Sad face eradicated!


Dan

dopolahpec

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Im not saying its likely but how do you know the ECM isnt right? Its an outside option at present but unless you have a crystal ball you cant know its wrong.

Why would you write of All of February if January is mild? Feb 1991 could still happen- The weather will do what it wants... Im not writing anything off yet.

Edit : I didnt put in that sad face at the top and cant get rid of it^


Dan

Yep the weather does what it wants, and it doesn't owe anyone anything.

Rebelbrowser

The 240h ecm chart is happy reading alright. you'd never know....

Tabnabs

red_bairn wrote: »

Just Whoa!

Not the first instance of frozen meat this winter :eek:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/09/moose-frozen-lake-norway_n_4568619.html

Thargor

Do you think Ill get away with a quick run up the Sugarloaf between 10am and 2pm tomorrow without getting saoked? Seems to be varying forecasts for Bray on Accuweather etc.

nacho libre

YouTookMyName wrote: »

In some views they would say thats a good thing.

only sick , very sick people could view it as a good thing:p

Capillatus

Harps wrote: »

There's a graph somewhere that shows the verification stats of all the main models, can't remember where it is now and don't know if it's overall verification or for a certain area. Either way GEM is usually vying for 3rd place with GFS and behind the European and UK models.

I haven't been through the entire topic yet, so I apologise for posting this if it has already been addressed.

Verification is made on a larger scale (hemisphere) and not regionally for EU or N. America. But still, the statistic tells us which model is the best in average to get the complex weather patterns right or as close to right as possible. Usually the model with the biggest score on a hemisphere scale is the best for more regional scales, since it has to be as accurate as possible in every part of the entire hemisphere. But some model can be better than the rest in one specific region and worse in the others, and so having a lower score. But generally, if a model cant get the entire picture right, it has a lower chance to get the regional patterns right as the forecast time increases.

Anyhow, here are the results (I almost sound like the guy that present his country' scores at Eurovision )

Long term stats:


And for the last month:

Day6 forecasts (144h):


Day8 (192h):


Day10 (240h):


All in all, ECMWF is "dominating" the scene, with GFS and UKMO not far behind. And then not far behind them, we have GEM (CMC).

Best regards.

EDIT: What do you think about the EMCWF ensemble 240h-360h looks?





And the control run:

whitebriar

I don't trust those.verification of any model at day 10 isn't great especially when it shows the opposite of normal. Small variations in the short term tend to be enough usually to morph into bigger changes later ..and you don't want those.

That said we should be entering a window far enough away from the last U.S cold outbreak to help and a further severe (nuisance to us for invigorating the Atlantic) cold outbreak in the state's looks less likely, so let's see

Capillatus

whitebriar wrote: »

I don't trust those.verification of any model at day 10 isn't great especially when it shows the opposite of normal. Small variations in the short term tend to be enough usually to morph into bigger changes later ..and you don't want those.

What is there not to trust? We are not talking about some forecasts. We are talking about verifications, which are hard facts and come as solid as 1+1=2. Or in this case, more like 2-1=1.

icesnowfrost

Everywhere in drogheda was pure white this morning it was nice to see it. Still very cold about 3 degrees

nacho libre

whitebriar wrote: »

I don't trust those.verification of any model at day 10 isn't great especially when it shows the opposite of normal. Small variations in the short term tend to be enough usually to morph into bigger changes later ..and you don't want those.

Yes, they can't forsee shortwaves which can scupper the party at 48 hours notice in a specific region. Isn't this what happened with the easterly that never was in December 2012? I remember the former chief netweather forecaster assuring everyone that it was coming. There was a record amount of toys thrown out of the pram when it didn't happen. I think if a model gets the overall hemispheric picture right consistently, but local weather effects, such as shortwaves, scupper it for us, that does not render their verification stats void. Afterall easterly are notoriously hard to forecasts for, they'd be dealing with zonal weather most of the time in our part of the world.

Gonzo

woke up this morning to first decent frost of the winter. Everywhere was white, raining now but still feeling bitterly cold at 4C.

derekon

Gonzo wrote: »

woke up this morning to first decent frost of the winter. Everywhere was white, raining now but still feeling bitterly cold at 4C.

That really is saying something ain't it? The 14th January and it took this long to get a decent frost!! And it's all of Western Europe, not just Ireland! Anyway, the models make for horrific reading this evening with absolutely no sign of any decent cold out to the 21st January! Still too early to call but once we past next week then there is just 5 weeks left! Will this go down as one of the worst winters ever from a coldies point of view? The coming weeks will be interesting.

D

Villain

I can't see any hope in the models

kingshankly

Must be no snow anytime soon judging by the amount of posts here today

patneve2

This winter reminds me a lot of 2011/2012

John.Icy

patneve2 wrote: »

This winter reminds me a lot of 2011/2012

Nah. At this point in 2012, nearly all of Europe bar Ireland was staring down the barrel of one of the most severe cold snaps ever. Few tweaks here and there and Ireland could have been in on the action.

Doesn't seem to be the likes this year, major major major tweaks needed for Ireland to see anything. :P

Kippure

There was heavy wet snow falling early this afternoon in the Dublin Wicklow Rockies. Didn't stick.

patneve2

John.Icy wrote: »

Nah. At this point in 2012, nearly all of Europe bar Ireland was staring down the barrel of one of the most severe cold snaps ever. Few tweaks here and there and Ireland could have been in on the action.

Doesn't seem to be the likes this year, major major major tweaks needed for Ireland to see anything. :P

Or I should of said...similar winter to 11/12 up on till now. The 2012 cold spell didn't commence until the end of January.

Europe will definitely see a decent cold spell in February 14'.