WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

dexter647

kingshankly wrote: »

Must be no snow anytime soon judging by the amount of posts here today

In fairness boards was down for most of the day today but that probably wouldn't have made much difference to the amount of posts as the models are to say the least depressing:(....On a more positive note folks prior to 2009 I never entertained the prospect of cold snowy weather until late January, with February always being the best shot of delivering the white stuff...So let's not give up yet as there's a lot of winter left in my opinion:)

pistolpetes11

Did I hear talk of a major strat warming ? Matt Hugo's twitter had a chart up there a while ago , I'm on the mobile machine so can't repost it

V1

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Did I hear talk of a major strat warming ? Matt Hugo's twitter had a chart up there a while ago , I'm on the mobile machine so can't repost it

Tease!:(

maquiladora

No sign of anything interesting on the models anytime soon. Looking further ahead there could be some stratospheric changes towards the end of the month which could then lead to a potential change later on in February, but no certainty yet that will happen or indeed whether our little part of the world would benefit from it even if it did.

patneve2

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Did I hear talk of a major strat warming ? Matt Hugo's twitter had a chart up there a while ago , I'm on the mobile machine so can't repost it

Yep, but still +300 hr stuff. If we see it on the charts in 4/5 days, then there's a high chance of it occurring. Let's hope for the best.

Calibos

At this stage I am resigned to another snowless one and am now looking to see continued mildness in the models. Last Winter/Springs snowlessness but coldness made for 3 out of 3 exceptionally expensive heating bills for the NOV-APR period instead of the usual 1 out of 3

Gonzo

patneve2 wrote: »

This winter reminds me a lot of 2011/2012

for me so far this winter is quite a bit worse than those years, at least we saw minimal dustings and some frosts in those winters. It's certainly gonna stick out as a year to remember where all of Europe has remained snowless as we head towards the end of January. Only the end of January and 4 weeks of February left to play for. Spring snow may work in other parts of Europe but it rarely accounts for much in Ireland during daylight hours.

dopolahpec

There is no doubt about it. This is the nadir, a very grim time to be a winter weather model watcher. We are now in deep winter, and there's nothing on the horizon. Talk of strat warming in 300 hours time? Well add another 3 weeks to that for possible effects to affect our weather and even then there's no guarantees. In all likelihood the usual will happen, a ginormous Greenland high around Paddy's Day. Easterly winds burning new growth with a hard penetrative frost and people creaming themselves about graupel at dawn melted by 10am and the more adventurous driving to the mountains for a fix.

Close, But no cigar

whitebriar

It's also indicative of how long range forecasters are caught out in their usual speel of chancing their arms with a little bit of telling the punters what they want to hear.

We have entered the window of useful winter time now.
Models can change when the weather tells them to.If they do it will be sudden.

relaxed

whitebriar wrote: »

It's also indicative of how long range forecasters are caught out in their usual speel of chancing their arms with a little bit of telling the punters what they want to hear.

I don't think any of the long range forecasters called the stormy period over Christmas at all.

Now doubt they will get screaming headlines again soon enough about either a scorcher or stormy summer and the punters will gladly buy the rags again to read it and recycle it to the rest of us.

Elmer Blooker

relaxed wrote: »

I don't think any of the long range forecasters called the stormy period over Christmas at all.

Very true, no one saw it coming. Who would have thought the month would turn vert wet and very stormy when it began like this.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2013/brack/bracka20131202.gif

Speak Now

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Very true, no one saw it coming. Who would have thought the month would turn vert wet and very stormy when it began like this.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2013/brack/bracka20131202.gif

Oh id love that chart now

Gonzo

whats even worse is we could end up with January charts during May, June and July, that happened about 2 years ago and brought us a very cold summer with north easterlies persisting for first half of summer. At this stage i'd be happy to write off winter if it meant that the atlantic dies down for the summer bringing us another warm and possibly thundery summer like last summer.

Elmer Blooker

that low off NW Iberia has appeared out of nowhere, never a bad thing to see lp in those parts at this time of year.
(I know its ridiculous straw clutching but desperation has set in !)

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011512/gfs-0-84.png?12

IrishHomer

This corresponds with RTE weather at 930pm. They mentioned a lot about Northerly air dragging down Sunday with wintry type showers and cold increasing.

patneve2

Looks like a slack low over us in a few days. Hard frosts at night and snow above about 300-350 mt in any precipitation (which will be slow moving).

pauldry

Cold Saturday Sunday but mild then for a week relatively anywhoo

dopolahpec

I dunno. Huge changes on the mods this morning. Some retrogression west of this Scandi block for a while and much more defined undercutting by the atlantic low pressures. Don't see any mild weather on the GFS and ECM is looking similar out to 144 hours

Rebelbrowser

dopolahpec wrote: »

I dunno. Huge changes on the mods this morning. Some retrogression west of this Scandi block for a while and much more defined undercutting by the atlantic low pressures. Don't see any mild weather on the GFS and ECM is looking similar out to 144 hours

On the basis that on the models, the scandi high keeps hanging around without the atlantic ever truly beating it, and that in deep fi the gfs seems to build a block out to our west, I have a funny feeling february will be good for coldies.....

kingshankly

It's hilarious the way people thank the optimistic posts and not the negative ones

whitebriar

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

On the basis that on the models, the scandi high keeps hanging around without the atlantic ever truly beating it, and that in deep fi the gfs seems to build a block out to our west, I have a funny feeling february will be good for coldies.....

A scandi ridge of 1024mb is not a scandi high though and that's all that's there today despite several mirage runs from the various Nwps in recent weeks.
That's pathetic and no match for the Atlantic.

Coldies do need high pressure in the Atlantic towards Iceland.
I don't see that happening though if another cold push reaches the north east of the state's.
There's going to be more lows too near that area if new cold air exits Canada/Ne States.

Look west folks as much as east for a more realistic picture.
There's no good news yet only mirages.

rickdangerouss

Mild winter so far for the UK.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/25750629

patneve2

The only trend I can see these days is the reinforcing of the Scandi block, probably due to low temps and snow cover over Scandinavia. Russia is cooling down rapidly also and the snow falling in Moscow will help...sub -20 forecast there in a few days time.

Whether the Scandinavian high influences us or not is another matter but i wouldn't get my hopes up. February best chance in my opinion.

Nabber

Not much to hope for with the current charts. No under cutting lows from what I could see. GFS has a depression gradually slip south over Ireland, but under cutting it is not.

Look to the future, 2029 is our year to shine again.

My guess would be feb will be much the same. My hopes are on a nice high over Irland leaving us with Dry, sunny and cool winter days

Kippure

Nabber wrote: »

Not much to hope for with the current charts. No under cutting lows from what I could see. GFS has a depression gradually slip south over Ireland, but under cutting it is not.

Look to the future, 2029 is our year to shine again.

My guess would be feb will be much the same. My hopes are on a nice high over Irland leaving us with Dry, sunny and cool winter days

The NEW Ice Age.....

Oneiric 3

Nabber wrote: »

Not much to hope for with the current charts. No under cutting lows from what I could see. GFS has a depression gradually slip south over Ireland, but under cutting it is not.

The current/projected pattern bears a grim similarity with that which occurred this time last year. Slack low pressure systems, containing damp polar air, sliding down near or over Ireland due to persistent troughing over Central Europe and high pressure over north Europe. Although temps on a broader scale were lower last year, they still proved pretty useless for big snow or storm lovers.

Pressure & 850 temp pattern between Jan 17 -24 last year: (from Vedur.is)





Although I speak only anecdotally, and well open to contradiction, this type of pattern seems to be becoming quite marked during recent winters. And from a personal perspective, it is most detestable pattern imaginable to get at time of year.


Looking back at late Jan '86. A fairly similar pattern occurred, though with far bigger results in the end as it was followed by one of the coldest, most easterly Febs on record:

06z Jan 29 1986:



by the next evening (Jan 30) the pattern developed into this:



It is also interesting that this pattern developed without significant height rises over towards Greenland, and although they did increase during the course of the following Feb, they did so relatively intermittently. Would be hard to imagine that happening these days.

maquiladora

Yes, a real "no man's land" situation for the foreseeable future. Zzzzz.

BLIZZARD7

Nice runs today with Huge changes over the pole, especially on the ECM 12z where a monster arctic high develops with a nicely split polar vortex. All good signs if its cold you're after, no guarantee though. February might just deliver this year.




Dan

Iancar29

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Nice runs today with Huge changes over the pole, especially on the ECM 12z where a monster arctic high develops with a nicely split polar vortex. All good signs if its cold you're after, no guarantee though. February might just deliver this year.




Dan

It certainly is nice to see a split occurring.


Lets just hope its sticks and the eastern lobe of the vortex comes down enough to give a proper nudge or block to the atlantic.

With a SSW event also on the cards that could help keep the ball rolling in our direction.

Some hope is RESTORED


Now onto the 18z GFS , see what it has up its sleeves :rolleyes: ...

Oscar Bravo

STATUS ORANGE

Fog Warning for Munster, Leinster, Connacht, Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan

Widespread dense fog is likely to develop tonight and persist in places on Friday morning, with visibilities as low 50 metres in places.
Issued:
Thursday 16 January 2014 19:00

Valid:
Thursday 16 January 2014 19:00 to Friday 17 January 2014 11:00