WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

patneve2

Funny how the GFS 18z goes close to a snow event (ok, probably higher ground) this Saturday into Sunday. Ninja snow?

Iancar29

patneve2 wrote: »

Funny how the GFS 18z goes close to a snow event (ok, probably higher ground) this Saturday into Sunday. Ninja snow?

Its quite different than the 12 z but yes , very much a ninja snow event indeed!
Dps close to 0 and some borderline tickness could be sleet at low levels / snow in inland and high areas.

One to check the hi res in the morning for

omicron

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

STATUS ORANGE

Fog Warning for Munster, Leinster, Connacht, Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan

Widespread dense fog is likely to develop tonight and persist in places on Friday morning, with visibilities as low 50 metres in places.
Issued:
Thursday 16 January 2014 19:00

Valid:
Thursday 16 January 2014 19:00 to Friday 17 January 2014 11:00

I saw status orange warning and thought there must be some form of interesting weather event on the way that I hadn't noticed . . the disappointment to discover it was for fog of all things!!!

Red Nissan

omicron wrote: »

I saw status orange warning and thought there must be some form of interesting weather event on the way that I hadn't noticed . . the disappointment to discover it was for fog of all things!!!

Quite so, however, most horror stories begin in the fog ....

dopolahpec

I think the models are very encouraging this morning, with developing interest for something to develop near the end of the month.

There's good model support now for high pressure pushing across the central polar regions. This morning's GFS run shows this nicely albeit in FI but it has support from other models, ECM etc too. Something is certainly happening if you look at the bigger picture. Deep cold is now well established to our north east, and is slowly but surely emerging to our east. We will soon be in a good position to tap into it.

I'm striking a note of optimism here, not because I am straw clutching, but because I genuinely see lots to be optimistic about. See below FI charts from ECM, GFS and GEM. All 3 show variations on high pressure building at very northern latitudes, with potential for us.

dopolahpec

GFS is really showing great consistency with lovely Greenland High developing in FI for a few runs now. Hopefully it's on to something....miles out I know but it doesn't look like it's off on one to me.

Elmer Blooker

I have no idea what to make of this?
Six of one and half a dozen of the other...... This chart tells me that FI is about +96 though I did expect the Azores to build in the second half of Jan.

icesnowfrost

These are looking good or are they ? Windy and a cold one

maquiladora

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I have no idea what to make of this?
Six of one and half a dozen of the other...... This chart tells me that FI is about +96.

Typical no man's land stuff on the horizon for the next week or so.

Weather has been seriously boring since that spell of active weather ended. Even FI is really poor when the highlight is a 48 hour toppler with -6 polar maritime air at 250+ hours. :rolleyes:

patneve2

Looks good over the pole. 3/4 runs in a row now. Looks like a possibility of a pv displacement.

sdanseo

icesnowfrost wrote: »

These are looking good or are they ? Windy and a cold one

First image shows a northerly with some decent cold but those would have trouble bringing much in the way of snow to all but Ulster, and even then the temps look borderline. More likely to be bitterly cold and breezy.

Second image show an atlantic low not unlike those of the last few weeks, albeit a bit further north. Nothing special. Windy.

Both in FI and useless for forecasting purposes unless they correlate with several other runs/models and even then, this far out it would only show a potential trend.

Redsunset

Brave yourselves it's coming! In FI but you never know.
Interesting times ahead.

sdanseo

Redsunset wrote: »

Brave yourselves it's coming! In FI but you never know.
Interesting times ahead.

I have my own prediction:

We'll get none of the cold and snow promised in inferred from this post but it'll still get a gazillion thanks.

Just watch. :rolleyes:

M.T. Cranium

The good news is that we are getting ever closer to the end of meteorological winter so that there is an ever increasing chance of actual winter appearing (see 2013 for demonstration).

Some like to call this "middle to late March."

Redsunset

sdeire wrote: »

I have my own prediction:

We'll get none of the cold and snow promised in inferred from this post but it'll still get a gazillion thanks.

Just watch. :rolleyes:

North Co Dublin to be hit with blizzards. :rolleyes:

Villain

Nice battle on GFS but sadly the Atlantic is winning out keeping the cold East of Britain

ninebeanrows

Should be snow up the tops of the Wicklow mountains today? Any reports?

3c @ Casement.

-- Looking at latest 6z GFS, could be some accumulations if the 850hPA 0c isotherm can just push slightly further east. But western parts of Wicklow mountains could achieve decent accum above 500m by tomorrow afternoon.

whitebriar

There's a lot of cloud cover obscuring Lugnaquilla today viewing from south Wicklow, but you can see a fair amount of new snow cover as gaps pass.
The peak has had patchy old snow which never melted.

zidewayz

Weathercheck wrote: »

Should be snow up the tops of the Wicklow mountains today? Any reports?

3c @ Casement.

-- Looking at latest 6z GFS, could be some accumulations if the 850hPA 0c isotherm can just push slightly further east. But western parts of Wicklow mountains could achieve decent accum above 500m by tomorrow afternoon.

Walked up the top of Seehan 647m asl this morn. Snow line is at 490 masl. Was getting pretty heavy on the way down so would expect snow level to drop if precipitation keeps up and temps fall.

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote: »

Should be snow up the tops of the Wicklow mountains today? Any reports?

3c @ Casement.

-- Looking at latest 6z GFS, could be some accumulations if the 850hPA 0c isotherm can just push slightly further east. But western parts of Wicklow mountains could achieve decent accum above 500m by tomorrow afternoon.

Cycled Rathfarnham to Glencree to Enniskerry today, was wet snow at the highest point along that route (think it's near 500m after the Viewpoint), was starting to stick a bit on the grass at the highest point. Nothing on the surrounding hills there that I could see though.

Was cold though!

Kippure

Weathercheck wrote: »

Should be snow up the tops of the Wicklow mountains today? Any reports?

3c @ Casement.

-- Looking at latest 6z GFS, could be some accumulations if the 850hPA 0c isotherm can just push slightly further east. But western parts of Wicklow mountains could achieve decent accum above 500m by tomorrow afternoon.

There was snow on the grass between kippure gates and Sally Gap Mountain Pass. Around 1c. Was starting to stick a little more an hour ago ish.

maquiladora

With the models showing very cold air spilling down into North America and reaching the Atlantic coast there, we should be keeping an eye out for a return of deep explosive lows crossing the Atlantic again in the medium term.

Hopefully that will provide something interesting to follow. Still more dreary no man's land stuff for the next few days though.

Speak Now

Loving this dreary no mans land stuff myself, good for outdoor activities with the kids.

Supercell

Still drizzling here and 2.7C with a DP of 2.1 , must be snowing above around 250 metres now i'd say. Anyone up near Roundwood?

odonopenmic

Supercell wrote: »

Still drizzling here and 2.7C with a DP of 2.1 , must be snowing above around 250 metres now i'd say. Anyone up near Roundwood?

Hi there,

I'm in Laragh for the evening - no thermometers or any other gear but no snow around the hills so far. Dry at present but overcast. I'd say we might get something later maybe. I'll try and post if there's anything to report.

First time posting here but I've been lurking a long time. Thanks for all the reports, information, FIs and good times!

whitebriar

maquiladora wrote: »

With the models showing very cold air spilling down into North America and reaching the Atlantic coast there, we should be keeping an eye out for a return of deep explosive lows crossing the Atlantic again in the medium term.

Hopefully that will provide something interesting to follow. Still more dreary no man's land stuff for the next few days though.

Story of the winter really.
A late cold outbreak of the nuisance variety looks inevitable if at all now,a harsh cold spring with snow in the morning at times melted by noon and back again at night.
The worst yoke imaginable at that time of the year.
Wintery spells in Ireland in March April and horror of horrors early May is more common than Jan-Feb sadly.

derekon

Kippure wrote: »

There was snow on the grass between kippure gates and Sally Gap Mountain Pass. Around 1c. Was starting to stick a little more an hour ago ish.

Thanks for the image Kippure but it really says it all about this winter doesn't it when there are pictures posted of wet snow on the top of a mountain in mid January? I mean, has it really come to this ?

So far this winter has to go down as one of the worst for cold lovers and I don't see it changing anytime soon. :mad:

D

Sir Arthur Daley

It is so mild the grass is still growing, i did a cut of silage yesterday for the cows, handier do a cut and draw the grass to them rather than they mark up the ground.

downwiththatsor

AA Roadwatch ‏@aaroadwatch 24m KERRY: Slippery conditions on N86 Dingle/ Tralee Rd on Dingle side of Gleann na Gealt following snowfall. Take care. http://theAA.ie/Roadwatch

Gonzo

derekon wrote: »

So far this winter has to go down as one of the worst for cold lovers and I don't see it changing anytime soon. :mad:

D

Couldn't agree more, winter of 2013/2014 is now a standout winter for worst winter I have ever experienced since I was born. This is a winter I want to quickly forget about as it has delivered nothing but my 2 most hated types of winter weather: boring mild nothingless and spells of relentless rain and stormy gusts. Can't wait to see the back of this winter but unfortunately I think it's gonna end up dragging into May with spells of cold rain with annoying wintryness at nighttime and people taking trips up to the mountaintops to see dustings of snow. Winter 2014/2015 can only be better than this.