WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

Tabnabs

A little chilly in Northern Norway at the moment

dopolahpec

Gonzo wrote: »

think it's fair to say now that January is yet another write-off for this winter with only 3/4 weeks of February left to play for now. Once we get to final week of February I want a slow but sure warm up to begin for Spring and Summer.

I wouldn't write off January just yet. Yeah maybe for a beasterly, but you'd be making a tough enough call to write it off for ninja snow or whatever ye are calling it now.

6541

When is a Summer thread going to be opened !

Tabnabs

6541 wrote: »

When is a Summer thread going to be opened !

Rebelbrowser

What's this I see on the 12z GFS.....



All rather temporary, high ground only, blah blah but only 5 days away...... just shows you can't write off winter yet.

whitebriar

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Feb might turn out to be interesting (I said "might")
That deep low heading our way next weekend has nowhere to go except under that high to the NE that won't go away. We can only live in hope!
The Azores ridging towards Greenland??

The form horse would be for that low to fill past GB.
Meanwhile the new surge of mega icy air exiting the state's in the coming weeks is going to trump any mid Atlantic bridging,meaning we will see those storms..
You can now write off probably the first 2 weeks of February for polar outbreaks in Ireland,save for the odd brief northerly here today gone in 12hrs,on the back end of coming storms. I hate to be the harbinger of bad news but there's no point in making stuff up that won't materialize.

MidMan25

So you are writing off the next 24 days White Briar?

Pass the crystal ball when you're finished with it, I need to know if United will sign anybody in this transfer window.

derekon

The latest update from James Madden at Exacta Weather and issued yesterday Monday 20/01/2014 relating to the period following this Thursday 23/01/14:

Some significant and heavy snow is likely at times across parts of Scotland, northern England, Wales, and parts of Ireland for this period. The cold and wintry theme is also likely to continue into the start of February on present indications.

I wonder if his volume of subscriptions to the Exacta Weather website is starting to dwindle? :rolleyes::D

D

blackbird99

Ian Fergussen twitted this link last night http://weatherman79.wordpress.com/2014/01/19/winter-forecasting-the-broken-clock-conundrum/, it sums up exacta weather.

nacho libre

MidMan25 wrote: »

So you are writing off the next 24 days White Briar?

Pass the crystal ball when you're finished with it, I need to know if United will sign anybody in this transfer window.

He's not being a doom and gloom merchant for the sake of it. what he's saying is based on previous experience of what's most likely to happen when you get a nh pattern like this - of course he maybe wrong- as there are no guarantees when it come to weather forecasting- i have a hunch he hopes he is, but at the risk of labouring the point, he's not allowing personal preferences skew his judgment

kingshankly

6541 wrote: »

When is a Summer thread going to be opened !

This thread was opened in August but it's forbidden to open a summer one in winter

whitebriar

MidMan25 wrote: »

So you are writing off the next 24 days White Briar?

Pass the crystal ball when you're finished with it, I need to know if United will sign anybody in this transfer window.

I'm afraid super cold air from the States,entering the warm Atlantic in the next few weeks,is unlikely to have much effect on who United buy.
The Atlantic depressions it creates might if the phone lines go down or something.

dopolahpec

whitebriar wrote: »

The form horse would be for that low to fill past GB.
Meanwhile the new surge of mega icy air exiting the state's in the coming weeks is going to trump any mid Atlantic bridging,meaning we will see those storms..
You can now write off probably the first 2 weeks of February for polar outbreaks in Ireland,save for the odd brief northerly here today gone in 12hrs,on the back end of coming storms. I hate to be the harbinger of bad news but there's no point in making stuff up that won't materialize.

It's not news it's a prediction. There are no guarantees. The polar profile is a lot different now than it was a few weeks ago. The jet axis will differ. TheAtlantic is colder. The vortex is in a different place/shape there's high pressure to the north east. There's certainly set to be stormy weather. But that energy will find a different path across the Atlantic each time and there's always a chance of something cold developing in the aftermath if it goes a bit more south east with a block over scandanavia

The mood in here is grim even as the model output leans gradually toward cold. I don't understand it. Is this the same forum that was ramping sleet last March?

It's January 21st lads.

Wouldn't take much development from tonight's GFS to lead to low level snow before Feb 1st never mind the end of winter.

Mr Cumulonimbus

dopolahpec wrote: »

It's January 21st lads.

I know. But..............

whitebriar

dopolahpec wrote: »

It's January 21st lads.

Wouldn't take much development from tonight's GFS to lead to low level snow before Feb 1st never mind the end of winter.

As posted already,wishfully thinking is not realistic thinking.Cold air meeting warmer air is one of the basic ingredients for depressions.
Hoping another already dodgy run (in terms of using it's more FI parts) will morph into something you want or I want defies logic.It won't change the science of this and that's the elephant in the room,the cock block of winter in our neck of the woods,a vigorous Atlantic caused by that unusually super cold air exiting North America engaging with warmer air.
There's no avoiding that unless you're into hope casts.
But you are right,nature is a wonderful thing and it could invent a curveball yet.I'm just not going to sugarcoat the form horse in this and by that I mean what should happen with the current ingredients.Storm trains.

red_bairn

whitebriar wrote: »

[...]Storm trains.

The never ending line...

Mr Cumulonimbus

It's about time the Atlantic was taken out ........., big time.

icesnowfrost

Things are looking ok for the end of the month(at the min)

BLIZZARD7

GFS is okay.. UKMO is lovely with heights building over Svalbard towards Greenland between +120hrs and +144hrs with very good trough disruption that should see colder uppers over scandi sent towards us if we could see a day 7 chart...

Several Ninja snow events to come over the next 10 days I feel.



Dan

Sir Arthur Daley

Are we likely to get nationwide snow?

BLIZZARD7

WikiHow wrote: »

Are we likely to get nationwide snow?

No not likely. There is unusually cold air coming in from the west in the short term followed by a potential easterly source of air after that if things fall into place. A nationwide snow event is pretty unlikely.. not impossible though. Get the cold first.. Look for details like snow after.



Dan

Rebelbrowser

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

GFS is okay.. UKMO is lovely with heights building over Svalbard towards Greenland between +120hrs and +144hrs with very good trough disruption that should see colder uppers over scandi sent towards us if we could see a day 7 chart...

Several Ninja snow events to come over the next 10 days I feel.



Dan

yeah a ukmo t168 chart would be -8 uppers over the whole country I suspect. fingers and toes crossed. accordingly to ian fergusson of the uk met posting on nw before the 0z suite......

"We are coming to something of a tipping point this winter...". The words of the Dep Chief, re either a continuation of the "relentless" westerlies or a major pattern change, ring loud re model watching into next week. In short: a critical period in their view, with "a chance of a cold snap and easterlies" or alternatively the status quo re-established all too soon, in which case "...it will be too late.. (to change the character of this very wet Winter)..". It is no exaggeration to say that what unfolds in next few days of model-watching is potentially fundamental to rest of Winter... "

very interesting! of course whilst i am focussing on the positive parts of the above the opposite side of this coin toss is validation for WB's prediction of an impending storm train....

ECM this morning will be interesting. We should know by Friday what the main type of weather will be for much of February.

Lastly just to say whether we get v cold weather in a weeks time is dependant on what a rather nasty looking storm on Sunday into Monday does when it passes the UK. That storm of itself however may need to be watched for wind, rain and even wintry potential on its back edge.

Sir Arthur Daley

The year is pushing out so fingers crossed this will bring snow.

Rebelbrowser

ecm 0z not nearly as promising for coldies Im afraid.

fr wishy washy

Turn off the lights on your way out.

whitebriar

Beware mirage runs.
Use your heads folks,not the hope casting straw clutching delirium on net weather et al.
Look west in the short and medium term and intuitively decide what's likely to happen.
A colder Europe or Scandinavia is always eventually a good probability
Getting that across the North Sea,never mind the Irish Sea is not terribly credible in the next couple of weeks,should the form horse do as usual with all the wild energy it is likely to be getting.

I know one thing,I'd be paying more attention to mirage runs showing something heading towards us out of the east or northeast if that Atlantic energy wasn't likely to be there.

Rebelbrowser

whitebriar wrote: »

Beware mirage runs.
Use your heads folks,not the hope casting straw clutching delirium on net weather et al.
Look west in the short and medium term and intuitively decide what's likely to happen.
A colder Europe or Scandinavia is always eventually a good probability
Getting that across the North Sea,never mind the Irish Sea is not terribly credible in the next couple of weeks,should the form horse do as usual with all the wild energy it is likely to be getting.

I know one thing,I'd be paying more attention to mirage runs showing something heading towards us out of the east or northeast if that Atlantic energy wasn't likely to be there.

Fully accepted, and agree with observation about NW generally, but as per my post above the UK Met themselves seem of the view that a colder spell next week is at least viable. Yes thats the UK, and yes the atlantic seems to win out these supposed battle scenarios 9 times out of 10, but I think the UK Met's attitude, if correctly reported by Ian Ferguson, places this a bit higher in credibility than a "mirage" run?

The fact that GFS and ECM aren't on board, quite apart from your observations about the whole NH situation presently, renders it a very long shot certainly though.

Great to have guys like WB who know their onions providing sense tests all the same as it is very easy to get caught up in the NW hype if, like me, you read weather maps by looking for blues and reds......

whitebriar

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Fully accepted, and agree with observation about NW generally, but as per my post above the UK Met themselves seem of the view that a colder spell next week is at least viable. Yes thats the UK, and yes the atlantic seems to win out these supposed battle scenarios 9 times out of 10, but I think the UK Met's attitude, if correctly reported by Ian Ferguson, places this a bit higher in credibility than a "mirage" run?

The fact that GFS and ECM aren't on board, quite apart from your observations about the whole NH situation presently, renders it a very long shot certainly though.

Great to have guys like WB who know their onions providing sense tests all the same as it is very easy to get caught up in the NW hype if, like me, you read weather maps by looking for blues and reds......

I think the UKMO have been here several times.The difference is,they're allowing Ian to quote them in the last couple of years.If you were chatting more in depth to the main behind the scenes Ukmo forecast team,I reckon you'd be less happy though.
Incidentally I'm not predicting endless Atlantic influence, Nature does throw curve balls But with the present set up,my confidence for at least the next 3 weeks, in any break through from the east or better the Ne is very low.

dopolahpec

Where's the hype?

Most posts in this thread are variations on the 'nothing interesting' theme, or 'interesting wind storm please'.

The snow-bunnies have withered away with about 1 or 2 posters left who are hardly even convincing themselves.

This is the least hyped winter thread I've ever seen. Every time someone points out the possibility of colder conditions before month's end that are showing on model runs they are shot down with 'nope 3 more weeks of atlantic storm train'..

I guess I'll wait until people are showing Ensemble 19 at 224 hours GFS 06z next October for a bit of snow-hype lol.

pistolpetes11

Somebody start the Summer thread already ,

You can stick a fork in this winter ........ its done