WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

whitebriar

@ dopolapec well if I were to say santys real and you posted a vid of my Daddy drinking the whiskey laid out fir him while man put the pressies under the tree,I wouldn't be saying you shot me down.

Shot down isn't the word,it's a discussion! Right now the Atlantic has the cards.I dont like saying that but it's the truth and looks like the ongoing form horse unless there's bug changes out west.
Without changes out west the goings on in the east or northeast may as well be in China as the Atlantic will trump them.

maquiladora

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Somebody start the Summer thread already ,

You can stick a fork in this winter ........ its done

What about spring? :pac:

pistolpetes11

maquiladora wrote: »

What about spring? :pac:

Im bypassing it , and getting the BBQ out , bloody grass has been growing a lot of the winter , if we got a couple of dry days Id cut it :mad:

Tom Cruises Left Nut

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Im bypassing it , and getting the BBQ out , bloody grass has been growing a lot of the winter , if we got a couple of dry days Id cut it :mad:

Tempted to do a damp messy cut at this stage, it all looks so untidy !

Hopefully it all gets killed with 2 foot of snow on top of it before winter is out :pac:

Gonzo

maquiladora wrote: »

What about spring? :pac:

There is nothing more annoying than a relentless mild muck winter followed by a cold spring like last year where snow falls several times a week during the small hours of the morning only to be washed away by 10am each and every day with rain and sleet showers all afternoon then back to snow after midnight. Heating on full blast till end of May.

The thoughts of 'why couldnt we have this in December, January and February' play in your head and you start thinking what could have been a great event, but all we're left with is crap because it's far too late into the year!

Once we move into the final week of February im done with this winter and hope for a warming leading into hopefully a summer similar to what we just had. Im still hopefull that something interesting will turn up all of a sudden over the next 4 weeks.

Rebelbrowser

For what it is worth the 12z UKMO has stuck to its earlier guns whilst the GFS has improved a bit for coldies. See UKMO chart t144 at . The cold from the east is moving toward us but, alas, there is warm air approaching from the west at an equal rate of knots. Doubt the cold air would get to us - but (said he with bleary eyed optimisim) there is time for upgrades...

snaps

For what its worth, we finally have deep cold here in poland. Snowed all day here, currently -9 and minus double figures during night when it clears. TV was saying possible -25 by weekend, with daytime temps not much higher.

maquiladora

UKMO has stormy potential at 96 hours. GFS tracks the low further north though.

Iancar29

An upgrade to the ninja snow on the gfs for the end of the weekend.

DPs good for for low level snow possibly.

Tickness is better tooAnd its all down to this low being closer to Scotland than to Iceland.


So some low level snow possible with this run , mainly in the NW and West.

Ukmo has the low closer to us yet again but... it hasnt " sucked in " as much cold air as the gfs.

Shall be nice to see what the ECM says.

whitebriar

snaps wrote: »

For what its worth, we finally have deep cold here in poland. Snowed all day here, currently -9 and minus double figures during night when it clears. TV was saying possible -25 by weekend, with daytime temps not much higher.

you are in the mountains there though aren't you so a few degrees colder than elsewhere in Poland.

Krakow is forecast to have a -9 Max by Saturday and -15 by night.
That's deep cold too mind you,its one to watch. No match energy wise for our friend the Atlantic though,its catching fire

snaps

whitebriar wrote: »

you are in the mountains there though aren't you so a few degrees colder than elsewhere in Poland.

Krakow is forecast to have a -9 Max by Saturday and -15 by night.
That's deep cold too mind you,its one to watch. No match energy wise for our friend the Atlantic though,its catching fire

Yes in the mountains. Also the snow cover keeps temps down. I noticed the ground underneath the snow is frozen solid. The river that flows through our land should freeze too.
Just saw in the news that north east poland is already -18.

Iancar29

GFS and ECM are very similar for Sundays potential.




Again as i said , main areas of interest would be the North and West and higher up any further inland.

Could be some blizzard like conditions in High areas of the North .

hellboy99

AccuWeather have posted this up regarding the storm for Sunday:

The weekend will conclude with a major storm capable of producing flooding rainfall and widespread damaging winds.

A rapidly strengthening low pressure system will reach Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland by Sunday morning before blasting across the rest of the United Kingdom by Sunday evening.

You can read the rest here:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/major-storm-to-hit-the-uk-and/22352943

icesnowfrost

Looking Good on the east coast on tuesday. That low could produce some snow.

pauldry

Sundays storm has been shown for a couple of weeks now starting off two weeks ago as a storm in Iceland. Now its gone as far South as Scotland and some of Ireland.

Are the tides high or is February 1st the next tidal date.

Someone who lives along the coast told me its February

Blizzard 2010

Unless the Block to our East starts to shift westwards soon, Our hopes for snow is curtains. Hopefully we wont have a repeat of March last year in view of the devastation caused to Farmers with animals dying in Fields and the stunt in growth,I must say this winter has been dissapointing and miserable. Roll on the spring and summer

Redsunset

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Looking Good on the east coast on tuesday. That low could produce some snow.

Low pressures are anticlockwise in northern hemisphere. So no nothing for the East or anyone.

dopolahpec

The UKMO model looks good to me this morning. Basically very close to a beasterly situation at 144 hrs

Harps

Have to say I've quite enjoyed the winter so far, a few weeks of interesting weather during the holidays and nice and mild since then with potentially another interesting week ahead. A nice change from the cold, dull and uneventful winters over the past few years

LuckyLloyd

Looking grim for a proper event at this stage, how are fellow snow lovers holding up?

dopolahpec

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Looking grim for a proper event at this stage, how are fellow snow lovers holding up?

It's actually looking less grim than it has in a while. Plenty potential for higher ground anyway in next 10 days I'd say

dopolahpec

For those that haven't looked at the model output this morning, all 3 models are showing a bigger tendency toward sending energy SE this morning in the coming days.

The best of these is easily the UKMO which looks primed at 144 hours

Rebelbrowser

The Azores High is stopping the real cold reaching us as things stand though. Also as others have said on here the crazy cold exiting Canada / NE USA is going to create (on present projections admittedly) a very energetic Atlantic which will be v hard to stop.

That said, the consistency of the UKMO for 4 model runs on the trot, and the apparent movement of the other models at least toward it, is a bit of hope to cling to. Also the Japanese model, last I saw, was suggesting a cold outbreak next week.

Btw, I should say by cold I mean -8 uppers as you generally need that for snow BUT, either way, on all models, it will not be mild over the next 10 days. It'll be scarf and glove weather for the foreseeable really, but no snow as things stand.

In general, I know its been mild and stormy this winter but I am a bit confused by all the comments that there hasn't even been a frost. I live in suburban Cork which is just about as mild as Ireland gets and I reckon I've had ice on the car pre work on 10+ ocassions so far this winter and my estate (which is admittedly north facing and on a bit of a hill) has had two days when ice on cars never melted fully so far this winter (one of them Xmas day). So its been milder than normal but not as mild as some suggest IMO.

whitebriar

dopolahpec wrote: »

It's actually looking less grim than it has in a while. Plenty potential for higher ground anyway in next 10 days I'd say

Above 300 mtrs mainly so 99.9% of people will have to drive to isolated areas to visit the snow.
That's always worthwhile but please bring a 4wd or have wheel chains , fully charged mobiles and tell people where you're going,stick to that and give them an approx return time.
Mobile coverage in mountainous areas is notoriously bad.

snowgal

peh pew peh! come onnnnnn real snow, do your thing, its not too late!!

Larbre34

If anyone has learned a lesson over the last 5 years here it is 'always ignore plus one forty-four'

Rebelbrowser

Larbre34 wrote: »

If anyone has learned a lesson over the last 5 years here it is 'always ignore plus one forty-four'

happily - as in this case that means ignoring the return of the atlantic.

Harps

When do we lose the Atlantic influence to begin with?

Westerlies all week going by this mornings models, the main point of interest being a potential storm over the weekend though a lot of variation on the models as to where the low goes, GFS has an odd solution with the low totally stalling to the west for 4 days. Slight potential for a brief easterly later if it goes further south but only returning Atlantic air rather than a proper easterly so nothing too exciting

patneve2

Below average and unsettled the main theme in the next 10 days I think. Not cold enough for decent snow at lower levels, but feeling very cold in NW winds. A depressing outlook.



Westerners should catch a few decent showers though

dacogawa

Bit of a colder run on the GFS for next Tuesday, still nowhere near getting excited about but hopefully the next few runs will build on that!