WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

maquiladora

UKMO looking windy for Sunday.



Sustained winds up to 100 km/h at sea, approaching the west coast.



Just a tad on the wet side too...

pauldry

A long way to go yet but the end of January and start of February will have tides that are very high

Added to this some gale force Northwesterly winds and there could be some more coastal flooding

High tide is over 4m in strandhill from Jan 30 to Feb 2

At the moment it is only 2.8m so the stormy weather on 26th wont be a problem with a swell of about 3m that day

source of all this info is www.magicseaweed.com

Supercell

Listening to the pouring rain outside (working nights and nothing better to do at the moment!) I've a horrible feeling we are going to get winter in March and April like last year. Though if summer turns out the same will take that!

dopolahpec

I'm fairly sure we are staring down the barrel of a huge pattern change after this next stormy few days, with a dice then increasingly loaded toward cold weather. Best set-up in ages.

However, the pervasive mood of cynicism and the tendency toward 'I told you so' when it doesn't transpire is almost a deterrent of discussing it here.


Also, I don't think the 'milder still' in early February that MT is talking about is anymore likely than 'colder still'.

200motels

dopolahpec wrote: »

I'm fairly sure we are staring down the barrel of a huge pattern change after this next stormy few days, with a dice then increasingly loaded toward cold weather. Best set-up in ages.

However, the pervasive mood of cynicism and the tendency toward 'I told you so' when it doesn't transpire is almost a deterrent of discussing it here.


Also, I don't think the 'milder still' in early February that MT is talking about is anymore likely than 'colder still'.

I agree it's 50/50 at the moment and the cold if it sets in could be hard to shift.

wildefalcon

200motels wrote: »

I agree it's 50/50 at the moment and the cold if it sets in could be hard to shift.

I'd prefer it soon, before the spring gets going, then a decent summer!

Nothing worse than a late cold spell, then a summer of unrelenting murkiness.

Not that the Gods of the weather listen to me.

BLIZZARD7

Look at the ECM ensemble means for days 6-7 today people (on phone and dont have much time so no charts)
Uppers of -6c are the average at this range with lows sliding to our south east... The UKMO is not quite as good but is close. The GFS op run has the lows sliding much further north than its ensemble mean. The GEM is unbelievable for snow and cold. Almost all models have a proper split vortex and a massive siberian high from day 7 onwards.

We are very close to a very favourable setup for Snow and Cold- BUT it is highly risky with the tilt of the lows and subsequent placement of cold air and precipitation going to decide if its snow or a washout..

Another trend I have noticed on the models is an increasing tendancy to build heights over greenland at day 10ish.. this isnt showing strongly yet though.

All of this is in FI as its after +120hrs but its the most promising outlook we have had all winter if your looking for snow.



Dan

whitebriar

dopolahpec wrote: »

I'm fairly sure we are staring down the barrel of a huge pattern change after this next stormy few days, with a dice then increasingly loaded toward cold weather. Best set-up in ages.

Seriously?

Also, I don't think the 'milder still' in early February that MT is talking about is anymore likely than 'colder still'.

Ah come on now.You are committing 2 forecast heracys - Calling Fi charts as more than 50% likely ( normally a no no but crazy in the current NH pattern )whilst ignoring the next forthnight of storm maker record cold air entering the western Atlantic.

No disrespect to you meant but people reading this thread need to know that the Science behind weather in analyzing the current ingredients says no to our weather coming from the east or north east (our only true best source of deep winter cold)

It's saying yes to plenty Atlantic storms, the cock block to cold though for the next couple of weeks. A veritable Berlin wall with added electric fences and trained marksmen towards any influence from the east.
If any advance from the east did develop, I can see it struggling to get past north sea oil platforms for now.

I hate being the harbinger of that message but Lets be realistic.

BLIZZARD7

WB- dopalahpec is just commenting on what the models are showing at present. The colder outlook has to be a fairly possible outcome given the ensemble and op run support for it- why else would it feature so much in current output?

Maybe the models are wrong but I why blame people for posting "unrealistic" outlooks when its what some of the top models are showing?



Dan

Rebelbrowser

The 6z GFS has everything much further west.

WB is right that its counter intuitive but you cannot completely write off, imho, 5 consecutive identical runs of the UKMO when all the other models appear to be moving toward its output. This is still a long shot but odds definitely cut now - its probably a 20% shot now for decent cold next week.

One more caveat to add to WB's and Dan's is the lack of any charts yet showing -8s over Ireland (and thats even the favourable ones) though.

dopolahpec

whitebriar wrote: »

Seriously?



Ah come on now.You are committing 2 forecast heracys - Calling Fi charts as more than 50% likely ( normally a no no but crazy in the current NH pattern )whilst ignoring the next forthnight of storm maker record cold air entering the western Atlantic.

No disrespect to you meant but people reading this thread need to know that the Science behind weather in analyzing the current ingredients says no to our weather coming from the east or north east (our only true best source of deep winter cold)

It's saying yes to plenty Atlantic storms, the cock block to cold though for the next couple of weeks. A veritable Berlin wall with added electric fences and trained marksmen towards any influence from the east.
If any advance from the east did develop, I can see it struggling to get past north sea oil platforms for now.

I hate being the harbinger of that message but Lets be realistic.

This is a pretty patronising response to be honest. I don't know what the 2 forecast 'heracys' as you call them are. First of all, there ain't none of us forecasters. Second of all I haven't made any forecast, never mind a 50/50 forecast, or commented on a FI chart. Have you even looked at the ECM, UKMO, and GEM and to a lesser extent the GFS charts this morning? All of them are showing an evolution toward cold, yes with energy in the Atlantic, but with that energy going increasingly under an ever growing block to the north east.

Whatever about Ireland, I would say a cold advance is now likely to get past the north sea oil platforms

SNIP

whitebriar

Just to clarify, I am saying several times now that I don't believe that events to our east can trump the energy that will spill into the Atlantic.
They may (if they happen) have a bearing on Holland's weather in the next few weeks not ours.

History tells us the Atlantic does scupper easterly influences with far far less energy than it is about to be fed.
On that basis I think it's important to inject this realism into the debate.

dopolahpec

For anyone interested, here's the modelled NH profile according to ECM for next 10 days. I honestly do not see 'record cold' pouring into the Atlantic.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

I see a HUGE high pressure building over Russia, and I also see the tendency (an increasing trend is your friend) for low pressure from the Atlantic to go further south into Europe

If anyone can provide me with the model output that's showing a frothing juiced up record breaking Atlantic serving up more than 1 notable storm for anywhere in NW europe over next 10 days on the current runs I'll eat my hat.

talkabout

whitebriar wrote: »

Just to clarify, I am saying several times now that I don't believe that events to our east can trump the energy that will spill into the Atlantic.
They may (if they happen) have a bearing on Holland's weather in the next few weeks not ours.

History tells us the Atlantic does scupper easterly influences with far far less energy than it is about to be fed.
On that basis I think it's important to inject this realism into the debate.

In fairness, I can't see anything wrong with dopolahpec posts. He is presenting a view and is certainly far from ramping. You have presented an alternative view but I certainly don't think its necessary for you to add the following line "to inject this realism into the debate." Personally, I think the models are slowing signs of a colder set up but time will tell. That is the beauty of this game

pistolpetes11

Im kind of with WB here , the upstream is more important than the downstream

Upstream for me being the US eastern sea board and the downstream being Ireland / UK

A rejuvenated , actually its never really been calm , Atlantic 9/10 times will trump anything cold trying come up against it from the East.

Id love for him and I to be wrong but thats how I see it panning out :mad:

whitebriar

I am just disagreeing with certain posts here and saying why.
Forecasters dump near term model output all the time so you can imagine what they think of Fi.
The cold injection is already there from the state's for the Atlantic and more to come.
That more to come is a lot more nailed down than what's going on east of us.
So take the next week in our weather sphere as influenced by Sunday's low and then take the following 2 weeks as a scenario where all that record U.S cold meets the Atlantic and you now have a 3 week window of Atlantic disturbances and because of the depth of that cold,you have a recipe for a very vigorous jet stream plus it's contents heading not too far away from us.

Not saying that's what will happen, I'd wish it didn't but it is the form horse

maquiladora

dopolahpec wrote: »

I'm fairly sure we are staring down the barrel of a huge pattern change after this next stormy few days, with a dice then increasingly loaded toward cold weather. Best set-up in ages.

However, the pervasive mood of cynicism and the tendency toward 'I told you so' when it doesn't transpire is almost a deterrent of discussing it here.

Best set-up in ages? Remember the failed severe cold spells that the models were showing last winter? Now that was FI output worth getting excited about.



Looking at the GFS FI today , all I can see is low after low steaming across the Atlantic as far as the eye can see. How can we expect a cold spell with the models showing a very active Atlantic and no hint at high level blocking?

I don't really understand some of the things I'm reading here to be honest....

patneve2

Outlook looks cool/cold. Prevailing weather from the W and NW, with a bit of a NE flow early next week. It probably won't come to anything, but developments for next week and beyond do look interesting..I'm definitely going to keep an eye on the charts in the next few days. Decent easterly not that far away

average_runner

dopolahpec wrote: »

For anyone interested, here's the modelled NH profile according to ECM for next 10 days. I honestly do not see 'record cold' pouring into the Atlantic.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

I see a HUGE high pressure building over Russia, and I also see the tendency (an increasing trend is your friend) for low pressure from the Atlantic to go further south into Europe

If anyone can provide me with the model output that's showing a frothing juiced up record breaking Atlantic serving up more than 1 notable storm for anywhere in NW europe over next 10 days on the current runs I'll eat my hat.

When you view the models, you need to take in the history of weather patterns. History has shown the Atlantic wins out most the of time but not all of it.

Its like looking at a picture of car, the model looks nice, but does it have an engine!!

dopolahpec

maquiladora wrote: »

Best set-up in ages? Remember the failed severe cold spells that the models were showing last winter? Now that was FI output worth getting excited about.



Looking at the GFS FI today , all I can see is low after low steaming across the Atlantic as far as the eye can see. How can we expect a cold spell with the models showing a very active Atlantic and no hint at high level blocking?

I don't really understand some of the things I'm reading here to be honest....

Look lads, I'm taking a break from this forum, don't see the point in the winter thread anymore, even when there's cross model support for a slow change toward colder conditions in the coming days, maybe not extreme 216hr beasterlies that only showed in FI last year in the ECM for a day or two Maq, a totally unfair comparison, because that failed

The model evolutions I'm commenting on today have yet to be proven wrong.

Show me where I even mentioned snow in the past few days. Or hyped anything other than an evolution toward something colder

I think half the problem here is people are talking to themselves

So hope yis don't depress yourselves too much in the coming weeks.

Harps

The only way to get an easterly with an active Atlantic is if the high over Scandinavia builds towards Greenland and the Atlantic lows go underneath like what happened last March. With the orientation of the PV lobe over North America it's going to keep pouring cold air over the North Atlantic so not much hope of any heights building there in the short/medium term.

Slow moving, almost stagnant lows look to be the dominant feature of the next 10 days so cool and showery the general theme. Maybe a decent storm on Sunday though it looks less likely this morning

kittyn

Another experienced poster taking a break ....... This place will be a complete ghost town soon

cherryghost

kittyn wrote: »

Another experienced poster taking a break ....... This place will be a complete ghost town soon

tbh he threw the cradle out the pram after maq clearly pointed out there's nothing on the horizon, and he's right. If people are going to act that way and close their accounts because of stupid niggles, the forum is better off without them.

BLIZZARD7

cherryghost wrote: »

tbh he threw the cradle out the pram after maq clearly pointed out there's nothing on the horizon, and he's right. If people are going to act that way and close their accounts because of stupid niggles, the forum is better off without them.

Maq showed a chart from 2012, hardly clearly showing nothing on the horizon. What do you mean by nothing anyway? There is certainly no mild weather on the Horizon anyway...



Dan

sully2010

cherryghost wrote: »

tbh he threw the cradle out the pram after maq clearly pointed out there's nothing on the horizon, and he's right. If people are going to act that way and close their accounts because of stupid niggles, the forum is better off without them.

How can a forum be better off without someone who is only putting across his point of view. Thats a great comment from a mod. Why have so many great posters closed their accounts or don't post anymore? I wouldn't call it just a few niggles

This forum really has gone to the dogs, the best posters have all but gone, its just left with a bunch of condescending know it alls.

Red Pepper

dopolahpec wrote: »

I think half the problem here is people are talking to themselves

That's for sure!

Villain

tbh I agree with whitebriar and that's based on the small bit of experience I have, the models are not the be all and end all. You have to use your own experience and look at the whole picture especially in unusual setups where models don't enough historical data e.g. the crazy cold to our West.

whitebriar

sully2010 wrote: »

How can a forum be better off without someone who is only putting across his point of view. Thats a great comment from a mod. Why have so many great posters closed their accounts or don't post anymore? I wouldn't call it just a few niggles

This forum really has gone to the dogs, the best posters have all but gone, its just left with a bunch of condescending know it alls.

Sorry but I have to take exception this comment.
I have put my view.
It was a contrarian view to some posters here and one of them seems to think a contrarian view is personal and does what you've done there and played the man instead of the ball.
It's not rocket science to discover who is in the wrong there (and I mean in their attitude to debate not to what weather we will have)
No amount of toys out of the pram will influence the weather.

It's time that attitude ended here and people copped on.

For what it's worth,I like reading posts from people who interpret things from a cold bias even if I think they are wrong(and mostly I hope they are right but always I submit to my own logic)But for heavens sake,why should things be taken personally? It's only analysis at the end of the day.
Some people want no criticism of their take at all,a bit like china.
Going down that road would make a mockery of this forum.

This morning I read on Nw,a big post count poster saying the rain in western GB wasn't going to reach Eastern England... There's delusion for you.Its an interesting debate over there if you know how to filter out the hope casting and it is hope cast central probably aided by the fact that most of the posters there live in areas that can get continental chills when we won't so I suppose there's more grounds to their hoping.

Musicman2000

dopolahpec wrote: »

Look lads, I'm taking a break from this forum, don't see the point in the winter thread anymore, even when there's cross model support for a slow change toward colder conditions in the coming days, maybe not extreme 216hr beasterlies that only showed in FI last year in the ECM for a day or two Maq, a totally unfair comparison, because that failed

The model evolutions I'm commenting on today have yet to be proven wrong.

Show me where I even mentioned snow in the past few days. Or hyped anything other than an evolution toward something colder

I think half the problem here is people are talking to themselves

So hope yis don't depress yourselves too much in the coming weeks.

I can't blame you. Everyone on here is entitled to their opinion . A storm is forecast for Sunday but nothing like what we had over christmas or early January.
Looking west is not the whole picture. The Scandi block is proven to be a lot more stubborn and even edging further west which a lot of the models under estimated.
Will we get a cold easterly next week with a foot of snow? what some of us would like to see.
I don't think it will happen next week, but we should get a second bite of the cherry come mid February with plenty of wave 1 activity hammering the vortex and we might be even lucky to see a start warming but if this is favourable for our little Island who knows.

Mid week next week should be cold with some wintry showers ,even down to lower levels in the north and east. But it looks we will be on the milder side of the deep cold with the UK getting a taster of -8 850's.

So winter is not over. Its only getting started in my opinion. Lets see what the 12s runs have to say.

odyboody

Come on lads. We need a bit of discussion and properly explained opinions, both sides of an argument. After all if we all knew exactly what was going to happen there would be no need for models or forecasters.

After rational arguments have been made most of us reject them out of hand and believe the one we want to see happen.