WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

sully2010

whitebriar wrote: »

Sorry but I have to take exception this comment.
I have put my view.
It was a contrarian view to some posters here and one of them seems to think a contrarian view is personal and does what you've done there and played the man instead of the ball.
It's not rocket science to discover who is in the wrong there (and I mean in their attitude to debate not to what weather we will have)
No amount of toys out of the pram will influence the weather.

It's time that attitude ended here and people copped on.

For what it's worth,I like reading posts from people who interpret things from a cold bias even if I think they are wrong(and mostly I hope they are right but always I submit to my own logic)But for heavens sake,why should things be taken personally? It's only analysis at the end of the day.
Some people want no criticism of their take at all,a bit like china.
Going down that road would make a mockery of this forum.

This morning I read on Nw,a big post count poster saying the rain in western GB wasn't going to reach Eastern England... There's delusion for you.Its an interesting debate over there if you know how to filter out the hope casting and it is hope cast central probably aided by the fact that most of the posters there live in areas that can get continental chills when we won't so I suppose there's more grounds to their hoping.

Absolutely nothing wrong with a contrarian view and essential to any forum debate. The word I used was condescending and I wasn't referring to anyone in particular. But you see the same posters on NW too.

There is a reason why so many great posters have left since 2010 and its not just a case of throwing the toys out of the pram. I myself am getting used to and enjoying reading and understanding charts but I'm damned if I'm posting my views here and that's probably why there is a serious lack of newbie weather posters, if fact there has been a few until they have been shot down too.

The weather is the weather, everyone has an opinion on it but no one really knows which way it is going to go outside the reliable timeframe.

Villain

sully2010 wrote: »

Absolutely nothing wrong with a contrarian view and essential to any forum debate. The word I used was condescending and I wasn't referring to anyone in particular. But you see the same posters on NW too.

There is a reason why so many great posters have left since 2010 and its not just a case of throwing the toys out of the pram. I myself am getting used to and enjoying reading and understanding charts but I'm damned if I'm posting my views here and that's probably why there is a serious lack of newbie weather posters, if fact there has been a few until they have been shot down too.

The weather is the weather, everyone has an opinion on it but no one really knows which way it is going to go outside the reliable timeframe.

There are a lot of reasons why people left and while everyone has an opinion everyone is also entitled to challenge those opinions especially when some posters browse a thread and see a chart posted and someone saying cold and snow are coming when they may actually be looking at +200hrs.

Checks and balances are required and like every forum here you have to be prepared to have your opinion challenged be that on weather or anything else.

snaps

I'll send you some cold and snow.....last week has been sub zero, todays high -9. Expecting -20 by Sunday. South east poland. Cold here is so much easier to cope with than in ireland. Must be low humidity? Been out skiing and sledging with kids all afternoon, kids all came in with rosey cheeks, I came in with frosty beard!

Elmer Blooker

Villain wrote: »

You have to use your own experience and look at the whole picture especially in unusual setups where models don't enough historical data e.g. the crazy cold to our West.

Well put V - as long as that damn Azores plagues us any cold spells will be short lived and we will be back to square one!
Look up the archives for any cold spell and you will find LP in the Azores area.
I love this site for historical weather events.
http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/britweather_months.htm

whitebriar

sully2010 wrote: »

in fact there has been a few until they have been shot down too.e.

You mean you want people to post and have no one say they're possibly wrong because in another posters opinion, of x,y or z they're ignoring?
Come on now...that's ridiculous.

sully2010

whitebriar wrote: »

You mean you want people to post and have no one say they're possibly wrong because in another posters opinion, of x,y or z they're ignoring?
Come on now...that's ridiculous.

Its very simple what I was saying. People posting in a condescending manner toward other posters. Nothing to do with opionions, being contrarion etc.

doccy

People like Wb, Maq, Ian etc offer a great deal of knowledge on this forum, so if they offer a dose of reality I would be minded to take heed. It's a refreshing change to NW actually. Shoot down any cold charts over there and its like a virtual lynch mob form. it would be a shame to see similar here.

The charts are trending colder, and even the british met are becoming less firm about the timing of an atlantic break through (at least a certain poster on NW says). Who knows maybe the cold will end up closer to Dublin than Utrecht

relaxed

Another train wreck thread sadly.

Lumi

Some valid points of view have been aired over the last few pages but its time to get the thread back on topic.

Challenging each other's views and offering different interpretations of the models is what this forum is all about and it gives us all an opportunity to learn so long as it's done in a reasonably civil and unpatronising manner.
Storming off over a difference of opinion achieves absolutely nothing.

Right, back to Winter 2013/14....

Kippure

Some nice snow showers in that flow over IRELAND.

budweiser6

Ok as a pathalogical lurker on here I'm jumping out of the cupboard and having the guts to ask a question..

@Kippure - would you mind explaining how or where you see the snow showers over ireland on this map?

I really hope everyone get's back on this thread - as I know nothing I depend on all you guys to know something!

I LOVE this weather chat and hoping I learn some more....

Kippure

budweiser6 wrote: »

Ok as a pathalogical lurker on here I'm jumping out of the cupboard and having the guts to ask a question..

@Kippure - would you mind explaining how or where you see the snow showers over ireland on this map?

I really hope everyone get's back on this thread - as I know nothing I depend on all you guys to know something!

I LOVE this weather chat and hoping I learn some more....

Minus 5 850,s over Ireland. Strong winds. Will rattle in some beeffy wintry showers and snow over high ground. About 150 metres or so.

whitebriar

Ok let's take a different tack here,a different way of saying what is my opinion.
There is no denying that there are goings on out East.
There's now a well of deep cold out there to tap into.
There is an undeniable trend for models to push that cold westward.

Unfortunately there are significant factors pertinent to Ireland but not the Eastern UK,that would make it very difficult for that cold to affect us in the next fortnight or so and maybe longer.
That's because Science tells us all the ingredients are there for Atlantic depressions to form and history tells us that in far weaker Atlantic energy scenarios than now and with far stronger westward pushes of Euro/Scandi air than now,those depressions have cut off continental flows to Ireland whilst parts of England have blizzards.
I am afraid that's where we are at the moment unless something unusual and significant changes things.
Another thing,there's even less point raising glasses at Fi charts when t48 is significantly unagreed.
All I ask is people take those points on board,they are reasonable in my opinion.

I am kind of tired of this now if you don't mind,so I will leave you all be for a while

Weathering

I can't believe the post about the Donegal Postman/MT was deleted. Nothing bad or hateful was said. Apologies I can't remember who posted but it's certainly unjust and proved the posters point that you can't mention a certain individual predictions(unless its praise)or you get in trouble while it's okay to discuss the forecasts of ken ring and the Postman without a word being said. It's actually quite pathetic. No doubt this post will suffer a similar fate but I'd expect nothing less

The post you are referring to was deleted for a clear breach of forum charter - not for discussing long range forecasts

"9. It is against the rules to argue with a moderator action in such a way that it drags a discussion off-topic from its original goal (short: never argue with a mod in-thread - it almost always leads to a ban). Always attempt to message the moderator via the Private Messaging system before making a scene out of something."

Harps

No real change on this evenings model runs, a cool, unsettled week ahead with wintry showers. The high out east isn't budging so it looks like the lows will stall over us, could be a few interesting days depending on how Sundays storm behaves

Villain

Weathering wrote: »

I can't believe the post about the Donegal Postman/MT was deleted. Nothing bad or hateful was said. Apologies I can't remember who posted but it's certainly unjust and proved the posters point that you can't mention a certain individual predictions(unless its praise)or you get in trouble while it's okay to discuss the forecasts of ken ring and the Postman without a word being said. It's actually quite pathetic. No doubt this post will suffer a similar fate but I'd expect nothing less

Nothing new around here sadly

icesnowfrost

Should these lows as they sink south not pull in a north east air flow on Tuesday/Wednesday ?

pistolpetes11

Villain wrote: »

Nothing new around here sadly

If you wish to open a thread discussing Long Range Forecasters then work away ,

Keep this on topic of the Winter and that keep's everyone happy .

There was difference of opinion here today and thats why a poster left , Su Campu actually left because he felt there was a huge cold bias and whenever he posted his realistic views and opinions he would get lynched by the cold mob.

The user base has matured a lot in here over the last few years and a more realistic approach on the charts is taken , unfortunately this is usually that the mild will win out .

There will be a difference of opinion on this and debate is always welcomed but lets not take it personally (not aimed at you but the board in general )

Speaking of LRF's briefly , I dont think any of them have been on song and thats including MT , but thats just my opinion.

One last point to the poster talking about the MOD , that person is not a MOD of this forum , just a normal poster like the rest of us ( Im not typing in Bold)

Villain

It's winter weather thread surely discussing LFT of winter are on topic??

Also has weathering been banned?, no sign of an infraction for the post?

Not discussing issues and throwing bans around doesn't help anyone and only leads to a repeat of 2010 when the forum lost a lot of good members.

Red Pepper

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Speaking of LRF's briefly , I dont think any of them have been on song and thats including MT , but thats just my opinion.

Fair call but I think the point here is that most posters would be afraid to criticise MT about anything due to the aura that surrounds him on this forum. I rarely see any post mortems on any of his predictions yet postman and ken ring and even met eireann get ridiculed weekly.

pistolpetes11

Red Pepper wrote: »

Fair call but I think the point here is that most posters would be afraid to criticise MT about anything due to the aura that surrounds him on this forum. I rarely see any post mortems on any of his predictions yet postman and ken ring and even met eireann get ridiculed weekly.

Its off topic but there is a feedback thread on his forecasts if I remember correctly

Harps

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Should these lows as they sink south not pull in a north east air flow on Tuesday/Wednesday ?

Looks like it will all right but there'll still be Atlantic air in the mix so unless it sets up to deliver a prolonged easterly then it won't drag any proper continental cold towards us. For that to happen you'd want the hihigh over Russia/Scandanavia to start building towards Greenland which would help to keep the low spinning instead of just filling as it does on the models at the moment

pistolpetes11

Villain wrote: »

It's winter weather thread surely discussing LFT of winter are on topic??

Also has weathering been banned?, no sign of an infraction for the post?

Not discussing issues and throwing bans around doesn't help anyone and only leads to a repeat of 2010 when the forum lost a lot of good members.

I think this thread is more for chart and synoptics at this stage , The LRF's are bust , all thats left is the " I told you so"'s " "Why didnt it snow " type of posts when it comes to LRF's

This isnt the post mortem its an ongoing thread thread for whats happening ahead of us ( again Im speaking as a poster not a mod here)

Im not sure , I would presume so for that type of post

There will be a feedback thread at the end of the winter , discussing issues and bans will be for there.

Villain

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I think this thread is more for chart and synoptics at this stage , The LRF's are bust , all thats left is the " I told you so"'s " "Why didnt it snow " type of posts when it comes to LRF's

This isnt the post mortem its an ongoing thread thread for whats happening ahead of us ( again Im speaking as a poster not a mod here)

Well it can also show how useless LRF have been and why people shouldn't bother with them for rest of winter??

Im not sure , I would presume so for that type of post

There will be a feedback thread at the end of the winter , discussing issues and bans will be for there.

So you don't know if he was banned and I don see any reason why he would be or why who ever banned him can't say so in the thread I thought that was normal?

Why wait until after winter for feedback you could be down a lot of members by then ?

Oscar Bravo

Villain, it will only be the mods left if they keep going they way they are lol

pistolpetes11

Villain wrote: »

Well it can also show how useless LRF have been and why people shouldn't bother with them for rest of winter??

So you don't know if he was banned and I don see any reason why he would be or why who ever banned him can't say so in the thread I thought that was normal?

Why wait until after winter for feedback you could be down a lot of members by then ?

Im not one for " I told you so's" personally ,

Id say if you speak nicely to Lumi she might open the forum feedback thread now and you's can air your dirty laundry there :P

delw

Jaysus lads the lack of real cold & snow getting to people or what :eek:
Anyway even if the cold were to make it far enough west we would probably end up on the wrong side of the battle ground as usual,we should be used to it by now

doccy

I hope we do get a cold blast in the next few weeks, that vortex in Canada could give a repeat of last year. I don't really fancy another wintery march and april again this year

H2UMrsRobinson

I just want the grey to go away, it's so bad for the soul. Ireland is so often in the doldrums and it's not the best backdrop for this beautiful country.

pauldry

Weather is like politics, it splits opinion

Lots of rain sleet and hail and wind this weekend

Beyond that colder 5c and wintry showers

No big freeze but thats just next week