WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

Iancar29 · 30-01-2014 2:16pm

Similar agreement with the EURO 4 model.

I dont expect much to make it to dublin though.

west side of wicklow mountains should fare well due to orographic uplift.

whitebriar · 30-01-2014 2:31pm

I suspect the level of maratime mixing in the lower athmosphere (0asl to 1000ft asl) from a southerly will scupper any chance of snow below 2000ft asl in Wicklow

Iancar29 · 30-01-2014 3:02pm

whitebriar wrote: »

I suspect the level of maratime mixing in the lower athmosphere (0asl to 1000ft asl) from a southerly will scupper any chance of snow below 2000ft asl in Wicklow

2000ft ? .... Bit steep no? 1000 max id say if forecasted dew points and thickness say strong. :cool:

Oneiric 3 · 30-01-2014 4:12pm

Projected 925 temps (GFS) for 6z Saturday. A small window over the NW/N/NE before warmer air mass takes hold. Dps likely to be lowest in these regions also due to relatively long land track of that cold southerly flow.

whitebriar · 30-01-2014 4:52pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

2000ft ? .... Bit steep no? 1000 max id say if forecasted dew points and thickness say strong. :cool:

yup,I'd say 2000ft for settling and 1500ft for falling.
Down to 1000ft around Sally gap due to it always borrowing kippures weather,much higher right beside it and other areas in Wicklow at that height near a mountain.
Roundwood mostly sleety rain.

patneve2 · 30-01-2014 5:14pm

Looking at the latest runs it seems that land flooding might become an issue sometime in the next ten days.

Regarding late Friday/Early Sat snow I see wet snow/sleet at lower levels, with accumulations above 200 mt (if charts don't change).

highdef · 30-01-2014 5:20pm

Thinking much the same with regards to heights. North and east midlands being the best areas, I would imagine. Plus the Dublin and Wicklow mountains above about 300/400 metres. Anyone see what the latest GFS has thrown out for the east midlands on Monday????

whitebriar · 30-01-2014 6:31pm

patneve2 wrote: »

Looking at the latest runs it seems that land flooding might become an issue sometime in the next ten days.

Regarding late Friday/Early Sat snow I see wet snow/sleet at lower levels, with accumulations above 200 mt (if charts don't change).

BBC news 24 animations which are usually pretty accurate have a very brief tiny white spot in all the rain roughly where lugnaquilla is.
That sounds about right,the immediate origin of the surface flow to 1000ft will be the Celtic sea.
In wicklow anyway,major towns like Arklow,Wicklow,Grey stones and Bray will have rain,briefly sleety maybe.
I'd be surprised if the top of the sugar loaf saw snow but it might there.

patneve2 · 30-01-2014 6:49pm

whitebriar wrote: »

BBC news 24 animations which are usually pretty accurate have a very brief tiny white spot in all the rain roughly where lugnaquilla is.
That sounds about right,the immediate origin of the surface flow to 1000ft will be the Celtic sea.
In wicklow anyway,major towns like Arklow,Wicklow,Grey stones and Bray will have rain,briefly sleety maybe.
I'd be surprised if the top of the sugar loaf saw snow but it might there.

Are you referring to tomorrow morning or late Friday/early Saturday? I was discussing potential of some wintry precipitation (I know, it's pretty sad) crossing the country late on Friday and into the early hours of Saturday morning. EURO4 and GFS 12Z still give a decent opportunity of higher ground snow (mentioned also by met.ie). So I think you misunderstood the time/frame. Yes, tomorrow morning will only see snow very high up.

Iancar29 · 30-01-2014 10:21pm

highdef wrote: »

Thinking much the same with regards to heights. North and east midlands being the best areas, I would imagine. Plus the Dublin and Wicklow mountains above about 300/400 metres. Anyone see what the latest GFS has thrown out for the east midlands on Monday????

Yeah , mondays surface pressure looks fairly odd to actually go that way but the precip forecast is very similar to 23rd of Jan last year when the dublin mountains got a nearly a foot of snow over about 36hrs.

:cool:

whitebriar · 30-01-2014 10:37pm

Sorry lads my bad,I was posting from my phone and referring to tonight/tomorrow.
Chances are much much better for Friday into Saturday when I would expect the snow level to drop to 600ft asl at times.Certainly plenty up on the military road.
You won't be building any snowmen in Arklow or Bray though.

Red Pepper · 30-01-2014 10:44pm

whitebriar wrote: »

Sorry lads my bad,I was posting from my phone and referring to tonight/tomorrow.
Chances are much much better for Friday into Saturday when I would expect the snow level to drop to 600ft asl at times.Certainly plenty up on the military road.
You won't be building any snowmen in Arklow or Bray though.

Will Galway get any snow? Even at high ground?

Smidge · 30-01-2014 10:51pm

Is it really time to dust off the lamposts?

marno21 · 31-01-2014 12:50am

What's everyone's view of this GFS from tomorrow night? Surely this won't come true

Iancar29 · 31-01-2014 1:21am

marno21 wrote: »

What's everyone's view of this GFS from tomorrow night? Surely this won't come true

Its gonna be a nowcast event watching temps and dewpoints . But yeah , 1-3cm is possible , mainly in the midlands and high areas.

Elmer Blooker · 31-01-2014 11:11am

I love this image, it has the most perfect textbook example of the Polar Front Jet in the bottom left corner as the lows queue up.
PS. will it snow in my backyard?

blackbird99 · 31-01-2014 11:14am

snow line on the galtees this morning, looking like a bad weekend for the winter walking festival,
but maybe this is what they want.
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Iancar29 · 31-01-2014 3:23pm

High Ground in the scottish highlands currently...

http://trafficscotland.org/map/?x=270000&y=755000&scale=5348388&itemtypeids=26

squarecircles · 31-01-2014 8:53pm

Wet snow falling in louisburgh co. Mayo @ sea level.one mile from the coast.

NinjaN · 31-01-2014 8:56pm

I have the weather pro app on my phone (same as raintoday.co.uk) and with the premium, it's looking like any precip hitting West coast in about an hour's time will be snow, then it's moving across country. Can't see as far as it reaching the east coast just yet...