WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

ninebeanrows

Unfortunately looks like we are going to have some synoptics that we would be gasping at in winter in the next few weeks. Lets hope it's a long term trend and won't be wasted on.

Really i want to see these synoptics from November 20th onwards!

Nothing would beat some -10c 850hPa's over a +12c Irish sea in late November

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Weathercheck wrote: »

Unfortunately looks like we are going to have some synoptics that we would be gasping at in winter in the next few weeks. Lets hope it's a long term trend and won't be wasted on.

Really i want to see these synoptics from November 20th onwards!

Nothing would beat some -10c 850hPa's over a +12c Irish sea in late November

Ah could you imagine !

This better lock in good and proper !!!!

Larbre34

We don't have to imagine, we caught the live show in Nov 2010! Although I imagine the sea temps will be higher still this year, unless we get a persistent cooling between now and then

Kenring

mick145 wrote: »

Anyone have any kind of clue what weather the winter will be like?

Winter not expected to be severe.
A white Xmas is unlikely except in some isolated areas, but the last two days of the year may bring brief snow.
Winter may serve some very cold spells and with rain, but not much snow is on the cards until the second half of February.
Frosts may keep revisiting Ireland well into May.

LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW
November, last week
December, last couple of days
January, around 8th-9th
Feb, third week
March, first week and after 19th

Larbre34

'give hostage to fortune'

defn. (idiomatic) To take an action or make a statement that is risky because it could cause you trouble later.

Red Pepper

Kenring wrote: »

Winter not expected to be severe.
A white Xmas is unlikely except in some isolated areas, but the last two days of the year may bring brief snow.
Winter may serve some very cold spells and with rain, but not much snow is on the cards until the second half of February.
Frosts may keep revisiting Ireland well into May.

LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW
November, last week
December, last couple of days
January, around 8th-9th
Feb, third week
March, first week and after 19th

Hi Ken, by your reckoning, "higher ground" should get a few decent dumps of snow with cold/wet? I do love my winter hiking.

relaxed

Kenring wrote: »

Winter not expected to be severe.
A white Xmas is unlikely except in some isolated areas, but the last two days of the year may bring brief snow.
Winter may serve some very cold spells and with rain, but not much snow is on the cards until the second half of February.
Frosts may keep revisiting Ireland well into May.

LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW
November, last week
December, last couple of days
January, around 8th-9th
Feb, third week
March, first week and after 19th

We are probably going to get a severe winter with lots of snow so:D

tylercollins

relaxed wrote: »

We are probably going to get a severe winter with lots of snow so:D

average_runner

Larbre34 wrote: »

We don't have to imagine, we caught the live show in Nov 2010! Although I imagine the sea temps will be higher still this year, unless we get a persistent cooling between now and then

2010 October was mild, remember it from the marathon trianing

whitebriar

I know its changing tomorrow,but its been un naturally warm of late (something Ken said we'd not see anymore a few weeks ago...).
Have I a wierd feeling that usually after such a long spell like this one ,a completely contrasting weather type may happen down the tracks to equalise things?

Lumi

Mod Note
Some posts moved to Autumn Weather 2013

sdanseo

Kenring wrote: »

Winter not expected to be severe.
A white Xmas is unlikely except in some isolated areas, but the last two days of the year may bring brief snow.
Winter may serve some very cold spells and with rain, but not much snow is on the cards until the second half of February.
Frosts may keep revisiting Ireland well into May.

LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW
November, last week
December, last couple of days
January, around 8th-9th
Feb, third week
March, first week and after 19th

Are you really going to predict, to the nearest couple of days, a snow event 6 months from now?

Please.

Duiske

Kenring wrote: »

Winter not expected to be severe.
A white Xmas is unlikely except in some isolated areas, but the last two days of the year may bring brief snow.
Winter may serve some very cold spells and with rain, but not much snow is on the cards until the second half of February.
Frosts may keep revisiting Ireland well into May.

LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW
November, last week
December, last couple of days
January, around 8th-9th
Feb, third week
March, first week and after 19th

Not sure if you are aware Ken, but apparently Electric Ireland are under the impression you have forecast a "White December". Just received a e-mail from them which starts...

Dear (Duiske),

Apparently, Ken Ring, a weather guru from New Zealand, has predicted a white December for Ireland this year. If you take his word then now’s a good time to take a look at your energy bills and think about what you can do to lower them. In this issue of Switched On, we’ll talk you through the cheapest way to heat one room, give you 10 top tips to save on your heating bills and show how much your kitchen costs to run per month.

jaffusmax

Exciting times ahead!!!! (I hope)

maquiladora

jaffusmax wrote: »

Exciting times ahead!!!! (I hope)

It changes every 6 hours, and usually flips from above average to below average (or the other way round) more than once every 24 hours.... Provides nice eye candy sometimes though!

jaffusmax

maquiladora wrote: »

It changes every 6 hours, and usually flips from above average to below average (or the other way round) more than once every 24 hours.... Provides nice eye candy sometimes though!

Agreed, yet it is hard not to get hopes up with the charts the CFS has been consistently throwing out for 2 months now. Either way you look at it there appears to be more reason to be optimistic about a cold winter at this stage then many others!

My main concern is that Ireland may be to far West and will just miss out again on severe cold outbreaks! Yet I do believe overall I feel we are in for a Below Avg Temp Winter.

Conor30

"Scotland braced for worst winter in decades"

The Daily Express at it again!!

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/436109/Scotland-braced-for-worst-winter-in-decades

maquiladora

Thats some temperature anomaly for Russia in Feb from the CFS!

Kenring

Duiske wrote: »

Not sure if you are aware Ken, but apparently Electric Ireland are under the impression you have forecast a "White December". Just received a e-mail from them which starts...

No, I was not aware of that. I have had no connection with Electric Ireland. It seems I am often misquoted in media and sceptics forums (not referring to this board) for the purpose of others establishing their own points.
What I have said here about winter is what I have always said. As for Xmas day itself, undoubtedly some will get a whitish Xmas but I don't think all of Ireland will, in the manner that the phrase 'a white Xmas' is used, such as we witnessed in 2010. I have subzeros around Xmas day, but a scarce amount of precipitation across the country, with the most and therefore the greater chances of real snow (as against cold rain, frost, sleet, blizzards, flurries etc) in SW and S central counties.
As for a white December, I can't see that happening all month, as my database for chances of subzeros indicate 15-23 December as the most likely, also the last two days.

icesnowfrost

Already the papers and fb on about a cold snowy winter ahead lol as much as I love cold snowy winters I think it's a bit to early to tell just yet

jaffusmax

I really suggest people at least listen to Simon Keelings Rant about "Rogue" Newspapers and People spreading crap about mini ice age winters coming our way at the start of this vid!

Clonmel1000

Facebook is seen as gospel these days#sad!

Tindie

What dull day today

but This did cheer me up, it's just for fun

You remember the Santa think they had on Met check last year

Well they got something a bit different this year!
http://www.willigetawhitechristmas.com/

At moment the 50% Chance of snow for Birmingham

lapua20grain

Tindie wrote: »

What dull day today

but This did cheer me up, it's just for fun

You remember the Santa think they had on Met check last year

Well they got something a bit different this year!
http://www.willigetawhitechristmas.com/

At moment the 50% Chance of snow for Birmingham

just checked it myself 50% of snow for Dublin as well good for a bit of crack:)

Rock Lesnar

Tindie wrote: »

What dull day today

but This did cheer me up, it's just for fun

You remember the Santa think they had on Met check last year

Well they got something a bit different this year!
http://www.willigetawhitechristmas.com/

At moment the 50% Chance of snow for Birmingham

Oh what have you done, You do know now some on here will use this as gospel that we will get some snow this year :pac:.

50% chance for Navan

vickers209

50% chance for everywhere!! Even Ibiza Spain:rolleyes:

Kenring

lapua20grain wrote: »

just checked it myself 50% of snow for Dublin as well good for a bit of crack:)

I would concur for Xmas Day with wind and snow for Birmingham, but none for Dublin.

Iancar29

Kenring wrote: »

I would concur for Xmas Day with wind and snow for Birmingham, but none for Dublin.

Sorry i disagree , there'll be a good chance of snow at 4.06pm Xmas day...

<SNIP>

finnbob123

hey, ken love your weather reports but I see your in the irish news a lot lately http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/a-white-december-but-no-snow-on-christmas-day-243168.html and also got an email from electric Ireland supposedly quoting you.

whitebriar

Metcheck just reposts the latest gfs every couple of hours,and makes a forecast on that which is usually wholly inaccurate for that reason,I don't know why anyone serious about weather,apart from laughs bothers with it.

As for the Santa site they've created above,that's actually meant to be a joke (I hope).
25% chance of snow in Cairo and Mumbai... Clearly randomly set up to reduce the chance based on lattitude/longitude...at least they put that in there in the 5 mins or so they took to set it up...
Its a sad day here when people put faith in a joke game like that...