A reasonably reliable method to predict points (Version 3!)

partyatmygaff

It's back!

For those of you who aren't familiar with my "Reasonably reliable method to predict points", it's a survey i've ran for the past two years which helps predict the points for Medicine, Pharmacy and Dental Science to a fairly high degree of accuracy.

To understand how it works and see how accurate it was the past two years, check out the 2011 and 2012 threads. It's well worth the few seconds it takes to fill out and share.

Pharmacy
Data/Estimation
http://goo.gl/L5F9iJ
Survey
http://goo.gl/WgMXx1

Medicine
Data/Estimation
http://goo.gl/oaAsW1
Survey
http://goo.gl/7pBEa4

Dental Science / Dentistry
Data/Estimation
http://goo.gl/rVnS5E
Survey
http://goo.gl/45XZQO


If you want to share, please share this thread and not the estimation or survey links.

Good luck everyone!

Hermione Granger

Thanks so much for doing this ! Fantastic idea Are you assuming that people have put down the 5 medicine courses ?

partyatmygaff

Hermione Granger wrote: »

Thanks so much for doing this ! Fantastic idea Are you assuming that people have put down the 5 medicine courses ?

I am. Most people applying for Med put down all five courses so it's a reasonable assumption to make.

kmf2012

Thanks so much for doing this!

LostBoy101

Computer Science course are defintely on the rise again this year.

Oween

So how much entries have to be made before you make an estimation for some of the Medicine courses?

Vito Corleone

Do a few other courses as well, sure why not?

CatEyed92

Nursing?

Kafka11

Typical, people are making a joke of the survey now. I mean someone getting 1200 and someone getting 2......

partyatmygaff

Vito Corleone wrote: »

Do a few other courses as well, sure why not?

CatEyed92 wrote: »

Nursing?

I don't know enough about other courses to run a survey for them unfortunately.

Kafka11 wrote: »

Typical, people are making a joke of the survey now. I mean someone getting 1200 and someone getting 2......

Dealt with already.

Anyway, very early estimations (which should be taken with a very big pinch of salt) are starting to come in. We still haven't anywhere near enough the required numbers for an accurate estimation for any course just yet.

Pharmacy
TCD: 575
RCSI: -
UCC: -

Medicine
TCD: 748
RCSI: 742
UCD: -
UCC: -
NUIG: -

Dental Science
TCD: 595
UCC: -

waiting4

Think in med spreadsheet no.80 and 81 are duplicates

partyatmygaff

Don't think that's likely, half an hour between them, different first preference and different LC points.

waiting4

partyatmygaff wrote: »

Don't think that's likely, half an hour between them, different first preference and different LC points.

Oh read this on my phone maybe its wrobg but theres only a few seconds between them same scores and both UCD theyre actually 82 83

Hermione Granger

773 galway?

Slow Show

Hermione Granger wrote: »

773 galway?

I know people going for Galway with higher than that unfortunately.

Hermione Granger

Slow Show wrote: »

I know people going for Galway with higher than that unfortunately.

So according to the estimations there is going to be a 28 /29 point jump for galway :P

yournerd

Law?

Eurovisionmad

yournerd wrote: »

Law?

I'm gonna hazard a guess and say the reason the OP doesn't do law and other course is that there's so many different combinations like "Law and Irish" "Law International" "Law and Business" etc etc that it makes it impossible to get enough people and their results in any one law course, to make a prediction.

Just Like Heaven

Hermione Granger wrote: »

So according to the estimations there is going to be a 28 /29 point jump for galway :P

Down to 758 already. This is great craic. I could watch it all day.

partyatmygaff

Pharmacy
TCD: 570 - Plausible
RCSI: - Needs more entries but i'd say at least 5-10 points below TCD is likely
UCC: 570 Plausible

Medicine
TCD: 748 Plausible
RCSI: 744 Maybe just a bit too high?
UCD: 746 Plausible
UCC: - Still not enough entries
NUIG: 740 Plausible

Dental Science
TCD: 580 Plausible but maybe a bit too low?
UCC: - Needs more entries

sleepyheadh

partyatmygaff wrote: »

Medicine
TCD: 748 Plausible
RCSI: 744 Maybe just a bit too high?
UCD: 746 Plausible
UCC: - Still not enough entries
NUIG: 740 Plausible

i hope you are right

Glitt_123

partyatmygaff wrote: »

Dental Science
TCD: 580 Plausible but maybe a bit too low?
UCC: - Needs more entries

So would ucc be lower than 580 do you think?

partyatmygaff

Glitt_123 wrote: »

So would ucc be lower than 580 do you think?

580 is plausible, less likely to drop below that (although i've very few entries for UCC so far).

Slow Show

Hermione Granger wrote: »

So according to the estimations there is going to be a 28 /29 point jump for galway :P

Heh sorry thought you were on about someone applying with that, didn't realise we could see estimations!

sleepyheadh

im so sorry i ever doubted you, your prediction was amazing and spot on. still not 100% sure how you guys did it but my god, you did a great job. cheers mate!

partyatmygaff

Final estimations as of last night

Medicine


Pharmacy


Dental Science


Turnout a bit lower than usual this year so it wasn't as accurate as it normally is but certainly close enough given the numbers (and dead on accurate for the courses with enough people surveyed). Hope it was some help to you all the past few days.

Kafka11

Congratulations. Excellent estimates. Your RCSI 744 had me sweating I would be hit by random selection but, as it was 742and I got 744, I got my place. Thanks for your work.