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All kinds of everything, ML's log
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24-08-2013 5:58pm#1
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Mountainlad wrote: »Norwich v Bury; Norwich win 3/10 WIN
Freiburg v Bayern Munchen; Bayern win-to-nil 1/1 LOSE
€5.45 Double @ 8/5 LOSE
Bank= -25.45
Ouch. Bayern drawing 1-1 with a 86th minute equalizer from Freiburg. Norwich won with a bizarre 6 goals in the last 20 mins having been 3-0 up. First was still a good bet, may need to rethink my strategy a bit. The next bet will be the club outrights so the bank is gonna go down again before it goes up. I believe things will turn around though, early days yet
Bank= -25.450 -
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Ok so here I am with the club championship outrights. This mainly for interest as I am gone in the next few days to a restricted betting area with no GAA markets
Also have a big interest in hurling and like to think I know a thing or two about it, and am excited by the test of putting my money where my mouth is in that respect.
First off, I can't see past Drom/Inch in Tipp. I liked them for it earlier in the year as Thurles are notoriously inconsistent and having hammered Thurles and their perceived main rivals in Loughmore just two weeks ago, I see no reason that would change now.
Kilmallock also look good to me in Limerick. Playing the weakest team left in the Limerick championship in the quarters, have seen them and was impressed and I believe they have timed it right to peak now. Also like the odds given on them for Munster (9/1 with PP), given how short they are to win Limerick and have the experience of being in Munster last year and not being far off Tipp.
So first bet is:
6)Tipperary County Championship: Drom/Inch 11/10
Limerick County Championship: Kilmallock 7/4
€4 Double @ 4.78/1Waterford County Championship
Have been an avid follower of the club scene here since at least 2007. I just love it, I really do. Finding new players, seeing why the County lads are on the Senior Panel, the extra bit of physicality tolerated :P Really great.
Anyway, we'll start with De La Salle who are deserving favourites for the title. County Champions in 2008 (shoulda been 2009 as well), 2010 and 2012 they are some force. There's been a bit of an over reaction from the loss to Tallow as they were missing half their team and had nothing to play for, and also Ballygunner have gone up in people's estimation so that has all seen them go from 4/5 to 6/5. Not bad at all. Ballygunner will be a tough game for them in fairness, the only team that has beaten them in the knockout rounds since 2007. Stephen Daniels is still out, and is a big loss as he is a top, top player but they have coped really well in his absence.
Getting to Ballygunner, they are definitely hitting form at the right time. Having been abysmal at the beginning carrying on from some poor results last year, they turned a corner v Dungarvan. They were impressive enough v Passage too from what you could make of the game. They are best priced 11/2 on Paddy Power, and will be the favourites should they overcome DLS. I'd expect them to give them a good game anyway, especially as the rumours of Wayne Hutchison (not so much rumours as bizarrely word from the horses mouth
) of him being out for the season were pretty quickly dispelled. Brian O'Sullivan though was their key man last Sunday and worryingly picked up an injury to his hammer, they won't win it without him.
Passage were 16/1 last week and I thought this was a serious e/w shout as they were top of group 2, and looked to be playing well with everyone bar Ladbrokes having them at 8/1. They had nothing to play for, but they were very poor v Ballygunner and I don't see them winning the County though good progress has still been made with them this year having missed out on the quarters last year. They are now 8/1 across the board and though they should overcome Ballyduff who have lost Stephen Molumphy, the fact that Eoin Kelly went off with a shoulder injury on Sunday is just another reason to oppose them.
Mount Sion topped group 2 and are a good team. They should beat Tallow and weren't a million miles of DLS last year in the county semi final. Unfortunately for them though, inter-county forward Martin O Neill did his cruciate v Kilkenny and former Minor Munster winner Ian Galgey is also out injured. Ken McGrath has retired also. They could contest a county final if they get the right draw but I really find it hard to see them winning it.
Abbeyside and Fourmilewater play in the final semi final. I have to say Im not impartial on this one so you will have to take my advice against that, but I will do my best to give you the facts only here. The last three times the sides have met FMW have prevailed but not by much, needing two late goals to run out three point winners in 2010, winning by 5 in 2011 and winning on a scoreline of 0-11 to 0-8 last year when big favourites. There is no doubt it will be a close game again, and Abbeyside will be up for it. There was talk of there hurling having improved under coach Darragh Duggan but one respected observer disagreed on the evidence of their derby clash with Dungarvan when they ran out narrow 1 point factors last Saturday. Fourmile will match their physicality, which was apparently a problem for them the last day. This is a massive test of course, but Fourmilewater have won 12/14 championship games since losing to Ballygunner in 2011 and look to be targeting the knockout stages this year. They are yet to have a fully fit team this year, and one concern would be that giving their interest in the football (going by The Nire) that could tell against them. But the panel and first team looks stronger than last year when they beat De La Salle in the group stages. Should they beat Abbeyside, provided they don't draw DLS/BG, they would be favourites in their semi (marginally so against Mount Sion, but doubt those prices would allow for Sion's injuries). Taking a small bet on them, you'll probably get a better cumulative price on DLS if you're thinking about backing them and I wouldn't discourage you from doing so as they are a top side.
Waterford County Championship: 7)Fourmilewater 5/1 e/w €1.50 (€3 total)
One more championship I like is the Kilkenny county championship. Quite competitive as well, produces some great contests. Feel that Ballyhale for all their quality are too short here. The likes of Shefflin and Reid have been struggling with injuries and look tired, Michael Fennelly also has had his injury concerns too. James Stephens, or the village as they're known, won it two years ago and won't be far away either with Tyrell and Larkin in tow.
The team I like though are Carrickshock who I felt would contest it well last year but unfortunately lost Michael Rice to that terrible injury last year. To accompany Rice they have Richie Power, his brother John, John Dalton and Tennyson. Some very fine hurlers their and they will be there or thereabouts at the end I would wager. Contested the final back in 2010 when they lost to O'Loughlin Gaels by 3 points.
Kilkenny County Championship: 8)Carrickshock 5/1 e/w €1.50 (€3 total)
Few other ones I looked at were Ballinacourty in the Waterford football who should be favourites, not outsiders (which is what I consider them to be when they're the biggest price of the three big guns). Middleton should do well in the Cork hurling, and I feel Clonlara will win the Clare County championship eventually given the players they have but not sure will it be this year as they could be a long time celebrating a Clare all-ireland win should that happen.
Gonna do this cheeky acca as well:
9)Kilmallock
Drom/Inch
Fourmilewater
Carrickshock
€1 Four-fold @ 206.9/1 (:D)
4 bets total= €11
Bank= -29.55
All bets done with Boylesports (best value on all bar Drom/Inch, which can be gotten at 6/5 on Paddy Power), e/w terms= 1/3 on 1,20 -
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Mountainlad wrote: »Ah sure knew it was a hit and hope really but didn't have time to play the long game so was hoping to try and earn a tenor by the end of the night so I could withdraw it. Thankfully, St Gallen put paid to the bet early and really deserved their 4-2 away win. I would have been cracking up if I had been denied by a 90+4 minute goal by Riejka against Stuttgart for the entire bet.
One tonight:
11) Bayern v Chelsea; Chelsea double chance (+1) 23/20
€5 Single
Bank= -35.45
This game should be tight, Bayern have been struggling to break teams down. Chelsea are very well organized. The Champions league final finished 1-1 with 2 late goals so even under 1.5 first half goals or 2.5 total goals (which I looked at earlier) would be on. If it was a high scoring game I'd fancy Bayern but I think this will be low scoring and given it's a tight game and hard to call that price on covering 2/3 outcomes looks good to me.
Nice I took this earlier today but didn't get a chance to put it up when I did unfortunately. Would be surprised if anyone is actually backing what I'm taking in this log yet though.
Bank= -24.700 -
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Mountainlad wrote: »
Just did this for today. Not a horse man, and don't mean to be taking them too often but I know a good tipper. Hopefully it comes good.
Think Keith Higgins is definitely a good shout.
Why did I do this? Horses are the bane of nearly everybodies betting lives.
But at least Keith Higgins provided so marginal loss...but still a loss. I really need to cut those out.
But I think I'm plus overall on the weekend going into tonight's game with Monaco v PSG and a chance to win a good amount. Considering yesterday was 0/3 in Bet 1 I think that's something to be pretty happy with.0 -
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