Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

All kinds of everything, ML's log

Options
13»

Comments

  • Options
    #62
    Mountainlad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,851 ✭✭✭Mountainlad


    Missed the boat a little on the value for Ballinacourty. Still, Bet 365 offering a short handicap and think they will cover it.

    Cratloe v Ballinacourty; Ballinacourty -1 @ 1/1

    Single €8.20


  • Options
    #63
    Mountainlad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,851 ✭✭✭Mountainlad


    Mountainlad wrote: »
    Missed the boat a little on the value for Ballinacourty. Still, Bet 365 offering a short handicap and think they will cover it.

    Cratloe v Ballinacourty; Ballinacourty -1 @ 1/1 LOSE

    Single €8.20

    Bank=-38.82

    Harrowing stuff.


  • Options
    #64
    Mountainlad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,851 ✭✭✭Mountainlad


    Argentina v Boznia Herzegovina: Argentina & over 2.5 @ 11/10

    Single €3


  • Options
    #65
    Mountainlad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,851 ✭✭✭Mountainlad


    Mountainlad wrote: »
    Argentina v Boznia Herzegovina: Argentina & over 2.5 @ 11/10 LOSE

    Single €3

    Bank= -€35

    Everything points towards Zenit tonight.

    Zenit St Petersburg v Atletico Madrid; Zenit @13/10

    Single €13.85 (Biggest single bet I've taken thus far)


  • Options
    #66
    Mountainlad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,851 ✭✭✭Mountainlad


    Mountainlad wrote: »
    Bank= -€35

    Everything points towards Zenit tonight.

    Zenit St Petersburg v Atletico Madrid; Zenit @13/10

    Single €13.85 (Biggest single bet I've taken thus far)

    That was another one marked down in the crazy bets in this log.

    Bank= €21.15

    Treble for today with a bit of borrowed knowledge from the boards and my first hand experience of how bad Rennes are.

    Stade Rennais v PSG: PSG -1 AH @ 4/5 (nearly)
    Montepellier v Leicester (Rugby): Montpellier -1.5 @ 1/1
    Nice v Sochaux: Nice @ 8/11

    Treble €7 @ ~5/1


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #67
    paulo6891
    Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭paulo6891


    How did your bank go from -35 to +21 with that one bet? Do you have 2 separate ones?


  • Options
    #68
    Mountainlad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,851 ✭✭✭Mountainlad


    paulo6891 wrote: »
    How did your bank go from -35 to +21 with that one bet? Do you have 2 separate ones?

    See post #61 and post #63.

    The minus was a typo that I retained for two posts I think, just corrected it there in the last one.


  • Options
    #69
    Mountainlad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,851 ✭✭✭Mountainlad


    Mountainlad wrote: »
    That was another one marked down in the crazy bets in this log.

    Bank= €21.15

    Treble for today with a bit of borrowed knowledge from the boards and my first hand experience of how bad Rennes are.

    Stade Rennais v PSG: PSG -1 AH @ 4/5 (nearly) WIN
    Montepellier v Leicester (Rugby): Montpellier -1.5 @ 1/1 LOSE
    Nice v Sochaux: Nice @ 8/11 WIN

    Treble €7 @ ~5/1 LOSE

    AAAAAAAH. Leicester won by a point. Absolutely sick.

    Bank= +14


  • Options
    #70
    Mountainlad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,851 ✭✭✭Mountainlad


    Hull v Man Utd: UTD and BTTS @ 11/4
    Tottenham v West Brom:Spurs and BTTS @ 11/5
    Man City v Liverpool: City and BTTS @ 2/1

    Doubles €1.50 (Total Stake €4.50)

    Kempton 2.35: The New One @ 1/1

    Single €5.50


  • Options
    #71
    Mountainlad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,851 ✭✭✭Mountainlad


    Mountainlad wrote: »
    Hull v Man Utd: UTD and BTTS @ 11/4 WIN
    Tottenham v West Brom:Spurs and BTTS @ 11/5 LOSE
    Man City v Liverpool: City and BTTS @ 2/1 WIN

    Doubles €1.50 (Total Stake €4.50)

    Kempton 2.35: The New One @ 1/1 LOSE

    Single €5.50

    Disappointed with the horse, bad mistake made.

    I think I was just hoping for two of those 3 on the football bet at those odds but disappointed Spurs couldn't find one more goal for a great profit. Decent day.


    Bank= +€20.88


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #72
    Mountainlad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,851 ✭✭✭Mountainlad


    Taking 3 bets, two trebles and a double. Only one selection odds on so nervous about this weekend but also excited.

    1) Blackburn v Birmingham: Jordan Rhodes Anytime 1/1
    Man City v Crystal Palace: Over 1.5 FH goals 1/1
    Cardiff v Sunderland: Sunderland 23/10

    2) Norwich v Man Utd: Rooney Anytime 6/5
    Aston Villa v Swansea: Under 2.5 goals 8/11
    Coventry v Oldham: Leon Clarke Anytime 1/1

    3) Norwich v Man Utd: Rooney Anytime Assist 15/8
    Man City v Crystal Palace: Edin Dzeko Anytime 8/11


    €5 on all selections, please god one of them comes in!


  • Options
    #73
    Mountainlad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,851 ✭✭✭Mountainlad


    Mountainlad wrote: »
    Taking 3 bets, two trebles and a double. Only one selection odds on so nervous about this weekend but also excited.

    1) Blackburn v Birmingham: Jordan Rhodes Anytime 1/1
    Man City v Crystal Palace: Over 1.5 FH goals 1/1
    Cardiff v Sunderland: Sunderland 23/10

    2) Norwich v Man Utd: Rooney Anytime 6/5
    Aston Villa v Swansea: Under 2.5 goals 8/11
    Coventry v Oldham: Leon Clarke Anytime 1/1

    3) Norwich v Man Utd: Rooney Anytime Assist 15/8
    Man City v Crystal Palace: Edin Dzeko Anytime 8/11


    €5 on all selections, please god one of them comes in!

    Bank=+€14.51

    New year, new enthusiasm. I guess I'll just cut off the log where it stands at the minute. A profit in 4 months but I'd hardly call this log a success. I've been pretty erratic with my decision making, research, lacked a real system and probably not identified what was working at persisted with it.

    I'm going to try and devise a plan, based around a staking structure and make some rules for future bets. Will be starting back on the GAA (woohoo!) this weekend, with DCU and Waterford (even at a terrible price in fairness) on my radar.


  • Options
    #74
    Mountainlad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,851 ✭✭✭Mountainlad


    Ok so going to do points instead of money as I need a system to keep me in check. Still thinking about exactly what range (1-5pts etc expressing the level of confidence) and exactly the criteria for confidence (will be relative to the sport I guess).

    I will monitor it monthly, and number the bets in order to track them better and see what is and isn't working.

    1pt=€5

    January 2014
    ____________________________________________________________

    1) Dublin v DCU: DCU @ 15/8
    Waterford v UL: Waterford @ 1/6

    Double: 2pts

    Simple look at the form lines says that DCU are being given a generous price here. The college beat Louth 1-15 to 1-09 and had a good win against Westmeath too winning 2-15 to 2-09. Dublin had a point to spare over Westmeath and a late rally saw them overcome Louth by 4 points.

    Having seen the starting team v Louth, Jim Gavin is very much so looking at players he can add to his league squad at the moment. So many good players in Dublin right now means that a lot of players must be looked at. Conventional wisdom is that colleges are peaking this time of year and have plenty of inter-county talent in their ranks.

    Waterford played very poorly this time last year and were beaten by UL. This is Derek McGrath's first 'competitive' game this year however and having had good wins against Dublin and UCC in the last two weeks I reckon Waterford will win.

    The double pays higher than a double with Paddy Power, but DCU are best priced with PP at 2/1.


  • Options
    #75
    Mountainlad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,851 ✭✭✭Mountainlad


    Mountainlad wrote: »
    Ok so going to do points instead of money as I need a system to keep me in check. Still thinking about exactly what range (1-5pts etc expressing the level of confidence) and exactly the criteria for confidence (will be relative to the sport I guess).

    I will monitor it monthly, and number the bets in order to track them better and see what is and isn't working.

    1pt=€5

    January 2014
    ____________________________________________________________

    1) Dublin v DCU: DCU @ 15/8 WIN
    Waterford v UL: Waterford @ 1/6 LOSE

    Double: 2pts

    Simple look at the form lines says that DCU are being given a generous price here. The college beat Louth 1-15 to 1-09 and had a good win against Westmeath too winning 2-15 to 2-09. Dublin had a point to spare over Westmeath and a late rally saw them overcome Louth by 4 points.

    Having seen the starting team v Louth, Jim Gavin is very much so looking at players he can add to his league squad at the moment. So many good players in Dublin right now means that a lot of players must be looked at. Conventional wisdom is that colleges are peaking this time of year and have plenty of inter-county talent in their ranks.

    Waterford played very poorly this time last year and were beaten by UL. This is Derek McGrath's first 'competitive' game this year however and having had good wins against Dublin and UCC in the last two weeks I reckon Waterford will win.

    The double pays higher than a double with Paddy Power, but DCU are best priced with PP at 2/1.

    Idiotic. Should know better, left it behind. Singles from now on until we get a bit of momentum. Onwards.

    Bank= -2pts


  • Options
    #76
    Mountainlad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,851 ✭✭✭Mountainlad


    2) Man City v Blackburn: Man City -2.5 AH @ 5/4

    Single= 2pts


  • Options
    #77
    Mountainlad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,851 ✭✭✭Mountainlad


    Mountainlad wrote: »
    2) Man City v Blackburn: Man City -2.5 AH @ 5/4 WIN

    Single= 2pts

    Bank= +0.25pts


  • Options
    #78
    Mountainlad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,851 ✭✭✭Mountainlad


    My god there is some amount of logs on here at the minute.

    Right so going to take a double for the next bet despite what I said last weeked. Pretty confident in it, but will keep it to the minimum 1pt based.

    Limerick v Clare: Limerick @ 8/13
    UL V WIT: UL @ 4/11

    Limerick are coming off a battering of IT Tralee. Not that you could read too much into it, but even without the Na Piarsaigh lads I reckon there'll be a lot more intent on their mind then the Clare lads who are just back from a holiday in Cancun.

    Having fallen into a trap last weekend, I'm paying UL some respect this weekend. They played well as a team, and they might see more of their lads back with them this weekend. Allegedly WIT are missing a few, they'll certainly be minus the Waterford lads that played last weekend anyway (Jake Dillon, Paudi Mahony and Stephen Roche to name a few).

    Double=1pt


  • Options
    #79
    Mountainlad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,851 ✭✭✭Mountainlad


    One more today.

    Chelsea v Man UTD: Chelsea and under 2.5 @ 3/1

    Admittedly getting on late but still don't see how that price is so big.

    • Chelsea have only scored more than 2 goals twice this seen
    • UTD are missing their two main strikers + several other players
    • Chelsea have lost only once at home this season (Basel a long time ago) and drawn once in 13 games.
    • The last meeting was 0-0, think Jose will look to get the early goal, maybe 2 and then shut down shop.
    Single= 2pt


  • Options
    #80
    Mountainlad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,851 ✭✭✭Mountainlad


    Mountainlad wrote: »

    Limerick v Clare: Limerick @ 8/13 LOSE
    UL V WIT: UL @ 4/11 WIN

    Double=1pt
    Mountainlad wrote: »
    One more today.

    Chelsea v Man UTD: Chelsea and under 2.5 @ 3/1 LOSE

    Single= 2pt


    Bank= -2.75pts


  • Options
    #81
    Mountainlad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,851 ✭✭✭Mountainlad


    All hurling today and probably as many selections as I'd ever make in a weekend.

    Carlow v Westmeath: Westmeath @ 15/8

    Westmeath with a good win over Antrim last weekend, Carlow minus their Mount Leinster Rangers players and all available there wouldn't be much between them in my mind anyway.

    Clare v UCC: UCC @ 13/2

    Fell into the trap of backing Waterford first day. Given DCU won that day as well, the theory of colleges being prime for this year tends to hold true. Clare's fringe players are fighting for places on the team so it's gonna be a close game, but that's exactly what it will be and in those circumstances 13/2 about one team is way to big.

    Wexford v Dublin: Wexford @ 11/8

    We saw what happened last year in Wexford park and the yellow bellies looked in fine form last weekend against albeit and average NUIG outfit. Think they're worth a go here.



    And one 4-fold to boot:

    Wexford
    Westmeath
    UCC
    Kilkenny

    @64~


    Kilkenny aren't a huge price (especially with Lads) but hard to see past them.


    3 Singles: 1pt each (3pts)

    4-fold: 1pt


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #82
    Mountainlad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,851 ✭✭✭Mountainlad


    Mountainlad wrote: »
    All hurling today and probably as many selections as I'd ever make in a weekend.

    Carlow v Westmeath: Westmeath @ 15/8 LOSE

    Westmeath with a good win over Antrim last weekend, Carlow minus their Mount Leinster Rangers players and all available there wouldn't be much between them in my mind anyway.

    Clare v UCC: UCC @ 13/2 LOSE

    Fell into the trap of backing Waterford first day. Given DCU won that day as well, the theory of colleges being prime for this year tends to hold true. Clare's fringe players are fighting for places on the team so it's gonna be a close game, but that's exactly what it will be and in those circumstances 13/2 about one team is way to big.

    Wexford v Dublin: Wexford @ 11/8 LOSE

    We saw what happened last year in Wexford park and the yellow bellies looked in fine form last weekend against albeit and average NUIG outfit. Think they're worth a go here.



    And one 4-fold to boot:

    Wexford
    Westmeath
    UCC
    Kilkenny

    @64~ LOSE


    Kilkenny aren't a huge price (especially with Lads) but hard to see past them.


    3 Singles: 1pt each (3pts)

    4-fold: 1pt

    Bank= -6.75pt

    Couldn't have done worse if I'd picked them at random. UCC played last night. No idea where the others went so wrong, though Wexford weren't far off.

    Bookies were pot on today really, what can you do?


  • Options
    #83
    Mountainlad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,851 ✭✭✭Mountainlad


    Right so, had a massive win during the week not recorded in this log so I am going to used some of the reatained earnings to make an extremely large that I'm not planning on replicating too often here. I might have to stop the log altogether if if loses, but will be up if it wins.

    Stoke v Man Utd: Man Utd @ 11/20
    Swindon v Oldham: Swindon D/C @ 4/11

    Double= 10pts

    Breaking any possible rules here but am determined to get this back on an even keel so I can give it a right go in the next few weeks, have a one month + bet lined up too.


Advertisement