Syria: How could Assad potentially respond militarily to Cruise Missile strikes?

maquiladora

Interesting turn of events. It looks like a US/UK cruise missile strike was planned to go ahead this weekend but due to Cameron facing an upset in parliament he has been forced to change the motion so that a second vote will be required before UK forces could take action, only after UN inspectors have made their report, (which won't assign blame either way). That could be a week or more away.

Will be interesting to see what Obama decides. UK may not end up having a direct role at all.

Edit : CNN report makes it clear Obama has no intention of waiting/delaying. Sounds to me like they will go ahead without any direct UK involvement.

http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2013/08/28/u-s-officials-united-states-to-act-on-syria-on-its-own-timetable/

Be like Nutella

I agree with not waiting IF there is a time sensitive military reason

Sierra Oscar

Reuters are reporting that the Syrian Arab Army has already evacuated most of its troops from military centres across Damascus to put them out of harms way.

Syria evacuates most army buildings in Damascus: residents

Among the buildings that have been partially evacuated are the General Staff Command Building on Umayyad Square, the nearby airforce command and the security compounds in the Western Kfar Souseh districts, residents of the area and a Free Syrian Army rebel source said.

It looks like the leaking of potential targets, when it was thought that an immediate strike would likely occur, could be backfiring. Assad could have nearly a week to prepare for military intervention by the time any strikes actually occur.

EDIT: Reuters are also reporting that the General of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has stated that any military attack will bring about the "imminent destruction of Israel".

Iran commander: US strike on Syria would bring Israel's destruction

Aug 29 (Reuters) - Iran's Revolutionary Guards chief said a U.S. military attack on Syria would lead to the "imminent destruction" of Israel and would prove a "second Vietnam" for America, according to an Iranian news agency.

Be like Nutella

yeah true but this attack is not about killing soldiers it's primarily about destroying assets and allowing residents to move away from these structures, if they are indeed in the target set, is a good thing too. I assume the main target is air power infrastructure and anti aircraft/anti missile assets. Those are not likely embedded in civilian areas and it wouldn't matter if soldiers evacuated or not they can't move the air bases.

But deffo the more time Assad has, the more he can do.

Like I said I would support the US hitting Assad right now, if there was a time sensitive military reason, as opposed to waiting around for Britain's internal political games or even for the U.N. report which the American's say will only back up what they already are sure about - that Assad's forces are ultimately responsible for the chemical attack.

But IF there are no real tactically important time sensitive aspects to this punitive Cruise missile strike then by all means wait for the report form the inspectors and for Ed Milliband to stop playing games, go through the U.N. theater, get blocked by Russia and do it anyway on grounds for protecting the convention against Chemical weapons.

maquiladora

6 RAF Typhoon intercepters deployed to Akrotiri to provide air defence for Cyprus.

Fifth US guided missile destroyer sent to the eastern Med. Maybe backup in case the UK ends up playing no part.

Sierra Oscar

maquiladora wrote: »

6 RAF Typhoon intercepters deployed to Akrotiri to provide air defence for Cyprus.

Fifth US guided missile destroyer sent to the eastern Med. Maybe backup in case the UK ends up playing no part.

It is starting to look increasingly likely that the UK will play no role.

Cameron is floundering badly in the Commons debate at the moment. Some senior Conservative MP's are even in rebellion, seems he misread the party mood on the matter. He could press ahead without political backing, but that would be risky for him.

maquiladora

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

It is starting to look increasingly likely that the UK will play no role.

Cameron is floundering badly in the Commons debate at the moment. Some senior Conservative MP's are even in rebellion, seems he misread the party mood on the matter. He could press ahead without political backing, but that would be risky for him.

Legally he could do that, but it would be political suicide. That won't happen.

positron

Watching the debate on UK parliament on BBC news website - couldn't help notice that they all speak very clearly, very detailed and very convincingly. General quality of the elected members there, as communicators, seems higher than a lot of the folks we have in power, imho.

Be like Nutella

Britain's assets were never strategically necessary as we know the US can do it easily on their own.

What is most import is that the targeting is smart and comprehensive enough to do real damage to Assad's air bases/air defense power without risking civilian casualties which would just be so ridiculously counter productive. Whatever is done needs to be done perfectly and successfully sends a clear message to Assad that if he attempts to use chemical weapons again (assuming it was his/his brothers forces who did it) then he is asking for a much larger military strike on his assets which would really dent his ability to fight the rebels and ultimately survive... because the end of this story involves him dying in some manner or other.
A man who realizes his life is at risk who has the military at his disposal is a very dangerous man... to Syrian civilians and to the region as a whole.

Be like Nutella

There's always some Iranian foolish General to run his mouth off and make things worse with silly overboard comments and make them all look like mental Jihadists, which they aren't. What an eejit.

Reuters: "Iran's Revolutionary Guards chief said a U.S. military attack on Syria would lead to the 'imminent destruction' of Israel and would prove a 'second Vietnam' for America, according to an Iranian news agency. ... Mohammad Ali Jafari, commander of Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said in an interview late on Wednesday with the Tasnim news agency that a U.S. strike on Syria would not help Israel. 'An attack on Syria will mean the imminent destruction of Israel,' Jafari said, according to Tasnim."

Sierra Oscar

Be like Nutella wrote: »

Britain's assets were never strategically necessary as we know the US can do it easily on their own.

That's not really the issue, it is more so that the US does not want to act alone for legitimacy reasons. Today both France & the UK backtracked significantly, which has undoubtedly delayed intervention at the very least.

Be like Nutella

ah I know they don't... I was just saying the US doesn't need them physically... just politically.

Are France backtracking yeah? I thought they were gung ho

well Obama won't wait too long for them to get their house in order... Can't see him waiting til after next week, seems to be too much momentum behind the US position right now.

maquiladora

It wouldn't surprise me if this was true, and is one of the reasons why delaying and being vey open about an operation and it's targets through leaks and public comments can be a very bad idea.

GAZIANTEP, TURKEY // Syrian authorities have moved prisoners from their jail cells to installations the government believes could be targets of western military strikes, pro-democracy activists in Damascus have told The National.


Residents in the Syrian capital said they had seen fully loaded buses moving late Wednesday from the military court in Damascus to Mezzeh airbase on the southwestern tip of the city, a likely target for US missiles.

The plight of thousands of prisoners held in a vast network of security facilities throughout the country is a major concern for their families and opposition activists.

"People are really scared about the prisoners' safety, and that the US will attack places where the prisoners are held," one pro-democracy activist said. "They are afraid because military bases are in built-up areas so civilians may be caught in the attacks.

"There is a lot of fear that prisoners will take the brunt of the attacks, and they have all seen the civilians killed by US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan," she said.

The opposition Syrian National Coalition also warned that prisoners were being used as human shields by president Bashar Al Assad's forces.

"Assad's fascist regime is amassing detained activists and civilians in prisons inside military locations that may be potential targets for foreign military forces," it said in a statement today.

"Using civilians as human shields is a blatant breach of International Humanitarian Law, and those responsible must be held accountable for crimes against humanity."

Thousands of protesters, rebels and dissidents have been arrested and held in detention since the start of the uprising in March 2011. Many of them remain missing, and are believed to be inside a shadowy network of security branches and military compounds.

The Syrian authorities have never allowed independent international organisations to inspect detention centres run by feared secret police units. Human rights organisations say torture is endemic.

Bracing for possible US-military strikes, residents of Damascus have been stocking up on food, water and fuel, with regime supporters and opponents alike fearful an already brutal war may be about to dramatically escalate.

Many people stayed away from work yesterday, opting instead to join the longer than normal queues at petrol stations and bakeries.

Military forces in and around the capital were on the move, some residents said. Major checkpoints were reduced in size or taken away altogether, especially those manned by members of ultra-loyalist security units.

"Everyone is expecting the strikes soon, and there have been heavy military movements.

"To be honest, everyone is afraid, no matter what side they are on. The regime is afraid of being hit and the anti-regime people are afraid the security will become even more brutal in response," he said.

http://www.thenational.ae/news/world/middle-east/syria-regime-moves-prisoners-to-likely-targets-of-western-military-strikes

Can you imagine a situation where a cruise missile strike meant to punish Assad's forces ends up hitting an air base packed with protesters and opposition prisoners, with their bodies being displayed later on Syrian TV to invoke outrage? Could be a horrible situation. I wouldn't like to be the one responsbile for vetting strike targets right now.

Be like Nutella

very filthy but very creative tactic it has to be said.. I wonder how much truth is in it and to what scale he is doing this in reality... must do some checking.

maquiladora

Be like Nutella wrote: »

ah I know they don't... I was just saying the US doesn't need them physically... just politically.

Are France backtracking yeah? I thought they were gung ho

well Obama won't wait too long for them to get their house in order... Can't see him waiting til after next week, seems to be too much momentum behind the US position right now.

The French aren't backtracking, just stating that they want to hear the inspectors reporting back to the UN, which will happen on Saturday.

Their Horizon class destroyer Chevalier Paul left port today and is heading east in the Med to provide air cover so they are already commited anyway. Not an offensive role though.

maquiladora

Be like Nutella wrote: »

very filthy but very creative tactic it has to be said.. I wonder how much truth is in it and to what scale he is doing this in reality... must do some checking.

It wouldn't surpise if it was true, since even before the uprising Syria was one of the worst abusers of human rights in the world, according to HRW.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/24/us-syria-rights-idUSTRE70N5S620110124

Amirani

While I agree with not allowing the Russian's to dictate international law via their veto, the US can't be allowed do likewise by striking Syria without any sort of mandate.

The UN Security Council is a farce.

listermint

NiallSparky wrote: »

While I agree with not allowing the Russian's to dictate international law via their veto, the US can't be allowed do likewise by striking Syria without any sort of mandate.

The UN Security Council is a farce.

So what is you're solution then.

Amirani

listermint wrote: »

So what is you're solution then.

I've not put enough thought into it to come up with an effective alternative.

Perhaps some mechanism where a 75% (arbitrary figure) majority vote in the General Assembly would override a UNSC veto and provide a mandate for nations to take actions on issues.

maquiladora

Two U-2's have landed at RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus.

Be like Nutella

still useful after many attempts to retire them... not enough Global Hawks built yet? or are they nervous about flying Global Hawks over Syria for some reason? could be to do with bases and support.

maquiladora

Be like Nutella wrote: »

still useful after many attempts to retire them... not enough Global Hawks built yet? or are they nervous about flying Global Hawks over Syria for some reason? could be to do with bases and support.

On 26 January 2012, the Pentagon announced plans to end Global Hawk Block 30 procurement as the type was found to be more expensive to operate and with less capable sensors than the existing U-2.

U-2's life has been extended out to 2023 now.

Be like Nutella

wow - that's a long lifespan.

They built at least 40 GHs though didn't they.. surely that's enough to go around

200 mill a pop incl R+D is bit steep in this climate though for a robot.

maquiladora

E-3 deploying from RAF Waddington today, probably heading to Cyprus too. There is already one E-3 there.

Be like Nutella

and people wonder why there's flying saucers reported

booom

I'll be interesting to find out how many (if any at all) S-300's got into Syria and are operational. I'm sure we'll find out soon enough.

Cork boy 55

booom wrote: »

I'll be interesting to find out how many (if any at all) S-300's got into Syria and are operational. I'm sure we'll find out soon enough.

There are none in Syria and there will not be in the short to medium term.

Be like Nutella

I don't think Assad would attempt to strike a US Ship unless he's completely lost control. It would only bring a larger attack.

But who knows, if he ordered the chemical attack he has made one bad miscalculation. Who's to say it's his last.

I can't personally believe some group on the rebel side carried out the gas attack. So I'm going on the assumption Assad ordered it, ok'd it or one of his units did it without his knowledge - maybe his murderous brother.

If he didn't order it why the hell would he shell the area afterwards ???
- that part definitely doesn't make any sense to me and supports the case that his forces did it.

The international community instantly called for some kind of punishment so he knew he was in trouble so if he didn't do it why wouldn't he just get the investigators in there pronto and allow them prove it wasn't his guys who did it? or find his own evidence showing it was somebody on the rebel side?

The way events unfolded it looks almost certain that his side is responsible for the attack as irrational as it seems. His guys had the stuff, they were attacking the area, they had the rockets, they shelled the area afterwards, they wouldn't let the inspectors in for 5 days - he looks guilty as hell.

Cork boy 55

I don't know why people are applying control, competence, rational ,and logic to loyalist forces.
Maybe they just screwed up, There was been 13 different small-scale alleged chemical incidents so far in war
with casualties in the 10s maybe they hit a densely crowded area by accident
The loyalists have screwed up big time before with Tactical ballistic missiles and heavy rocket artillery
Like six months ago when they hit Aleppo University with two TBMs and killed nearly 100 students the Uni was within their own lines.
I don't know what happened, The probability that the insurgents possess weaponized chemical weapons of this lethally and quantity and then deployed it in a mass slaughter if their own women and children of their support base in a false flag in the Ghouta of all places An enclave essentially under siege is close to ZERO.
The probability that the loyalist have deployed these weapons in Ghouta which we know they possess
and have alleged already used numerous times in small quantities is close to ONE

If they did intend to Carry out a massacre maybe they thought they would get away it after the Egypt coup and the Recent terror plots in Yemen

The most likely explanation is that they meant to carry out a minor deniable attack cause some dozens of causalities which could never be proven and hidden by the chaos and fog of war. But something went wrong in the planning and execution
They underestimated the Gas or they hit wrong target or they have a rouge/gung ho leader/unit. Maybe they mixed up munitions and fired Cw when they thought
they firing HE. maybe control in Loyalist forces has broke down or brook down




As for Assad is "winning the war" This is false, everything has changed in last month since battle of al-qusayr
The situation is changed on many fronts in last few weeks
There are multiple of dozens of fronts,enclaves and sieges
The Loyalists are winning on some of them Like Homs
The insurgents are winning on others like Aleppo and Darra.
There is stalemate on most and even on fronts where one side is advancing its often painfully slow.

The introduction(by Turkey and GCC) of the large numbers of high quality ATGMS since the battle of al-qusayr
is a game changer , a battle winner. In some areas where the loyalists are operating without popular support i.e local loyalist militas. Loyalist find themselves outnumbered in terms of infantry and reliant on a tank-led defense.
i.e. Tanks used as mobile pillboxes or as SP artillery or to force through supply convoys.
When the ATGMs knock the Armour out, these isolated checkpoints and bases can then be rolled up with light losses to rebels. We have seen this at Menagh airbase where a position which held out for a year was overrun when its tank-led defense was knocked out by ATGMs. and we saw it in Latakia offensive where hill-top checkpoints which had held back rebels for months where overrun as soon as the tanks where picked off by ATGMs

This video(slightly graphic) is a good example an isolated checkpoint defended by 3 tanks, 3 ATGMs are fired and positions falls shortly afterwards with no describable losses to insurgents
before the ATGMs a position like this would have been far far harder to take.
If the ATGMs continue to flow then its not unreasonable to suggest that all areas where the SAA is operating without Infantry parity from loyal militias are doomed to be lost i.e. all those bases/enclaves in the east and north
The ATGM supplies have completely changed the tactical picture in some areas.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=0b9_1376710026
In terms of territory gained and men/equipment losses suffered by Loyalist the Insurgents have arguable had their most successful month ever from Mid-july to mid-august. The biggest victory is at Khan al assal in Aleppo in July
where a whole battalion of SAA where wiped out in a day including alleged post-battle massacre of large numbers of prisoners.
SMC propaganda labelled the recently ended Ramadan the “Month of Victories”
Warning highly biased document from SMC detailing Ramadan gains
http://gallery.mailchimp.com/91f7a2c8b39d32e7ac9968d75/files/NEW_Ramadan_A_Month_of_Victories.pdf

Be like Nutella

Thanks I didn't know they had that level of anti tank weapon.

It is a graphic video but it shows how effective some of the rebel units are at taking out Syrian military positions and also makes you think what a jihadist group could do with those ATGMs.

Could that weapon be used to fire a chemical shell or was the chemical attack more likely carried out using artillery? I heard reports the chemical shells came from a bridge nearby?

maquiladora

Cameron's motion defeated by 13 votes. No British military involvement in Syria now.

The flipside of that surprise is Obama doesn't have to wait to order a missile strike now. Could come as early as tonight if he wanted.

Be like Nutella

fairnufsky

I really don't like the sound of that tactic of putting the prisoners in the target sites... that could stop anything.

Cork boy 55

Be like Nutella wrote: »

Thanks I didn't know they had that level of anti tank weapon.

It is a graphic video but it shows how effective some of the rebel units are at taking out Syrian military positions and also makes you think what a jihadist group could do with those ATGMs.

Could that weapon be used to fire a chemical shell or was the chemical attack more likely carried out using artillery? I heard reports the chemical shells came from a bridge nearby?

ATGM = Anti tank guided missiles
They have acquired several types Soviet, Russian federation ,Chinese and French. Mostly imports but some have been captured from the Army
They have used them right from start but only in small quantities
After Hezbollah Invaded They appeared in large numbers And changed everything tactically and strategically

NO they cannot carry chemical warheads
Chemical weapon are delivered by Aircraft bombs, Large Rockets artillery 120mm+ Or Large caliber Artillery 155mm+

Reuters report on ATGM shipments

(Reuters)
By Suleiman Al-Khalidi
AMMAN | Thu Aug 15, 2013 11:45am EDT
- Rebels in southern Syria have fired newly acquired anti-tank guided missiles supplied by Saudi Arabia in a significant boost to their battle against President Bashar al-Assad, rebel, intelligence and diplomatic sources say.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/15/us-syria-crisis-arms-idUSBRE97E0QH20130815
Well-made video of 9M113 Konkurs ( AT-5 Spandrel.) in action

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eTAfcQJjd0

Cork boy 55

Cameroon and Hague screwed up they rushed the vote before the USA intel report and UN report

maquiladora

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

Cameroon and Hague screwed up they rushed the vote before the USA intel report and UN report

Remeber though the UN report will only say that chemical weapons were used or not, it won't say who used them, that's not their mandate. Even the Russians and Syrians themselves agree that chemical weapons were used (they just blamed the rebels!), so the UN findings won't really change anything either way.

Congress are being briefed on the US intel at 11pm, the declassified version then will be released either later tonight or tomorrow. That should be interesting.

Cameron f*cked up by not knowing his own parliament, he looks like some dope now.

Be like Nutella

yep seems like they did alright

Sierra Oscar

maquiladora wrote: »

Cameron's motion defeated by 13 votes. No British military involvement in Syria now.

The flipside of that surprise is Obama doesn't have to wait to order a missile strike now. Could come as early as tonight if he wanted.

Wouldn't be surprised if military intervention didn't happen at all now.

Britain will push for pursuing the matter through the courts and applying further sanctions.

maquiladora

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Wouldn't be surprised if military intervention didn't happen at all now.

Britain will push for pursuing the matter through the courts and applying further sanctions.

NYT has got very quick reaction from the White House, they say Obama is prepared to do it alone now, as soon as the inspectors leave on Saturday:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/30/us/politics/obama-syria.html?_r=0

I think that the news of the 5th destroyer being moved into the Med earlier today was probably a backup in case this happened. That destoyer's missiles will now replace the ones that would have been fired from the UK sub.

Be like Nutella

ok so they wait for the UN inspectors account on sat and then are ready to hit the sites? but what about the prisoners story? I emailed that journalist - Phil Sands who wrote that story - haven't heard back

Surely the US has been tasking Sats, GHs and U2s all over Syria and have been watching carefully any movements of people to and from the potential target set so would know if Prisoner buses have been coming or going to any specific sites?

wildfowler94

From the 6 one news it seems there waiting on the UN report for any futher action

Sierra Oscar

maquiladora wrote: »

NYT has got very quick reaction from the White House, they say Obama is prepared to do it alone now, as soon as the inspectors leave on Saturday

I'm not sure. He will have to wait for the UN report now, or risk a major political backlash if things don't go as planned.

In the meanwhile there are some scrambling to get congress recalled as a series of opinion polls today showed there is a clear majority of the public that don't support any intervention.

maquiladora

Be like Nutella wrote: »

ok so they wait for the UN inspectors account on sat and then are ready to hit the sites? but what about the prisoners story? I emailed that journalist - Phil Sands who wrote that story - haven't heard back

Surely the US has been tasking Sats, GHs and U2s all over Syria and have been watching carefully any movements of people to and from the potential target set so would know if Prisoner buses have been coming or going to any specific sites?

Well there's two U-2's in Cyprus now and probably lots of other stuff we don't know about so hopefully their intel is good on the targets they pick...

maquiladora

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I'm not sure. He will have to wait for the UN report now, or risk a major political backlash if things don't go as planned.

In the meanwhile there are some scrambling to get congress recalled as a series of opinion polls today showed there is a clear majority of the public that don't support any intervention.

CNN got the same message as NYT.

Jim Acosta ‏@JimAcostaCNN

A senior US official tells CNN unilateral action against Syria may be necessary following the vote in Britain.

Sr. US official on UK vote: "We care what they think. We value the process. But we're going to make the decision we need to make."

I think waiting for the UN report would look good in terms on public image alright, but all it's going to do is confirm that chemical weapons were used and not who ordered the attack, the White House said earlier than that information is redundant, so doesn't sound like they are too bothered about it.
There could even be a quick interim report on Saturday after the inspectors leave Syria though.

Next few days will be interesting.

dav32cs

maquiladora wrote: »

Doctors Without Borders who are dealing with the victims on the ground there confirmed hundreds of cases of neurological symptoms, so clearly some type of chemical weapon or gas was used. I haven't seen anyone officially claiming it was Sarin in particular.

Doctors Without Borders are not directly dealing with people on the ground. They supply the medicine for their designated hospitals(mostly in rebel areas) but have no active workers in these sites due to the ongoing threat. This means that all information they have put out is from an unknown third party on the ground whom they are dealing with.

'Médecins Sans Frontières can neither scientifically confirm the cause of these symptoms nor establish who is responsible for the attack,” said Dr. Janssens.
(Because they are not on the ground )

maquiladora wrote: »

Assad's forces are known to have chemical weapons, they are known to have probably used them already in the conflict on a smaller scale.

'Probably' according to the western media.

'No evidence' pointing towards any government involvement but some evidence pointing towards Rebel involvement according to UN inspector Carla Del Ponte.http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/uns-carla-del-ponte-says-there-is-evidence-rebels-may-have-used-sarin-in-syria-8604920.html
(Picked a media source that is usually overly critical of the Assad government to show case - Del Pontes findings so far have been widely ignored in Western media)

The line that is being force fed down peoples throats now is that it is crazy to think that the rebels would have any access to chemical type weapons. This is despite the fact(to give even a few small examples) :
-Turkey have arrested Al Nusra members in possession of Sarin gas
-Iraq have raided at least two chemical weapons factories of Al Q in Iraq
-An American report as far back as circa 2002 stated that Al Q have gained the ability to mix and manufacture crude chemical weapons (Sarin,Mustard,XV) in homemade rockets.
- Syrian govt footage of a rebel storage facility - lots of bags with 'Made in The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia' on them.

maquiladora wrote: »

Assad's forces heavily shelled the site of the chemical attack in the days after it happened - why on earth would they do that unless they were trying to destroy as much evidence as possible at the site?

So all of a sudden fighting in an area of an alleged chemical weapons attack is going to degrade or destroy all traces?? So why are the UN Inspectors over there investigating and attack that happened months ago so?If genuine, chemical traces will stay in the ground and cannot be destroyed that easily. Also, if it was sarin, the Syrian soldiers fighting in close proximity would have been affected and also any wind could have brought this into city centre Damascus. Because of all this, the most likely scenario is that a riot control agent of some sort has been used in a high concentration dose.This can result in similar respiratory symptoms as there would be in a CW attack.

It was said the Syrian government had refused access to this new site. This was untrue as they had stated they could not guarantee the safety of the inspectors as it was a Rebel controlled area. Then it was said they had delayed giving permission, again false as the UN requested this on a Saturday and it was granted on a Sunday. This was surprising but had to be done to appease the Western demands - by granting this access the offensive had to cease and this would allow the rebels to get a breather and regroup. This offensive was organised to try and rout foreign backed militants who had just arrived in the country with the plan of a major attack onto Damascus. By agreeing to this cessation it would have lost any gains the original offensive would have gained.

maquiladora wrote: »

Not the actions of an innocent party, a party that has been killing 10,000's over the past 2 years by conventional means like firing heavy artillery and Scud missiles into cities without any regard for civilian life.

It is estimated the roughly 40k of the casualties have been from the Syrian govt side.American policies like drone strikes which regularly kill innocent civilians are deemed to be appropriate actions but a government fighting an externally fueled war against itself targeting militants in built up area is a war crime?

I have no doubt there have been numerous civilian casualties caused by the Syrian army by accident and also the possibility of small scale deliberate acts by individuals but this is no way near the scale of any of the western backed rebels actions.

If in fact it is proven that in any way a chemical like attack was fully co-ordinated by the Syrian govt then those responsible should be punished to the highest level. I can't see this scenario ever happening though as I doubt Al Assad could be that stupid...just like the whole line that CW were a 'red line' and what happens 3 days after UN chemical weapons inspectors arrive in the country??You couldn't make it up...

If you find it necessary, it is quite easy to find video and photo evidence of all the crimes of the Rebel side yet there is hardly any documented evidence of Syrian army crimes, apart from the 'probable' and 'suspected' notions from the media. Last week Al Nusra executed 3 truck drivers because they didn't pass the 'How Sunni are you' exam to the required standards. 100+ soldiers executed in Khan Al Assan after they surrendered. Multiple videos of beheadings and executions of civilians and soldiers for a variety of reason. Documented evidence of child soldiers being trained.

It's funny to look at all the experts in the US weighing up all the military and non-military options and they always exclude probably the quickest route to end the suffering for the ordinary Syrian - publicly acknowledge the majority extremist element of the 'rebels' and their crimes and come together to a collective decision to withdraw all funding and support(this will take a miracle from Saudi Arabia and Qatar especially given the formers knock out track record of exporting salafist and takfiri idealogies around the globe...).This would probably result in the ending of the conflict in a matter of months and the ending of the worst suffering for civilians. Afterward when stability has been restored, all governments should engage with the Syrians and hold an open and fair election to decide what future the SYRIAN people wish to decide for THEMSELVES rather than what the west thinks is best for them.

Unfortunately, this is the idea I can see the least chance of happening because of a couples of reasons ( Americas proxy war with Iran here, the independence of the Syrian and Iranian central banks,Irans plans to try and deal oil sales in Non USD currency, the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline which Qatar want to have as theirs instead...to name a few) but none of these are for democracy or for the good of civilians but rather for individual countries own best interests .

Be like Nutella

fair play to you for putting that together.. need to read it more and break it down. Points need addressing.

dav32cs

Just to point quickly also, the anti Russia camp is really coming out here too. All these claims about Russian weapons when they are merely fulfilling signed contracts and even delaying some, this is the same thing America is doing in Egypt and in stark contrast to Saudi,Qatar and Turkey who are facilitating and funding arms shipments of over 400 tons to the rebels to keep the war going.
People are trying to discredit Russian decision making now by portraying the new homosexual law passed there recently. It is a very backward step but it is only banning giving information on homosexuality to under 18s (but this is probably the people that need the information the most as it is under 18s that are going through a turbulent time and trying to make life choices about themselves) but it is in no way shape or form in the same league as say Qatar where you can land in jail for 5 years for engaging in homosexual acts!!And no calls from Stephen Fry to boycott the World Cup in 2022...

The US can harp on about democracy all it wants - Assad won by a large majority in the last election in Syria , Bahrains peaceful anti govt protest were brutally crushed with US help and in Saudi Arabia it is outlawed to protest against the govt!!And guess which nation has not even had one election since its inception in 1934....yep..Saudi Arabia but all you'd hear from Hilary Clinton and the State Dept previously was they were 'concerned' by certain lack of liberties in the Gulf state...

That's without even getting into Saudis history of exporting and funding extremist ideologies around the globe for years, its state funded extremist colleges where all of the terrorist supporting clerics learn their trade and its state sponsored sectarian policy of destroying religious site and graves which do not conform with their narrow and backward religious views but that's for another day and another thread!!!

maquiladora

dav32cs wrote: »

'Probably' according to the western media.

'No evidence' pointing towards any government involvement but some evidence pointing towards Rebel involvement according to UN inspector Carla Del Ponte.http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/uns-carla-del-ponte-says-there-is-evidence-rebels-may-have-used-sarin-in-syria-8604920.html
(Picked a media source that is usually overly critical of the Assad government to show case - Del Pontes findings so far have been widely ignored in Western media)

There is a lot of things in your post, but one thing that is completely wrong is the Del Ponte quote. The interview was from May :

One problem: There was no such statement.

Ms. Del Ponte did say something similar—but not quite as stark—back in May: “Investigators have been in neighboring countries interviewing victims, doctors and field hospitals and, according to their report of last week which I have seen, there are strong, concrete suspicions but not yet incontrovertible proof of the use of sarin gas, from the way the victims were treated,” she told Swiss TV, referring to another alleged attack.

That story appears to have passed to ITAR-TASS via the BBC, The Washington Times and Assyrian International News Agency’s website, with the timing and wording changed.

By the end of Wednesday, a UN spokesman had told BBC Russian Service that Ms. Del Ponte didn’t say anything about the Aug. 21 attack, and that the members of the commission haven’t spoken publicly since June 4.

ITAR-TASS and Interfax reported the UN’s denial of the quote, but didn’t publish a correction. ITAR-TASS’s desk editor said the agency “took the reporter’s dispatch at face value” and the editors didn’t check it.

http://blogs.wsj.com/emergingeurope/2013/08/29/russia-goes-ballistic-over-inaccurate-syria-report/

Doctors Without Borders are not directly dealing with people on the ground. They supply the medicine for their designated hospitals(mostly in rebel areas) but have no active workers in these sites due to the ongoing threat. This means that all information they have put out is from an unknown third party on the ground whom they are dealing with.

'Médecins Sans Frontières can neither scientifically confirm the cause of these symptoms nor establish who is responsible for the attack,” said Dr. Janssens.
(Because they are not on the ground )

Unknown third parties? MSF calls it a "strong and reliable collaboration" with these hospitals, the idea that they wouldn't know who they are dealing with is laughable, I'm sorry.

So all of a sudden fighting in an area of an alleged chemical weapons attack is going to degrade or destroy all traces?? So why are the UN Inspectors over there investigating and attack that happened months ago so?If genuine, chemical traces will stay in the ground and cannot be destroyed that easily.

I never said it was going to destroy all traces, but why on earth would you continue to shell an area of suspected chemical attack in the following days? It wasn't 'fighting'. Artillery units hundreds of meters away don't 'fight' with rebels with machine guns and RPGs.
If I was innocent, the last thing I'd want to do is pound heavy artillery at the scene of a crime that I had nothing to do with.

It is estimated the roughly 40k of the casualties have been from the Syrian govt side.American policies like drone strikes which regularly kill innocent civilians are deemed to be appropriate actions but a government fighting an externally fueled war against itself targeting militants in built up area is a war crime?

I have no idea where you got that figure from, but are you trying to tell me that the majority of the people killed in the conflict have been killed by the side that hasn't been using warplanes and attack helicopters, heavy artillery and Scud missiles? .... Ok.
As for drone strikes, I am totally against those. Just because I believe that Assad's forces launched a chemical attack doesn't make me some kind of catch-all believer in all US policy.

If you find it necessary, it is quite easy to find video and photo evidence of all the crimes of the Rebel side yet there is hardly any documented evidence of Syrian army crimes, apart from the 'probable' and 'suspected' notions from the media. Last week Al Nusra executed 3 truck drivers because they didn't pass the 'How Sunni are you' exam to the required standards. 100+ soldiers executed in Khan Al Assan after they surrendered. Multiple videos of beheadings and executions of civilians and soldiers for a variety of reason. Documented evidence of child soldiers being trained.

I'm certainly not claiming that the rebels are saints. The opposition is a complex group of different factions with different ideals. Some of it is Al Nusra, some of it is former Syrian army units that defected during the early months of the uprising. Painting the whole opposition as Al Nusra is not much different from right wing Americans cherry picking militant Islamists and saying all Muslims are bad....

If in fact it is proven that in any way a chemical like attack was fully co-ordinated by the Syrian govt then those responsible should be punished to the highest level.

I agree. I'm hoping a cruise missile lands on their beds.

tac foley

Mr Cameron will not be ordering any form of involvement by the British Armed forces into the Syria conflict.

With a mighty dose of 'pie on face' he has had to admit defeat in the HoP in the face of overwhelming opposition from the rank and file of MPs, who, for once in their lives, seem to have listened hard to their constituents, and acted accordingly.

There were far too many Wooten Bassett funeral corteges for the British people to look eagerly for more.

tac

gizmo555

As a number of commentators are noting, if President Obama declares "red lines" unilaterally, he may find himself having to enforce them unilaterally.

I'm no fan of Mr Cameron, but I have to give him credit for immediately and unequivocally accepting the will of Parliament and providing the assurance requested by the opposition that he won't now involve the UK in any military action in Syria.

Contrast this with the US where Obama may not even seek Congressional approval before launching an attack. Which country looks more like a properly functioning democracy?

Amirani

dav32cs wrote: »

Just to point quickly also, the anti Russia camp is really coming out here too. All these claims about Russian weapons when they are merely fulfilling signed contracts and even delaying some, this is the same thing America is doing in Egypt and in stark contrast to Saudi,Qatar and Turkey who are facilitating and funding arms shipments of over 400 tons to the rebels to keep the war going.

Where are you seeing this? I haven't seen anyone on here particularly criticising Russia for supplying weapons to Syria.