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Tropical Storm HUMBERTO

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  • 08-09-2013 9:45pm
    #1
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭


    204015W5_NL_sm.gif
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
    500 PM AST SUN SEP 08 2013

    SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN THE
    CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA HAS DEVELOPED
    ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT BASED ON DVORAK
    ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM TAFB AND T1.5 FROM SAB. THE LOW-LEVEL
    CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE
    TO A LITTLE BIT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.

    THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/9 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED
    TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR
    THE AZORES...AND THE CURRENT WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
    CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
    ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL
    LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AND A RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD
    FROM AFRICA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO TURN RATHER
    SHARPLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AFTER 48 HOURS AND CONTINUE THAT
    TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURPRISINGLY...
    THE LARGEST SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE OCCURS WITHIN THE FIRST
    48 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE MODELS SEEMS TO CONVERGE BY 72 HOURS. THE
    NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
    MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

    A MOIST AIR MASS...WARM WATERS...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR SHOULD
    ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN AT LEAST GRADUALLY DURING THE
    NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODELS...MAINLY THE
    STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
    INTENSIFICATION RATE AFTER 24 HOURS. SHIPS AND LGEM HAVE TENDED TO
    HAVE A HIGH BIAS THIS HURRICANE SEASON...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
    IS KEPT A BIT LOWER. THE FORECAST DOES...HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE THE
    CYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS.

    GIVEN THE FORECAST...AND THE UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW BIG THE WIND FIELD
    WILL GET ONCE THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...A TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 08/2100Z 13.1N 20.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
    12H 09/0600Z 13.2N 22.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
    24H 09/1800Z 13.5N 24.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
    36H 10/0600Z 13.9N 26.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
    48H 10/1800Z 14.5N 27.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
    72H 11/1800Z 17.5N 29.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
    96H 12/1800Z 21.0N 31.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
    120H 13/1800Z 23.5N 32.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

    $$
    FORECASTER BERG


Comments

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    #2
    rhonin
    Registered Users Posts: 1,248 ✭✭✭rhonin


    Now tropical storm HUMBERTO.
    They are saying it could become a hurricane on Wednesday.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/090844.shtml?


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    #3
    rhonin
    Registered Users Posts: 1,248 ✭✭✭rhonin


    Sustained winds of 65mph now. Looking like it will be upgraded to a hurricane later today.
    000
    WTNT34 KNHC 100845
    TCPAT4

    BULLETIN
    TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 7
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
    500 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013

    ...HUMBERTO ON A STRENGTHENING TREND...
    ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


    SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    LOCATION...14.4N 26.6W
    ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.6 WEST. HUMBERTO IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN
    TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
    LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
    KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...
    AND HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

    TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    NONE


    NEXT ADVISORY
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


  • Options
    #4
    rhonin
    Registered Users Posts: 1,248 ✭✭✭rhonin


    Upgraded to hurricane.
    000
    WTNT34 KNHC 110852
    TCPAT4

    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
    500 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013

    ...HUMBERTO BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON OVER THE FAR
    EASTERN ATLANTIC...


    SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    LOCATION...16.0N 28.9W
    ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.9 WEST. HUMBERTO IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. THE CYCLONE
    IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
    SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
    KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HUMBERTO COULD STRENGTHEN MORE TODAY
    BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND LIKELY STARTS ON THURSDAY.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
    MILES...185 KM.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    NONE


    NEXT ADVISORY
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER BLAKE


  • Options
    #5
    Mr Cumulonimbus
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,463 ✭✭✭Mr Cumulonimbus


    Current GFS model runs are bringing this system towards Ireland by next weekend. NHC advisories are saying though that other models aren't agreeing on bringing Humberto at such speed eastwards. Interesting all the same!

    gfs-0-180_dgn2.png


  • Options
    #6
    savj2
    Registered Users Posts: 108 ✭✭savj2


    I've been checking the European model for Humberto. Looks like it could hit Ireland Sunday 22nd or Monday 23rd as an extratropical cyclone. That could bring flooding.


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  • Options
    #7
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    savj2 wrote: »
    I've been checking the European model for Humberto. Looks like it could hit Ireland Sunday 22nd or Monday 23rd as an extratropical cyclone. That could bring flooding.

    12Z GFS shows it heading way north with a high pressure over Ireland, bone dry here and very nice with 12+ uppers rolling over us.

    Nm52Rl3.png


  • Options
    #8
    tomcosgrave
    Registered Users Posts: 327 ✭✭tomcosgrave


    Humberto is back. Looks like we might get something from it down the line...


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