Burton: Country in 'recovery mode' following dramatic fall on Live Register

Outkast_IRE

http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/burton-country-in-recovery-mode-following-dramatic-fall-on-live-register-606622.html

Is there more figure massaging going on here ?

Does anybody here know when the swap from jobseekers to Back to education happens on paper ?
If it happened last week then that would explain this relatively significant drop.

hmmm

As if Burton and her Labour colleagues have had any part to play in the economic recovery. Instead they have continued to allow a bloated state to be hung around the necks of everyone in the country who works for a living, and they are still fighting to prevent any reduction in the cost of this state in the budget. Her latest plan to increase PRSI for the self employed is hardly a measure that will help employment.

_Kaiser_

I don't buy it. As it says in the article weekly figures aren't normally released, but she did so anyway. Strikes me as headline grabbing but the context of the press release and how this came up would help.

I think the OP is right that with schools and colleges coming back it's more likely to be smoke and mirrors than any real drop IMO.

She is the idiot who claimed that welfare drives the economy.

Gaillimh1976

All part-time teachers go on the dole for the summer, this would be their first full week back at work in most cases

Plus students going back to college who were also on dole for summer

theteal

Similar shenanigans going on over here. Unemployment is down, great but, part-time employment is at it's highest level EVER. How many of these people are on the new craze of "zero hour contracts"?

I shall remain sceptical

the butcher

She shouldn't of released those figures, they are not seasonally adjusted. It doesn't take into account trends. Grrrr!!! Stupid Labour at it again!

Doom

My wife is unemployed, she is not entitled to welfare because I earn enough...she does not appear on any register for unemployed...lots if people in similar positions I would expect...no doubt this helps their massaged figures.
Not to mention the exodus of young people to Oz and Canada.

barneystinson

Doom wrote: »

My wife is unemployed, she is not entitled to welfare because I earn enough...she does not appear on any register for unemployed...lots if people in similar positions I would expect...no doubt this helps their massaged figures.
Not to mention the exodus of young people to Oz and Canada.

I don't see how either of the above accounts for a movement of 7,700 people in one week off the live register...?

The earlier posters talking about people signing off to go back to school/college are probably right.

antoobrien

Outkast_IRE wrote: »

http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/burton-country-in-recovery-mode-following-dramatic-fall-on-live-register-606622.html

Is there more figure massaging going on here ?

It's not figure massaging, but as has already been pointed out there is normally a drop in numbers signing on at this time of the year. Using the raw numbers in this fashion is misleading, they need to be adjusted for "seasonal factors" before we can take them in any way seriously.

theteal wrote: »

Similar shenanigans going on over here. Unemployment is down, great but, part-time employment is at it's highest level EVER.

How does that mean shenanigans? People are taking part time work for various reasons, including not losing certain welfare entitlements.

theteal wrote: »

How many of these people are on the new craze of "zero hour contracts"?

There's nothing new about this, it was formerly called casual work, mostly used in hospitality. Of courtse given the automation of payroll systems etc this got harder and harder to do until the capabilities of software used caught up with the practices, so this is making a comeback.

Doom

barneystinson wrote: »

I don't see how either of the above accounts for a movement of 7,700 people in one week off the live register...?

The earlier posters talking about people signing off to go back to school/college are probably right.

I'm just mentioning it as an example of figures not reflecting the real situation of unemployment.

Sleepy

Joan Burton spouting economically illiterate crap?! :eek: :rolleyes:

ardmacha

Joan Burton spouting economically illiterate crap?!

I wonder does she post here?

Voltex

Yeah..keep the figures be bad!! Its not as much fun if the live reg. figures are going up.

In fairness..Im not a fan of Labour, but do you really think a seasoned politician like Joan Burton would say such a thing if it was open to straight forward critical examination? They have press secretaries you know!!

I think the news is great...and I hope we see a supported reflection in the employment stats!

antoobrien

Voltex wrote: »

Yeah..keep the figures be bad!! Its not as much fun if the live reg. figures are going up.

In fairness..Im not a fan of Labour, but do you really think a seasoned politician like Joan Burton would say such a thing if it was open to straight forward critical examination? They have press secretaries you know!!

I think the news is great...and I hope we see a supported reflection in the employment stats!

If she'd have said 7k off with 5k new jobs (i.e. not contract teachers taking up jobs they had last year etc) then it'd be something worthy of news. AS it is, it is very open to something as straightforward as we are discussing, especially considering the naivety of releasing raw figures for this month.

It'll be interesting to see what happens when the cso come out with their "seasonally adjusted" figures.

KwackerJack

Id love to see this 'drop in the live register' figures

4 of my friends have left Ireland the past 2 weeks! They were claiming benefits so have they contributed to the recovery of Irelands economy now the there off the dole!

everdead.ie

Any drop in the Live Register is of course welcome but I believe there was a significant drop last year as well but the seasonally adjusted figures were just 400 off the live register.

That said more people in part time employment doesn't take people off the live register unless they are working more than three days a week(not including Sunday).

ardmacha

Quarterly National Household Survey shows employment is up 58,000 in the year.
Were this trend to continue then real inroads could be made on unemployment and this in turn would benefit public finances.

spank_inferno

Unemployment is falling, however GNP is still contracting.

The government policy of people working for free is bearing their desired fruit!

ressem

According to page 12 of that report

employment in Agriculture, Food and fishing made a large jump from 84.1K employed to 108.9K between Q3 2012 to Q3 2013.

Accommodation and food services employment from 119.1K to 133K.
Industry employment from 231.4K to 242.6K
Professional, scientific and technical activities from 101.4K to 111K

That is a substantial increase in these industries.

and on page 16, 19 thousand more people now registered as self employed since Q3 2012.

fricatus

Maybe we should ask Etihad and Emirates for their passenger numbers into and out of Dublin over the past month or two. That would probably clear things up!

ardmacha

Maybe we should ask Etihad and Emirates for their passenger numbers into and out of Dublin over the past month or two. That would probably clear things up!

Are people coming to work from the UAE? People leaving would not lead to the recorded increase in employment.

ezra_pound

Doom wrote: »

My wife is unemployed, she is not entitled to welfare because I earn enough...she does not appear on any register for unemployed...lots if people in similar positions I would expect...no doubt this helps their massaged figures.
Not to mention the exodus of young people to Oz and Canada.

Total rubbish.

This data is based on national households survey. So if you're unemployed you're unemployed. Nothing to do with qualifying for benefits.

ezra_pound

fricatus wrote: »

Maybe we should ask Etihad and Emirates for their passenger numbers into and out of Dublin over the past month or two. That would probably clear things up!

No. It would not explain 58000 more people working. Unless the figures show emigrants returning home to work here.

KwackerJack

Wait and see the figures when work dries up elsewhere and they all come back home!!

Might leave myself.....I'm only on 8k a month and i don't think I can afford the tax on my 1.4 focus

ezra_pound

KwackerJack wrote: »

Wait and see the figures when work dries up elsewhere and they all come back home!!

Might leave myself.....I'm only on 8k a month and i don't think I can afford the tax on my 1.4 focus

Only 8k a month?

KwackerJack

ezra_pound wrote: »

Only 8k a month?

Haha have you seen the news lately?

ressem

Finfacts points out that the CSO warn that the 29% jump in employment associated with Agriculture etc is a statistical correction since the census, as numbers had previously been underreported.

The other gains should hold up though. But the annual employment growth might only be half of the headline figure.

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1026894.shtml wrote:

One note of caution on interpreting the sectoral breakdown: the CSO added a health warning to the massive 25,100 increase (+29.3%) in agricultural employment over the year as the impact of the introduction of a new population sample following Census 2011. This incremental process will be complete by Q4 2013, after which time the rise in agriculture should level off. This overestimation is due to a reciprocal underestimation of agricultural employment after Census 2006.

ressem

ressem wrote: »

Finfacts points out that the CSO warn that the 29% jump in employment associated with Agriculture etc is a statistical correction since the census, as numbers had previously been underreported.

The other gains should hold up though. But the annual employment growth might only be half of the headline figure.

Exactly we didn`t suddenly have an extra 25k farmers appear in the past 12 months, leaving the workforce shrinking by what 8k ? if you subtract the 25k adjustment.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2013/1126/489176-national-quarterly-household-survey/

Taoiseach targets 10% unemployment by 2016

10% unemployment is a target to aim for 8/9 years after it all went wrong. Really illustrates the depth of this mess

tfromkerry

Kenny is on re-election mode :mad::mad:

They make out these figure,s based on people who go off the live register , regardless of why they go off . How many leave the country , figure,s say 1,700 Irish people a week yes a week leave and that not allowing for non national who go back to there country .

Also they don't count people

1 Returning college students .
2 like stated above teachers returning to full time work .
3 Job bridge 6542 people
4 WPP1 and WPP2 (free employment)
5 Returning to Adult education 25,000 people registered 2012 *With a further 10% to 15% increase expect in 2013 figure,s
6 75,000 people doing some sort of fas/solas course/program
7 5,900 on springboard

http://www.learningireland.ie/adult-education-statistics/index.html


That in the region of 125,000 people give or take a bit , Not including Students returning to college .

My figure say with the 282,900 on the dole 125,000 from above plus probable another 50/75,000 not mentioned figure Unemployed in Ireland today is in the region of 22% to 25% closer to 25% and not the 12.8% talked about with this government


"That gives us a figure of approximately 304,900 people participating in some form of adult learning in 2012."

The CSO figure,s are flawed as well as stated in the link below ," They also reveal an increase in the size of the labour force of 16,300 over the year to stand at 2,182,100. "

The above statement say jobs increased by 16,300 yet they also say quote below
"Employment grew by 58,000 (3.2%) in the year to the third quarter of 2013 to stand at a total of 1,899,300. Of the increase in employment, 53,500 are full time jobs while 4,500 are part time"

So how did the labour force increase by just 16,300 But they were 58,000 increase in employment , are some people working 3 jobs

Kenny also states that he is looking to get the figure of unemployed down to 10% by the next election 2016 which is 2 year time give or take a month or 2

So if the employment figure today stand at 282,900 which is 12.8% . His target is to knock 2.8% off this which is nearly 8,000 which is say 4,000 per year .

The leader of this country has vowed to create 4,000 job per year till 2016 .
4,000 jobs Kenny are you for real , 4,000 jobs .

This leader is a joke , get rid of him before he/they make pure utter ****e of our country :mad::mad::mad::mad:

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2013/1126/489176-national-quarterly-household-survey/

tfromkerry

May i also add that on feb of this year kenny stated he will create 100,000 by 2016 . He seems to like this figure (think i hear this before)

Now we are down to 8,000 what has happened to the other 92,000 jobs

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0213/312230-jobs/

AlmightyCushion

tfromkerry wrote: »

The CSO figure,s are flawed as well as stated in the link below ," They also reveal an increase in the size of the labour force of 16,300 over the year to stand at 2,182,100. "

The above statement say jobs increased by 16,300 yet they also say quote below
"Employment grew by 58,000 (3.2%) in the year to the third quarter of 2013 to stand at a total of 1,899,300. Of the increase in employment, 53,500 are full time jobs while 4,500 are part time"

So how did the labour force increase by just 16,300 But they were 58,000 increase in employment , are some people working 3 jobs

The size of the labour force grew meaning there are more people available for work. Employment grew meaning that more of these people are working. The increase comes from more people leaving the live register and getting jobs.

tfromkerry wrote: »

Kenny also states that he is looking to get the figure of unemployed down to 10% by the next election 2016 which is 2 year time give or take a month or 2

So if the employment figure today stand at 282,900 which is 12.8% . His target is to knock 2.8% off this which is nearly 8,000 which is say 4,000 per year .

The leader of this country has vowed to create 4,000 job per year till 2016 .
4,000 jobs Kenny are you for real , 4,000 jobs .

This leader is a joke , get rid of him before he/they make pure utter ****e of our country :mad::mad::mad::mad:

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2013/1126/489176-national-quarterly-household-survey/

Your maths is way off. If unemployment dropped from 12.8% to 10% and every thing else stayed exactly the same then we'd be looking at a drop of over 60,000. You just took 2.8% of the total figure when going from 12.8% to 10% is actually a drop of over 20%

ezra_pound

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

The size of the labour force grew meaning there are more people available for work. Employment grew meaning that more of these people are working. The increase comes from more people leaving the live register and getting jobs.



Your maths is way off. If unemployment dropped from 12.8% to 10% and every thing else stayed exactly the same then we'd be looking at a drop of over 60,000. You just took 2.8% of the total figure when going from 12.8% to 10% is actually a drop of over 20%

I was just about to say the same.

ardmacha

tfromkerry wrote: »

Kenny is on re-election mode :mad::mad:

They make out these figure,s based on people who go off the live register , regardless of why they go off . How many leave the country , figure,s say 1,700 Irish people a week yes a week leave and that not allowing for non national who go back to there country .

Also they don't count people

1 Returning college students .
2 like stated above teachers returning to full time work .
3 Job bridge 6542 people
4 WPP1 and WPP2 (free employment)
5 Returning to Adult education 25,000 people registered 2012 *With a further 10% to 15% increase expect in 2013 figure,s
6 75,000 people doing some sort of fas/solas course/program
7 5,900 on springboard

http://www.learningireland.ie/adult-education-statistics/index.html


That in the region of 125,000 people give or take a bit , Not including Students returning to college .

My figure say with the 282,900 on the dole 125,000 from above plus probable another 50/75,000 not mentioned figure Unemployed in Ireland today is in the region of 22% to 25% closer to 25% and not the 12.8% talked about with this government


"That gives us a figure of approximately 304,900 people participating in some form of adult learning in 2012."

The CSO figure,s are flawed as well as stated in the link below ," They also reveal an increase in the size of the labour force of 16,300 over the year to stand at 2,182,100. "

The above statement say jobs increased by 16,300 yet they also say quote below
"Employment grew by 58,000 (3.2%) in the year to the third quarter of 2013 to stand at a total of 1,899,300. Of the increase in employment, 53,500 are full time jobs while 4,500 are part time"

So how did the labour force increase by just 16,300 But they were 58,000 increase in employment , are some people working 3 jobs

Kenny also states that he is looking to get the figure of unemployed down to 10% by the next election 2016 which is 2 year time give or take a month or 2

So if the employment figure today stand at 282,900 which is 12.8% . His target is to knock 2.8% off this which is nearly 8,000 which is say 4,000 per year .

The leader of this country has vowed to create 4,000 job per year till 2016 .
4,000 jobs Kenny are you for real , 4,000 jobs .

This leader is a joke , get rid of him before he/they make pure utter ****e of our country :mad::mad::mad::mad:

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2013/1126/489176-national-quarterly-household-survey/

This is one of the least accurate posts on boards for a long time, which is saying something.

Others have noted the percentages. I'll just note that the labour force increased by just 16,300, but they was a 58,000 increase in employment, because some people previously unemployed found jobs.

People have talked about emigration, without which the labour force might have increased more rapidly, but this is still good news.

tfromkerry

Well they stated an increase in labour force and labour place , also they are stating that our overall labour force is 2,182,100. And what i meant to ask was if the labour force increase by 16,000 plus and labour place (jobs) increased by 58,000 plus going on the labour force figure,s it would be more than 3.2% increase as stated by the CSO

And as you say yourself if things stay exactly the same way Eg 282,900/12.8% people unemployed as present , He has said he is looking to get down to 10%/254610

282900
254610 -
.28290

The new live Register figure,s by 2016 according to kenny would be 254610 which from the overall labour force 2,182,100 Which would mean that in 2 years 28290 people were taking off the live register . now allow for the % of them who went back to education with increases, of 15% year on year which would allow for some 8,000 bring the figure now down to 20000 for 2 years . now allow fas/solas/job bridge and so

Proper job creation from these figure would be 8000/10000 over the 2 years .He promised 100,000 over 2

Also my figure and % above are not far off as your saying , i bet all in the unemployment figure in ireland today is near 25% than the 12% FG/Lab are spouting

ardmacha

And what i meant to ask was if the labour force increase by 16,000 plus and labour place (jobs) increased by 58,000 plus going on the labour force figure,s it would be more than 3.2% increase as stated by the CSO

Using base 10, employment was 1,841,300, and increased by 58,000, which is a 3.2% increase in my book (or about 3.15% for the more precise).

tfromkerry

ardmacha wrote: »

Using base 10, employment was 1,841,300, and increased by 58,000, which is a 3.2% increase in my book (or about 3.15% for the more precise).

Well employment before and after i never allowed for in this case . i based it on the new figure rather than the figure before the adjustment

How ever this still don't change the overall % of people unemployed in this stated . :mad::mad: And our government shouting out 12.8% unemployment , thats means we have over 1.9m people working , do we hell .

tfromkerry

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

The size of the labour force grew meaning there are more people available for work. Employment grew meaning that more of these people are working. The increase comes from more people leaving the live register and getting jobs.



Your maths is way off. If unemployment dropped from 12.8% to 10% and every thing else stayed exactly the same then we'd be looking at a drop of over 60,000. You just took 2.8% of the total figure when going from 12.8% to 10% is actually a drop of over 20%

You can play away with number,s all you like , but if 12.8% = 282,900 of unemployed people from our work force of 2,182,100 well then that's also wrong as 12% of 2,182,100 is 261852 . And saying 282,900 is right then 10% of people unemployed 221,015 which is only 40,000 and not 60,000 and over 2+ years is 20,000 a year off the live register , how many of them will be in full paid employment

And i am still asking where is kenny,s 100,000 Jobs

ardmacha

And i am still asking where is kenny,s 100,000 Jobs

If Kenny promised 100,000 jobs by 2016 and employment has increased by 58,000 in 2013, I'd say he is looking good to achieve the target.

everdead.ie

tfromkerry wrote: »

Well employment before and after i never allowed for in this case . i based it on the new figure rather than the figure before the adjustment

How ever this still don't change the overall % of people unemployed in this stated . :mad::mad: And our government shouting out 12.8% unemployment , thats means we have over 1.9m people working , do we hell .

1,841,300 before, and increased by 58,000

That is 1,899,300 in employment at the moment just 700 short of 1.9m.

Also of the 58,000 jobs created 4,500 were part time jobs as stated in the report.

tfromkerry

ardmacha wrote: »

If Kenny promised 100,000 jobs by 2016 and employment has increased by 58,000 in 2013, I'd say he is looking good to achieve the target.

You see that's propaganda , First off the by 2016 there will be at least 160,000 plus people either on fas/solas/back to education/others plus figures adjusted give it 240,000 on the register (them figure,s is been kind in my opinion) making 400,000 people not working unemployed in Ireland and with work force at 2,182,100 and allowing say 15,000 each year increase it will be say 2,212,100

Now take kennys 100,000 jobs , leaving the amount of people in Ireland in 2016 which do not have a job and are getting a social welfare payment 300.000 .

Which form the over all work force 2,212,100 is in the region of 14.5% still unemployed in Ireland in 2016 :mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad:

And that saying Kenny Create,s 100,000 jobs and not just take people off the dole payment systems and put them else where in the systems

All that after we gave our billions away

ardmacha

And that saying Kenny Create,s 100,000 jobs and not just take people off the dole payment systems and put them else where in the systems

The CSO household survey suggests that there will be 100,000 jobs, if things carry on. This is not propoganda, it is fact. Whether this is enough is another thing.

tfromkerry

everdead.ie wrote: »

1,841,300 before, and increased by 58,000

That is 1,899,300 in employment at the moment just 700 short of 1.9m.

Also of the 58,000 jobs created 4,500 were part time jobs as stated in the report.

I don't believe that in Ireland today they are 1.9m people in paid employment .

Our tax intake must be great

everdead.ie

tfromkerry wrote: »

I don't believe that in Ireland today they are 1.9m people in paid employment .

Our tax intake must be great

Our income tax take is outperforming Government predictions there are almost possible over 1.9m at this stage people employed this is supported by facts rather than conjecture.

tfromkerry

ardmacha wrote: »

The CSO household survey suggests that there will be 100,000 jobs, if things carry on. This is not propoganda, it is fact. Whether this is enough is another thing.

I have not read that report , have you a link for it . And people are forgetting also that we are still losing our jobs here in Ireland

And keep in mind 1,700 Irish people leaving every week , which adjusts the % lovely for any government on election mode . say the last 1/4 some 20,000 people left and give another 5000 non Irish thats 25000 easily . take that over the course of the year its a 100,000 people and with 58,000 jobs created that in its self is a short fall of 42,000

Ask yourself s of them 58,000 jobs , how many did the government actually create as apposed to jobs been left vacant by some off the 100,000 that left.

It easy to come and and give reports about this that and which ever , but why cant they come and and give a detailed account of the Irish employment sector and labour force and from that real figures can be taken

everdead.ie

tfromkerry wrote: »

I have not read that report , have you a link for it . And people are forgetting also that we are still losing our jobs here in Ireland

And keep in mind 1,700 Irish people leaving every week , which adjusts the % lovely for any government on election mode . say the last 1/4 some 20,000 people left and give another 5000 non Irish thats 25000 easily . take that over the course of the year its a 100,000 people and with 58,000 jobs created that in its self is a short fall of 42,000

Ask yourself s of them 58,000 jobs , how many did the government actually create as apposed to jobs been left vacant by some off the 100,000 that left.

It easy to come and and give reports about this that and which ever , but why cant they come and and give a detailed account of the Irish employment sector and labour force and from that real figures can be taken

The 58,000 jobs are jobs that were not there last year it is an increase in jobs.

No one has stated that we are creating enough jobs to turn the tide on emigration and start welcoming back but the country is producing new full time jobs every week taking people off the dole.

ezra_pound

tfromkerry wrote: »

I have not read that report , have you a link for it . And people are forgetting also that we are still losing our jobs here in Ireland

And keep in mind 1,700 Irish people leaving every week , which adjusts the % lovely for any government on election mode . say the last 1/4 some 20,000 people left and give another 5000 non Irish thats 25000 easily . take that over the course of the year its a 100,000 people and with 58,000 jobs created that in its self is a short fall of 42,000

Ask yourself s of them 58,000 jobs , how many did the government actually create as apposed to jobs been left vacant by some off the 100,000 that left.

It easy to come and and give reports about this that and which ever , but why cant they come and and give a detailed account of the Irish employment sector and labour force and from that real figures can be taken

Give it up mate.

You're starting to make me feel emvarrased for you.

58000 net new jobs. If you don't get that then I suggest you stop discussing economics.

tfromkerry

everdead.ie wrote: »

Our income tax take is outperforming Government predictions there are almost possible over 1.9m at this stage people employed this is supported by facts rather than conjecture.

Hmmm I wonder how much of the governments information is conjecture as apposed to facts

And 1.9m people in paid employment my my how good is FG/LAB after all

And ezra_pound are you kenny in disguise or even murkel :D:p

ezra_pound

tfromkerry wrote: »

Hmmm I wonder how much of the governments information is conjecture as apposed to facts

And 1.9m people in paid employment my my how good is FG/LAB after all

And ezra_pound are you kenny in disguise or even murkel :D:p

No. I'm not from mayo but I do like cycling and gesturing with my hands.

I think the current government are doing a really great job at sorting out the country and am sick of people knocking them.

tfromkerry

ezra_pound wrote: »

Give it up mate.

You're starting to make me feel emvarrased for you.

58000 net new jobs. If you don't get that then I suggest you stop discussing economics.

No need to feel embarrassed for me at all .

And i get it , that's the problem even with 58000 "net jobs" they still have a massive short fall .

What are they doing with all the money they have ear marked for job creation , i doubt they are creating 20,000 paid jobs a year

tfromkerry

ezra_pound wrote: »

No. I'm not from mayo but I do like cycling and gesturing with my hands.

I think the current government are doing a really great job at sorting out the country and am sick of people knocking them.

I don't think they are , and sick of people defending them .

Get them creating real proper jobs and then i will defend them , but all they are doing is releasing these false figure,s to look good . FACT there are well over 420,000 people still unemployed today in Ireland . That is a big problem in my eyes and if that is there " really great " way of sorting out our country well then we are in big big trouble and that's not conjecture .