Rory McIlroy - 4 Time Major Winner

yaboya1

It's easy to get carried away. If Rory wins three of next year's four majors he will then be in the same position Tiger was at the age of 26 (7 majors). At that time it looked a cert that Woods would beat Nicklaus's record, but 12 years later he's still well short and may never win another one. At the moment Rory does look unbeatable, but we all know that's not going to go on forever. He may well beat Tiger & Jack's record, but it definitely won't be the formality that some think. I wouldn't be touching that 2/1!

SaveOurLyric

yaboya1 wrote: »

It's easy to get carried away.

It is. The considered conservative estimate for Woods a few years ago was that he would get to 23 or so majors.

SharpshooterTom

SaveOurLyric wrote: »

It is. The considered conservative estimate for Woods a few years ago was that he would get to 23 or so majors.

I suppose the argument is that Rory's swing isn't as likely to physically wear on him the way it did for Woods, so people are making assumptions that whereas Woods could be have won his last major at the age 32 (quite possible now) Rory certainly wont win his last major by 32, that's the 'theory' anyway.

SaveOurLyric

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

I suppose the argument is that Rory's swing isn't as likely to physically wear on him the way it did for Woods, so people are making assumptions that whereas Woods could be have won his last major at the age 32 (quite possible now) Rory certainly wont win his last major by 32, that's the 'theory' anyway.

I would guess that Rory swing is very stressful. Which is OK at 25, and was for WOods also. But the strongest, most 'athletic' swinging golfers tend to have careers that more closely match more 'athletic' sport (football, rugby, hurling etc), and decline pretty quickly from 30 onwards.
Rory is not a big frame man or naturally physically muscular. Yet, clearly from the phenomenal driving we have seen from him over the last month, and the very fullness of the turn of his back on his follow through, and the squareness of his feet at address, he must be putting great strain on himself. He is managing it and recovering from it without trouble. But that what being in your 20s allows.

SaveOurLyric

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

Rory certainly wont win his last major by 32, that's the 'theory' anyway.

Not my theory. I guess more likely is that he will suffer an indefinable loss of form about that age. It may be gradual and no clearly even evident. Just a year or two will go by with no major. And that is if he is lucky and injuries dont start to impede him. The other possibility could be him taking a calculated gamble to tone back the power, make his swing less body stressful, and prolong his career at that way. Betting on the longer career even if not quite as performant, will add up to a greater number of majors in the long run. Nicklaus did that in the late 70s. And would not have got to the 18 had he not.

GreeBo

I'll be interested to see how he reacts to playing poorly next time. It's unrealistic to think he will keep going like this without having a mare somewhere along the way. In the past he has sunk without trace during bad spells, let's see if he can throw in some top 5/10s during the bad weeks.

GreeBo

Also, who's to say another golfing genius won't come along to take a few majors off him?
Mr Fowler could easily have a few by now, Sergio too maybe.

h2005

GreeBo wrote: »

Also, who's to say another golfing genius won't come along to take a few majors off him?
Mr Fowler could easily have a few by now, Sergio too maybe.

Jordan speith can be added to that.

Dolph Starbeam

h2005 wrote: »

Jordan speith can be added to that.

I know he's still very young but he is so inconsistent. 2nd in the Masters but has missed the cut both years at the PGA Championship. Agree that he wil definitely be a major winner soon though.

There are too many top class golfers for McIlroy to reach Tigers 14 majors. Between Scott, Fowler, Day, Stenson, Garcia, Rose, Kuchar and even younger players coming through like Spieth, Manaserro and Olesen. I still think he will win between 10 and 12 majors though.

slave1

Interesting article
http://www.irishgolfdesk.com/news-files/2014/8/12/rory-mcilroy-golfs-billion-dollar-ticket-and-counting

slave1

slave1 wrote: »

Interesting article
http://www.irishgolfdesk.com/news-files/2014/8/12/rory-mcilroy-golfs-billion-dollar-ticket-and-counting

yeah... the guy is at superstar level now in terms of fame and cash - he's world-known on the basis of one name ("Rory") - how long did it take Bono do achieve that!?

SaveOurLyric

glasso wrote: »

yeah... the guy is at superstar level now in terms of fame and cash - he's world-known on the basis of one name ("Rory") - how long did it take Bono do achieve that!?

I don't think he ever did. Was always in Cher's shadow.

Tones69

GreeBo wrote: »

Also, who's to say another golfing genius won't come along to take a few majors off him?
Mr Fowler could easily have a few by now, Sergio too maybe.

"Could". But they dont. Theres a reason for that and its nothin to do with luck

yaboya1

Tones69 wrote: »

"Could". But they dont. Theres a reason for that and its nothin to do with luck

Agreed. Garcia will never win a Major. It's far from a coincidence that he's now 34 without one on his CV.

rrpc

yaboya1 wrote: »

Agreed. Garcia will never win a Major. It's far from a coincidence that he's now 34 without one on his CV.

Luck has a cerain amount to play in it, but in Garcia's case, he came on the scene at the wrong time. He's four years younger than Tiger but even if Tiger's star is waning, he now has more top competition to deal with. Even then though, you'd have to say that he never seemed to be able to take the opportunities that were presented to him like back when Harrington won The Open.

I'd still love to see him win one, if only to see the look on his face

yaboya1

rrpc wrote: »

you'd have to say that he never seemed to be able to take the opportunities that were presented to him

This, exactly.

Ormus

yaboya1 wrote: »

Agreed. Garcia will never win a Major. It's far from a coincidence that he's now 34 without one on his CV.

Mickelson was 34 when he won his first major.

The fact is that talking about golfers who will never win a major is a misnomer because the vast majority of golfers will never win a major. There are only 4 of them a year, with 100-160 golfers in each, out of something like 2,000 odd professional golfers.

'Knocking on the door' is no guarantee that it will happen, albeit it increases the chance.

If Garcia can keep his head and keep 'knocking on the door', then there is a good chance that one will fall his way. But even then, the odds are against him winning one, because the odds are against every golfer in every major.

yaboya1

Fair point, but we'll have to agree to differ.
In my opinion that's all he'll ever do (knock on the door), because when he's in the driving seat he falls apart. He was 6 shots clear of Harrington in 2007 going into the final round. His closest pursuer (3 shots behind) had a nightmare and he still couldn't finish the job. He put it in the water when leading with three holes to play in the 2008 PGA, and as soon as he thought he was back in it in this year's Open he left his ball in the sand on 15 from a simple bunker shot.
His only chance is if he's way behind going into the final round, shoots a low number and gets in the clubhouse before he has the chance to bottle it.


Edit: Going into the final round of the Bridgestone, they showed some statistic on Sky about any time he's held a 54 hole lead (could be just the PGA Tour) by two shots or more. I think it was on four or five separate occasions and didn't win any of them. Hardly a coincidence. I think the 1999 PGA was the making of Woods and a real kick in the teeth for him. If he'd won that, he may have gone on to win many more, while defeat for Woods there and he might have not as been as dominant as he turned out to be. Just my opinion though

Ormus

yaboya1 wrote: »

Fair point, but we'll have to agree to differ.
In my opinion that's all he'll ever do (knock on the door), because when he's in the driving seat he falls apart. He was 6 shots clear of Harrington in 2007 going into the final round. His closest pursuer (3 shots behind) had a nightmare and he still couldn't finish the job. He put it in the water when leading with three holes to play in the 2008 PGA, and as soon as he thought he was back in it in this year's Open he left his ball in the sand on 15 from a simple bunker shot.
His only chance is if he's way behind going into the final round, shoots a low number and gets in the clubhouse before he has the chance to bottle it.


Edit: Going into the final round of the Bridgestone, they showed some statistic on Sky about any time he's held a 54 hole lead (could be just the PGA Tour) by two shots or more. I think it was on four or five separate occasions and didn't win any of them. Hardly a coincidence. I think the 1999 PGA was the making of Woods and a real kick in the teeth for him. If he'd won that, he may have gone on to win many more, while defeat for Woods there and he might have not as been as dominant as he turned out to be. Just my opinion though

I know what you're saying, but having a 54 hole lead in golf is like being 1 millimetre ahead in a 100m race. Even worse, it's a noose around the neck. Most golfers play better when they're not in the lead. Most golfers best chance of winning a major is coming from behind, thereby minimising the time when they have to play with the incredible added pressure of being leader.

Tiger was a freak in that respect. One of the very very rare golfers who can prosper in the lead. Definitely the exception rather than the rule.

yaboya1

Ormus wrote: »

I know what you're saying, but having a 54 hole lead in golf is like being 1 millimetre ahead in a 100m race. Even worse, it's a noose around the neck. Most golfers play better when they're not in the lead. Most golfers best chance of winning a major is coming from behind, thereby minimising the time when they have to play with the incredible added pressure of being leader.

Tiger was a freak in that respect. One of the very very rare golfers who can prosper in the lead. Definitely the exception rather than the rule.

I agree. I think it's human nature to start becoming defensive when you've a lead to protect, whereas the opposite is true when you're behind. It's bizarre that Woods never won one from behind though, especially when you consider what we are saying here.

GreeBo

yaboya1 wrote: »

Agreed. Garcia will never win a Major. It's far from a coincidence that he's now 34 without one on his CV.

The vast, vast majority of 34 year old professional golfers dont have one on their cv. In fact they dont have a top 10 finish in one.

GreeBo

yaboya1 wrote: »

Fair point, but we'll have to agree to differ.
In my opinion that's all he'll ever do (knock on the door), because when he's in the driving seat he falls apart. He was 6 shots clear of Harrington in 2007 going into the final round. His closest pursuer (3 shots behind) had a nightmare and he still couldn't finish the job. He put it in the water when leading with three holes to play in the 2008 PGA,

McIlroy was how many feet away from doing the same thing at the weekend?

Or how about when he hit it off the reservation on the 10th not too many years ago?

The number of times Garcia has contended shows what a good player he is.

Nicklaus has 19 runner up's in majors....19. Is he a choker?

Garcia said in 2012 that he didnt' think that he'd ever win a major.

'I'm not good enough, I don't have the thing I need to have,' said Garcia, in an extraordinary post-round interview with the Spanish press.
When the stunned group asked whether he meant winning the Masters, he replied: 'Any major. In 13 years I have come to the conclusion that I need to play for second or third place.'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/golf/article-2127043/US-Masters-2012-Sergio-Garcia-Ill-win-major.html

He may not still believe that but it's definitely a factor that he doesn't handle the opportunities to win one very well as he has shown in the past. But he's also shown himself to be good enough to have a good chance of winning one, when means that he's a damm good golfer.

yaboya1

GreeBo wrote: »

McIlroy was how many feet away from doing the same thing at the weekend?

Or how about when he hit it off the reservation on the 10th not too many years ago?

The number of times Garcia has contended shows what a good player he is.

Nicklaus has 19 runner up's in majors....19. Is he a choker?

McIlroy is 25 and has already WON four Majors.
Nicklaus was 2nd in 19, but he WON 18.

How many has Garcia won again?
I never said he wasn't a good player. I just think he chokes in Majors when he's in contention, which the facts seem to back up. I would say Nicklaus managed to come 2nd/contend in a lot of majors when he was playing nowhere near his best. I read that he's quoted as saying he only played his best in four of the eighteen he won.

yaboya1

glasso wrote: »

Garcia said in 2012 that he didnt' think that he'd ever win a major.

'I'm not good enough, I don't have the thing I need to have,' said Garcia, in an extraordinary post-round interview with the Spanish press.
When the stunned group asked whether he meant winning the Masters, he replied: 'Any major. In 13 years I have come to the conclusion that I need to play for second or third place.'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/golf/article-2127043/US-Masters-2012-Sergio-Garcia-Ill-win-major.html

He may not still believe that but it's definitely a factor that he doesn't handle the opportunities to win one very well as he has shown in the past. But he's also shown himself to be good enough to have a good chance of winning one, when means that he's a damm good golfer.

He is definitely a good enough golfer to win one. No arguments there.
Mentally though I think he's lacking. Contend regularly, yes. Win, no.
As I said earlier, I really see the 1999 PGA as a turning point in both his and Woods's careers. Woods won four of the next five majors after that, while he as yet has still failed to bag one. Had he won that tournament, who knows what way things would have worked out?

yaboya1

GreeBo wrote: »

The vast, vast majority of 34 year old professional golfers dont have one on their cv. In fact they dont have a top 10 finish in one.

True, but how many of them are in the top five in the World Rankings?

Ormus

yaboya1 wrote: »

True, but how many of them are in the top five in the World Rankings?

How many golfers in the world who are over 34 and haven't yet won a major do you think are more likely to win one than Sergio?

I can think of only 2.

yaboya1

Ormus wrote: »

How many golfers in the world who are over 34 and haven't yet won a major do you think are more likely to win one than Sergio?

I can think of only 2.

I don't think Garcia will ever win one because I feel he lacks the mental fortitude required. I am not saying there are other 34yo+ golfers more likely to win one.

Would love to hear your two though.....

rrpc

yaboya1 wrote: »

True, but how many of them are in the top five in the World Rankings?

Garcia hasn't always been in the top 5. In fact he's only finished the year in the top ten six times. His career has been up and down a lot though but he seems to be coming in to a good stretch of form at the moment. We'll see how that pans out.

I'm certainly not writing him off yet.

Benny Cake

I reckon for Garcia to win one it will have to land in his lap, similar to the way Ells won the British Open after Adam Scotts capitulation. On the basis that Garcia contends on a consistent basis you can't rule him out altogether...