The Football Tips Thread V

Vinz Mesrine

cson wrote: »

City took Wigan for granted in that match and paid the price; some truly awful defending for both goals (a Demichelis special for the penalty) and even then they'd a truckload of chances to equalise and even win the match. Carson had a motm performance, Boyce cleared from under his own crossbar, City hit the bar a couple of times. Lady Luck was the 12th man (lady? :pac:) for them that day.

Arsenal won't be taking Wigan for granted after whats gone on, a number of players with a point to prove, the carrot of an FA Cup Final place and mainly; Aaron Ramsey is starting.

Hate to say I told you so, Wigan are no pushovers and are a premiership team in waiting. There are 20 minutes left but no matter what happens, they have proven my point.

djPSB

Vinz Mesrine wrote: »

Hate to say I told you so, Wigan are no pushovers and are a premiership team in waiting. There are 20 minutes left but no matter what happens, they have proven my point.

And Arsenal are brutal.

cson

cson wrote: »

Rarely back for/against my own team but I can see an Arsenal backlash against Wigan on Saturday. I think the market is being led by Arsenal's poor form, this has come from an incredibly difficult run of games and tactics that have played into the opposition hands. I just can't see Wenger making the same mistake twice. The expanses of Wembley will suit, I think the players will be up for the occasion and when you drill down into it; its 4th in the Premier League versus 5th in the Championship. There's a huge gulf in class.

Arsenal (-1) @ 5/4 (Powers)
Arsenal (-2) @ 10/3 (Powers)
Arsenal 3-0 Correct Score @ 21/2 (Bet Victor)

Apologies to anyone who followed. Something is gone very very wrong with Arsenal FC unfortunately. Hopefully the club can get someone in to take us forward in the summer.

Vinz Mesrine wrote: »

Hate to say I told you so, Wigan are no pushovers and are a premiership team in waiting. There are 20 minutes left but no matter what happens, they have proven my point.

Good man, just waiting to rub it in? You had your opinion, I had mine. I hope the gloating makes you happy. :rolleyes:

Vinz Mesrine

cson wrote: »

Good man, just waiting to rub it in? You had your opinion, I had mine. I hope the gloating makes you happy. :rolleyes:

I'm not gloating at all, never have and never will. I just think it was an error on your part to underestimate a good Wigan side.

hoopyhoopy

hoopyhoopy wrote: »

Few days away but a bet i was looking forward to when the draw was made is Dundee United's Saturday early kick off in the cup against Rangers...

Definite value on the away team Dundee @ 1/1 agaisnt a team 2 Divisions below them....

Dundee having a decent season too, really impressed with them this year.. They managed to sicken me at a game i actually travelled over to see, to get a 1-1 draw in Celtic Park a game which they should have won (Late Late Celtic equaliser 90')

Dissapointed this game is going to be played in Ibrox, but still think there is definite value in backing Dundee United - there is a definite gulf in class between the two, Dundee should be winning this game. The above Celtic result shows they are more than capeable of going to a big stadium on a big day and getting a result. Celtic played a full team this day.

Dundee and Rangers actually played this time last year in the same cup where Dundee came out with a 3-0 win (Match played in Dundee however). Dundee have definately improved since then, I suppose the same can be said for Rangers also though.

Raith Rovers in the Challenge cup last weekend managed to beat Rangers 1-0 AET . Raith rovers are the division ahead of Rangers and struggling and still managed to beat them - Rangers Played their first team here also.


There is no question in my mind that Dundee have more than enough class to go to Ibrox and win comfortably. There is a huge gulf in class and standard between the two teams.

Dundee United Win 1/1

Nice to get the win on this, score line flattered Dundee however, was nervy enough at times and 2 of dundees goals were handed to them.


Going to Lump on Scottish cup tomorrow great odds being offered for Aberdeen win 21/20 in the early kick off

Aberdeen flying this season really impressed me all season, they arent too far behind Celtic this season to be fair to them, A bit more quality and they would have given Celtic a scare for the League.... Id image if you take commons goals away for Celtic this season Aberdeen would probably be ahead of them.

Aberdeen are a level above the rest of the SLP teams in my opinion and should have no problem disposing of Saint Johnston on their way to secure the cup double.

Aberdeen smashed Saint Johnston in the league cup already this season 4-0. They are on a great run lately with just 2 losses in their las 15 games winning 9 of these. They were the only team this year to beat Celtic in the league and they also beat them on their route to this Semi Final.

Saint johnston arent a great side at all, their sole threat will come from Steve May who has bagged 18 goals this season.

This semi is being played in Ibrox and from what i have read the bulk of tickets have gone to Aberdeen.

From what I believe there is no injury concerns for Aberdeen. The great thing about backing Aberdeen is their goals come from a host of players and positions, so if one player isnt on form theyve always had others to get them by. Saint johnny on the other hand really rely on May and his goals. Aberdeen should have more than enough quality to keep him quiet hopefully and if they do I cant see where else Saint johnston can get a result from.

Aberdeen have beaten Saint Johnston in 3 of the 4 fixtures between them this year and managed to do so without conceding a single goal.

Aberdeen 1 - 0 St. Johnstone
Aberdeen 4 - 0 St. Johnstone
St. Johnstone 0 - 2 Aberdeen
Aberdeen 0 - 0 St. Johnstone


There is no doubt in my mind that aberdeen will win this game and proceed to their second cup final of this season to round off an absolutely sensational season for the Dons

ABERDEEN WIN 21/20

P.Walnuts

Vinz Mesrine wrote: »

I'm not gloating at all, never have and never will. I just think it was an error on your part to underestimate a good Wigan side.

Lets make no bones about it, your gloating.

ShamoBuc

Vinz Mesrine wrote: »

I'm not gloating at all, never have and never will. I just think it was an error on your part to underestimate a good Wigan side.

When you comment that you were right and someone else was wrong, it's very hard not to call that gloating.

bradlente

re:hoopyhoopy

Dundee were lucky alright,the amount of half chances Rangers could've put away another day was shocking.They really should've been ahead after a minute.
Thought the ref had a poor game too,there could've been a few red cards out there on another day,really inconsistent stuff I thought.

hoopyhoopy

Vinz Mesrine wrote: »

Hate to say I told you so, Wigan are no pushovers and are a premiership team in waiting. There are 20 minutes left but no matter what happens, they have proven my point.

gloat

verb
gerund or present participle: gloating


dwell on one's own success or another's misfortune with smugness or malignant pleasure.

hoopyhoopy

bradlente wrote: »

re:hoopyhoopy

Dundee were lucky alright,the amount of half chances Rangers could've put away another day was shocking.They really should've been ahead after a minute.
Thought the ref had a poor game too,there could've been a few red cards out there on another day,really inconsistent stuff I thought.

yea i honestly thought the bet was goosed from watching the opening 20 mins.... In saying that , Rangers were awful sloppy in defense - every Dundee attack seemed to put them under presser and make them nervous, they made dozens of errors defensively all game and handed 2 goals to dundee.

Rangers up front were shambolic , they had at least 3 definite goal scoring opportunities which they made a hash of.

I suppose this is the difference between the SPL and Division 1, had Rangers a bit more quality up front they probably would and should have taken something from the game.

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Under 3.5 in:
Midtjylland vs Odense
Ekranas vs Trakai
@ 1.63

Under 3.5 in:
Midtjylland vs Odense
Ried vs Wacker Innsbruck
MTK Budapest vs Debrecen
@ 2.13
Wacker Innsbruck : http://int.soccerway.com/teams/austria/fc-wacker-innsbruck/167/

Majeed Warris (Valenciennes) anytime @ 4.00

Stopilla Sunzu (Sochaux) anytime @ 12.00

terrible day :mad:

francie81

Disgraceful prices on the Madrid/Almeria market considering the injuries surrounding it.

francie81

Took Madrid (-3 corner hcp) no value in anything else really.

tinodz

My last shot of the day...



Going with this, as I had a few lucky ones today, and always felt this could be a high scoring game even if important people out. With luck, Bale might be the ones that nabs the goals

greenman09

francie81 wrote: »

Took Madrid (-3 corner hcp) no value in anything else really.

Madrid not reading off same hymn sheet yet

tinodz

tinodz wrote: »

My last shot of the day...



Going with this, as I had a few lucky ones today, and always felt this could be a high scoring game even if important people out. With luck, Bale might be the ones that nabs the goals

Bale only got one - so no good. Was a Hat Trick bet BTW -- just niced screencap did not have than info.

Onto Liverpool tomorrow. Thinking of some first half goals bet, but not sure til tomorrow.

Dio On The Doubles

Taken +2.5 goals and BTTS in Tampines Rovers v Balestier Kalsa at 12.30 today 10/11

All Tampines games go overs this season but especially when they are playing after mid week AFC. They played Kitchee away and lost 0-4 mid week. Last weekend they lost 4-2 after winning 2-5 away to Pune in India.

Balister had three men sent off last game and still drew 2-2. This means that they are weakened today so Tampines should definitely score. However both sides have their main goalscorers available which gives weight to the BTTS.

Balister have only failed to score once in the six games since the season started back. It will be an open game most likely with plenty of goals hopefully due to a tired Tampines and weakened Balister.

tinodz

Both Teams to Score in First Half @ 3.40 seems worthwhile to me...

Liverpool Avg. time 1st goal scored home - 23'
Man City Avg. time 1st goal scored away - 21'

PuntersAdvice

German Bundesliga: Hoffenheim v Augsburg


-There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Hoffenheim's last 17 home games in the Bundesliga.
-Hoffenheim have scored at least 2 goals in their last 8 home matches in the Bundesliga.
-There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Augsburg's last 6 away games in the Bundesliga.
-Hoffenheim are undefeated in their last 5 home matches against Augsburg in all competitions.
-Augsburg still have a slight chance to qualify for Europe themselves after a win against Bayern last weekend. Several important players could return to the starting line-up.
-The last meeting had 24 shots with 16 on target.


Bet: Over 2.5 Goals
Bookmaker: Ladbrokes
Odds: 1.55

tinodz

tinodz wrote: »

Both Teams to Score in First Half @ 3.40 seems worthwhile to me...

Liverpool Avg. time 1st goal scored home - 23'
Man City Avg. time 1st goal scored away - 21'

Nope. Close, but nope.

Hope one of my bigger odds shots come in now.

magherakid

Hoffenheim v Augsburg
Hoffenheim Goals Over 1.5 5/6

Bet has landed in 12/14 home games

Dio On The Doubles

Dio On The Doubles wrote: »

Taken +2.5 goals and BTTS in Tampines Rovers v Balestier Kalsa at 12.30 today 10/11

All Tampines games go overs this season but especially when they are playing after mid week AFC. They played Kitchee away and lost 0-4 mid week. Last weekend they lost 4-2 after winning 2-5 away to Pune in India.

Balister had three men sent off last game and still drew 2-2. This means that they are weakened today so Tampines should definitely score. However both sides have their main goalscorers available which gives weight to the BTTS.

Balister have only failed to score once in the six games since the season started back. It will be an open game most likely with plenty of goals hopefully due to a tired Tampines and weakened Balister.

3-1on 55"

There was some crazy weather in the middle of this to cause it to be postponed for a while but they got back at it thankfully!

Lasagna Diarra

If you believe in fixed games:

over 2.5 in Aris vs Giannina (Greek league) has dropped from 1.80 to 1.30; and over 3.5 from 3.50 to 1.70

oh and the odds on Panionios vs Platanias:
5.00 - 1.29 - 9.50 :pac::pac::pac:

magherakid

magherakid wrote: »

Hoffenheim v Augsburg
Hoffenheim Goals Over 1.5 5/6

Bet has landed in 12/14 home games

in before HT

Boom

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

If you believe in fixed games:

over 2.5 in Aris vs Giannina (Greek league) has dropped from 1.80 to 1.30; and over 3.5 from 3.50 to 1.70 FT 0-0

oh and the odds on Panionios vs Platanias:
5.00 - 1.29 - 9.50 :pac::pac::pac:
FT 0-0

As always the bookies were right!

bradlente

bradlente wrote: »

Just noticed Steven Gerrard's a very popular bet on oddschecker to win Sports personality of the year.Seems like he'd be a shoe-in if Liverpool win the league and would still have a good chance if they only finish 2nd or 3rd as he'll be leading the line at the World cup too.
20/1

5/2 now.

glued

Universitatea Cluj v FC Botsani

HT/FT @ 7.00

Botsani HT, Cluj FT.

Cluj are at risk of being relegated. But one thing they have in their favour is their excellent home form which they've won five of their last six.

Botosani are safe. Their away record is quite poor losing five of their last six. They have only managed to score twice in those last six away games and the emphasis in the build up in this match has been that the manager has been to negative.

I'll be expecting a Botosani goal but Cluj have been excellent at home.

magherakid

Dijon v Metz
BTTS 10/11

Dijon have scored in all 15 home games

Metz have scored in 11/15 away games

bradlente

magherakid wrote: »

Dijon v Metz
BTTS 10/11

Dijon have scored in all 15 home games

Metz have scored in 11/15 away games

Sounds like a lot of players could be missing for this game.

http://www.foot-national.com/foot-dijon-metz-le-direct-et-les-groupes-56733.html

magherakid

bradlente wrote: »

Sounds like a lot of players could be missing for this game.

http://www.foot-national.com/foot-dijon-metz-le-direct-et-les-groupes-56733.html

didn't know that, bet is on now anyway

Lasagna Diarra

Dijon have to win this game if they want to stay in the race for promotion (which was their goal at the beginning of the season), not much at stake for Metz, motivation should be on Dijon's side, if they lose it's basically over for them
Preview of this game: http://www.lequipe.fr/Football/Actualites/Dijon-la-derniere-chance/456960

small bet on Dijon @ 2.25

magherakid

magherakid wrote: »

Dijon v Metz
BTTS 10/11

Dijon have scored in all 15 home games

Metz have scored in 11/15 away games

25mins

boom

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Dijon have to win this game if they want to stay in the race for promotion (which was their goal at the beginning of the season), not much at stake for Metz, motivation should be on Dijon's side, if they lose it's basically over for them
Preview of this game: http://www.lequipe.fr/Football/Actualites/Dijon-la-derniere-chance/456960

small bet on Dijon @ 2.25

Metz equalized at the 91st min

ironictoaster

I wish I read this thread earlier, Metz let me down in my accumulator. Lesson learnt! I am convinced I am never gonna win one of these:D

cson

West Ham +1 @ 2/1 (Bet365) is my bet this evening. This Arsenal will be shattered from Saturday night and fancy Big Sam to set up to get a result.

PuntersAdvice

Spanish Copa Del Rey: Barcelona v Real Madrid


-Both teams have scored in the last 15 meetings.
-Barcelona have seen over 2.5 goals in 13 of their last 14 matches against Real Madrid in all competitions.
-Real Madrid have scored at least 2 goals in 8 of their last 10 matches against Barcelona in all competitions.
-This is Barcelona's only chance of a trophy this season and will play very offensively.
-Barcelona have defensive problems with both Puyol and Pique doubtful and Valdes is definitely out while Madrid have their own defensive problems with both Marcelo and Khedira doubtful.
-While Ronaldo is out and obviously a massive player for Madrid, Isco has been producing the goals in his absence.
-In previous seasons this would have been an automatic 10% bet however with other factors such as Madrid's Champions League aspirations and their focus on La Liga we will be reducing the stakes on this match.


Bet: Both Teams To Score
Bookmaker: Paddy Power
Odds: 1.5

seanhynes

Sergio Ramos to get booked tonight is best priced 19/20 888bet,looks good to me ,he's shorter odds on in most other spots,sent off in the last league game between them too

AH92

seanhynes wrote: »

Sergio Ramos to get booked tonight is best priced 19/20 888bet,looks good to me ,he's shorter odds on in most other spots,sent off in the last league game between them too

Thanks for the reminder, I was looking through and perhaps Sergio Busquets could be worth a shot too as he is not as short compared to Ramos and got booked in the last 3 games head to head. Around 8/11.
For anyone interested Man City over 1 yellow card today is 15/5 on pp atm. Worth a nibble!

seanhynes

AH92 wrote: »

Thanks for the reminder, I was looking through and perhaps Sergio Busquets could be worth a shot too as he is not as short compared to Ramos and got booked in the last 3 games head to head. Around 8/11.
For anyone interested Man City over 1 yellow card today is 15/5 on pp atm. Worth a nibble!

Ya he's Barca's answer to Ramos .ya don't get around evens on Ramos too often so had to take it

bradlente

Don't have 888 or Unibet so can't get on the booking,might back him for first player booked @7.5 or to be sent off @15.Both prices in Powers gonna have a look around for better first though.

bradlente

He's 8/1 first to be booked with betvic,might try Pepe 1st to be booked either 12/1 with sky bet and 14/1 to be sent off with Powers.Will wait for line-ups and see what everyone is else is doing,maybe a few more prices will pop up before then.Can see there being a few cards tonight,think Barce especially will be desperate to get a cup under their belts after going out of Europe.

tinodz

Time of first goal in the last 14 El Clasicos

7' (Barca)
19' (Barca)
6' (Real)
13' (Real)
50' (Barca)
23' (Real)
11' (Real)
55' (Real)
17' (Real)
43' (Barca)
11' (Real)
1' (Real)
15' (Barca)
13' (Real)

Real 1st - 9 Times
Barca 1st - 5 Times
Average - 20'

Real also have a tendency to score an early goal in the Copa del Rey this season...



Real Avg. time 1st goal scored in the Copa del Rey this season - 15'
Barca Avg. time 1st goal scored in the Copa del Rey this season - 34'

So, main bet is...

Team to score First (Real) @ 2.10 (Skybet)

And, split level smaller stakes on...

Time of First Real Goal (0-10) @ 8.00 (Coral)
Time of First Real Goal (11-20) @ 8.50 (Coral)

bradlente

Like that tinodz,don't have a Coral account though.The closest thing I can see that's similar is Real to be ahead after 15 min @5.9 and Real to be ahead after 30 mins @4.10 on Marathonbet.Added risk of Barce equalising early on and ****ing it all up though so think I'll leave it.
The cards line is too high as well,I'd nearly go with unders but will probably just back someone to be sent off instead.

hoopyhoopy

Any insight into monaco odds!?? 10/11 seems very good to me in the cup tonight against a struggling side....

Im liking benfica win too home to porto at roughly evens. Benfica have deadly home record and porto struggling of late and I believe have a few injuries

Soby

Went slightly safer with Madrid 1st goal to be in the 1st half . 8/11 . 25 stake

Lasagna Diarra

hoopyhoopy wrote: »

Any insight into monaco odds!?? 10/11 seems very good to me in the cup tonight against a struggling side....

Im liking benfica win too home to porto at roughly evens. Benfica have deadly home record and porto struggling of late and I believe have a few injuries

Guingamp are one of the rare teams that took points from PSG, (1-1 at home and 0-2 away with both PSG goals coming after the 91st min), they also drew 0-0 vs St Etienne and Lille and only lost 1-0 vs Lyon, they're solid defensively and have a decent GK. Monaco did win 2-0 there earlier this season, but I think it'll be more difficult this time.

seanhynes

Over 5.0 Asian corners 1st half Bayern v Kaiserslautuern 1.825

bradlente

Settled on Ramos to be sent off and Jordi Alba to be carded at 5/4.Up against a few pacy wingers and he might have to help the center backs out a bit more than usual.

hoopyhoopy

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Guingamp are one of the rare teams that took points from PSG, (1-1 at home and 0-2 away with both PSG goals coming after the 91st min), they also drew 0-0 vs St Etienne and Lille and only lost 1-0 vs Lyon, they're solid defensively and have a decent GK. Monaco did win 2-0 there earlier this season, but I think it'll be more difficult this time.

Cheers las ;-)

tinodz

tinodz wrote: »

Time of first goal in the last 14 El Clasicos

7' (Barca)
19' (Barca)
6' (Real)
13' (Real)
50' (Barca)
23' (Real)
11' (Real)
55' (Real)
17' (Real)
43' (Barca)
11' (Real)
1' (Real)
15' (Barca)
13' (Real)

Real 1st - 9 Times
Barca 1st - 5 Times
Average - 20'

Real also have a tendency to score an early goal in the Copa del Rey this season...



Real Avg. time 1st goal scored in the Copa del Rey this season - 15'
Barca Avg. time 1st goal scored in the Copa del Rey this season - 34'

So, main bet is...

Team to score First (Real) @ 2.10 (Skybet)

And, split level smaller stakes on...

Time of First Real Goal (0-10) @ 8.00 (Coral)
Time of First Real Goal (11-20) @ 8.50 (Coral)