The Football Tips Thread V

seanhynes

Over 3.5 goals in Shaktar v Tavriya at 5 8/11,Shaktar should win this by 4-5

bradlente

seanhynes wrote: »

Over 3.5 goals in Shaktar v Tavriya at 5 8/11,Shaktar should win this by 4-5

-3 @evens would be better value for you in that case.Tariya haven't let as many in lately,they did lose this 5-0 last season though.

City and Chelsea have done a good job of making this bet look bad in the last week too :-p

seanhynes

seanhynes wrote: »

Over 3.5 goals in Shaktar v Tavriya at 5 8/11,Shaktar should win this by 4-5

cashed out goal by forty for a 94 quid loss had 200 on,taking a betting hiatus losing heavily the past few days

Colonialboy

too much banter and accas in here ..theres a thread for general stuff .
this is the tips thread
lets keep it simple folks .

inforfun

Colonialboy wrote: »

too much banter and accas in here ..theres a thread for general stuff .
this is the tips thread
lets keep it simple folks .

MOD
Colonialboy is right.

Lasagna Diarra

So this thread is pretty much dead now?

bradlente

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

So this thread is pretty much dead now?

The standard is so high now only certain winners will do:D

cson

How about just limiting it to a single selection?

Fwiw; I think Man United (-1) at Home to Norwich @ 20/21 with Ladbrokes is a cracking bet. Was Evs last night.

Fancy them to win 3/4-0 with Giggs as manager and the players out to prove a point.

-2 is 9/4 with Powers and I might go in for some of that too.

Fitzcal

Fulham over 1.5 team cards @evens

Lasagna Diarra

Ben Yedder (Toulouse) anytime @ 2.90 As I said Montpellier will have their 2nd choice keeper who's absolutely terrible

St Etienne @ 2.00 Evian had a tiring game against PSG on Wednesday and the St Etienne coach publically blasted his strikers after the 0-0 draw last week, I fancy them to react and finally score.

cson

cson wrote: »

How about just limiting it to a single selection?

Fwiw; I think Man United (-1) at Home to Norwich @ 20/21 with Ladbrokes is a cracking bet. Was Evs last night.

Fancy them to win 3/4-0 with Giggs as manager and the players out to prove a point.

-2 is 9/4 with Powers and I might go in for some of that too.

Yes and yes.

I think handicapping is my thing.

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Ben Yedder (Toulouse) anytime @ 2.90 As I said Montpellier will have their 2nd choice keeper who's absolutely terrible

St Etienne @ 2.00 Evian had a tiring game against PSG on Wednesday and the St Etienne coach publically blasted his strikers after the 0-0 draw last week, I fancy them to react and finally score.

St Etienne won 2-1

Toulouse preferred to sit back than push for a 2nd goal

Shanotheslayer

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

St Etienne won 2-1

Toulouse preferred to sit back than push for a 2nd goal

Went with over 2.5 in Toulouse game at 4/5. Got lucky

Lasagna Diarra

Posting this now as the odds will surely drop tomorrow:

Lyon -1 (vs Bastia) @ 2.10
Lyon @ 1.42 - I'd be really shocked if this didn't come in


- We (I'm a Bastia fan!) are missing our best defender Squillaci and our left back Palmieri
- We are terrible away from home, our coach only knows how to play attacking football which doesn't suit us away from home... our coach said this would be the most difficult away game of the season
- Lyon are much stronger than people think, they were unlucky with injuries and they played lots of games due to the EL and the domestic cups, they're one of the best teams atm
- Lyon have to win as their goal is to get a European spot, we, on the other hand, are officially safe from relegation

Trimm Trabb

A bet I like for tomorrow is for there to be a corner before the 9th min in Liverpool v Chelsea at 5/6 (B365).

I have been backing this successfully in Liverpool's big home games recently, expect Liverpool to come out of the traps quickly and put pressure on the Chelsea goal.

cson

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Posting this now as the odds will surely drop tomorrow:

Lyon -1 (vs Bastia) @ 2.10
Lyon @ 1.42 - I'd be really shocked if this didn't come in


- We (I'm a Bastia fan!) are missing our best defender Squillaci and our left back Palmieri
- We are terrible away from home, our coach only knows how to play attacking football which doesn't suit us away from home... our coach said this would be the most difficult away game of the season
- Lyon are much stronger than people think, they were unlucky with injuries and they played lots of games due to the EL and the domestic cups, they're one of the best teams atm
- Lyon have to win as their goal is to get a European spot, we, on the other hand, are officially safe from relegation

Squillaci is your best defender :eek:

Lasagna Diarra

cson wrote: »

Squillaci is your best defender :eek:

Hantz (our coach) > Wenger

tbf the pace is Ligue 1 is not the same as in the Premier League so this league suits him better.

AidySevenfold

Hellas Verona at home to Catania? 11/10 against a team who have won 0 away from home all year. Verona have won 9 at home this season.

Hollister11

AidySevenfold wrote: »

Hellas Verona at home to Catania? 11/10 against a team who have won 0 away from home all year. Verona have won 9 at home this season.

I put Verona to win either half I'm an Acca 4/7

inforfun

Bit about the Eredivisie today.

All matches played at the same time, which is always the case the last 2 league rounds.

Despite losing 5-1 to PEC Zwolle in the cup final last week, cant unfortunately see no other result than Ajax sealing the title today.

They are away to Heracles and @1.61 for the win is pretty good.
Reason:
Heracles will be without 7 players, 4 due to suspension and 3 injuries.
Suspended: Ben Rienstra, Bryan Linssen, Thomas Bruns, Bart Schenkeveld
All 4 rather important. Defenders and the topscorer.
Injured: Jeroen Veldmate (lies), Oussama Tannane (enkel) en Dario Vujicevic
Less important than the suspended ones but they would have played for sure.

There is a danger though..... A draw would suit both just fine. Ajax will pick up the title and Heracles will secure another season of eredivisie with a draw too seeing that NAC and RKC play each other and whatever the outcome there, Heracles will be safe with a point.

I am not too naive to say there is not gentlemen agreements in Holland, just look at Heerenveen - Feyenoord 2 seasons ago where it suited both clubs just fine if Feyenoord won that match. And they did score the winner a few minutes before the final whistle.

Other matches.
Feyenoord on a great run with 6 wins in a row, conceding only 1 goal.
At home to Cambuur who played themselves safe last week so have nothing to go for. A Feyenoord win will seal 2nd spot, CL qualifiers.
Also last match at home for manager Koeman who have done a fantastic job i nthe 3 years he was manager at Feyenoord so i am sure the players and the fans will want to give them a match to remember.
More than likely it will also be Pelle's last home match as i dont see him back after the summer. Time for him to cash in on 2 great seasons.

Odds on goals for him are in the Messi/Ronaldo area though. Having said that... Pelle hat trick @12 on Unibet/888.
Manu, on loan from Feyenoord will play for Cambuur and he is decent odds to score. Wouldnt be the first one to score against Feyenoord while on loan

If there isnt an early goal, you could go for Feyenoord HT/FT or just HT as Feyenoord has won that bet 10x when playing at home.

Zwolle - PSV:
Best to avoid. Zwolle has obviously been celebrating and PSV is just a mess. 5th till 8th spot will have a play off for a Europa league ticket. PSV will want to avoid that by winning today and hoping Vitesse will slip up.

Vitesse - GA Eagles:
Eagles are more or less safe, also because of NAC - RKC. Vitesse is currently in 4th, which is EL placement.
Vitesse no win in 5 but should win this today. Might have some goals this one.

Den Haag - AZ Alkmaar:
Den Haag did very well under their new coach Fraser, only 1 loss, away to Ajax.
AZ will finish 7th or 8th. Only next week we ll know which is the better position to finish. (AZ - at home to Feyenoord next week)
Draw on the boards here i feel.

Roda - Groningen:
After Feyenoord, Groningen are the in form team at the moment with 4 wins in their last 5, only loss to Feyenoord.
Roda trying desperately to avoid direct relegation. Nothing but a win is needed.
Groningen can use the win, not 100% needed. In a fight with AZ for 7th/8th.
Groningen DC @1.61 is nice.

Heerenveen - Utrecht:
Nothing match really. Heerenveen could reach 4th, direct el qualification but has to hope both Vitesse and PSV spill enough points in the last 2 matches.
Obvious message is they have to win.
I have taken Mulenga of Utrecht to score. Been injured most of the season but bagged a couple of goals in the last couple of matches and with Heerenveen's defence far from solid, he should have a reasonable chance to add another.

NEC - Twente:
NEC in a struggle against direct relegation. 1 message really, win.
Twente needs point to seal 3rd spot but if they want any chance on 2nd they need a win too and hope feyenoord will not win 1 of the 2 remaining matches.

On Tadic any time here.

NAC - RKC
Local derby, both needing the points.
Ref Nijhuis with 6 red cards in his last 6 matches (2 had 2 redcards, so 4 matches with at least 1 red)
Guess what i ll be on.

AidySevenfold

AidySevenfold wrote: »

Hellas Verona at home to Catania? 11/10 against a team who have won 0 away from home all year. Verona have won 9 at home this season.

Handy enough 4-0 win for Verona.

Trimm Trabb

Trimm Trabb wrote: »

A bet I like for tomorrow is for there to be a corner before the 9th min in Liverpool v Chelsea at 5/6 (B365).

I have been backing this successfully in Liverpool's big home games recently, expect Liverpool to come out of the traps quickly and put pressure on the Chelsea goal.

This came in anyway.

Had backed Chelsea 1-0 at 18/1 so second goal was a disappointment.

inforfun

inforfun wrote: »

Bit about the Eredivisie today.

All matches played at the same time, which is always the case the last 2 league rounds.

Despite losing 5-1 to PEC Zwolle in the cup final last week, cant unfortunately see no other result than Ajax sealing the title today.

They are away to Heracles and @1.61 for the win is pretty good.
Reason:
Heracles will be without 7 players, 4 due to suspension and 3 injuries.
Suspended: Ben Rienstra, Bryan Linssen, Thomas Bruns, Bart Schenkeveld
All 4 rather important. Defenders and the topscorer.
Injured: Jeroen Veldmate (lies), Oussama Tannane (enkel) en Dario Vujicevic
Less important than the suspended ones but they would have played for sure.

There is a danger though..... A draw would suit both just fine. Ajax will pick up the title and Heracles will secure another season of eredivisie with a draw too seeing that NAC and RKC play each other and whatever the outcome there, Heracles will be safe with a point.

I am not too naive to say there is not gentlemen agreements in Holland, just look at Heerenveen - Feyenoord 2 seasons ago where it suited both clubs just fine if Feyenoord won that match. And they did score the winner a few minutes before the final whistle.

Other matches.
Feyenoord on a great run with 6 wins in a row, conceding only 1 goal.
At home to Cambuur who played themselves safe last week so have nothing to go for. A Feyenoord win will seal 2nd spot, CL qualifiers.
Also last match at home for manager Koeman who have done a fantastic job i nthe 3 years he was manager at Feyenoord so i am sure the players and the fans will want to give them a match to remember.
More than likely it will also be Pelle's last home match as i dont see him back after the summer. Time for him to cash in on 2 great seasons.

Odds on goals for him are in the Messi/Ronaldo area though. Having said that... Pelle hat trick @12 on Unibet/888.
Manu, on loan from Feyenoord will play for Cambuur and he is decent odds to score. Wouldnt be the first one to score against Feyenoord while on loan

If there isnt an early goal, you could go for Feyenoord HT/FT or just HT as Feyenoord has won that bet 10x when playing at home.

Zwolle - PSV:
Best to avoid. Zwolle has obviously been celebrating and PSV is just a mess. 5th till 8th spot will have a play off for a Europa league ticket. PSV will want to avoid that by winning today and hoping Vitesse will slip up.

Vitesse - GA Eagles:
Eagles are more or less safe, also because of NAC - RKC. Vitesse is currently in 4th, which is EL placement.
Vitesse no win in 5 but should win this today. Might have some goals this one.

Den Haag - AZ Alkmaar:
Den Haag did very well under their new coach Fraser, only 1 loss, away to Ajax.
AZ will finish 7th or 8th. Only next week we ll know which is the better position to finish. (AZ - at home to Feyenoord next week)
Draw on the boards here i feel.

Roda - Groningen:
After Feyenoord, Groningen are the in form team at the moment with 4 wins in their last 5, only loss to Feyenoord.
Roda trying desperately to avoid direct relegation. Nothing but a win is needed.
Groningen can use the win, not 100% needed. In a fight with AZ for 7th/8th.
Groningen DC @1.61 is nice.

Heerenveen - Utrecht:
Nothing match really. Heerenveen could reach 4th, direct el qualification but has to hope both Vitesse and PSV spill enough points in the last 2 matches.
Obvious message is they have to win.
I have taken Mulenga of Utrecht to score. Been injured most of the season but bagged a couple of goals in the last couple of matches and with Heerenveen's defence far from solid, he should have a reasonable chance to add another.

NEC - Twente:
NEC in a struggle against direct relegation. 1 message really, win.
Twente needs point to seal 3rd spot but if they want any chance on 2nd they need a win too and hope feyenoord will not win 1 of the 2 remaining matches.

On Tadic any time here.

NAC - RKC
Local derby, both needing the points.
Ref Nijhuis with 6 red cards in his last 6 matches (2 had 2 redcards, so 4 matches with at least 1 red)
Guess what i ll be on.

Draw at Heracles - Ajax, what a surprise
Tadic scored
Mulenga scored
Groningen won
Vitesse - Ga Eagles 2-2 .. some goals indeed.
Feyenoord 5-1, Pelle just the one goal

Keep an eye on next week, last match of the season.

All 18 teams did score today and i can see that happen next week again.

Still some decisions to be made though.

cson

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Posting this now as the odds will surely drop tomorrow:

Lyon -1 (vs Bastia) @ 2.10
Lyon @ 1.42 - I'd be really shocked if this didn't come in


- We (I'm a Bastia fan!) are missing our best defender Squillaci and our left back Palmieri
- We are terrible away from home, our coach only knows how to play attacking football which doesn't suit us away from home... our coach said this would be the most difficult away game of the season
- Lyon are much stronger than people think, they were unlucky with injuries and they played lots of games due to the EL and the domestic cups, they're one of the best teams atm
- Lyon have to win as their goal is to get a European spot, we, on the other hand, are officially safe from relegation

Top class.

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Posting this now as the odds will surely drop tomorrow:

Lyon -1 (vs Bastia) @ 2.10
Lyon @ 1.42 - I'd be really shocked if this didn't come in


- We (I'm a Bastia fan!) are missing our best defender Squillaci and our left back Palmieri
- We are terrible away from home, our coach only knows how to play attacking football which doesn't suit us away from home... our coach said this would be the most difficult away game of the season
- Lyon are much stronger than people think, they were unlucky with injuries and they played lots of games due to the EL and the domestic cups, they're one of the best teams atm
- Lyon have to win as their goal is to get a European spot, we, on the other hand, are officially safe from relegation

Lyon won 4-1 (... or rather !)

cson

This is going to go either way I think (they'll either smash Villareal or minds will be elsewhere and they'll draw/lose) but I'm nailing my colours to the Barcelona mast night and expect that they'll put a few goals on Villareal in Vilanova's memory.

Barcelona (-1) @ 6/5 [Powers]

Vurnon San Benito

Trimm Trabb wrote: »

A bet I like for tomorrow is for there to be a corner before the 9th min in Liverpool v Chelsea at 5/6 (B365).

I have been backing this successfully in Liverpool's big home games recently, expect Liverpool to come out of the traps quickly and put pressure on the Chelsea goal.

Fantastic bet sir, well done.

djhaxman

inforfun wrote: »

Draw at Heracles - Ajax, what a surprise

Wish I'd read your preview before doing the bet.

Colonialboy

Interesting stat .. one to keep

Lukas Podolski, with 19 goals and 11 assists in the Premier League has the third best mins per goal involvement in the competition's history (97 mins), behind Thierry Henry and Sergio Aguero.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Anyone got the odds on Munich v Real for the 90 minutes? I am presuming its something like 4/7, 5/2, 3/1 ? I left the phone at home today and cant get access to the online sites! Damn firewalls!

inforfun

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

Anyone got the odds on Munich v Real for the 90 minutes? I am presuming its something like 4/7, 5/2, 3/1 ? I left the phone at home today and cant get access to the online sites! Damn firewalls!

http://www.flashscores.co.uk/match/nFPwj9HK/#odds-comparison;1x2-odds;full-time

Shanotheslayer

Munich 8/11. Draw 3/1. Real 7/2. On Powers mate.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

thanks lads its much appreciated!

Shanotheslayer

Over 3.5 in Arsenal V Newcastle 6/5. What we reckon? Usually provides lots of goals, also Arsenal will come out storming as a win is almost a guarentee at 4th. Remy potentially back as well(I think) usually has a goal in him also. last 2 games between these sides have ended Under 1.5 but just can't see that happening now.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Over 3.5 in Arsenal V Newcastle 6/5. What we reckon? Usually provides lots of goals, also Arsenal will come out storming as a win is almost a guarentee at 4th. Remy potentially back as well(I think) usually has a goal in him also.

Just depends on if Newcastle show up defensively they have been truly abysmal the last few weeks but were better at stoke and against Swansea. Arsenal though look like they have goals in them since the return of Ramsey!

TheHannibal

Angers v Caen BTTS @1.75

-BTTS has landed in 4 out of their 5 last meetings
-Both sides have seen BTTS land in 5 of their last 6 Home/Away games

Shanotheslayer

TheHannibal wrote: »

Angers v Caen BTTS @1.75

-BTTS has landed in 4 out of their 5 last meetings
-Both sides have seen BTTS land in 5 of their last 6 Home/Away games

On this. Also on A goal in both halfs 4/6 Doubling a goal in both halfs with Arsenal game

Lasagna Diarra

The odds on Caen keep dropping I don't understand why... maybe it's because Caen have won their last 3 games... Angers DC is now @ 1.60

FWIW, these two teams met last year at almost the exact same time, with both teams also fighting for promotion and the game finished 1-1.
Angers's next game is away to Lens, it'll be very hard to get even a point there, while Caen will most likely receive 3 points as Nimes didn't show up for the game last month.

Colonialboy

Bayern (-4) Corners 4/5 .... they won the first leg 13-3 corners .
An early Bayern goal might mess this up, but an early Real goal will help.
-5 6/5
-6 7/4 are tempting me also

SantryRed

Arsenal are @ 2.10 on the -2 Asian Handicap tonight.

Newcastle have been nothing short of woeful since the Pardew incident.

Before two narrow 1 goal losses, they played Everton, United and Southampton, losing 3-0, 4-0 and 4-0 in those games.

A 2 goal win is the least I'm expecting from Arsenal tonight.

tinodz

Last 8 Newcastle First Half (Playing Away) ScoreLine

1 - 0 (v Stoke) LOSS (FT 1-0)
1 - 0 (v Southampton) LOSS (FT (4-0)
0 - 0 (v Fulham) DRAW (FT 1-0)
0 - 2 (v Hull) WIN (FT 1-4)
2 - 0 (v Chelsea) LOSS (FT 3-0)
0 - 0 (v Norwich) DRAW (FT 0-0)
1 - 2 (v Hammers) WIN (FT (1-3)
0 - 0 (v Albion) DRAW (FT 1-0)

First Half Results: 3 Losses, 3 Draws, 2 Wins
First Half Goals in Game 4 , Second Half Goals 3

Last 8 Arsenal First Half (Playing Home) Score Line

1 - 1 (v Hammers) DRAW (FT 3-1)
0 - 1 (v M City) LOSS (FT 1-1)
0 - 1 (v Swansea) LOSS (FT 2-2)
3 - 0 (Sunderland) WIN (FT 4-1)
0 - 0 (v Man U) DRAW (GT 0-0)
0 - 0 (v Crystal Palace) DRAW (FT 2-0)
0 - 0 (v Fulham) DRAW (FT 2-0)
0 - 0 (v Cardiff) DRAW (FT 2-0)

First Half: 2 Losses, 5 Draws, 1 Wins
First Half Goals in Game 4 , Second Half Goals 12

This what I am going with (level stake on both)...

HT Result Draw @ 3.00 (Bet Victor)
Arsenal (-1) Second Half @ 2.62 (Coral)

Smithwicks Man

Going for Ramsey anytime assist at 9/4

Leads Arsenal's assist stats according to ESPN, with 8 assists in 18 PL starts. Arsenal are at home to Newcastle who they should beat comfortably and Ramsey was heavily involved in their attacking play against Hull last week.

Also backing him for 1st assist at 15/2 with a small stake

Both bets with Boylesports.

AH92

Going for under 1.5 first half goals in arsenal game @ 5/6. Feel newcastle will park the bus! BOL guys.
HAppy days at least being an arsenal fan!

TheHannibal

TheHannibal wrote: »

Angers v Caen BTTS @1.75

-BTTS has landed in 4 out of their 5 last meetings
-Both sides have seen BTTS land in 5 of their last 6 Home/Away games

2-1 :-D

tinodz

tinodz wrote: »

Last 8 Newcastle First Half (Playing Away) ScoreLine

1 - 0 (v Stoke) LOSS (FT 1-0)
1 - 0 (v Southampton) LOSS (FT (4-0)
0 - 0 (v Fulham) DRAW (FT 1-0)
0 - 2 (v Hull) WIN (FT 1-4)
2 - 0 (v Chelsea) LOSS (FT 3-0)
0 - 0 (v Norwich) DRAW (FT 0-0)
1 - 2 (v Hammers) WIN (FT (1-3)
0 - 0 (v Albion) DRAW (FT 1-0)

First Half Results: 3 Losses, 3 Draws, 2 Wins
First Half Goals in Game 4 , Second Half Goals 3

Last 8 Arsenal First Half (Playing Home) Score Line

1 - 1 (v Hammers) DRAW (FT 3-1)
0 - 1 (v M City) LOSS (FT 1-1)
0 - 1 (v Swansea) LOSS (FT 2-2)
3 - 0 (Sunderland) WIN (FT 4-1)
0 - 0 (v Man U) DRAW (GT 0-0)
0 - 0 (v Crystal Palace) DRAW (FT 2-0)
0 - 0 (v Fulham) DRAW (FT 2-0)
0 - 0 (v Cardiff) DRAW (FT 2-0)

First Half: 2 Losses, 5 Draws, 1 Wins
First Half Goals in Game 4 , Second Half Goals 12

This what I am going with (level stake on both)...

HT Result Draw @ 3.00 (Bet Victor)
Arsenal (-1) Second Half @ 2.62 (Coral)

No luck today. :mad:

Damn corrupt league :P

TheHannibal

TheHannibal wrote: »

Angers v Caen BTTS @1.75

-BTTS has landed in 4 out of their 5 last meetings
-Both sides have seen BTTS land in 5 of their last 6 Home/Away games

2-1 :-D

Smithwicks Man

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

Going for Ramsey anytime assist at 9/4

Leads Arsenal's assist stats according to ESPN, with 8 assists in 18 PL starts. Arsenal are at home to Newcastle who they should beat comfortably and Ramsey was heavily involved in their attacking play against Hull last week.

Also backing him for 1st assist at 15/2 with a small stake

Both bets with Boylesports.

3-0 but no assists. Decent price to look out for though.

Shanotheslayer

Shanghai V Guangzhou. Shanghai home form is a mixed bunch. 1W 1D 1L. Guang away form 2W 1D 1L. The last 5 meetings Shanghai are unbeaten at home.(Going back to 08) W4 D1. 5/6 Shanghai Double Chance. 3/5 have been Under 2.5 8/11. BTTS has hit in 3/5 last H2H. Altho Shangahi have kept 2 clean sheets in last 2 at home. I will be backing Shanghai DC at 5/6 and Under 2.5 at 8/11 myself. Last night I hit the 3/3 in a bet hopefully tonight is 2/2! Also jumped on HT draw FT Shangahi 15/2. HT draw FT draw 7/2

Soby

Corner handicap tomorrow is -4 for Bayern. We know what they are like for corners . It was 15-3 in there favour in the first leg . Now they are at home and need to Win. Expect more of the same . I'm on -5,-6,-7 .

grattanspuds

I'm conflicted regarding the cards market on bayern/Madrid tonight... On the one hand, bayern rarely get cards but on the other, the ref Mr Proenca loves throwing them around. Bayern have to go chasing the game so may be a bit more physical than normal, and may get caught on the counter a few times which could result in cards. Bayern over 20 pts is therefore tempting at 5/4. But then again if bayern have all the ball, they won't pick up cards, in which case the total points under 40 at 4/1 might be worth a look. Tough to call