The Football Tips Thread V

Dio On The Doubles

Dio On The Doubles wrote: »

'Expected' lineups for the Ha Noi T&T game starting soon at 11.30 were posted to the official Ha Noi facebook page 7 hours ago and it seems to be a very strong team.



Samson is the main 14 goal striker and van Quyet and Hector also chip in with a good few goals. Main defender is Gallagher. Seems to be a very strong team they are expecting to field.


The reverse of this fixture took place only very recently and ended 3-4 to Ha Noi. Odds for +3.5 goals are 1.6 so I will be waiting in play to hopefully have them rise.

Gonna take a stab at BTTS in both halves too if the market is there at small stakes.

The link to the H2H

http://ie.soccerway.com/matches/2014/05/04/vietnam/super-league/t--t-ha-noi/an-giang/1631100/head2head/

4-1 FT

Shanotheslayer

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Right folks, for once doing a write up from a laptop so it should be easier to read

The Strongest V Universitario 9:00PM
3rd V 2nd

The Strongest home form has been incredible all season 7W 2D 0L
Universitario away form is a mixed bunch 2W 3D 3D

I fancy The Strongest to win tonight a win pushes them up into 2nd 8/15 straight win.

Little nibble on The Strongest -1 at 17/10

Uni, seem to concede an awful lot away from home. Conceding 11 in 5 games.

Over 2.5 is 4/6
Over 3.5 is 7/4

Will be jumping on all these.

Postponed.Will my stakes be returned? Or carry over to next day?

Dio On The Doubles

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Postponed.Will my stakes be returned? Or carry over to next day?

Most bookies give refund if the match is not played within 24 hours Shano. You might get it sooner than that tho depending.

PuntersAdvice

English Premier League: Crystal Palace v Liverpool


-Liverpool are equal on points with Man City and have to make up a 9 goal difference to win the league.
-Liverpool score an average of 2.5 goals away from home in the league.
-Crystal Palace have scored in 5 of their last 6 games in the league.


Bet: Liverpool To Win & Over 2.5 Goals
Bookmaker: Skybet
Odds: 1.73

Lineups:
Liverpool - Mignolet, Johnson, Flanagan, Skrtel, Sakho, Gerrard, Allen, Lucas, Sterling, Sturridge, Suarez
Crystal Palace - Speroni, Mariappa, Dann, Delaney, Ward, Dikgacoi, Jedinak, Ledley, Bolasie, Puncheon, Chamakh

francie81

Lasagna Diarra I was eyeing up the Monaco/Guingamp match Wednesday any thoughts on it, with 2nd guaranteed surely Monaco will still seek revenge for the recent defeat in the cup but Guingamp still battling relegation also noticed Monaco's match price drifting?

Cheers

Shanotheslayer

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Right folks, for once doing a write up from a laptop so it should be easier to read

The Strongest V Universitario 9:00PM
3rd V 2nd

The Strongest home form has been incredible all season 7W 2D 0L
Universitario away form is a mixed bunch 2W 3D 3D

I fancy The Strongest to win tonight a win pushes them up into 2nd 8/15 straight win.

Little nibble on The Strongest -1 at 17/10

Uni, seem to concede an awful lot away from home. Conceding 11 in 5 games.

Over 2.5 is 4/6
Over 3.5 is 7/4

Will be jumping on all these.

KO at 1am (15mins) now. C'mon Strongest:D

Shanotheslayer

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Right folks, for once doing a write up from a laptop so it should be easier to read

The Strongest V Universitario 9:00PM
3rd V 2nd

The Strongest home form has been incredible all season 7W 2D 0L
Universitario away form is a mixed bunch 2W 3D 3D

I fancy The Strongest to win tonight a win pushes them up into 2nd 8/15 straight win.

Little nibble on The Strongest -1 at 17/10

Uni, seem to concede an awful lot away from home. Conceding 11 in 5 games.

Over 2.5 is 4/6
Over 3.5 is 7/4

Will be jumping on all these.

Finished 2-2! The Overs hit so 2/4:)

Lasagna Diarra

francie81 wrote: »

Lasagna Diarra I was eyeing up the Monaco/Guingamp match Wednesday any thoughts on it, with 2nd guaranteed surely Monaco will still seek revenge for the recent defeat in the cup but Guingamp still battling relegation also noticed Monaco's match price drifting?

Cheers

Tough game to call, Guingamp will most likely park the bus as they badly need points and they're a defensive-minded team. Not sure about who's gonna win but it should be an underish game, Guingamp suffered narrow defeats away to big teams: 1-0 vs Lille, 2-0 vs Lyon and 2-0 vs PSG with PSG scoring both goals after the 91st min.

Oat23

Gamba -1 @ 10/11 vs Tokushima in 30 minutes.

Neither team are very good compared to other J1 teams, but Gamba on paper are much better than Tokushima. They beat them 2-0 and 1-5 last season when both were playing in J2, Gamba winning the league and Tokushima finishing 4th (promotion via Playoffs.). Endo, Futagawa and Usami all playing (the main players) and Usami scored 4 in the 1-5 win over Tokushima last season.

Also putting something on -2 at 12/5.

Shanotheslayer

Oat23 wrote: »

Gamba -1 @ 10/11 vs Tokushima in 30 minutes.

Neither team are very good compared to other J1 teams, but Gamba on paper are much better than Tokushima. They beat them 2-0 and 1-5 last season when both were playing in J2, Gamba winning the league and Tokushima finishing 4th (promotion via Playoffs.). Endo, Futagawa and Usami all playing (the main players) and Usami scored 4 in the 1-5 win over Tokushima last season.

Also putting something on -2 at 12/5.

Was looking at this myself and was wondering why Osaka's odds were so poor because they're both Sh1te:p

Dio On The Doubles

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Was looking at this myself and was wondering why Osaka's odds were so poor because they're both Sh1te:p

Odds are too tight on em aright but Gamba are definitely the better team in the usual run of thing especially at home.

This happened at the end of the Kashiwya Reysol game a week ago..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZzlNP5kOMg

fans threw the Gamba supporters flag at the team. Might either inspire them to hammer Vortis today or send them further down the spiral.

They are two teams on different trajectories at the moment. Gamba started off really well and Vortis were expected to have the worst J1 league record ever with their start. Now Vortis recently came close to getting a draw at home to Niigata and then got their first win against Ventforet Kofu 2 games ago. They lost again last game however only 1-0 .. they used to lose by 4 and 5 now they are an unders team with 1 and 2 goal games by the looks of it.

Confidence is peaking a little in Vortis and both teams will view this as a possible 6 pointer to staying up later.

I'm gonna take a look in play and see if I'm going on something based on rball.

Lasagna Diarra

Istres vs Lens

Very important game for both teams, Istres are fighting for survival while Lens are fighting for the 3rd and last promotion spot along with Nancy and Niort. Lens are in real danger of losing their 3rd place, but I just can't imagine Lens failing to get promoted because of what I wrote last week. Lens could only manage a 0-0 last week but Angers were clearly playing for a 0-0 draw, I can't imagine Istres parking the bus at home. Another thing is Istres have like 100 supporters so the atmosphere will definitely not be hostile for Lens. There's also a revenge factor since Istres were the first team to win in Lens and that's when Lens started having problems winning at home.

Lens @ 2.35

Niort @ 2.25 is worth a shot too, they can still catch Lens and have a good record away from home

Oat23

Oat23 wrote: »

Gamba -1 @ 10/11 vs Tokushima in 30 minutes.

Neither team are very good compared to other J1 teams, but Gamba on paper are much better than Tokushima. They beat them 2-0 and 1-5 last season when both were playing in J2, Gamba winning the league and Tokushima finishing 4th (promotion via Playoffs.). Endo, Futagawa and Usami all playing (the main players) and Usami scored 4 in the 1-5 win over Tokushima last season.

Also putting something on -2 at 12/5.

Shu motherf*ckin' Kurata. I love you. Off the bench for a goal and assist, making it 3-0 in the 92nd min. Great start to the day.



Lost €30 on a panic Draw @ 6/1 bet after Tokushima almost equalised from a corner though

EuropeanSon

Not sure if this is the right place for it, but I think there's a large mispricing going on in the market for Premier League winner next season.

Arsenal are currently 10/1, Liverpool and Utd 5/1 each. This strikes me as odd, particularly the Liverpool Arsenal imbalance. Consider:

Arsenal played 13 more games than Liverpool this season, this will not be the case next year.

Arsenal suffered severe injury blows to their best players throughout the year, Liverpool did not suffer to the same extent.

Arsenal have greater revenue and are more likely to be competitive for top players this summer.

Given that, I think the odds are very likely to shorten on Arsenal, and lengthen on Liverpool, so as an investment which you could probably cash out in October I'd think taking Arsenal and or laying Liverpool would be a decent idea.

Fitzcal

Man utd over 0.5 team bookings @8/15
A lot of players in their last home game which they won't want to lose

Shane St.

Thoughts on Premier League games 2mrw? Expecting a comfortable City win

Fitzcal

Fitzcal wrote: »

Man utd over 0.5 team bookings @8/15
A lot of players in their last home game which they won't want to lose

Nice steady little winner thanks to Fellaini

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Istres vs Lens

Very important game for both teams, Istres are fighting for survival while Lens are fighting for the 3rd and last promotion spot along with Nancy and Niort. Lens are in real danger of losing their 3rd place, but I just can't imagine Lens failing to get promoted because of what I wrote last week. Lens could only manage a 0-0 last week but Angers were clearly playing for a 0-0 draw, I can't imagine Istres parking the bus at home. Another thing is Istres have like 100 supporters so the atmosphere will definitely not be hostile for Lens. There's also a revenge factor since Istres were the first team to win in Lens and that's when Lens started having problems winning at home.

Lens @ 2.35

Niort @ 2.25 is worth a shot too, they can still catch Lens and have a good record away from home

Lens won 6-1!

Shanotheslayer

Bit of late night research. Kawasaki V Seoul. Kawasaki home form is fairly strong in the ACL. Winning 7/9 losing 2. Seouls away from in ACL is winning 2/9 but drawing 5. I reckon Kawasaki will have enough to get a win. 11/10. Under 2.5 hit in 9/10 of Seouls away form. Under 2.5 only in 2/9 Kawasaki. Can't decide between the overs/unders but stats there if anyone fancies it. Might wake up tomorrow and change my mind. Just the Kawasaki win for me atm.

cson

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Lens won 6-1!

What was the -4? :eek:

Oat23

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Bit of late night research. Kawasaki V Seoul. Kawasaki home form is fairly strong in the ACL. Winning 7/9 losing 2. Seouls away from in ACL is winning 2/9 but drawing 5. I reckon Kawasaki will have enough to get a win. 11/10. Under 2.5 hit in 9/10 of Seouls away form. Under 2.5 only in 2/9 Kawasaki. Can't decide between the overs/unders but stats there if anyone fancies it. Might wake up tomorrow and change my mind. Just the Kawasaki win for me atm.

On FC Seoul to not score at 8/5 after seeing the teams. They have had trouble scoring since Damjanovic left and his replacement hasn't got going yet, he isn't even on the bench. Escudero (winger) is the main striker today.

Backed 0-0 at 8/1 as well since their defense is the only thing picking them up points in the league.

Shanotheslayer

Oat23 wrote: »

On FC Seoul to not score at 8/5 after seeing the teams. They have had trouble scoring since Damjanovic left and his replacement hasn't got going yet, he isn't even on the bench. Escudero (winger) is the main striker today.

Backed 0-0 at 8/1 as well since their defense is the only thing picking them up points in the league.

Jumped on Kawasaki win to nil at 6/4

Lasagna Diarra

cson wrote: »

What was the -4? :eek:

34.00, 6-1 was @ 501.00 on PP!

Shanotheslayer

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Jumped on Kawasaki win to nil at 6/4

No luck on either bet. Seoul fought back from the dead to win 3-2

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Interesting game tonight between Valladolid and Real Madrid.

Real Valladolid unbeaten at home in the league since losing to Espanyol in November. Bound to be nerves around the place with Valladolid fighting relegation and Madrid going for the title. A draw interestingly would take Valladolid out of the relegation zone.

I'm going to take Valladolid +2 at 6/5 on the handicaps.

Also going to take 0-0 at halftime. Small stake. I think this will be a tougher fixture for Real Madrid than people anticipate but an early goal for Ronaldo and co could ruin all that :-)

Fitzcal

Couple of card bets for me tonight
Man city over 0.5@4/9
Relatively safe bet for me and comes in more often than not

Over 3.5 cards in the Sunderland game @evens
Small stakes on Sunderland over 1.5 @11/10 and
West brom over 1.5 @4/6
Reckon both sides will want to ensure safety tonight and a good few card merchants in both sides

AH92

Fitzcal wrote: »

Couple of card bets for me tonight
Man city over 0.5@4/9
Relatively safe bet for me and comes in more often than not

Over 3.5 cards in the Sunderland game @evens
Small stakes on Sunderland over 1.5 @11/10 and
West brom over 1.5 @4/6
Reckon both sides will want to ensure safety tonight and a good few card merchants in both sides

Followed you on over .5 city bookings with major lumpage! Had to sweat it out but cheers mister!

Shanotheslayer

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

Interesting game tonight between Valladolid and Real Madrid.

Real Valladolid unbeaten at home in the league since losing to Espanyol in November. Bound to be nerves around the place with Valladolid fighting relegation and Madrid going for the title. A draw interestingly would take Valladolid out of the relegation zone.

I'm going to take Valladolid +2 at 6/5 on the handicaps.

Also going to take 0-0 at halftime. Small stake. I think this will be a tougher fixture for Real Madrid than people anticipate but an early goal for Ronaldo and co could ruin all that :-)

Great bet sir, had a small stake on. Thank you:)

KevIRL

Worth loading up on Spurs at 8/15 v Villa at the weekend? Spurs with their last home game of the season up against a Villa team playing their second away game in 4 days and probably pretty deflated to have lost 4-0 after holding out so long tonight. Cant see any other result apart from a handy Spurs win

Fitzcal

AH92 wrote: »

Followed you on over .5 city bookings with major lumpage! Had to sweat it out but cheers mister!

Tell me about it major sweat all good in the end though
Couldn't believe no bookings in Sunderland game considering what was at stake

seanhynes

KevIRL wrote: »

Worth loading up on Spurs at 8/15 v Villa at the weekend? Spurs with their last home game of the season up against a Villa team playing their second away game in 4 days and probably pretty deflated to have lost 4-0 after holding out so long tonight. Cant see any other result apart from a handy Spurs win

I'm sure they'll go above 8/15 Inplay ,takes them a fair while to get going at home

Austria!

KevIRL wrote: »

Worth loading up on Spurs at 8/15 v Villa at the weekend? Spurs with their last home game of the season up against a Villa team playing their second away game in 4 days and probably pretty deflated to have lost 4-0 after holding out so long tonight. Cant see any other result apart from a handy Spurs win

Villa play very counter attacking so away is not a big disadvantage. And Spurs are not reliable. Manager will be gone, players probably don't even want europa, and a few are saving themselves for the world cup. If I was to back any team in that one I'd back Villa.

seanhynes

Austria! wrote: »

Villa play very counter attacking so away is not a big disadvantage. And Spurs are not reliable. Manager will be gone, players probably don't even want europa, and a few are saving themselves for the world cup. If I was to back any team in that one I'd back Villa.

Ya I wouldn't be so sure about spurs they may not want Europa football , Utd either. Very strange sets of games nothing really to play for in any, pool might maybe nick a few early goals to spread the word across to eastlands. Don't see much that stands out

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Hope this is the right place for this;

Just had a look through remaining games this season. Norwich are currently 14th, 7pts clear of relegation but of the below teams WBA and C Palace have a game in hand and Sunderland have 2 games in hand over them.

Last 4 fixtures for Norwich are:

Liverpool (H)
Man United (A)
Chelsea (A)
Arsenal (H)

Very conceivable that they'll get no points from those 4 games. The 3 before that are easier but 2 of the 3 are away from home. Norwich haven't traveled well this year:

Away: Played 15, Won 2, Drawn 2, Lost 11, Goals For 11, Goals Against 36

So I wouldn't be confident in them winning both those away games (Swansea and Fulham) as they've only won 2 away all season to now. Their remaining home game is v West Brom who are also pretty bad away from home so I can see a result there.

But in the 7 matches I wouldn't be surprised if they only returned 7 or 8 points, which would leave them on 39 or 40pts, probably very very close to relegation. And if I'm harsh on them, I think they'll only actually get 5 points.

Ladbrokes have them at 5/1 to go down, PP have them at 4/1. Definite value I say.

This has effectively come in, Norwich 3pts from safety and need to beat Arsenal by about 17 goals or something on Sunday!

8-10 wrote: »

Sunderland with a game in hand and home fixtures against West Brom, Swansea and Cardiff to go look likely to get some points.

Sunderland @ 5/6 (PP) are a good bet with the extra game and the 3 home games to go (away game is United). Well worth a flutter at that price.

Sunderland stayed up @ 5/6 with a game in hand

Really weird not having any relegation teams battling on final day. Pretty much nobody has anything to play for

mike65

8-10 wrote: »

Really weird not having any relegation teams battling on final day. Pretty much nobody has anything to play for

:mad:


























:pac:

Dio On The Doubles

For the Tampines Rovers v Warriors match kicking off now BTTS could be a good bet in play if the odds can rise near evens.

Warriors missing two of their main defenders and Tampines lost their coach about a week ago with a caretaker manager in charge. Can see both conceding in this.

Dio On The Doubles

Dio On The Doubles wrote: »

For the Tampines Rovers v Warriors match kicking off now BTTS could be a good bet in play if the odds can rise near evens.

Warriors missing two of their main defenders and Tampines lost their coach about a week ago with a caretaker manager in charge. Can see both conceding in this.

3-3

In the normal run of things I'd be looking at pregame overs in this situation however Tampines only managed 1-1 against a woeful team last game out with the caretaker manager, so was initially only looking at BTTS.

Got suckered in with Warriors +3.5 team goals afer their big start but then took BTTS in the second half 13/8 to break out with over 30 in profit overall. Not too bad.

Usual screenshot for aftertiming.



Hope the info was helpful to some.

edit: BTTS didn't get near evens before the first goal.

Shane St.

Anyone followed the Championship this year?
can't say I have but I still wanna back a winner. Also any thoughts on the 2 first leg games?

Avfctom

Shane St. wrote: »

Anyone followed the Championship this year?
can't say I have but I still wanna back a winner. Also any thoughts on the 2 first leg games?

Fancy a draw tonight and Wigan to take the advantage tomorrow qpr poor on the road

mailburner

Avfctom wrote: »

Wigan to take the advantage tomorrow qpr poor on the road

With you on that

don't fancy qpr at all and wigan have been there and
performed well on the big occasions
Think qpr have a team of great players that will fail when
expectations are high so would rather have wigan anyday
might be a lot of tosh but the few times ive seen them play I havent
been impressed none moreso than away to forest where team
spirit and determination won that game for forest

evens to qualify looks good to me based on their performances in
games that really mattered v city/arse etc
If any team will raise their game here it'll surely be wigan imo


Even winning the play offs might be worth a bet at 11/4 but I havent
seen a lot of derby to know for sure
I'd like to do something with playoffs from other leagues but havent
been following them to know

mike65

Shane St. wrote: »

Anyone followed the Championship this year?
can't say I have but I still wanna back a winner. Also any thoughts on the 2 first leg games?

Derby have all the big guns playing and a decent extra goal scoring option on the bench.


http://www.flashscore.com/match/dpshcJh2/#lineups;1

Lasagna Diarra

BATE Borisov -1 @ 1.67

First game for BATE in their brand new stadium. I've seen a couple of BATE games this season and watched all the highlights from their games and they're really above all the other teams in the league, they create a ton of chances in every game, the only problem is their finishing is awful, it's like their players don't practice shooting at all in training :pac: but since they create so many chances they eventually find a way to score.

Highlights from their last home game, they're always very entertaining to watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxCGaVn14Y0

bradlente

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Highlights from their last home game, they're always very entertaining to watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxCGaVn14Y0

I like how The Final Countdown plays when they score and they rotate between the intro and solo for each goal.:pac:

Oat23

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

the only problem is their finishing is awful, it's like their players don't practice shooting at all in training :pac: but since they create so many chances they eventually find a way to score.

The Dortmund of Belarus then.

bradlente

Not many prices up for it yet,Bate have been banging them in but the other team have a decent record of goals conceded.4/6,they've only scored 4/6 as well,looks like they'll park the proverbial bus anyway,or whatever it may be that Belarusians use for public transport.

Lasagna Diarra

bradlente wrote: »

Not many prices up for it yet,Bate have been banging them in but the other team have a decent record of goals conceded.4/6,they've only scored 4/6 as well,looks like they'll park the proverbial bus anyway,or whatever it may be that Belarusians use for public transport.

I wouldn't read too much into that, there's a big gap between BATE and the other teams, BATE are the only team that do well in Europe, the others usually get knocked out by Moldovan or Croatian teams. I would be surprised if BATE failed to win (big) for the inauguaration of their new stadium. They usually handle pressure well in important games.

Fakman87

Benfica 2.10 double chance away to Porto looks good value.

bradlente

Fakman87 wrote: »

Benfica 2.10 double chance away to Porto looks good value.

Don't think so,they have the league wrapped up with The Europa League final on Wednesday and the domestic cup next weekend.Can't see them going hard tomorrow.Porto don't have much to play for either apart from pride after such a crap season.It's not a bad price or anything but without line-ups it could be a little dangerous.

ben.schlomo

Fakman87 wrote: »

Benfica 2.10 double chance away to Porto looks good value.

Meh, its a nothing game for Benfica, theyve already won the league and two weeks ago beat Porto in the Taca da Liga, theyve also got the Europa League and Taca da Portugal finals next week and thats their priority(potential to do a quadruple). The Benfica led media arent really talking about the game and Porto have Quaresma and Alex Sandro back too. Benfica are well capable but just no motivation.

Couple of goalscorers to keep note of in tomorrows Portuguese games would be Federico Dionisi for Olhanense at 21/10, they need to win to guarantee survival, a matched result to Pacos and they get the playoff, hes their main striker and scored in the reverse game with Setubal this season(also about 1500 Olhanense fans making the trip north for this, pretty big deal in crowd terms as Setubal average around 3000 usually). Same game and both Ricardo Horta and Rafa Martins(both Setubal) are great bets for me, Horta is an attacker and priced at 7s, Rafa Martins is the penalty taker and main threat, hes 13/5. Olhanense have a habit of giving away pens. Another one would be David Simao 10s for Arouca at Belenenses, Arouca have nothing to play for but same story last week when they won, Belenenses need to match Olhanense's/Pacos results to guarantee survival(theyre a point ahead of both). Simao is their pen taker and Belenenses have given away one in both their last two games.

None of them are overly likely but all offer value in my eyes, especially Rafa Martins, Simao and Horta are just good prices for lads who have a chance and if Olhanense are gonna score it should be Dionisi, Setubal do have a good home record defensively though.

ben.schlomo

bradlente wrote: »

Don't think so,they have the league wrapped up with The Europa League final on Wednesday and the domestic cup next weekend.Can't see them going hard tomorrow.Porto don't have much to play for either apart from pride after such a crap season.It's not a bad price or anything but without line-ups it could be a little dangerous.

Beat me to it, didnt realise my write up took so long :eek:.