The Football Tips Thread V

hoopyhoopy

ben.schlomo wrote: »

What ive learned in the last week and a half is dont bet on friendlies, it probably wont stop me but if anyone takes anything from these games it should be to not get involved.

Yea think your right , friendlies are generally mug bets, was on South Africa win this morning too lol it looked dodge as hell, they had chance after chance after chance, real sitters and just kept knocking them wide !!! Maybe it's just African friendlies !!! Then again I won a nice lump on Nigeria Scotland Wednesday night

shmeee

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

No bother. Hope it's a nice win for us both!

Yeah it looks that way although the move makes perfect sense really. Milan always go for older players on free transfers and Cole fits that criteria.

Have you much experience with Betway? Just opened an account for this bet and I'm trying to get it fully verified now. Don't want them withholding my money if the bet comes off.

Betway and Bwin both have suspended betting this evening on it.

Collie D

magherakid wrote: »

England v Peru
England Over 7.5 Corners 5/6


Below is England corners in their last 8 home games.


England against Denmark 11
England against Germany 11
England against Chile 11
England against Poland 17
England against Montenegro 14
England against Moldova 9
England against Scotland 8
England against Ireland 9

Followed this. Any update? Out and about and on stats on LiveScore. Or should I **** off to live match thread?

shmeee

Collie D wrote: »

Followed this. Any update? Out and about and on stats on LiveScore. Or should I **** off to live match thread?

Only the one corner for England so far. HT now.

Smithwicks Man

shmeee wrote: »

Betway and Bwin both have suspended betting this evening on it.

Many bookies suspend these markets over night. Still can't find any solid reports about the deal online but something must have caused such a sharp drop in odds.

Pity the market isn't available on Betfair, could have layed it and locked in a nice profit!

shmeee

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

Many bookies suspend these markets over night. Still can't find any solid reports about the deal online but something must have caused such a sharp drop in odds.

Pity the market isn't available on Betfair, could have layed it and locked in a nice profit!

It seems to have been reported in the Italian papers about bookies odds over there especially Paddy powers odds and the big drop. No smoke without fire anyway.

I went straight to betfair and the market is there for Cole but sure only peanuts being traded and and may aswel nothing be happening on it.

Could get a holiday out of this yet at the end of the summer. Haha.

Smithwicks Man

shmeee wrote: »

It seems to have been reported in the Italian papers about bookies odds over there especially Paddy powers odds and the big drop. No smoke without fire anyway.

I went straight to betfair and the market is there for Cole but sure only peanuts being traded and and may aswel nothing be happening on it.

I did the exact same. Odds are trading at 1.01 with 19/1 for the lay or something like that.

shmeee wrote: »

Could get a holiday out of this yet at the end of the summer. Haha.

My thoughts exactly

magherakid

magherakid wrote: »

England v Peru
England Over 7.5 Corners 5/6


Below is England corners in their last 8 home games.


England against Denmark 11
England against Germany 11
England against Chile 11
England against Poland 17
England against Montenegro 14
England against Moldova 9
England against Scotland 8
England against Ireland 9

boom :pac:

Collie D

magherakid wrote: »

boom :pac:

Nice one. Checked on phone with just over twenty minutes to go and say only three corners at that stage. Put it down as a loser until got text from Paddy Power saying it was a winner.

Collie D

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

I did the exact same. Odds are trading at 1.01 with 19/1 for the lay or something like that.



My thoughts exactly

Good luck lads. Have said earlier on this thread or the banter one that I hate these next manager or next team markets but hoping you pulled off a nice gamble.

What's the Italian for

Oh Ashley Cole
He's a ****ing arsehole

ben.schlomo

Dom Dwyer(SKC) and Patrick Mullins(N.E) both 3s in their respective MLS games at midnight, Fagundez(NE) also worth an interest. On Dwyer for two at 22s again too, it will come in again sometime so those odds are worth a small interest.

ben.schlomo

ben.schlomo wrote: »

Dom Dwyer(SKC) and Patrick Mullins(N.E) both 3s in their respective MLS games at midnight, Fagundez(NE) also worth an interest. On Dwyer for two at 22s again too, it will come in again sometime so those odds are worth a small interest.

Puke,puke,puke and puke.

Smithwicks Man

Found a nice wee arb bet for anybody who has money to invest for a year:

Southampton to finish in the Top 10 - 6/5 SkyBet
Southampton to finish outside the Top 10 - 7/5 Betfair

Risk-free investment for either a 20% or a 40% return.

I wouldn't be interested in investing money for so long but it's a much better rate than you'll get in the bank!

Smithwicks Man

Germany vs Cameroon:

Gotze anytime @ 14/5 with Betfair

Starts up top in front of Reus, Ozil and Muller... 11/10 elsewhere so 14/5 is a steal. Price will be gone shortly I'd imagine.


EDIT: No luck here, hit the post in the first half and Germany had a heap of chances

ForeverYoung90

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

Found a nice wee arb bet for anybody who has money to invest for a year:

Southampton to finish in the Top 10 - 6/5 SkyBet
Southampton to finish outside the Top 10 - 7/5 Betfair

Risk-free investment for either a 20% or a 40% return.

I wouldn't be interested in investing money for so long but it's a much better rate than you'll get in the bank!

I dont see the bottom 10 market on betfair?

Jordonvito

Like the look of BTTS in England match tonight. A back 4 of milner , Jones, smailing and Shaw looks dodgy and Both teams have scored in 7'of Ecuador last 9 matches. Evens on PP.

Smithwicks Man

ForeverYoung90 wrote: »

I dont see the bottom 10 market on betfair?

Was listed when I put it up but the whole market seems to be gone off the site.

Keep an eye out here:

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/not-to-finish-top-10

BBoyle88

Lass mate,

What's your verdict on France for the World Cup?

Group winners?

The mood seems to be good again amongst supporters; great atmsophere for the friendlies in Paris and Nice.

Under/Over 6.5 tournament goals?

CriticEyes

Holland, Italy, Argentina and England to win tonight at 2/1 enhanced with pp. I look at this thinking that I'm getting 2/1 on England to win. Can't see the other screwing up. My other bet is England win and btts @ 9/2 enhanced also on pp seems like value.

Hollister11

Today's bets
International Friendlies

Algeria VS Romania
KO 19:30
Algeria Win
Odds 2.45 - Stake 10 points

Research
Algeria have won 4/5 games.
The 4 they won were at home and the defeat was away.
Romania 2/5 games drew 2 lost 1.

Ecuador VS England
KO 20:00
England win
Odds 2.10 - Stake 10 Points

Research
England have won 3 out 5 games against weaker opposition loosing against chile and Germany. Ecuador have only won once in their last 5, so England should comfortably win this.

Double:
Odda 5.14 - Stake 3 points.

Jordonvito

Jordonvito wrote: »

Like the look of BTTS in England match tonight. A back 4 of milner , Jones, smailing and Shaw looks dodgy and Both teams have scored in 7'of Ecuador last 9 matches. Evens on PP.

Doubled this up with over 10 corners cos of the post i seen a few days ago. NICE

ForeverYoung90

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

Found a nice wee arb bet for anybody who has money to invest for a year:

Southampton to finish in the Top 10 - 6/5 SkyBet
Southampton to finish outside the Top 10 - 7/5 Betfair

Risk-free investment for either a 20% or a 40% return.

I wouldn't be interested in investing money for so long but it's a much better rate than you'll get in the bank!

How exactly does this work What stake would you put on both bets?

Anonamoose

I'm also confused with this......

Smithwicks Man

ForeverYoung90 wrote: »

How exactly does this work What stake would you put on both bets?

Anonamoose wrote: »

I'm also confused with this......

Well you just back both of them and no matter what happens you win money?

Now i wouldn't be bothered with it because I don't have the money spare to tie up for a year but say you had €10k in the bank to invest, then you put €5k on both events:

If they finish in the top 10 then you lose one bet but win the other at 6/5 so you get back €11k

If they don't finish in the top 10 then you lose the first bet but you win this one at 7/5 so you get back €12k.

Your investment of €10k returns either a €1k profit or €2k profit.

A 10%/20% return within 9/10 months on a risk-free €10k investment is a great ROI.

(Sorry, in my first post I said 20% or 40% by mistake, it'd actually be 10% or 20%)

yabadabado

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

Well you just back both of them and no matter what happens you win money?

I have started looking into arb bets a bit the last few months and have decided I will start doing some.
Do you do them much ?
I am wondering will bookies start to block you/close account if your at this on a regular basis ? I'm not sure how they could especially as it would be spread over numerous different firms.Is there anything I should look out for in particular?
I wont be starting with huge stakes but will gradually increase if it is going well.

clickerquicklic

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

Well you just back both of them and no matter what happens you win money?

Now i wouldn't be bothered with it because I don't have the money spare to tie up for a year but say you had €10k in the bank to invest, then you put €5k on both events:

If they finish in the top 10 then you lose one bet but win the other at 6/5 so you get back €11k

If they don't finish in the top 10 then you lose the first bet but you win this one at 7/5 so you get back €12k.

Your investment of €10k returns either a €1k profit or €2k profit.

A 10%/20% return within 9/10 months on a risk-free €10k investment is a great ROI.

(Sorry, in my first post I said 20% or 40% by mistake, it'd actually be 10% or 20%)

Sounds simple but unfortunately its not always that simple otherwise other people (like myself) would have taken this bet before it ever makes it to a public forum, computer programmes etc alert people to these arbs.

Lets look at the bet as it is now

Skybet Top 10 finish 6/5 i've checked my account i think i'm on 25% limits there and i'm allowed to win 100 on that bet , max stake 83 (so i think unlimited accounts your probably looking at about 330 max bet )

Betfair 7/5 (2.44 decimal) there is 44 euro there to back. so max you can take is the 44 there (risk free)

So the return you can make for this bet

Take the max available liquidity at betfair 44 at 2.44
Then take whats needed on other side (skybet) to win same 47 at 2.2
Gives a level return of 12.83 for the year

Bateman

yabadabado wrote: »

I am wondering will bookies start to block you/close account if your at this on a regular basis ?

Yes, it's well known that they will do precisely that.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Bateman wrote: »

Yes, it's well known that they will do precisely that.

It really depends on how you do it. If you keep your staking at a reasonably small level you can back arbs for years without getting shut down. Its when you max bet them that you get your account looked at. I personally know a guy who focuses on only betting arbs and turns over a reasonable wage every month tax free. But look its not quite as simple as this and you need pretty sophisticated software to be successful at it.

SteelyDanJalapeno

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

Well you just back both of them and no matter what happens you win money?

Now i wouldn't be bothered with it because I don't have the money spare to tie up for a year but say you had €10k in the bank to invest, then you put €5k on both events:

If they finish in the top 10 then you lose one bet but win the other at 6/5 so you get back €11k

If they don't finish in the top 10 then you lose the first bet but you win this one at 7/5 so you get back €12k.

Your investment of €10k returns either a €1k profit or €2k profit.

A 10%/20% return within 9/10 months on a risk-free €10k investment is a great ROI.

(Sorry, in my first post I said 20% or 40% by mistake, it'd actually be 10% or 20%)

clickerquicklic wrote: »

Sounds simple but unfortunately its not always that simple otherwise other people (like myself) would have taken this bet before it ever makes it to a public forum, computer programmes etc alert people to these arbs.

Lets look at the bet as it is now

Skybet Top 10 finish 6/5 i've checked my account i think i'm on 25% limits there and i'm allowed to win 100 on that bet , max stake 83 (so i think unlimited accounts your probably looking at about 330 max bet )

Betfair 7/5 (2.44 decimal) there is 44 euro there to back. so max you can take is the 44 there (risk free)

So the return you can make for this bet

Take the max available liquidity at betfair 44 at 2.44
Then take whats needed on other side (skybet) to win same 47 at 2.2
Gives a level return of 12.83 for the year

As Clicker has says, sounds easier than it is, Skybet will have poor lays on this, maybe a couple of hundred max.

Have you factored in Betfair's 15% take also?

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

TiltedBrain wrote: »

As Clicker has says, sounds easier than it is, Skybet will have poor lays on this, maybe a couple of hundred max.

Have you factored in Betfair's 15% take also?

Betfairs take is 5% ,unless your on the Premium in which case it will be 20% but for the vast majority it will not be 20%.

SteelyDanJalapeno

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

Betfairs take is 5% ,unless your on the Premium in which case it will be 20% but for the vast majority it will not be 20%.

Yeah, my mistake I meant 5%

Oat23

Costa Rica played well against Japan on Tuesday before conceding two in the last 10 mins to lose 1-3. 15/8 is very appealing against Ireland tonight but I will wait to see the teams.

Two games in 4 days is probably why the bookies have them at 15/8.

Smithwicks Man

yabadabado wrote: »

I have started looking into arb bets a bit the last few months and have decided I will start doing some.
Do you do them much ?
I am wondering will bookies start to block you/close account if your at this on a regular basis ? I'm not sure how they could especially as it would be spread over numerous different firms.Is there anything I should look out for in particular?
I wont be starting with huge stakes but will gradually increase if it is going well.

Rarely do them as I don't have the funds to make it worth my while, just thought I'd throw it up anyway!

Yeah they would definitely pick up on people arbing regularly or maxing out the bets but there's nothing to say you can't arb bet in 2 shops with large stakes. Have done it before in PaddyPower and Boylesports shops and never had an issue but I was only putting on hundreds so I doubt they'd have passed any remarks.

clickerquicklic wrote: »

Sounds simple but unfortunately its not always that simple otherwise other people (like myself) would have taken this bet before it ever makes it to a public forum, computer programmes etc alert people to these arbs.

Lets look at the bet as it is now

Skybet Top 10 finish 6/5 i've checked my account i think i'm on 25% limits there and i'm allowed to win 100 on that bet , max stake 83 (so i think unlimited accounts your probably looking at about 330 max bet )

Betfair 7/5 (2.44 decimal) there is 44 euro there to back. so max you can take is the 44 there (risk free)

So the return you can make for this bet

Take the max available liquidity at betfair 44 at 2.44
Then take whats needed on other side (skybet) to win same 47 at 2.2
Gives a level return of 12.83 for the year

Well if your account is limited the you must be winning

I'm not doing the bet myself but was just pointing it out in case it interested others. Even with the Betfair commission, it is still a decent % return for a risk-free bet.

TiltedBrain wrote: »

As Clicker has says, sounds easier than it is, Skybet will have poor lays on this, maybe a couple of hundred max.

Have you factored in Betfair's 15% take also?

15%?

EDIT - Never mind, saw the error

mike65

Germany: Weidenfeller, Boateng, Mertesacker, Hummels, Höwedes, Lahm, Khedira, Reus, Kroos, Schürrle, Müller

Armenia: Berezovsky, Haroyan, Mkoyan, Arzumanyan, Hayrapetyan, Yedigaryan, Hovsepyan, Manucharyan, Mkhitaryan, Ghazaryan, Movsisyan

FAI Cup

Cork v St Mochtas
http://extratime.ie/fixtures/detail/26699/1/

Pats v Pats (real)
http://extratime.ie/fixtures/detail/132/2017/26697/1/

DominicKid

germany lineup looks very strong!

Oat23

Oat23 wrote: »

Costa Rica played well against Japan on Tuesday before conceding two in the last 10 mins to lose 1-3. 15/8 is very appealing against Ireland tonight but I will wait to see the teams.

Two games in 4 days is probably why the bookies have them at 15/8.

Hope Ireland win now or I'll be so mad at Pats and the opposition keeper who won MOTM :pac:

http://i.imgur.com/BfMX6ZZ.png

Trimm Trabb

Danny Welbeck is 10/11 to start against Italy with Skybet.

He's a favorite of Woy - started in all the warm up games - would be v surprised if he doesn't start,

KingJamsie

Trimm Trabb wrote: »

Danny Welbeck is 10/11 to start against Italy with Skybet.

He's a favorite of Woy - started in all the warm up games - would be v surprised if he doesn't start,

Sterling expected to start so personally I'd have Welbz on bench

Austria!

KingJamsie wrote: »

Sterling expected to start so personally I'd have Welbz on bench

By whom? Welbz is widely expected to start by a lot of journalists.

Bateman

Hodgson's interview after the Honduras game was interesting, far from not knowing his "best XI", he isn't convinced they can play all 3 games without any break. I'd say he'll start his "best team" v Italy and Welbeck will be in it.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Austria! wrote: »

By whom? Welbz is widely expected to start by a lot of journalists.

Yup everything I read suggests Welbeck will start and more or less every supposedly "in the know" journalist has Sterling coming in as an impact sub.

Not impossible that Roy will start both with Rooney and drop Sturridge though if both start more likely he goes with a 4-4-2

hefferboi

Thinking of doing the PP goal scorer special! Any informed advice? Thinking about Suarez but not sure about his injury.

seanhynes

fancy overs in tromso v Sandjford now at 7 4/5,ht overs has come in in the last couple of Tromso home games ,its 1st v 2nd here though they might cancel each other out,but youd have to fancy goals

Shanotheslayer

seanhynes wrote: »

fancy overs in tromso v Sandjford now at 7 4/5,ht overs has come in in the last couple of Tromso home games ,its 1st v 2nd here though they might cancel each other out,but youd have to fancy goals

Went with Over 2.5 evens. HT draw evens.

C_1984

Really fancy DPMM away to Tampine Rovers today 7/4 to win (Large Stake)
DPMM -1 5/1 (Small Stake)

Double:


DPMM
Flora Tallin

6/1

Shanotheslayer

Good spot C_ Tampine havn't won in last 6 at home. On DP win at 13/8 and DC at 8/13

Dio On The Doubles

Rezekne BJSS are on today at 12 in Latvia.

They have been bashing in the goals lately.

http://ie.soccerway.com/matches/2014/06/10/latvia/1-liga/daugava-ii--itika-fs/fk-rzeknebjss/1668033/head2head/

GL +4.0 is 1.725 for them today. They don't' always get put in play so I will most likely pre stake this.

In Singapore there is a total mismatch between Home Utd and the development side Harimau Muda II at 12.30.

Home United team goals +3.5 pays @2.37

Recent results show they are well capable of it. In particular the cup game against Nagacorp. the one worry is the away result to Young Lions who are on a par with Harimau Muda II. No injuries reported for Home for this match.

06/06/14 Brunei DPMM 2-3 Home United
30/5/14 Home United 5-0 Nagacorp FC (RHB Singapore Cup)
22/5/14 Geylang International 1-4 Home United
18/5/14 Home United 2-2 Tampines Rovers
7/5/14 Courts Young Lions 1-1 Home United

May look in play to BTTS in the Tampines v DPMM game. Tampines dominate the H2H and have been grinding out draws for the most part since the new manager arrived. Don't know what to trust for the match result here so am gonna run with BTTS.

BTTS has landed 4/5 of recent H2H but @ 1.57 I'm waiting till in play.

Shanotheslayer

On the Goaline in Lativa game. Also on Over 3.5 in Home United at 1.7

C_1984

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Good spot C_ Tampine havn't won in last 6 at home. On DP win at 13/8 and DC at 8/13

DPMM have the best strikeforce in that league too , especially losing their last game at home 3-2 i can see them bouncing back strong here!

C_1984

DPMM 7/4
Home United -1 8/13