The Football Tips Thread V

Hachiko

would rather bet on chances of a selfie being taken on mars than any outcome on an Italian league.

inforfun

Problem with that serie b is that teams will let a league title go if they have a "debt" to pay. As long as they win promotion.
Thee is so much "scratch my back, i ll scratch yours" going on there.

I can see the @1.4 for draws in the last few matches already appear.

There was also the uproar a while ago whe nthe lazio president came aout and say that teams like Carpi and Frosinone should not promote as they dont draw the crowds to the stadiums.

So Bologna will take one of the promotion places for sure.....

mailburner

inforfun wrote: »

Problem with that serie b is that teams will let a league title go if they have a "debt" to pay. As long as they win promotion.
Thee is so much "scratch my back, i ll scratch yours" going on there.

certainly unusual for any team to have 4 consecutive 0-0 for starters
probably a wish move to cash out on this one

inforfun

Tomorrows Eredivisie match is Willem II - Twente

I am on the Willem II DNB @2

Reason is that Willem II is about 7 places higher in the ranking than i expected them to be, in 10th place. 9 matches to go and 8 points clear of relegation play offs means they ll stay up no problem. Straight relegation is not a worry at all for them.

No win in their last 3 matches might look bad but losing away to Vitesse, AZ and drawing at home against Ajax is probably still 1 point more than they were expecting.

At home they are undefeated since the winter break, only dropping points against Ajax, winning against Utrecht, Heracles and GA Eagles.

Only 2 defeats at home all season, against PSV (unlucky with 2 GK howlers) and PEC Zwolle.

Now Twente....
2 wins 5 defeats and 1 draw since the winter break doesnt look good for a team that wanted to finish in the top 6.
Those 2 wins came in january, their last 6 matches only won tem 1 point, at home against NAC

But there is more behind that collapse.
Earlier this week they were deducted 3 points, dropping them from 8th to 9th due to financial mismanagement.
For years they have been spending money that wasnt there but might be there at 1 point. Well, that money isnt coming and they are paying the price now.

There is no money to maintain the pitch.....
Jong Twente will not compete in the Jupiler league anymore next season.
And Twente Women will be a seperate club from next season on.
Also next season there will have to be a cut in the players salaries budget which will see them working with a budget of 10 million while it is 16 now.
This will have consequences for their squad and ambitions.

So a lot of them know already they will not play for Twente next season as they need to be sold in order to get their big salaries of the pay roll (Castainos, Ziyech, Corona and probably a few others)

Really dont see a Twente win here.

ben.schlomo

inforfun wrote: »

Tomorrows Eredivisie match is Willem II - Twente

I am on the Willem II DNB @2

Reason is that Willem II is about 7 places higher in the ranking than i expected them to be, in 10th place. 9 matches to go and 8 points clear of relegation play offs means they ll stay up no problem. Straight relegation is not a worry at all for them.

No win in their last 3 matches might look bad but losing away to Vitesse, AZ and drawing at home against Ajax is probably still 1 point more than they were expecting.

At home they are undefeated since the winter break, only dropping points against Ajax, winning against Utrecht, Heracles and GA Eagles.

Only 2 defeats at home all season, against PSV (unlucky with 2 GK howlers) and PEC Zwolle.

Now Twente....
2 wins 5 defeats and 1 draw since the winter break doesnt look good for a team that wanted to finish in the top 6.
Those 2 wins came in january, their last 6 matches only won tem 1 point, at home against NAC

But there is more behind that collapse.
Earlier this week they were deducted 3 points, dropping them from 8th to 9th due to financial mismanagement.
For years they have been spending money that wasnt there but might be there at 1 point. Well, that money isnt coming and they are paying the price now.

There is no money to maintain the pitch.....
Jong Twente will not compete in the Jupiler league anymore next season.
And Twente Women will be a seperate club from next season on.
Also next season there will have to be a cut in the players salaries budget which will see them working with a budget of 10 million while it is 16 now.
This will have consequences for their squad and ambitions.

So a lot of them know already they will not play for Twente next season as they need to be sold in order to get their big salaries of the pay roll (Castainos, Ziyech, Corona and probably a few others)

Really dont see a Twente win here.

Great write-up Infor, didnt know about their financials, will be interesting viewing next season then. I'll still be looking at Corona for a goal tomorrow, hes been kind to me in recent weeks.

inforfun

ben.schlomo wrote: »

Great write-up Infor, didnt know about their financials, will be interesting viewing next season then. I'll still be looking at Corona for a goal tomorrow, hes been kind to me in recent weeks.

Got injured during training today, doubtful for tomorrow.

All related to their pitch in the stadium which is in bad shape and is also used as training pitch.

ben.schlomo

inforfun wrote: »

Got injured during training today, doubtful for tomorrow.

All related to their pitch in the stadium which is in bad shape and is also used as training pitch.

Ah okay, i'll wait for teams so and might go back to Haemhouts for Willem, he was going well for a few weeks there and then was injured and just came back last week, got him at a big price against Heracles a few weeks back.

Sgt Pepper 64

Braga v Porto - Kick Off 8.30pm

Second place Porto are away to Fourth place Braga, This is a big game for Porto, Although they play in the Champions League on Tuesday night this game still means a lot. They have the vital away goal in the Champions League which means they won't need their full concentration on Tuesday. Benfica sit First in the league 4 points clear of Porto. After tonight Benfica will have a game in hand so anything other than a win could just about be the title over if Benfica win their game over the weekend. Big players usually step up on big occasions so no reason why Martinez won't step up tonight.

Jackson Martinez:
Scored 17 goals in 23 appearances this season in the league.
Scored 10 goals in 11 appearances away from home this season in the league.
Scored 2 goals in his last 3 appearances in the league against Braga.
Scored 1 goal in his last 2 appearances away to Braga in the league.
Scored 2 goals in his last 2 away games for Porto.
Scored 6 goals in his last 6 away games for Porto.


Jackson Martinez To Score Anytime @ 13/10 - Coral

Main bet of the night, If Porto treat this game as a must win he will score! ^^^^

Scored the first goal in his last away game this season.
Scored the first goal in his last 2 away games this season.
Scored the first goal in 5 of his 11 away games this season.

Jackson Martinez To Score First @ 18/5 - Bet365

Scored 2+ goals on 3 occasions this season.
Scored 2+ goals on 2 of they occasions when playing away from home.
Not scored 2+ goals in a few games which he usually does before netting twice.

Jackson Martinez To Score 2+ Goals @ 6/1 - Bet365

SteelyDanJalapeno

I'm short on words today as I have a party to run too, but quick thoughts and small bets on tonight's games, bear in mind this is week 1 and however good a bet looks the odds have accounted for this.

Dundalk V Longford town - Dundalk -1 asian @ 1.70 with Marathon small

Winners of the premiership at home to winners of the first division, Dundalk will have far too much quality for Longford tonight, this would probably be a large bet most weeks but because of the 1st day fears and the strong wind outside I'm sticking with small for now.

Galway Vs Derry - Both teams to score @ 2.00 various books small

Nice odds for this, Galway have strengthened considerably in the closed period to compete and hopefully stay up this season, they've signed a very promising guy "Garcia" from Lulea Sweden they have plenty goals in them, however they're defense is still a bit shakey, reckon Derry will score.

Also taking Both teams to socre in the televised game St.Pats Vs Shamrock Rovers @ 2.00
Again great odds for teams wil plenty goals in them, not much else to say on this, St.Pats have 7 players suspended so maybe an upset on the cards from Shamrok rovers but I believe BTTS is much safer.

All these 3 in a treble too @ 6.50

inforfun

Heracles - Vitesse > away win @1.8

Worst team since the winter break against one of the best teams since the winter break.
And in my opinion it is not just the results that make Vitesse the best team, alsot the way they play the game. They are just enjoyable to watch. For their supporters it is a matter of enjoy it while you can because next season their might be 11 other people wearing the Vitesse shirts.
If this season they would have an out and out goal scorer the way they had in Bony, they would have been at least 15 points better off at this moment

So since the break Heracles has w1-d2-l5 and Vitesse has w6-l3 (one is the cup). Those 6 Vitesse wins came in the last 6 matches.

Both teams missing 1 regular defender Ter Wierik (H) and Kashia (V).

Last few years these H2H's had lots of goals, dont think it will be raining goals tonight.
Brian Linssen has scored 4 goals in the last 5 times he played Vitesse while I ll put some money on Traore of Vitesse if the odds are nice and he starts (which he usually does)

Here for other injuries/suspensions in Holland

inforfun

Heracles equalises in the 95th minute FFS

Had my stake covered though a few minutes from time.



And this won

inforfun

Feyenoord - NAC > NAC +1.5 AH @2.35

Feyenoord havent lost in the league at home since end of september and NAC have never won in Rotterdam (apart from once in some kind of play off).

That being said i expect a NAC bus being parked (NAC manager said so much) and Feyenoord having trouble breaking that bus down.

Away side on +1.5 would have been a winner in 9 out of 13 Feyenoord home matches.

Feyenoord still without Kazim who, who would have known, was badly missed last week away to Utrecht where Feyenoord hardly created any chance at all.

NAC has no players out of any importance.

No idea who is going to score in this one today, Toornstra or Immers for Feyenoord would be my best guess but odds arent great on them so i let that go most likely.

J de Kamps seems a soldi bet to receive just another card today, has 11 in 21 matches this season. Odds, if any available, will refelct that i suppose.

As a combo filler you might want to take NAC +2 AH @1.55

And Lass might be interested in under 3,5 goals @1.6

inforfun

Well.... didnt expect that. There was a bus indeed.

This is after the match



3-0 (could have been 8)

Immers scored.

magherakid

Palace v QPR
BTTS 10/11

Early kick off game tomorrow, this game looks good for both teams to score, Palace 2 clean sheets in 13 home league games, QPR 1 clean sheet in 13 away league games.

RyanDrive

The second round of fixtures for the MLS start tonight (apart form Orlando and Houston who played yesterday) and last week I had great success betting on under 2.5, with only two matches out of the 10 going over. I watch the MLS and teams are notoriously slow to gel starting out so for the following matches I am betting under 2.5 goals:

Chicago Fire V Vancouver Whitecaps (8/11)
FC Dallas V Sporting Kansas (8/11)
Real Salt Lake V Philadelphia Union (4/5)
New York City FC V NEW England Revolution (8/11)

I decided to leave out the "quality teams" - Galaxy, Seattle Sounders and Toronto FC. Did a Lucky 15 for the four of them myself.

Chrissybhoy

Bolton vs milwall 3pm

Bolton look good value at even money today against a poor Milwall side who have showed noting all season they sacked their manager and along with Blackpool are certain to go down. Bolton at home have been good under Neil Lennon even tho their missing their in form player Clough for the season their calibre of player are better than Milwall.

Bolton evens PP

Lamposts

magherakid wrote: »

Palace v QPR
BTTS 10/11

Early kick off game tomorrow, this game looks good for both teams to score, Palace 2 clean sheets in 13 home league games, QPR 1 clean sheet in 13 away league games.

LONG LIVE THE KING! KING MAGS.

inforfun

Sebastien Haller any time @3.1 today in Cambuur - Utrecht

Scored 7 in 9 matches since joining in the winter.
Started the first few matches on the bench but is the no 1 man now.

Scored only 1 of those 7 away from home though but on the plus, he is on the penalties

Bet is on Unibet btw

P.Walnuts

inforfun wrote: »

Sebastien Haller any time @3.1 today in Cambuur - Utrecht

Scored 7 in 9 matches since joining in the winter.
Started the first few matches on the bench but is the no 1 man now.

Scored only 1 of those 7 away from home though but on the plus, he is on the penalties

Bet is on Unibet btw

Can't pik a winner last few weeks so gonna hop on this one, nice spot

Chrissybhoy

Chrissybhoy wrote: »

Bolton vs milwall 3pm

Bolton look good value at even money today against a poor Milwall side who have showed noting all season they sacked their manager and along with Blackpool are certain to go down. Bolton at home have been good under Neil Lennon even tho their missing their in form player Clough for the season their calibre of player are better than Milwall.

Bolton evens PP

HT Bolton 2-0 up should be bet up

Paully D

Paully D wrote: »

Gus Poyet to be the next Premier League manager to leave post. 10/1, Ladbrokes. That price won't last for too much longer. He's 5's and 6's elsewhere.

Took almost 4 weeks but this bet should be in by Monday morning.

Shanotheslayer

Paully D wrote: »

Took almost 4 weeks but this bet should be in by Monday morning.

And right you were!

Paully D

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

And right you were!

Not nice to be confident about these kind of bets on my own club, but you've got to bet with your head I guess.

Paully D

Dutch TV report that Dick Advocaat has agreed to become new Sunderland manager, is flying over and will take charge of training tomorrow.

Now the main thing is how his role is titled. If it's as caretaker until the end of the season then the bookmakers generally don't pay out so it's a bit of a risky one. The same Dutch TV source has been saying that it's until the end of the season with all re-assessing things at the end of the season.

Anyway, he's currently varying from 1/2 to 1/10, but Betfred currently have him at 8/11. It looks nailed on that he's getting the job now so I'm going to have a few quid on at that price and hope he's not officially appointed in a caretaker capacity.

Dick Advocaat to be next Sunderland manager (8/11, Betfred).

discombobulate

Paully D wrote: »

Dutch TV report that Dick Advocaat has agreed to become new Sunderland manager, is flying over and will take charge of training tomorrow.

Now the main thing is how his role is titled. If it's as caretaker until the end of the season then the bookmakers generally don't pay out so it's a bit of a risky one. The same Dutch TV source has been saying that it's until the end of the season with all re-assessing things at the end of the season.

Anyway, he's currently varying from 1/2 to 1/10, but Betfred currently have him at 8/11. It looks nailed on that he's getting the job now so I'm going to have a few quid on at that price and hope he's not officially appointed in a caretaker capacity.

Dick Advocaat to be next Sunderland manager (8/11, Betfred).

Doesn't seem to be available through clicking through oddschecker or on their site at the moment

francie81

Lads I think Ajax @2/1 (to qualify) v Dnipro on thursday is an absolute steal only 1-0 down from the first leg.

inforfun

francie81 wrote: »

Lads I think Ajax @2/1 (to qualify) v Dnipro on thursday is an absolute steal only 1-0 down from the first leg.

Not advising to go against it but.....

Dnipro in their last 29 away matches in the EL only had 5x a result that would mean Ajax going through.

Their is also this little matter that Dutch teams dont perform well vs teams from Russia and Ukraine.

Not saying it is impossible for Ajax to go through, but a steal it isnt.

Dnipro will miss 2 regular defenders because of suspension.
But they are really dangerous in the counter and if they score once, Ajax will have to score 3x.

francie81

inforfun wrote: »

Not advising to go against it but.....

Dnipro in their last 29 away matches in the EL only had 5x a result that would mean Ajax going through.

Their is also this little matter that Dutch teams dont perform well vs teams from Russia and Ukraine.

Not saying it is impossible for Ajax to go through, but a steal it isnt.

Dnipro will miss 2 regular defenders because of suspension.
But they are really dangerous in the counter and if they score once, Ajax will have to score 3x.

I took the price just to make a wee profit a pittance stake

Shanotheslayer

Think I may have to take the Ajax price to. Might way until tomorrow tho. But 19/20 seems a good price to win considering it could be 2-1 and they wouldn't qualify.

magherakid

Heads up Hibs 11/10 home against Rangers on Sunday looks a good bet, Rangers have drew with the bottom 3 teams.

Hibs have already beat Rangers 3 times in the league this season. I think the price will be shorter come the weekend.

inforfun

Dnipro wihtout:

Manager Miron Markevitsj (ill)

Captain Ruslan Rotan,
Right back Artem Fedetski
Roman Zozoelja (scored the 1-0 last week)
All 3 suspended

Sgt Pepper 64

discombobulate wrote: »

Doesn't seem to be available through clicking through oddschecker or on their site at the moment

did anyone get on this? will they pay up as he is manager till end of season?

fernandohierro

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »

did anyone get on this? will they pay up as he is manager till end of season?

I backed Steve mcclaren myself. Its still pending with paddy power so they might not be paying out on advocaat.

jjll

Ajax now 7/4 to qualify next round anyone think good bet the 5/4 gone now 10/11 to win game

Sgt Pepper 64

Lads early match tomorrow

Sydney FC v Melbourne City FC

Marc Janko has won me much money as anytime or first goal scorer, and Sidney Win, get on it NOW!

Sky Blues striker Marc Janko has scored 12 goals in the last seven matches
Read more at http://www.a-league.com.au/matchcentre/Sydney-FC-v-Melbourne-City-FC/753897#eYD0DoEOEPTFbU7w.99

http://www.a-league.com.au/matchcentre/Sydney-FC-v-Melbourne-City-FC/753897#widget-match-day-tabs

Nabber

Atikson referring for Liv Vs Manu

3 straight red cards in his last 6 games, 1 in FA and 2 in Prem

ManU Vs Livpool, Dec 2014 - 7yellow cards

Paddypower:
Red card in game 7/4
LIV red card 5/1
MANU red card 7/2
Both teams 17/1
Rooney sent off 16/1

Sgt Pepper 64

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »

Lads early match tomorrow

Sydney FC v Melbourne City FC

Marc Janko has won me much money as anytime or first goal scorer, and Sidney Win, get on it NOW!

Sky Blues striker Marc Janko has scored 12 goals in the last seven matches
Read more at http://www.a-league.com.au/matchcentre/Sydney-FC-v-Melbourne-City-FC/753897#eYD0DoEOEPTFbU7w.99

http://www.a-league.com.au/matchcentre/Sydney-FC-v-Melbourne-City-FC/753897#widget-match-day-tabs

well that was crap, sorry lads. Loads of attempts, but no goals

mailburner

meier anytime 7/4 bet365 (away to stuttgart)

stuttgart bottom of bundesliga, shipped 12 in last 6
meier has 5 goals in his last 3



Alexander Meier, who tops the goalscoring charts with 19 goals, has scored more goals away from home (7) than VfB have in their own stadium (6).


small bets on two or more and hatrick at 10/1+66/1 (bwin)

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

meier anytime 7/4 bet365 (away to stuttgart)

stuttgart bottom of bundesliga, shipped 12 in last 6
meier has 5 goals in his last 3



Alexander Meier, who tops the goalscoring charts with 19 goals, has scored more goals away from home (7) than VfB have in their own stadium (6).


small bets on two or more and hatrick at 10/1+66/1 (bwin)

dung

Nabber

Westham +2.5 goals evens
Downing anytime 9/2

magherakid

magherakid wrote: »

Heads up Hibs 11/10 home against Rangers on Sunday looks a good bet, Rangers have drew with the bottom 3 teams.

Hibs have already beat Rangers 3 times in the league this season. I think the price will be shorter come the weekend.

sorry lads if anyone followed on this

Senor Frog

magherakid wrote: »

sorry lads if anyone followed on this

Followed you on a few , definitely up overall!

Shanotheslayer

El Classico

So a side from everybody jumping on Messi/Ronaldo train, figured I'd do a write up on some stuff. All stats are between Copa/Liga, none CL.

Barca @ Home

In the last 8 H2H Matches, Madrid have only failed to score Over 1.5 goals once.
Messi hasn't scored in his last 3
BTTS has landed in last 8 matches.
BTTS 2nd Half has landed in 7/8 games
BTTS 1st Half has landed in 2/8 Games

There are some great prices:

BTTS 2nd half is 5/4
BTTS no 1st Half and Yes 2nd half is 21/10
Madrid Over 1.5 goals 11/8


Really fancy

Madrid Over 1.5 goals 11/8
BTTS 2nd half is 5/4

The other one isn't really worth the odds I don't think.

Shanotheslayer

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

El Classico

So a side from everybody jumping on Messi/Ronaldo train, figured I'd do a write up on some stuff. All stats are between Copa/Liga, none CL.

Barca @ Home

In the last 8 H2H Matches, Madrid have only failed to score Over 1.5 goals once.
Messi hasn't scored in his last 3
BTTS has landed in last 8 matches.
BTTS 2nd Half has landed in 7/8 games
BTTS 1st Half has landed in 2/8 Games

There are some great prices:

BTTS 2nd half is 5/4
BTTS no 1st Half and Yes 2nd half is 21/10
Madrid Over 1.5 goals 11/8


Really fancy

Madrid Over 1.5 goals 11/8
BTTS 2nd half is 5/4

The other one isn't really worth the odds I don't think.

Fooking ell. Sorry lads.

inforfun

Holland - Turkey

With Iceland leading in Kazakhstan at the moment of writing this and later Czech Rep beating Latvia more than likely, this match is more or less a final.
Loser in this one can all but forget about the Euros.



The last 2 meetings between Holland and Turkey saw 4 yellow cards each.

There is also a ref on the pitch and it is Herr Brych

This is what he does with national teams.


So, i am taking the over 4 Asian cards @1.95 on bet365 and i am taking it big on bet365

Also on the red card @4.33 on Paddy Power. Less big obviously

Might edit this post for some player card as soon as i get the line ups.

TheHannibal

Can you make a new post so I get a notification :-D

inforfun

TheHannibal wrote: »

Can you make a new post so I get a notification :-D

Caner Erkin to be booked @4 (unibet)



On betfair his odds are a bit worse


Dutch players available on Unibet i dont fancy too much apart from maybe Blind @5.5

inforfun

Rubbish.

And i cant even blame the ref, something i never have a problem with doing

Shanotheslayer

Ok guys, after having a good day I'm hoping to end it on a flyer.

Tigre V Defensa Argentina Primera

Season has started recently and Tigre are off to a decent start Winning there 2 first Home games

More importantly there home record is phenomenal.

In there last 22 Home Games:


11W 8D 3L

Now the draws do look worrying but fear not! They drew 5 games in a row at the start of last of 2014. In a more recent run of from it's

4W 1L

Not going into as much detail on Defensa, but there away record isn't great at all

http://www.flashscore.com/match/I3w3YR5D/#h2h;away

Lost the first 2 away this season.

Bets

Tigre Win 21/20

Shanotheslayer

Finished 0-0. Somehow.... Tigre poor finishing.