The Football Tips Thread V

inforfun

Rated all these asian card lines as "weirder things have happened"



Especially Valencia - Monaco with Mark Clattenburg in charge.
Whenever he has Spanish teams on the pitch and there is still something at stake, 7 cards are the norm it looks like.

Rapid - Shakthar should be good for 5 cards too with Bjorn Kuipers in charge. Thing is with him though is that he can be lenient till the moment pleyers are starting to take the piss and it is cards galore. But when things are tough but fair, he tends to keep them in the pocket. Not a gy who pulls out the cards no matter what.

Basel - Maccabi

Collum in charge and i consider this the one that can break the 5-fold. Defintely will need a red card to bring this in i reckon so maybe just go for that.

Celtic - Malmo

Brych in charge and my hope here is mostly on Malmo to pick up a few cards.
1 player in mind for a card bet but he probably is suspended already after being booked in 3 matches in the previous rounds. Odds on him are usually juicy as he is an attacker, Markus Rosenberg (select international cups on that page) One for the return in Sweden though.

And then Skenderbeu - Din Zagreb, the match that yells "TROUBLE" Karasev in charge. No use analysing this one as something will be fixed. just no idea what.

Reason for Asian cards: usually higher odds but also the fact not all 5 will be available for live betting so cash out will not be an option.

So pick your flavour.

seanhynes

was of the view of avoiding Valencia over clattenburg reffing i hate him hes impossible to read, the Skenderbreau/Zagreb match should be niggly enough im thinking a single just on that game, the rest arent too appealing to me, where is Pedro Proenca when you need him

inforfun

Just some change on that bet, will wait for line ups and analyse players before going on the singles or doubles.
There are always players you can chalk down, no matter who the ref is.
Clattenburg has done me some damage as well but is mostly with English football where he is a pain.

inforfun

Just some change on that bet, will wait for line ups and analyse players before going on the singles or doubles.
There are always players you can chalk down, no matter who the ref is.
Clattenburg has done me some damage as well but is mostly with English football where he is a pain.

Ronan Raver77

Anybody else with some tips for tonight? I'm on a terrible run recently

inforfun

inforfun wrote: »

And then Skenderbeu - Din Zagreb, the match that yells "TROUBLE" Karasev in charge. No use analysing this one as something will be fixed. just no idea what.

Cards not good.

Skenderbeu and Zagreb went of the flip/flop today.

Only took overs with 5 to go @5

inforfun

Next tuesday there is a friendly on the cards....

Germany - Holland and for some reason, unknown to me, the Germans are higher than 1.2 to win.

Unibet actually has been so kind to lob on odds of @ 1.75 for a German win.

I ll take some of that.

Holland still have the Blind family involved.
I cant wait till dailey is being made captain, just to get that amateur youth football feeling completed. You know the one where the son of the teamleader is being made captain even though he is fairly **** and drools a bit from the mouth.

Have a rather large stake on this strictly because of the Dutch squad.
No Van Persie, the only reason Holland got to something that looked like football after he came on versus Czech republic as our Blind manager thinks Van Persie cant play 90 minutes due to lack of fitness.
We are talking about a friendly here where he will make 6 subs anyway.....

Robben is in the squad and that is probably why the odds are this high for the Germans.
However, it is already decided that Robben will only play against Wales this friday and will not play the Germans.

Unfortunately Wales is without Bale and Ramsey otherwise i would have been all over that @ 4 for them to win. Might still go for that anyway but small.

inforfun

Biggest i have ever gone on a single bet. (1/3 of that is awaiting approval, so might only be a 50 bet)

Match is tomorrow.
Lots has been said about the way Feyenoord has beaten up Ajax (for the cup) and Heracles last week.
The good old days of John de Wolf and Henk Fraser are reliving a bit again and half the eredivisie is crying big tears about the mean boys from Rotterdam.

Gustafsson is suspended because of an little elbow (after a defender planted his knee in in his thigh). His likely replacement, Vilhena isnt one to pull out of tackles either.

Groningen home matches have 3.1 cards on average, Feyenoord away have 4 (match, not team cards)

inforfun

Won after 52 minutes Feyenoord yellow and a red, Groningen 1 yellow at that point

"Total Cards" are calculated according to the following rules: Yellow card = 1 card, Red card = 2 cards. Maximum cards for one player are 3 cards.

mailburner

thanks infor
bigger than normal bet on that for me

Doyler92

Hey inforfun, I'm a big fan of the card index bet. However, I only do it with paddy power and they only seem to have this type of bet on the premiership games and champions league etc. Is there any online bookmakers that offers more of a volume of these bets eg on different leagues?

inforfun

Doyler92 wrote: »

Hey inforfun, I'm a big fan of the card index bet. However, I only do it with paddy power and they only seem to have this type of bet on the premiership games and champions league etc. Is there any online bookmakers that offers more of a volume of these bets eg on different leagues?

Yeah... Unibet does. or better... did.
They will stop trading in Ireland as per the 16th. One of the reasons i went this big.

888 and 32red do them as well but since they seem related to Unibet, i guess they will be gone too.

Toobz

Rarely do anytime scorers but Harry Kane enhanced to 2/1 on William Hill is hard to turn down.
There enhancements for Christmas are great a lot of them have sailed in.

mailburner

inforfun wrote: »

888 and 32red do them as well but since they seem related to Unibet, i guess they will be gone too.

jeez I hope not
havent heard anything from 888 yet so fingers crossed, 32red stopped months back yet I got no notification off them either...had a tenner in my account and was bullin that i had to use it on casino which I hate
I probably only use 365 more

inforfun

mailburner wrote: »

jeez I hope not
havent heard anything from 888 yet so fingers crossed, 32red stopped months back yet I got no notification off them either...had a tenner in my account and was bullin that i had to use it on casino which I hate
I probably only use 365 more

That Feyenoord card bet you post a screenshot of, was with 888?

If so, let me know after the 16th if they still in business here.

mailburner

inforfun wrote: »

That Feyenoord card bet you post a screenshot of, was with 888?

If so, let me know after the 16th if they still in business here.

888
will do

mailburner

888 still in business

inforfun

mailburner wrote: »

888 still in business

Just signed up with them.

First bet 3x the odds if it comes in.

Will do the same bet as the last one i had with Unibet....

NEC - Feyenoord over 3,5 cards
Odds > 2.35

Cant pass on those odds as it was a winner in 6/8 away matches for Feyenoord.

Blom the referee isnt shy to pull cards. Had 2 Feyenoord matches so far this season and had a sending off in both.



Feyenoord missing Kongolo and Botthegin who will most likely replaced by the guy who was sent off last week (van der heijde) and Nelom.
VdH was suspended for the cup so is available, Nelom picked up a card in that cup match.

El Ahmadi is usually a good candidate too but his next booking means he will be suspended. Next match is PSV at home so i reckon he will be careful tomorrow.

Downside > Nec only 0.9 cards as a team when playing at home

inforfun

Bet was partly based on Blom being the referee but he was replaced by Braamhaar. Not as card happy...

Chrissybhoy

Lads Bolton vs Blackburn kick off at 12.45. Blackburn are 23/20 in PP. Bolton got a hammering Sat 4-0 by a poor team. Blackburn didn't play because their game was postponed so have the fresh legs and are a better team under Lambert Bolton are rock bottom and are not getting paid. @ 23/20 Blackburn need to backed.

Blackburn 23/20 PP Large

Blackburn -1 16/5 PP Small

mailburner

nice odds chrissy

no wins 3 draws 9 losses away for bolton now..considering all that ill have a pop

edit, my mistake bolton at home

rhodes wincast 11/4

SteelyDanJalapeno

Chrissybhoy wrote: »

Lads Bolton vs Blackburn kick off at 12.45. Blackburn are 23/20 in PP. Bolton got a hammering Sat 4-0 by a poor team. Blackburn didn't play because their game was postponed so have the fresh legs and are a better team under Lambert Bolton are rock bottom and are not getting paid. @ 23/20 Blackburn need to backed.

Blackburn 23/20 PP Large

Blackburn -1 16/5 PP Small

mailburner wrote: »

nice odds chrissy

no wins 3 draws 9 losses away for bolton now..considering all that ill have a pop

edit, my mistake bolton at home

rhodes wincast 11/4

Will take a bit of Rhodes wincast

https://gyazo.com/24779142ad3e64d7dbfb272c0499020a

Trimm Trabb

Chrissybhoy wrote: »

Lads Bolton vs Blackburn kick off at 12.45. Blackburn are 23/20 in PP. Bolton got a hammering Sat 4-0 by a poor team. Blackburn didn't play because their game was postponed so have the fresh legs and are a better team under Lambert Bolton are rock bottom and are not getting paid. @ 23/20 Blackburn need to backed.

Blackburn 23/20 PP Large

Blackburn -1 16/5 PP Small

Followed too. To be fair from their 11 home league games so far Bolton have only lost 2, drawing 8 and winning 1 - but with all the other factors considered the price on Blackburn can't be refused.

Shanotheslayer

Hi All,

My bets for tomorrow :

Liverpool +1 Corner 4/5 Think this is generous as Liverpool get a lot of corners, started off very quick in last game and got corners. Arsenal on the other hand don't get as much. So even if Arsenal go 1-0 down I think Liverpool will still get more.

Liverpool Over 5.5 Corners. 6/5

Leicester Over 4.5 Corners, 1/1 Leicester not scoring as much lately but still very attacking. With Vardy and Mahrez back in the squad for counter attacking football I think this is very likely. The fact Spurs have such a good defence I think will help this a lot. Leicester got 5 corners in the cup H2H.

Sunderland Over 3.5 Corners, 4/5

Now for anybody looking at recent stats will wonder why I'm backing Sunderland Over 3.5 corners. Sunderland have landed this line against the mediocre teams in the league, there recent games away have been against top sides, which has left them getting batterd. With Swansea being quite Poor I really fancy Sunderland to get 4 corners.

PopePalpatine

You can get Liverpool +0.5 corners @1.825 on bet365, and you can get Leicester +2 Asian corners on bet365 @evens too.

Shanotheslayer

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Hi All,

My bets for tomorrow :

Liverpool +1 Corner 4/5 Think this is generous as Liverpool get a lot of corners, started off very quick in last game and got corners. Arsenal on the other hand don't get as much. So even if Arsenal go 1-0 down I think Liverpool will still get more.

Liverpool Over 5.5 Corners. 6/5

Leicester Over 4.5 Corners, 1/1 Leicester not scoring as much lately but still very attacking. With Vardy and Mahrez back in the squad for counter attacking football I think this is very likely. The fact Spurs have such a good defence I think will help this a lot. Leicester got 5 corners in the cup H2H.

Sunderland Over 3.5 Corners, 4/5

Now for anybody looking at recent stats will wonder why I'm backing Sunderland Over 3.5 corners. Sunderland have landed this line against the mediocre teams in the league, there recent games away have been against top sides, which has left them getting batterd. With Swansea being quite Poor I really fancy Sunderland to get 4 corners.

I'm pretty much a big deal :pac:

4/4 Boom

shmeee

Well in Shanotheslayer, corners are killing it here lately.

Shanotheslayer

Hi All,

Corners for the weekend:
Everton Over 4.5 Corners: Ideally I wanted the line 3.5 but I figured it was to good to be true to happen twice in a row. 4.5 more than capable of getting that. As many know I'm a very honest Everton fan and I tend to back Everton Corners. 5/6

Sunderland Over 3.5 Corners: I stated in another group that if the line was 3.5 I'd be all over it. Spurs are very good defensively so I don't expect them to concede much. Sunderland havn't landed this line much, but I think 3.5 is a nice line. 1/1

Norwich Over 3.5 Corners: Looking at Stats Norwich Corners are quite Hit and Miss, but I think 3.5 is quite low. I would have expected 4.5 against opposition like Bournemouth. NOW if Bournemouth go 0-1 down, I will back Bourne corners. Bourne get A LOT of corners when trailing. 4/7

Palace Over 3.5 Corners: Palace failed to get 1 corner in there last game against Villa. Which is why I think the line is so low. Generous line I think. 8/11

I stake all my corner bets with the same stake. I may update this later on if I see more I like. But so far I really like these.

PopePalpatine

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Hi All,

Corners for the weekend:
Everton Over 4.5 Corners: Ideally I wanted the line 3.5 but I figured it was to good to be true to happen twice in a row. 4.5 more than capable of getting that. As many know I'm a very honest Everton fan and I tend to back Everton Corners. 5/6

Sunderland Over 3.5 Corners: I stated in another group that if the line was 3.5 I'd be all over it. Spurs are very good defensively so I don't expect them to concede much. Sunderland havn't landed this line much, but I think 3.5 is a nice line. 1/1

Norwich Over 3.5 Corners: Looking at Stats Norwich Corners are quite Hit and Miss, but I think 3.5 is quite low. I would have expected 4.5 against opposition like Bournemouth. NOW if Bournemouth go 0-1 down, I will back Bourne corners. Bourne get A LOT of corners when trailing. 4/7

Palace Over 3.5 Corners: Palace failed to get 1 corner in there last game against Villa. Which is why I think the line is so low. Generous line I think. 8/11

I stake all my corner bets with the same stake. I may update this later on if I see more I like. But so far I really like these.

Only Palace succeeded, Norwich got no corners in the 1st half and Sunderland only got one in their 2nd half, FFS!

Shanotheslayer

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Only Palace succeeded, Norwich got no corners in the 1st half and Sunderland only got one in their 2nd half, FFS!

Yup

Every game was 1 corner short :

Everton 4.
Sunder 3
Norwich 3.


How unlucky

Loafing Oaf

Rooney 20/1 with Bet365 to score 2 or more, as short as 8/1 with some others. Still not sure it's a good bet though...

shmeee

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Rooney 20/1 with Bet365 to score 2 or more, as short as 8/1 with some others. Still not sure it's a good bet though...

Bet365 are always a big price in the 2+ market and I get sucked in thinking its value on players and never hit. One day I will. They were 66/1 last week on a lad and best elsewhere was 25/1. He scored one but that was all.

Loafing Oaf

shmeee wrote: »

Bet365 are always a big price in the 2+ market.

Really? Must keep an eye on it so. Presumably they're not offering seriously 'big' prices on Aguero, Vardy, Lukaku et al though...

mailburner

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Rooney 20/1 with Bet365 to score 2 or more, as short as 8/1 with some others. Still not sure it's a good bet though...

dont fancy it but it is a bit too big so will stick a couple of euro on it..sucked in
tbh its value when benteke is best at 12s

inforfun

Ajax - Feyenoord

Cards over 3,5 > Yes @ 1.73 (big stake with 888)
(Bet365 has over 4,5 @ 1.83)

Feyenoord red card > yes @ 6.8

Blom the ref.

Feyenoord dealt with him 2x this season, at home to Utrecht and away to Ado, both matches saw more than enough cards, both matches had a red (1x Feyenoord)

Ajax also dealt with him 2x > 3 and 3 cards, no red
But both those matches were easy 3-0 victories for Ajax.

markc91

inforfun wrote: »

Ajax - Feyenoord

Cards over 3,5 > Yes @ 1.73 (big stake with 888)
(Bet365 has over 4,5 @ 1.83)

Feyenoord red card > yes @ 6.8

Blom the ref.

Feyenoord dealt with him 2x this season, at home to Utrecht and away to Ado, both matches saw more than enough cards, both matches had a red (1x Feyenoord)

Ajax also dealt with him 2x > 3 and 3 cards, no red
But both those matches were easy 3-0 victories for Ajax.

Won i need one more well in infor

inforfun

That was a gift from 888

markc91

And 5

inforfun

Utrecht - PSV

Over 3,5 cards > yes @ 2.35

Guzubuyuk (sp) the referee who has been quiet this season. But after the Ajax win and the cup match which PSV lost to Utrecht a few days ago, i give this a proper chance.

PSV made quite a few chances compared to that one but seeing Arias in the line up and Pereiro makes this look better than with the ones they replace.

inforfun

only 3 cards.
PSV went to 2-0 way too quick

Shanotheslayer

Posted this on a FB group I'm in :

Was randomly searching through La Liga stats and came across a few stats I found interesting.

I really like the double of :

Barca V Getafe
Atletico V Deportivo

Barca BTTS FH NO 4/6
Atletico Clean Sheet FH YES 1/6

1.68 Double.

Getafe have played 13 away games. They have been losing FH 11 of them. When Barca have conceded at home 6 times in last 10, and a few of them have come in FH, but they're playing very poor away side in Getafe who have only managed 9 goals in 13 games.


Atletico CS YES. Atletico have the best defense in the league. They have conceded 6 goals in 13 home games. 2 From Barca and 1 from Madrid. They conceded 1 goal in last 7 games.

I Strongly fancy this at the minute. I haven't placed yet, but the stats are there for you guys.

inforfun

Looking at the lines, goals can be expected in Adelaide - Melbourne this morning.
If that is happening, i cant imagine Fornaroli will not be on the score sheet.



Fornaroli AGS @ 2.05

inforfun

Nope. Subbed after 85 minutes and there werent many goals to begin with

retalivity

Korean league started back, tomorrow at 5am jeonnam are at home to suwon fc. Suwon finished 3rd in the divison below last year and went up through the playoffs. They lost a lot of the players that got them promoted and seem to have added a heap of new players, nobodies from korea/china/small clubs in europe.

Jeonnam finished 4th bottom last year but were comfortable enough, 20+ pts clear of the relegation places.

Currently jeonnam are 2.2, will have a sizeable chunk of that.

Doyler92

Over 30 booking points in Everton vs Chelsea match at 1/2. Michael Oliver is the ref and has been very card happy in his last couple of matches.

Chelsea should really be pushing themselves to win this match and there will be a number of players on the pitch very liable to get booked.

Here are Michael Oliver's stats for anyone interested:

http://www.soccerbase.com/referees/referee.sd?referee_id=1025

Doyler92

Doyler92 wrote: »

Over 30 booking points in Everton vs Chelsea match at 1/2. Michael Oliver is the ref and has been very card happy in his last couple of matches.

Chelsea should really be pushing themselves to win this match and there will be a number of players on the pitch very liable to get booked.

Here are Michael Oliver's stats for anyone interested:

http://www.soccerbase.com/referees/referee.sd?referee_id=1025

Thank you Diego Costa!

PopePalpatine

retalivity wrote: »

Korean league started back, tomorrow at 5am jeonnam are at home to suwon fc. Suwon finished 3rd in the divison below last year and went up through the playoffs. They lost a lot of the players that got them promoted and seem to have added a heap of new players, nobodies from korea/china/small clubs in europe.

Jeonnam finished 4th bottom last year but were comfortable enough, 20+ pts clear of the relegation places.

Currently jeonnam are 2.2, will have a sizeable chunk of that.

Finished 0-0.

retalivity

Muck... sorry for anyone that followed, poor weekend all round

Shanotheslayer

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Posted this on a FB group I'm in :

Was randomly searching through La Liga stats and came across a few stats I found interesting.

I really like the double of :

Barca V Getafe
Atletico V Deportivo

Barca BTTS FH NO 4/6
Atletico Clean Sheet FH YES 1/6

1.68 Double.

Getafe have played 13 away games. They have been losing FH 11 of them. When Barca have conceded at home 6 times in last 10, and a few of them have come in FH, but they're playing very poor away side in Getafe who have only managed 9 goals in 13 games.


Atletico CS YES. Atletico have the best defense in the league. They have conceded 6 goals in 13 home games. 2 From Barca and 1 from Madrid. They conceded 1 goal in last 7 games.

I Strongly fancy this at the minute. I haven't placed yet, but the stats are there for you guys.

I don't normally do write ups .... But when I do.....


Cruises in

mailburner

longshot but overpriced imo....this market is top four without leicester

west ham top four 33s with betv..next best 20s and as short as 12s

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-4-finish



could do with spurs beating utd tomorrow which would make it interesting

run in...would want to be beating utd and at least drawing with leic
17.04. 13:30
Leicester
West Ham
20.04. 19:45
West Ham
Watford

30.04. 15:00
West Brom
West Ham

07.05. 15:00
West Ham
Swansea

10.05. 19:45
West Ham
Manchester United

15.05. 15:00
Stoke City
West Ham

utd home to villa,leic, bourne, palace, away to norwich spurs
problem is west ham are drawing far too many games and it might not look a great bet but gonna risk a tenner on it

edit, good start with spurs beating utd...best at 22s now