The Football Tips Thread V

Shanotheslayer

Writing this up early as I think the price will drop.

Everton V United FA Cup Semi Final. Saturday 5:15

Man United WIN EVENS.

Just been confirmed that Barry is out for the rest of the Season. With Mori banned and Jags just coming back from Injury. Coleman doubtful. Our Back line looks horrific.

The pace of Martial and the likes could destroy us.

I see our back line being (If Fit)

Coleman Stones Jags Baines. Likely to be Oviedo - Besic - Stones - Baines.

After a thrashing by Liverpool showing no fight or desire shows the weakness of the Everton mentality. The players don't want to play and if they can't get up for a Derby well....

We're having the worst season in years. On horrific form and everything points to a United Win.


Can see United starting the game at 4/6. So I'm getting on early.

mailburner

the whole forum is gonna be on utd tomorrow (myself included)
that's never a good sign

it looks like its gonna come easy to be fair and I'm tempted to do a lot more bets on it

Shanotheslayer

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Writing this up early as I think the price will drop.

Everton V United FA Cup Semi Final. Saturday 5:15

Man United WIN EVENS.

Just been confirmed that Barry is out for the rest of the Season. With Mori banned and Jags just coming back from Injury. Coleman doubtful. Our Back line looks horrific.

The pace of Martial and the likes could destroy us.

I see our back line being (If Fit)

Coleman Stones Jags Baines. Likely to be Oviedo - Besic - Stones - Baines.

After a thrashing by Liverpool showing no fight or desire shows the weakness of the Everton mentality. The players don't want to play and if they can't get up for a Derby well....

We're having the worst season in years. On horrific form and everything points to a United Win.


Can see United starting the game at 4/6. So I'm getting on early.

Boom.

Shanotheslayer

Gents,

Think there is a bit of value in Man City to Qualify at 9/5 v Madrid.

Just saw reports that Benzema has a Hamstring injury( Condition to be confirmed) and also Ronaldo possibly with a torn muscle.

Think Price may go in once confirmed etc etc.

Paully D

Newcastle to beat Palace at home (21/20, Victor and Hills) looks very, very nice to me.

Newcastle have had 3 good results in consecutive games drawing with Manchester City and Liverpool while they also beat Swansea the week before, bringing their total to 7 points from the last 9 available. In Palace they meet a side who have won once in the last 18 Premier League games, a run dating back to before Christmas. They will also have an FA Cup final on their mind and could be expected to lack a bit of effort, which is something that Newcastle certainly haven't lacked of late.

I also like them at to stay up. With the Palace game being followed by a trip to Villa park, it's likely that they will take 6 points and then face a Spurs team who will be deflated after coming up short on their title challenge on the last day of the season. 6 points might even be enough to stay up as it is but they could conceivable end up with 7-9.

Newcastle to beat Palace (21/20, Victor and Hills)
Newcastle to stay up (3/1, Sky and 365)

Shanotheslayer

Going to update this post throughout the day with bets. Won't be around from about 1:30pm

Bets so far:

Borussia Mochengladbach(Yeh i spelt it wrong :P) goal for before 67min 5/6. I like this bet, have a decent record V Munich as spotted by a mate of mine but based on recent H2H results always seem to score.
On Current form they haven't scored much away and Munich haven't conceded much in recent home games. But with Munich 1 eye on CL I like the look of this bet.

Real Sociedaed(Yeh I can't spell get over it :P ) I'm on +0.25 at 1.8, think they'll stick it up to Madrid. Benzema/Ronaldo both out, which is a massive loss.

I'm also on goal Sociedaed goal before 63rd minute.

Newcastle Win Evens - As per (Paully D)


Poor from myself.

Borussia score in 72nd minute Real S lose 0-1 bad day. Thanks Paulie D for Newc

Paully D

I also think Stoke to win (11/5, Victor), DNB (5/4, 888/Uni/32Red) and Stoke DC (7/11, 888) are all worth considering too.

Sunderland are now a best priced 6/4 to win away from home in the Premier League today which is the shortest price I can ever remember them being away since the returned to the Premier League almost a decade ago. It's lunacy IMO.

A lot is being made of Stoke's injury list, but they have Walters back, Pieters is back from suspension, Shaqiri's fit and Arnautovic has a late fitness test so may well make it too.

As for the form, since January Stoke have played 8 home games and won 3. Those 3 wins have come against Norwich, Newcastle and Villa. Spot the pattern.

There's just no way on earth a side like Stoke should be those prices at home to a side outside the relegation zone on goal difference and who have 3 away wins all season.

There's money to be made on Stoke today IMO.

Paully D

Paully D wrote: »

Newcastle to beat Palace at home (21/20, Victor and Hills) looks very, very nice to me.

Newcastle have had 3 good results in consecutive games drawing with Manchester City and Liverpool while they also beat Swansea the week before, bringing their total to 7 points from the last 9 available. In Palace they meet a side who have won once in the last 18 Premier League games, a run dating back to before Christmas. They will also have an FA Cup final on their mind and could be expected to lack a bit of effort, which is something that Newcastle certainly haven't lacked of late.

I also like them at to stay up. With the Palace game being followed by a trip to Villa park, it's likely that they will take 6 points and then face a Spurs team who will be deflated after coming up short on their title challenge on the last day of the season. 6 points might even be enough to stay up as it is but they could conceivable end up with 7-9.

Newcastle to beat Palace (21/20, Victor and Hills)
Newcastle to stay up (3/1, Sky and 365)

Newcastle a best priced 6/4 to stay up now and won today.

Shanotheslayer

Taking Atletico to lift CL Trophy 11/10. Beat 2 of the best teams in the world to get to the final. Have a fantastic record against Real since they lost the CL final.Omen of whatever team knocked Pep out of Europe have gone on to win the CL last few years

Austria!

I assumed Atletico would be favourites

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

longshot but overpriced imo....this market is top four without leicester

west ham top four 33s with betv..next best 20s and as short as 12s

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-4-finish



could do with spurs beating utd tomorrow which would make it interesting

run in...would want to be beating utd and at least drawing with leic
17.04. 13:30
Leicester
West Ham
20.04. 19:45
West Ham
Watford

30.04. 15:00
West Brom
West Ham

07.05. 15:00
West Ham
Swansea

10.05. 19:45
West Ham
Manchester United

15.05. 15:00
Stoke City
West Ham

utd home to villa,leic, bourne, palace, away to norwich spurs
problem is west ham are drawing far too many games and it might not look a great bet but gonna risk a tenner on it

edit, good start with spurs beating utd...best at 22s now

apologies for being a dumbass

it's top four as opposed to the nonsense I posted then
best at 11s now

arse beats city at the weekend and westham win their last three and im sorted, quite possible imo the way city played last night
one of those at home to utd which will decide my fate but the way westham are playing I do think they'll win their last three

DANNY2014

mailburner wrote: »

apologies for being a dumbass

it's top four as opposed to the nonsense I posted then
best at 11s now

arse beats city at the weekend and westham win their last three and im sorted, quite possible imo the way city played last night
one of those at home to utd which will decide my fate but the way westham are playing I do think they'll win their last three

Followed you on this at 33 stuck a fiver on it and its starting to look like a great bet now.

Shanotheslayer

Austria! wrote: »

I assumed Atletico would be favourites

As did I Austria, which I why I think they'res good value there. I priced Atletico at 5/6 or less myself

CriticEyes

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

As did I Austria, which I why I think they'res good value there. I priced Atletico at 5/6 or less myself

Well tbh I hope ye are all wrong and Real win as I have them outright at 5's. :p in saying that I do really like Atletico and I think they are a great team that will cause Real some major problems. Still, for my wallet, C'mon Real!!! :P:D

Stojkovic

Sevilla and Liverpool double -1 was a gimme tonight.

inforfun

Last round sunday afternoon, all matches to start at 13.30

Only 1 match where there is absolutely nothing at stake, ADO - Heerenveen.
Although that is a bit debatable as there is always tv money at stake, the higher you finish, the more you get.

Cambuur - Excelsior > Excelsior can do with a win as they will avoid relegation play offs when they equal or better Willem II's result

ADO - Heerenveen > nothing match as said

Feyenoord - NEC > NEC still can qualify for EL play offs. Feyenoord 3rd no matter what and has group EL after winning the cup.

Graafschap - Ajax > Must win for Ajax, De Graafschap has relegation play offs to worry about and not much to worry about in this match apart from avoiding cards and injuries.

Groningen - Heracles Groningen in for EL play offs and will look at what happens at Feyenoord. Need to do the same or better as NEC and/or Vitesse to keep them behind them. Heracles is qualified for EL play offs and ant to keep Zwolle behind them for home advatage in the 2nd play off matches.

Roda - Willem II Must win for Willem II and even then they rely on Cambuur to get something from Excelsior. Relegation play offs likely as Roda are tough to beat at home.

Twente - Vitesse Must win for Vitesse but that is a lot to ask from them lately. Even a win is probably not enough as that would need both Groningen and NEC to lose

Utrecht - Alkmaar Utrecht must win by at least 2 goals difference in orer to overtake AZ and avoid EL play offs but AZ in much better shape lately and Utrecht still struggling with injuries. Had the cup final last week where they were shockingly bad. AZ will probably score a couple too.

Zwolle - PSV Zwolle needs something here to be 100% sure of EL play offs. PSV obviously need a big win, 6 goals behind Ajax still. Zwolle might get something here actually.



For now.

Will do some more once i have seen injuries/suspensions

DANNY2014

mailburner wrote: »

but the way westham are playing I do think they'll win their last three

DANNY2014 wrote: »

its starting to look like a great bet now.

Think we jinxed west ham 2 0 down to Swansea half time and utd won their game not looking so good now (.")

Loafing Oaf

DANNY2014 wrote: »

Think we jinxed west ham 2 0 down to Swansea half time and utd won their game not looking so good now (.")

What sort of team did the Hammers put out, are they trying to avoid the dreaded Europa?

mailburner

DANNY2014 wrote: »

Think we jinxed west ham 2 0 down to Swansea half time and utd won their game not looking so good now (.")

Fcuk
that is all

inforfun

inforfun wrote: »

For now.

Will do some more once i have seen injuries/suspensions

**** NEC.
Rest was easy enough apart from PSV having 6 corners at HT and managed to finish with 7

retalivity

This hasnt been used recently...

Tmoro morning, 2nd last round of korean champs. Jeonbuk and seoul are level, with jeonbuk top on gd, both at home
Jeonbuk are at home to an army team that have lost half their players after their service ended, seoul at home to jeonnam who got spanked 5-0 by jeonbuk at the weekend.
Jeonbuk and seoul are basically the only 2 teams with anything left to play for, and meet in the last round, winner takes all on sunday, so neither will back off in these games.

Jeonbuk/seoul double @2.0
Jeonbuk -1 /seoul -1 ah double @2.8

NATLOR

retalivity wrote: »

This hasnt been used recently...

Tmoro morning, 2nd last round of korean champs. Jeonbuk and seoul are level, with jeonbuk top on gd, both at home
Jeonbuk are at home to an army team that have lost half their players after their service ended, seoul at home to jeonnam who got spanked 5-0 by jeonbuk at the weekend.
Jeonbuk and seoul are basically the only 2 teams with anything left to play for, and meet in the last round, winner takes all on sunday, so neither will back off in these games.

Jeonbuk/seoul double @2.0
Jeonbuk -1 /seoul -1 ah double @2.8

Followed you on this but took -1 handicap double @4,one landed, fingers crossed for Seoul currently 2-0 up. Typical 2-1 just after I post!

retalivity

Jeonbuk win 4-1, seoul win 2-1.

One double wins, other half-wins.

Will be on Btts and overs for the match between them on sunday, if prices are decent

inforfun

And i went for the -1.5 AH double. greedy **** that i am

ben.schlomo

retalivity wrote: »

Jeonbuk win 4-1, seoul win 2-1.

One double wins, other half-wins.

Will be on Btts and overs for the match between them on sunday, if prices are decent

Thanks for the tip Retalivity, went with the sw for safety sake.

retalivity

Following on from this...

Jeonbuk vs seoul, sun morn 6am irish time. Seoul win, they win the league, jeonbuk win or draw, they win the league.

Both teams are btts & overs kings, jeonbuk stats: 28/37 games btts, 24/37 overs, 21/37 both
Seoul stats 25/37 btts, 24/37 overs, 22/37 both

They've played each other 5 times this season already in the league and afc champs league, 4/5 has seen btts and overs come in.

Btts 1.66
Overs @1.75
Both @2.1

Sizeable stake on btts & overs @2.1 myself, may return with a large stake on overs tomorrow night depending on funds

retalivity

Seoul won 1-0....ffffuuuuuuu!!!!!!

Sorry for anyone that followed

diusmr8a504cvk

Any tips for today's World Cup Qualifiers? Most games are fairly one sided which kind of rules out just wins.

Burial.

Brondby 5/6 away to Odense. Brondby are 2nd in the league, Odense are 2nd last. Brondby's form away from home is only beaten by Copenhagens.

zimmermania

I don't think there will be many goais in the United match tonight and I took the 11/10 under 2.5 with PP

Sgt Pepper 64

Brighton. home advantage will see them through against fulham
Newcastle...will march on
City, should be easy winners against Burnley
Monaco, amazing home record should carry them through against Marseille who have yet to win away in 5 games

good luck all

Sgt Pepper 64

Sgt Pepper 64 wrote: »

Brighton. home advantage will see them through against fulham
Newcastle...will march on
City, should be easy winners against Burnley
Monaco, amazing home record should carry them through against Marseille who have yet to win away in 5 games

good luck all

well only Newcastle let me down, with Monaco 3-0 up and a nice price on them as well as was Brighton

diusmr8a504cvk

Any BTTS tips for tomorrow?

inforfun

Derby day in Rotterdam on Sunday

Feyenoord - Sparta.

We already had 2 card shy Feyenoord - Excelsior's (cup and league)which is a normal thing. Always has a "friendly" feeling that one.
After that we had a hard fought derby with Excelsior - Sparta (3-2, 4 cards 3 for Sparta) and now we have Feyenoord - Sparta.

Compare it to the several city derbies all over the world where one of the 2 is just more succesfull than the other and the inferiority complex plays a huge part. Sparta (fans) dont like/hate Feyenoord. Feyenoord (fans) dont really care about Sparta.

I was pleasantly surprised with the @ 1.9 on offer from 888sport for over 3,5 cards and jumped in with 2 feet.


Referee is Mr Liesveld whose last match that could go down as a derby (i think i tipped the red card here, for sure on twitter) was Groningen - Heerenveen




EDIT:
Above ref had to pull out and has been replaced by someone even "better" for this kind of bet, imo.
Bas Nijhuis:

inforfun

3 cards at ht
And ft
:-(

inforfun

Amount of players clubs have lost to the ACN:

5:
Lille

4:
Angers

3:
Anderlecht, FC Basel, FC Metz, Karabükspor, Kayserispor, Leicester City, Levadiakos, Newcastle United, Panathinaikos, Saint-Étienne, Sunderland, Schalke 04, Standard Luik, Stoke City and Troyes.

Netherlands:
Ajax (Traore), Feyenoord (El Ahmadi), Vitesse (Nakamba) and ADO (Kanon)

Fowler87

Redmond anytime scorer @ 3/1 PP. Was excellent against Liverpool and could have had a hat trick. Up front today for Southampton

evosteo

benfica @ evens

0-3 down

now 3-3 and dominating

evosteo

evosteo wrote: »

benfica @ evens

0-3 down

now 3-3 and dominating

no dice, huffed and puffed but couldnt get the winner

tayto lover

Fowler87 wrote: »

Redmond anytime scorer @ 3/1 PP. Was excellent against Liverpool and could have had a hat trick. Up front today for Southampton

I thought he was very wasteful. Should have scored a lot more than one.

retalivity

Portuguese corners are my new vice til the korean/swedish leagues start up again.

Porto at home to moreirense tmoro in the league, who beat them 1-0 in the cup last week in a bad tempered game with 2 reds. Porto's corners in their last 4 games is 14-12-14-7, total is 17-13-20-11, current asian line for tomorrow is 10.5. feel porto will do them properly tomorrow, and may be dirty again, but cant get a cards price on bet365.

Going large on over 10.5 asian corners, Porto +0.5 ah @2.2

inforfun

I knew it wasnt great a great record they had in January but....

Feyenoord only won 3 of their last 22 matches in January.

Roda away today, never easy as they borrow all the buses they can find and park them.



The bundle of joy that is Roda, 13 from 17 have been under 2,5

Feyenoord over 6.5 corners @ 1.9 on 888

Pick and mix:

retalivity

retalivity wrote: »

Portuguese corners are my new vice til the korean/swedish leagues start up again.

Porto at home to moreirense tmoro in the league, who beat them 1-0 in the cup last week in a bad tempered game with 2 reds. Porto's corners in their last 4 games is 14-12-14-7, total is 17-13-20-11, current asian line for tomorrow is 10.5. feel porto will do them properly tomorrow, and may be dirty again, but cant get a cards price on bet365.

Going large on over 10.5 asian corners, Porto +0.5 ah @2.2

Im jumping the gun a little but...

ben.schlomo

Pacos de Ferreira v Moreirense in Portugal tonight. Welthon anytime @21/10 is cracking value. He has 6 in 17 in the league, 4 in 5 in the cups. Pacos are better at home, Moreirense who are rotten away. He scored in the reverse fixture. Everything attacking wise for Pacos goes through him, he's their talisman. It's not quite the Heldon bets of a cupla years ago but worth a go in my opinion. Good luck if any follow.

ben.schlomo

ben.schlomo wrote: »

Pacos de Ferreira v Moreirense in Portugal tonight. Welthon anytime @21/10 is cracking value. He has 6 in 17 in the league, 4 in 5 in the cups. Pacos are better at home, Moreirense who are rotten away. He scored in the reverse fixture. Everything attacking wise for Pacos goes through him, he's their talisman. It's not quite the Heldon bets of a cupla years ago but worth a go in my opinion. Good luck if any follow.

Its always the one's with the write up that go wrong!!

ben.schlomo

ben.schlomo wrote: »

Its always the one's with the write up that go wrong!!

And he goes and gets two away to Sporting tonight, couldn't make it up.

Shanotheslayer

Hi All,

Write up for my bets:

Arsenal V Hull

With the usual Arsenal collapse around this time.

Hull have a few decent results behind them now and it wouldn't suprise me if they grabbed a result here.

With it being the early KO on Saturday this game just screams 'Coupon Buster' for me. I don't think Arsenal cover the handicap even if they do win. They playing Munich the following Wednesday in Munich soI think they'll have half an eye on that game.

Bet: Hull +1.75 1pt

Burnley V Chelsea

I've been eyeing up this fixture for awhile now waiting for prices and I think there is serious value in this Burnley side.

Burnley have only lost 3 at home all season losing to City/Arsenal/Swansea.

From what I remember of the City and Arsenal loses they were very unlucky, especially in Arsenal game conceding a 93rd minute goal.

Burnley home form is the main reason they will stay up this season and they'll need to keep this going if they want to make sure they stay up because their away form is woeful.

Albeit Chelsea seem another level to all the other premier league teams I still really like the +handicap in Burnley game.

Bets: Burnley +1.25 1.95 1pt
No Goal Chelsea goal before before 36:00 1.83 1pt

My last bet is a double

No team has scored more than 2 when away to Burnley this season and also for reasons as mentioned previously.
Mboro have one of the best defensive records in the league and although Everton put 6 past Bournemouth I don't think this will be repeated.

Chelsea Under 2.5 team goals and Everton under 2.5 team goals. 1.69 2pt

I may increase this bet to a 4pter depending how I feel on the day but as it stands all have been backed as stated.

Bohemian_Soul

I have followed you Shano on the Everton and Chelsea team goals double but could only get 6/10 on the double so have added in Arsenal under 3.5 goals to make it a little over even money for the treble....

Shanotheslayer

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Hi All,

Write up for my bets:

Arsenal V Hull

With the usual Arsenal collapse around this time.

Hull have a few decent results behind them now and it wouldn't suprise me if they grabbed a result here.

With it being the early KO on Saturday this game just screams 'Coupon Buster' for me. I don't think Arsenal cover the handicap even if they do win. They playing Munich the following Wednesday in Munich soI think they'll have half an eye on that game.

Bet: Hull +1.75 1pt

Burnley V Chelsea

I've been eyeing up this fixture for awhile now waiting for prices and I think there is serious value in this Burnley side.

Burnley have only lost 3 at home all season losing to City/Arsenal/Swansea.

From what I remember of the City and Arsenal loses they were very unlucky, especially in Arsenal game conceding a 93rd minute goal.

Burnley home form is the main reason they will stay up this season and they'll need to keep this going if they want to make sure they stay up because their away form is woeful.

Albeit Chelsea seem another level to all the other premier league teams I still really like the +handicap in Burnley game.

Bets: Burnley +1.25 1.95 1pt
No Goal Chelsea goal before before 36:00 1.83 1pt

My last bet is a double

No team has scored more than 2 when away to Burnley this season and also for reasons as mentioned previously.
Mboro have one of the best defensive records in the league and although Everton put 6 past Bournemouth I don't think this will be repeated.

Chelsea Under 2.5 team goals and Everton under 2.5 team goals. 1.69 2pt

I may increase this bet to a 4pter depending how I feel on the day but as it stands all have been backed as stated.

Hull was a half loss. -0.5pt
No Chelsea Goal before 36:00. Loss -1.
Burnley +1.25 wins. +0.95pt
Double Wins. +1.69pt.
Profit 1.14 points

Profit if you followed as suggested.

Headshot

Can someone log into their Bet365 account and confirm what the results of the Valencia v Sporting Gjyon match. I want to see what the end result of corners were.

Please take a screen shot for me