Consequences of a Federal Shutdown

TwoGallants

So. Half of all federal workers are likely to be 'furloughed' come Tuesday night. This state of affairs could in theory go on for a very long time. The debt ceiling debacle is going to emerge its ugly head again as well.

My questions are two fold:

1) Why are the Republicans insane?

2) Do they not understand the consequences of their actions?

Honestly, watching US politics these days is a little like watching the fall of the Roman Empire. We can see it happening, everyone knows what needs to be done to fix it, but...

Manach

Actually old boy, one of the favoured causes for the fall of the Roman Empire was a bloated and moribund bureaucracy which could not deal with the real world conditions of an evolving world. So looks like the Republicans might be doing their best to avoid that fate.

Overheal

And mongols.

daithi1970

It may have more to do with the fact that the Republicans (or to be more correct, the Tea Party faction thereof) have an ideological opposition to Obamacare. If the democratically elected POTUS concedes defeat on this issue, presidential authority will be fatally compromised, and a very unwelcome precedent will have been set by the Koch brothers et al. While this is not quite political vandalism on the Berlusconi scale of things, it comes pretty close IMO.

Daithi

Overheal

Presidential Authority already oversteps its legal definitions, so I wouldn't go that far..

Manach

Mongols were more medieval. There were the Huns, Arabs, Goths (Viso/Ostro), Saxons and of course the perfidious Irish who pressed at the borders.
However the Romans had before met similar and dealt with them in the proceeding centuries. In late empire though, having a large amount of officials and a proportionately large tax burden for supporting such lead to more and more people avoiding taxes and military duties. As well, their was the outsourcing of fighting to non-Romans (think Blackwater) so as not so disturb civil society (bread and circuses) with the wars of Empire. The ruinous partisan infighting to decide who became rule which gridlocked the 4th Century did not help either.

Overheal

I like this man, he is informative!

Manach

Overheal wrote: »

I like this man, he is informative!

Thank you - it shows that a classical education did not go to waste

Overheal

I took a semester in western civ history but clearly I glazed over the finer points of the roman fall

sin_city

Overheal wrote: »

I took a semester in western civ history but clearly I glazed over the finer points of the roman fall

That's unfortunate. Perhaps you should re-take the course.

Amerika

It’s good that the republicans have brought to light the plight of the federal cost of ObamaCare and the debt ceiling. But in the final hours they should now relent and just allow ObamaCare to implode. The government has had 3.5 years to get things in order. The republicans should take a step back and just disallow any extensions or exemptions of any kind for ObamaCare. Don’t defund it or delay it. Require all Americans to abide by its requirements, no exemptions for Congress and their staff, no carve-outs for the hundreds of democrat friendly companies and unions. Let ObamaCare sink or swim on its own as the law is written. Let the American people know how much ObamaCare will cost the taxpayers which we will continually have to borrow. And let the democrats deal with the consequences in the 2014 election.

And what are the consequences of a federal shutdown? It can’t be failure to pay Social Security or Medicare as the democrats have claimed for decades that there is no funding problems at all with these social benefit systems… right?

Amerika

Since 1976 there have been 17 shutdowns. Hasn’t the cost of the government almost doubled since Obama has taken office? And what have we gotten from that growth? I don’t recall us living in the dark ages prior to Obama. Perhaps our government is too big and needs to be reduced... and how else will that come about without a shutdown?

Amerika

Amerika wrote: »

Hasn’t the cost of the government almost doubled since Obama has taken office?

Does phrasing false statements as questions make them impossible to argue against?

InTheTrees

Amerika wrote: »

I don’t recall us living in the dark ages prior to Obama.

Obviously you missed the horror of the bush presidency. His religious crusades into the middle east sure looked pretty medieval.

clairefontaine

So what are the consequences?

Post office?

Schools?

What's going on?

Gandhi

Potentially I won't be able to get my kids' passports renewed in time for Christmas. Fingers crossed it won't last that long.

Also national parks are closed.

Those are the main ones.

I was hoping that we wouldn't have to pay any tax for a few weeks, but I think we are sh!t outta luck on that one.

ETA: Turns out the passports may not be an issue after all.

InTheTrees

We're all shut down now.

So we'll see how long the republicans can hold out.

Cnn poll already says six out of ten voters are blaming them for the disruption.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/30/politics/cnn-poll-shutdown-blame/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

InTheTrees

...meanwhile twenty six million Americans are now eligible to sign up for Health Insurance. Government subsidized if they cant afford it. Biggest social program since social security was started.

And it drives the right wingers nuts.

grizzly

For the Republicans, how much of the pressure to kill ObamaCare comes from their grass roots and how much from the big insurance interests?

Amerika

Deleted User wrote: »

Does phrasing false statements as questions make them impossible to argue against?

Nah... becasue sometimes a yes answer is just a yes.

20Cent

If it is a success and this happens:


Why would anyone vote republican again?

InTheTrees

20Cent wrote: »

Why would anyone vote republican again?

They may not. And republicans know it.

Which is why they're desperate now.

We've been following this legislation from the begining and the republicans have been acting the keystone cops from the start. Totally inept. And bungling every move they've made.

This law has been in effect for THREE YEARS and repubs have been trying everything they can to stop it but its too popular.

They lost the general election last year due to their opposition to the healthcare law.

SO now they try and sabotage it but obstructing the budget? Insane.

InTheTrees

grizzly wrote: »

For the Republicans, how much of the pressure to kill ObamaCare comes from their grass roots and how much from the big insurance interests?

There's a deep fracture in the republican "party".

The Tea Party republicans have pledged to make any republican members reelection campaigns next year very very difficult if they go against them.

And they are funded by Big Money. Insurance interest? I'm sure, yes. And all sorts of other money too.

I mean it stands to reason a Right Wing political party would be against "Affordable Health Care" for the people right?

InTheTrees

Jon Stewart explains:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CeOZ1xzWqjE

Amerika

20Cent wrote: »

Why would anyone vote republican again?

Hmmm... Perhaps if they don’t live their lives with their hand out, aren’t low information voters easily swayed by a biased media more interested in advancing an agenda then their journalistic integrity, aren’t part of a blood sucking public union, aren’t worshipers of the Hollywood elite, don't believe everything they see in a 30 second hopey/changey commerical with no substance, or don’t get the majority of their news from Jon Stewart or South Park. Yup, that about sums it up.

InTheTrees

Amerika wrote: »

Hmmm... Perhaps if they don’t live their lives with their hand out, aren’t low information voters easily swayed by a biased media more interested in advancing an agenda then their journalistic integrity, aren’t part of a blood sucking public union, aren’t worshipers of the Hollywood elite, don't believe everything they see in a 30 second hopey/changey commerical with no substance, or don’t get the majority of their news from Jon Stewart or South Park. Yup, that about sums it up.

Gotta love the Right Wingers huh?

They're so full of Love, so eager to help their fellow citizens, so compassionate.

ha ha ha ha ha!!

Amerika

InTheTrees wrote: »

Gotta love the Right Wingers huh?

They're so full of Love, so eager to help their fellow citizens, so compassionate.

ha ha ha ha ha!!

Did you hear that from Jon Stweart or from South Park? :pac:

clairefontaine

InTheTrees wrote: »

Gotta love the Right Wingers huh?

They're so full of Love, so eager to help their fellow citizens, so compassionate.

ha ha ha ha ha!!

You don't think Obamacare is about compassion do you?

InTheTrees

clairefontaine wrote: »

You don't think Obamacare is about compassion do you?

I understand you consider it a communist coup. But over forty five million people will directly benefit from the reforms.

Overheal

Amerika wrote: »

Hmmm... Perhaps if they don’t live their lives with their hand out, aren’t low information voters easily swayed by a biased media more interested in advancing an agenda then their journalistic integrity, aren’t part of a blood sucking public union, aren’t worshipers of the Hollywood elite, don't believe everything they see in a 30 second hopey/changey commerical with no substance, or don’t get the majority of their news from Jon Stewart or South Park. Yup, that about sums it up.

Unions, Monsanto, Hollywood, The NRA, Food Stamps, Farm Subsidies...

Do you see where I'm going with that?

InTheTrees

Amerika wrote: »

Did you hear that from Jon Stweart or from South Park? :pac:

Actually Fox News. Or was it rush limbaugh?

Ha ha ha!!

clairefontaine

InTheTrees wrote: »

I understand you consider it a communist coup. But over forty five million people will directly benefit from the reforms.

Yeah whatever. 22 states aren getting any assistance for his subsidy. Not only that the idea of penalties if you don't sign up has been postponed for a year.

This is all apt the IRS having more power.

joseph brand

Amerika wrote: »

Hmmm... Perhaps if they don’t live their lives with their hand out,

Wealthy, white, septuagenarians?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJlepw4VUus

Amerika wrote: »

aren’t low information voters easily swayed by a biased media more interested in advancing an agenda then their journalistic integrity,

Oh, you mean Limbaugh, Beck, Hannity, O'Reilly, Scarborough et al. I agree.

Amerika wrote: »

aren’t part of a blood sucking public union,

Something against worker's rights? That's nice.

Amerika wrote: »

aren’t worshipers of the Hollywood elite, don't believe everything they see in a 30 second hopey/changey commerical with no substance,

Like the substance of the Romney-Ryan 5 point plan? It was written on a napkin, but someone accidentally used it to wipe their a**. Cue some fumbling in the pockets by Ryan, and an "I'll have to get back to you after the election with our 'ideas'" response. Who worships this so called Hollywood elite? Is this your own strawman?

Amerika wrote: »

or don’t get the majority of their news from Jon Stewart or South Park. Yup, that about sums it up.

I do wonder sometimes. Do GOP voters have to avoid Colbert, Stewart, Maher and South Park? Jimmy Fallon really managed to capture the essence of Mitt in his few sketches during the election. There's probably some other good comedy I'm forgetting, that GOP/ Tea Partiers have to avoid, out of fear.

I can't even think of one pro GOP comedy programme except for their, ' teaching creationism through voucher programs'.

Some folks think it's normal to believe that farmers once used dinosaurs to pull ploughs, and herd sheep. It's normal for Republican voters. (see Ken Ham)

joseph brand

Sarah Palin would want to watch out. She's got competition.

Government worker (Rep Congresswoman) excitedly tells Fox anchors that the US can do with less government workers. Huh?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mUryqxU264

She's positively beaming, even though 800,000 federal employees will not get paid during the shutdown. It's not like they have bills to pay.

InTheTrees

joseph brand wrote: »

Sarah Palin would want to watch out. She's got competition.

Amazing huh? And these people are basically holding the government hostage. The sarah palin branch of the republican party.

Even if the democrats gave in to their demands how would it even be implemented? It would take another session of congress to repeal the law. Meanwhile the law is in effect and people are signing up.

And you realize this whole debacle is only about passing the budget for the next SIX WEEKS.

This entire battle will have to be played out again. Again. In six weeks time. Which makes it even more imperative that Obama does not give in because if he does there will be more demands next time. And surely the republicans know that?

Black Swan

Real Clear Politics suggests that Republicans will get more of the blame for the shutdown than Democrats: "63 percent disapproved of the way congressional Republicans were dealing with the clash," while "56 percent of respondents had a negative view of (Democrats) conduct during the stalemate." To what extent will these shutdown politics affect the November 2014 elections? Will the voter remember or forget over the next 13 months?

the_monkey

Black Swan wrote: »

Real Clear Politics suggests that Republicans will get more of the blame for the shutdown than Democrats: "63 percent disapproved of the way congressional Republicans were dealing with the clash," while "56 percent of respondents had a negative view of (Democrats) conduct during the stalemate." To what extent will these shutdown politics affect the November 2014 elections? Will the voter remember or forget over the next 13 months?

its 2016 isn't it ?

the elections ?

joseph brand

Black Swan wrote: »

Real Clear Politics suggests that Republicans will get more of the blame for the shutdown than Democrats: "63 percent disapproved of the way congressional Republicans were dealing with the clash," while "56 percent of respondents had a negative view of (Democrats) conduct during the stalemate." To what extent will these shutdown politics affect the November 2014 elections? Will the voter remember or forget over the next 13 months?

I was about to say that most voters will have forgotten this shutdown, by November 2014, but it doesn't happen very often, so it may stick out in people's minds. And if it doesn't, the media will be there to remind voters I'm sure.

The GOP never cease to amaze, confuse, anger and shock, so who knows what they'll be up to between now and then. There's always the chance that what the GOP/ Tea Party have done here, will be overshadowed by something worse in the future.

Overheal

Speaking of low information voters, the poor souls are being bombarded by GOP soundbytes all over the media. It doesn't sound as sexy to describe what the GOP is doing, that they are denying any spending bills not tied to defunding Obamacare. Making congress choose between "National Parks and Cancer Research," to paraphrase Reid.

The GOP is more interested in making opposing bytes, "The POTUS will meet with Middle Eastern diplomats but not with Congress." And even as absurd as that rhetorical nonsense is, they're hoping it will stick. You even have them admitting it on television. "That is a ridiculous comment to make" "yeah but people will remember it!" I certainly will, and I will remember who said it.

Amerika

joseph brand wrote: »

Wealthy, white, septuagenarians?

I wager that the republican party is made of more than just those individuals.

Oh, you mean Limbaugh, Beck, Hannity, O'Reilly, Scarborough et al. I agree.

All you listed are pundits, not journalists… Nor do they pretend to be!

Something against worker's rights? That's nice.

Huh, what does any of that have to do with the fact that public unions (who are large donators to democrat candidates – who ironically negotiate across the table in negotiating bloated and taxpayer crippling salaries, pensions and benefits) most often vote the democratic ticket?

Like the substance of the Romney-Ryan 5 point plan? It was written on a napkin, but someone accidentally used it to wipe their a**. Cue some fumbling in the pockets by Ryan, and an "I'll have to get back to you after the election with our 'ideas'" response. Who worships this so called Hollywood elite? Is this your own strawman?

No.

I do wonder sometimes. Do GOP voters have to avoid Colbert, Stewart, Maher and South Park? Jimmy Fallon really managed to capture the essence of Mitt in his few sketches during the election. There's probably some other good comedy I'm forgetting, that GOP/ Tea Partiers have to avoid, out of fear.

I can’t speak for all, but I have found we tend to look at all sides of reporting and political satire. Just watching or reading only things that support our positions is rather dull and counter productive. Information is strength, and being able to debate understanding the opposition makes our positions more logical... unlike debating based primarily on emotion.

Some folks think it's normal to believe that farmers once used dinosaurs to pull ploughs, and herd sheep. It's normal for Republican voters. (see Ken Ham)

I've no idea what you're going on about... So I got nothing.

Amerika

Black Swan wrote: »

Real Clear Politics suggests that Republicans will get more of the blame for the shutdown than Democrats: "63 percent disapproved of the way congressional Republicans were dealing with the clash," while "56 percent of respondents had a negative view of (Democrats) conduct during the stalemate." To what extent will these shutdown politics affect the November 2014 elections? Will the voter remember or forget over the next 13 months?

Personally I liked them taking a stand, but didn’t believe it should have reached a partial government shutdown. And of course the republicans will get the lion’s share of the blame. There was never a question that a media, who championed the very public shutdown of the government in Wisconsin and hailed democrat legislators as heroes for running away (to other states nonetheless) from their legislative responsibilities, wouldn’t peg republicans doing what little they could for reasonable requests in the budget process as evil and heartless human beings. And of course the media will remind us, ad nauseum, in the November election of the evil that republicans do and have done.

Amerika

Overheal wrote: »

"The POTUS will meet with Middle Eastern diplomats but not with Congress."

But isn't it true?

Overheal

Amerika wrote: »

But isn't it true?

No, it is not.

At the very best it is a distortion of how the government functions. The president of course meets with senators and representatives, all the time. How many times, aside from the State of the Union address, is the Executive Branch as a function of their role supposed to participate on the floor of the Congress? how often? What about the Senate? Is the POTUS also meant to sit in on Supreme Court hearings?

I'd be surprised to learn that the POTUS absolutely refused to discuss politics with Boehner, McConnell, Paul, Bachman, etc

Amerika

Overheal wrote: »

Unions, Monsanto, Hollywood, The NRA, Food Stamps, Farm Subsidies...

Do you see where I'm going with that?

No. But with a better explanation I might.

Overheal

I'll get back to you my math class is over

Amerika

Overheal wrote: »

No, it is not.

Hmmm... A recent exchange between Brianna Keilar, senior White House correspondent for CNN and Jay Carney, White House press secretary in a briefing:

Brianna Keilar: "It just seems hard to believe that the President would be prepared to breach the debt ceiling without engaging House Republicans..."

Jay Carney: "He doesn't breach the debt ceiling, Congress has the power of the purse strings..."

Brianna Keilar: "But it seems unlikely that he would allow them to breach the debt ceiling without having engaged them...to get to a point where there is a default, and the President has not stepped in to engage them."

MonaPizza

Manach wrote: »

Actually old boy, one of the favoured causes for the fall of the Roman Empire was a bloated and moribund bureaucracy which could not deal with the real world conditions of an evolving world. So looks like the Republicans might be doing their best to avoid that fate.

Hardly. The Republicans continuously harp on about smaller government, whatever that's supposed to mean yet the public sector has ballooned since 2000. You want to talk about a completely useless and dysfunctional bureaucracy? Just take a look at the bloated security, police and military apparatus.

InTheTrees

the_monkey wrote: »

its 2016 isn't it ?

the elections ?

And Mid-term Elections are next year. 2014. All representatives in the house will be up for re-election.

Which is why they initially asked for a one year delay. Now they've dug themselves in so deep they're trying to spin it as not so bad.

InTheTrees

Amerika wrote: »

Personally I liked them taking a stand, but didn’t believe it should have reached a partial government shutdown.

The new Fox News Talking Point for today is not to call the shutdown a shutdown but to add the word "Partial" so it doesn't seem quite so bad. Notice how our Fox News colleague is using it.

They're also using the story of US Veterans visiting the War Memorial in DC and being turned away as an Obama Plot to deny US Veterans the Chance to Visit their Memorial. What???

It turns out they want to close down government but leave the war memorials open. They're fine with denying benefits to disabled vets but they want the memorials open.

Truth has gone bye bye...

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

clairefontaine

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Part of me thinks we should keep it shut down.