Sinn Fein more popular than FF , Lab drop to 6%

raymon

Interesting poll in today's Times showing some interesting results.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/labour-support-at-lowest-level-in-more-than-25-years-1.1545588

Labour have hit a record low .
Sinn Fein have bypassed Fianna Fail.
Michael Martin's popularity dropping.
Support for independents up.

FG 26 (+2)
Lab 6 (-3)
FF 22 (-4)
SF 23 (+2)
Ind 21 (+3)
GP 2 (-)

It will be interesting to see what Lab will do next to arrest their decline. Or what FF will do about Martin's leadership.

Sierra Oscar

Shocking poll for Labour, and we haven't even arrived at the budget yet! FF dropping doesn't surprise me, heard very little from the party over the summer months. Will be interesting to how things change in the run up to the budget and beyond. I think Fine Gael could stablise around the 25% mark now over the coming months.

One thing is fairly certain though, that being that SF will likely go into government with either FG or FF. It may not suit their plan, but if the electorate bounce you into coalition then that's that. They would want to be very careful in what they promise over the next few years to avoid falling into the trap that Labour have stumbled into.

gizmo555

I think it's telling that in the week that these poll results are published, Eamon Gilmore's doing photo-ops to publicize an airy fairy new passport design complete with poetry quotes. Personally, if I want something to read on my holidays, I'll buy a book at the airport.

It's hard to avoid the conclusion that he took the Foreign Affairs portfolio so as to avoid direct personal responsibility for the hard choices that need to be made to get the country out of the mess it's in.

Puts me in mind of the old story about how Frank Cluskey asked why Michael D Higgins was absent from a critical parliamentary Labour party meeting, to be told he was visiting the Sandinistas in Nicaragua or something like that. Cluskey responded that it was typical of him when faced with a choice between saving the world and the Labour Party, Michael D chose the easy option.

The same now seems to go for Gilmore . . .

Rightwing

FF led the country to bankruptcy, they have no credibility.
Labour, another left wing party, go into govt in an era of austerity :rolleyes:

FG and SF look like the only alternatives.

Zubeneschamali

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Shocking poll for Labour, and we haven't even arrived at the budget yet!

Their worst result for 25 years! What was happening 25 years ago? Per wikipedia:

from 1982 to 1987, Labour participated in coalition governments with Fine Gael. In the later part of the second of these coalition terms, the country's poor economic and fiscal situation required strict curtailing of government spending, and Labour bore much of the blame for unpopular cutbacks in health and other social services. In the 1987 general election it received only 6.4% of the vote

FTA69

Fine Gael and Sinn Féin would never go into coalition. Similarly, due to the fact that the Sticks are still in ascendancy within Labour I could never see the two of them aligning to create a left block in Irish politics. Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin in coalition is a possibility in my eyes. However I think the most likely outcome in future is an unstable government with one of the main parties backed by Labour and/or a raft of independents.

Zubeneschamali

FTA69 wrote: »

Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin in coalition is a possibility in my eyes.

Sweet divine Jesus have mercy on us.

Skrynesaver

FTA69 wrote: »

Fine Gael and Sinn Féin would never go into coalition. Similarly, due to the fact that the Sticks are still in ascendancy within Labour I could never see the two of them aligning to create a left block in Irish politics. Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin in coalition is a possibility in my eyes. However I think the most likely outcome in future is an unstable government with one of the main parties backed by Labour and/or a raft of independents.

Surely a tweedle-dum, tweedle-dee alliance of FG & FF is the obvious choice, they have no idealogical differences and no meaningful policy differences, the only difficulty would be who gets which perks.

Rightwing

Skrynesaver wrote: »

Surely a tweedle-dum, tweedle-dee alliance of FG & FF is the obvious choice, they have no idealogical differences and no meaningful policy differences, the only difficulty would be who gets which perks.

FF is the most left wing party in the state. You only need to look at allowances that the welfare got under them, the social partnership agreements, etc

Merge Labour/SF/FF. 1 proper left wing party.

Sierra Oscar

Skrynesaver wrote: »

Surely a tweedle-dum, tweedle-dee alliance of FG & FF is the obvious choice, they have no idealogical differences and no meaningful policy differences, the only difficulty would be who gets which perks.

Fianna Fáil would go into coalition with Sinn Féin before they would with Fine Gael. You could possibly say the same for Fine Gael too, both Frank Flannery and Charlie Flanagan said as much as far back as 2009 when they floated the idea of FG going into government wtih SF. When Enda is gone as leader of Fine Gael then the party will be much more open to doing a deal with Sinn Féin.

Fact is that if Sinn Féin get anywhere even near the percentage of the vote that they are on at the moment in the polls then both FG & FF will have to be open towards the idea of entering into coalition with them. They aren't a party on 5% anymore. As I have been saying for a long time now, they will replace the Labour party in the long run. They are fighting for the same vote and Sinn Féin are winning.

This is not like the 1980's for Labour either. If they suffer heavily at the next election then SF will be in prime position to wipe them out.

Zubeneschamali

Skrynesaver wrote: »

Surely a tweedle-dum, tweedle-dee alliance of FG & FF is the obvious choice,

No way FF would fall for that one. The anti-blueshirt vote would instantly defect to SF. FF would be junior coalition partners and take all the stick, while SF would be on the radio in every bulletin as the official opposition party for the whole next Dáil term.

raymon

Rightwing wrote: »

FF is the most left wing party in the state. You only need to look at allowances that the welfare got under them, the social partnership agreements, etc

Merge Labour/SF/FF. 1 proper left wing party.

FF are not left wing , nor are they right wing. They are populist with a heavy penchant for dishonesty.

murphaph

Skrynesaver wrote: »

Surely a tweedle-dum, tweedle-dee alliance of FG & FF is the obvious choice, they have no idealogical differences and no meaningful policy differences, the only difficulty would be who gets which perks.

Indeed it's time FF and FG merged. The civil war was a hundred years ago.

Irish politics is so child like really.

FTA69

Just before the 2007 General Election, Sinn Féin projected themselves to win around ten seats and the language Adams was using included terms such as "kingmakers" i.e. Sinn Féin being the difference between a party being in government or not. Around that time the Sinn Féin leadership were mooting a possible coalition with Fianna Fáil within the party internally and personally I believe Adams and Co had already decided amongst themselves to go for it if the opportunity came up. One thing I remember Adams saying was "we need state power or else what's the point?" Obviously the political landscape is vastly different from 2007 but the sentiment is still there I'd imagine, only now they're in a much stronger position.

Fianna Fáil on the other hand may well be in need of a block of seats to form a government and would anyone seriously doubt their sheer hunger to get back into office? If Sinn Féin are reformed sufficiently enough that may well be a possibility, we've already seen Sinn Féin's willingness to ditch left-wing politics whenever it suits them, that may well happen again. Personally speaking however, while it may be a possibility it's an unlikely one as well. The Fianna Fáil antipathy toward Sinn Féin runs fairly deep and something tells me that FF would prefer to remain out of office (in the hope of reinstating itself as the dominant party in the long-term) than risk a potentially disastrous coalition for short-term gain.

I think we'll either see a minority government (which Martin said he'd support) which will probably be bolstered by a block of aligned right-wing TDs. (Creighton and Co) or else Fianna Fáil back in power supported by the same.

washman3

I stated previously that Labour will be consigned to the dustbin of history joining the PDs and the comical Greens. I will rejoice when the day finally comes, and i'm saying this from somebody who voted for them in the past.
I'm ashamed that I ever wasted a valuable vote on these charletens, a vote that many brave men and women over the last century allowed me to have.
Men and women that made huge sacrifices, sometimes costing them their lives.
It's absolutely disgusting now to watch the swaggering arrogance of Gilmore, Rabbitte, Burton et al.
The election cannot come soon enough.:mad:

FTA69

Skrynesaver wrote: »

Surely a tweedle-dum, tweedle-dee alliance of FG & FF is the obvious choice, they have no idealogical differences and no meaningful policy differences, the only difficulty would be who gets which perks.

You'd think it would, wouldn't you? It's certainly the logical choice considering the party are identical in almost every aspect bar the Blueshirts traditionally being less ingrained at a local level and being slightly stuffier when it comes to right-wing values. A merger would then create a realignment in Irish politics so we would mirror every other country in Europe whose parties are generally divided by actual politics as opposed to a century-old Civil War.

I sincerely doubt that FF and FG will merge any time soon though, certainly not in the next couple of elections anyway. Sinn Féin and most of the Labour party would also be a likely merger that makes sense by this stage.

Manach

There have been excellent Labour politicans, but these seem to belong to the previous generation when they had made an attempt at social justice that involved all working population. Instead, they seem to have, focusing on their economic side, been content to focus on photo-ops and a willingness to toe the European line (Frankfurt's way notwithstanding), and not fight Ireland's corner in the EU - thinking here of Sherlock and the various IP wrangles.

first doyle

An FG FF coalition is more likely than an FF SF coalition. Most Shinners wouldn't go into government with the likes of Fianna Fail.

If Sinn Fein are smart they should allow FG and FF merge. There's no rush to get into government and they shouldn't be influenced by centenary celebrations.

Rightwing

raymon wrote: »

FF are not left wing , nor are they right wing. They are populist with a heavy penchant for dishonesty.

Populism and left wing go hand in hand.

Anyone fancy another giveaway budget? How about another xmas bonus for the welfare.....or increase the OAP by €12.

FTA69

Rightwing wrote: »

Populism and left wing go hand in hand.

No it doesn't. Unless you think people like Hitler, Juan Perón and Silvio Berlusconi were left-wing?

Populism is what it is, it isn't intrinsically linked to either left or right.

Rightwing

FTA69 wrote: »

No it doesn't. Unless you think people like Hitler, Juan Perón and Silvio Berlusconi were left-wing?

Populism is what it is, it isn't intrinsically linked to either left or right.

I don't know much about them, hitler a dictator/nut sort of like Mugabe so I wouldn't count him.

FTA69

The point is that fascism and quasi-fascism (like Peron in Argentina, Evita's husband) has always been linked to populism of a sort. Right-wing politicians like Berlusconi and Le Pen can also break out populist politics. It isn't simply a case of throwing money at people, it's about creating a sense of "we're all in it together" that often transcends left and right and issues of class.

Rightwing

FTA69 wrote: »

The point is that fascism and quasi-fascism (like Peron in Argentina, Evita's husband) has always been linked to populism of a sort. Right-wing politicians like Berlusconi and Le Pen can also break out populist politics. It isn't simply a case of throwing money at people, it's about creating a sense of "we're all in it together" that often transcends left and right and issues of class.

I do tend to agree with that, but they appear the exceptions rather than the rule.

What are the main policy differences between Labour and FF that would make labour a left wing party and FF not one?

FTA69

At the moment you could argue that Labour and are now implementing right-wing policies as they're presiding over austerity politics which are harming working people while aiding those who caused the bloody mess to begin with. It's difficult to seriously advocate Labour as a party of the left while they're wedded to Fine Gael and by extension, right-wing government.

If you discard the above you could find a number of differences between Labour and Fianna Fáil however.

1) More socially progressive - Labour have long argued for gay rights, abortion issues, divorce etc and were the first mainstream party to break from having their social doctrine decided for them by the Catholic Church.

2) Linked to the unions - While Irish unions are f*cking useless for the most part (with the exception of Unite), they do advocate against austerity and attempt to influence the Labour Party in this regard.

3) Less in the pockets of the bankers and certainly less cosy with the economic elite i.e. no Galway Races tents stacked full of millionaires who flew there via helicopter.

4) Generally seek a fairer redistribution of wealth in Ireland.

I don't disagree with you in the sense that Fianna Fáil and Labour aren't miles apart in many respects, but if you accept that fact then you must also contend they're quite similar to Fine Gael as well.

Rightwing

FTA69 wrote: »

At the moment you could argue that Labour and are now implementing right-wing policies as they're presiding over austerity politics which are harming working people while aiding those who caused the bloody mess to begin with. It's difficult to seriously advocate Labour as a party of the left while they're wedded to Fine Gael and by extension, right-wing government.

If you discard the above you could find a number of differences between Labour and Fianna Fáil however.

1) More socially progressive - Labour have long argued for gay rights, abortion issues, divorce etc and were the first mainstream party to break from having their social doctrine decided for them by the Catholic Church.

2) Linked to the unions - While Irish unions are f*cking useless for the most part (with the exception of Unite), they do advocate against austerity and attempt to influence the Labour Party in this regard.

3) Less in the pockets of the bankers and certainly less cosy with the economic elite i.e. no Galway Races tents stacked full of millionaires who flew there via helicopter.

4) Generally seek a fairer redistribution of wealth in Ireland.

I don't disagree with you in the sense that Fianna Fáil and Labour aren't miles apart in many respects, but if you accept that fact then you must also contend they're quite similar to Fine Gael as well.

Good post. I don't know enough about FG as in would they have increased welfare payments etc so much.
FF and social partnership was a fiasco, govt and unions were 1.
Your 1st point is the most valid of those imo.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

lol, FF a left wing party!?

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

Labour on the other hand have totally abandoned their centre left ethos since coming into government

boombang

I find the poll results depressing. Not that I'm a Labour supporter, but there are so many sensible steps that we should be taking to save the economy but aren't because Labour are trying to protect their vote (supporting protected workers in the public sector from competition from young people who'd like a job, failing to reform welfare to provide some incentives to work), but it isn't helping them.

The result is loose loose, more votes for SF(lying thugs) and FF (lying liars) and slower turn around in the economy.

It seems the whole thing is about expectations: Bertie codded everybody for years and peoples' expectations went through the roof. Labour supporters can't deal with the post boom reality.

Rightwing

boombang wrote: »

I find the poll results depressing. Not that I'm a Labour supporter, but there are so many sensible steps that we should be taking to save the economy but aren't because Labour are trying to protect their vote (supporting protected workers in the public sector from competition from young people who'd like a job, failing to reform welfare to provide some incentives to work), but it isn't helping them.

The result is loose loose, more votes for SF(lying thugs) and FF (lying liars) and slower turn around in the economy.

It seems the whole thing is about expectations: Bertie codded everybody for years and peoples' expectations went through the roof. Labour supporters can't deal with the post boom reality.

Spot on.

Labour should have stayed out. Simply wasn't a time for them to be in government.

FTA69

When was? Every time they've gone into government they've only lasted a term or less and lost loads of support as a result.

Sir Humphrey Appleby

Rightwing wrote: »

FF is the most left wing party in the state. You only need to look at allowances that the welfare got under them, the social partnership agreements, etc

Merge Labour/SF/FF. 1 proper left wing party.

Whatever gave you the idea that Labour were a "left wing" party?

Rightwing

FTA69 wrote: »

When was? Every time they've gone into government they've only lasted a term or less and lost loads of support as a result.

With bertie ahern, the giveaways.

Welfare rocketing, PS swelling up to the point of overflow. Pensions and entitlements out of control.

Rightwing

Sir Humphrey Appleby wrote: »

Whatever gave you the idea that Labour were a "left wing" party?

I don't see any place for labour in Ir politics. It's merge with FF or go the way of the pds.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

Rightwing wrote: »

With bertie ahern, the giveaways.

Welfare rocketing, PS swelling up to the point of overflow. Pensions and entitlements out of control.

They don't equate to left wing policies when you put the context of an economic boom behind them

It was under FF that politicians salaries rose to astronomical heights and private investment soared. They were not a leftwing party. You'd think someone with your username would know that

Zubeneschamali

Rightwing wrote: »

I don't see any place for labour in Ir politics.

They'll get a pasting at the next election for sure, just as they always do after a spell in Government. Their best hope is that SF go into a coalition, then all the protest voters will have to vote against SF the following time, and some of them will go back to Labour.

They'll head into opposition and start building again. Union links and a very well established organisation mean they'll be around forever.

keeponhurling

I think that SF will have seen what happened to PDs, Greens and now Labour as junior coalition partners, and spot a trend here - i.e. being wiped out. Well, they'd be pretty stupid not to take notice of this.
I'd say they'd only go into government as senior coalition partners, so we could see a minority government.

FF & FG won't merge either, they'd lose their one selling point, namely that they are an alternative and somehow different to the other one.

Rightwing

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

They'll get a pasting at the next election for sure, just as they always do after a spell in Government. Their best hope is that SF go into a coalition, then all the protest voters will have to vote against SF the following time, and some of them will go back to Labour.

They'll head into opposition and start building again. Union links and a very well established organisation mean they'll be around forever.

Correct - It's their timing that's wrong, they go in typically after FF has thrown the cash about and then massive cutbacks are needed.

View

Rightwing wrote: »

Correct - It's their timing that's wrong, they go in typically after FF has thrown the cash about and then massive cutbacks are needed.

It isn't their timing that's wrong, it's the electorate's who have only looked for an alternative to FF when they messed everything up.

At that point it was usually a case of the opposition parties HAD to act or we'd have faced absolute disaster (and yes there is worse than what we have faced).

Rightwing

View wrote: »

It isn't their timing that's wrong, it's the electorate's who have only looked for an alternative to FF when they messed everything up.

At that point it was usually a case of the opposition parties HAD to act or we'd have faced absolute disaster (and yes there is worse than what we have faced).

I absolutely agree, but just looking at it from a Labour party perspective, they are getting into government at the wrong time.

Incredibly, your simple point is beyond most of the electorate.

Zubeneschamali

Rightwing wrote: »

Correct - It's their timing that's wrong, they go in typically after FF has thrown the cash about and then massive cutbacks are needed.

I hoped they might stay in opposition this time, and we'd have FG led right-of centre govt with left-wing opposition, which might actually develop into real politics, but the numbers didn't quite add up.

Rightwing

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I hoped they might stay in opposition this time, and we'd have FG led right-of centre govt with left-wing opposition, which might actually develop into real politics, but the numbers didn't quite add up.

It's a pity, we would get a clearer picture then about the electorate.

Labour would have risen in the polls, what would happen to FG & FF would have been interesting.

golfball37

The SF result should be taken with a pinch of salt imo. Easy tell a stranger the other end of the phone you intend voting for them, its altogether different when people actually go out and vote or are bothered to.

The opposite I find can be true of FF, people say they won't vote for them but can't help ticking that No 1 against their candidate in the privacy of the booth.

As every poll indicates however the only viable future government we have is a FG/FF coalition. They need to merge so we can play proper politics in this banana republic for a change. We keep hearing about the national interest, its about time they acted in it.

View

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I hoped they might stay in opposition this time,

They could have but that would have been putting their party's interest before the electorate's interest and, probably in that case,....

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

and we'd have FG led right-of centre govt with left-wing opposition,

... we'd have had another election in which the electorate would have hammered Labour for its selfishness.

View

golfball37 wrote: »

so we can play proper politics in this banana republic for a change. .

We have "proper politics" with virtual all major European political movements/"ideologies" here. We just don't avail of the possibilities.

Remember "radical politics" for a lot of people here was voting FG rather than FF at the last general election! :-)

raymon

golfball37 wrote: »

The SF result should be taken with a pinch of salt imo. Easy tell a stranger the other end of the phone you intend voting for them, its altogether different when people actually go out and vote or are bothered to.

The opposite I find can be true of FF, people say they won't vote for them but can't help ticking that No 1 against their candidate in the privacy of the booth.

As every poll indicates however the only viable future government we have is a FG/FF coalition. They need to merge so we can play proper politics in this banana republic for a change. We keep hearing about the national interest, its about time they acted in it.

I don't see how putting a gang of FF shysters into government is in the national interest.

Radiosonde

By the time the next general election comes around, we'll probably be past the current austerity cycle. In those circumstances, are SF and FF really going to give in to whatever reservations they might have about each other as coalition partners?

IIRC FF have already started arguing that austerity should end. Biggest stumbling block would be if FF were the smaller party in next Dail.

Zubeneschamali

Radiosonde wrote: »

By the time the next general election comes around, we'll probably be past the current austerity cycle.

If this is true, all bets are off. The govt will run on "Safe hands, we fixed it, now the brakes come off" and win.

FF/SF have to hope that austerity is still necessary so that the govt look bad.

FTA69

golfball37 wrote: »

The SF result should be taken with a pinch of salt imo. Easy tell a stranger the other end of the phone you intend voting for them, its altogether different when people actually go out and vote or are bothered to.

Sure that could be said for any of the parties. Sinn Féin are traditionally under-represented at the polls.

Godge

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If this is true, all bets are off. The govt will run on "Safe hands, we fixed it, now the brakes come off" and win.

FF/SF have to hope that austerity is still necessary so that the govt look bad.

An analysis I would tend to agree with.

Labour have been hit with a double-whammy that is mostly the fault of their own poor strategic thinking.

At the last election Labour gained public service votes from FF and lost social welfare votes to the far left and SF. They then took the votes they gained for granted and went after the votes they lost. What they didn't realise was that the minute they welched on the Croke Park Agreement and cut public servants pay again that they would lose all their public service votes. They also didn't realise that the social welfare vote was gone for ever, that vote is always destined for a protest party and once you are in government you never get it in the next election.

The policy of protecting social welfare from real reform and cuts hasn't brought any political benefit while attacking public servants with more cuts and longer working hours has cost them hugely.

Mr.Micro

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If this is true, all bets are off. The govt will run on "Safe hands, we fixed it, now the brakes come off" and win.

Let us hope that is the case. Just when people may be getting their heads above water, the last thing we need is FF in any form. Martin cannot lead FF let alone the country.

johnnyskeleton

I wonder who all these new Sinn Fein voters actually are? Or maybe I just live in a bubble.