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Tropical Storm KAREN

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  • 03-10-2013 2:22pm
    #1
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭


    ...TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

    130434W5_NL_sm.gif
    000
    WTNT42 KNHC 031312
    TCDAT2

    TROPICAL STORM KAREN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
    800 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

    AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
    AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOUND A
    CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB AND SURFACE
    WINDS AROUND 50 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...ADVISORIES ARE BEING
    INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM KAREN. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
    DISPLACED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO MODERATE
    SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE
    INTENSIFY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT
    GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH SOME
    WEAKENING EXPECTED AS KAREN APPROACHES THE GULF COAST...BUT THE
    STORM COULD STILL BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL.

    THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 340/11 GIVEN THE RECENT
    FORMATION OF THE CENTER. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
    NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THEN
    ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A
    MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
    ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEST/EAST
    SPREAD IN THE TRACKS...WITH THE ECMWF ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
    GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFS FARTHEST EAST. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
    IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE TVCA
    MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH LANDFALL. NOTE THAT A TRACK FARTHER
    EAST WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A STRONGER STORM...WHILE KAREN WOULD
    LIKELY BE WEAKER IF IT TAKES A TRACK FARTHER WEST.

    GIVEN THE FORECAST...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
    ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 03/1300Z 22.0N 87.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
    12H 03/1800Z 23.4N 88.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
    24H 04/0600Z 25.4N 88.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
    36H 04/1800Z 27.0N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
    48H 05/0600Z 28.3N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
    72H 06/0600Z 31.0N 87.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
    96H 07/0600Z 34.5N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H 08/0600Z 38.5N 77.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

    $$
    FORECASTER BRENNAN

    Bs5Cv5f.jpg

    Karen is the 11th named storm of the 2013 season. The average number of named storms in a season (1981–2010) is 12, so with 57 days left in this hurricane season it's likely that we'll still end up with a higher than average number of named storms, even though it hasn't been a very interesting year so far and hasn't lived up to forecasts.


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