Treve Treve Treve

NachoBusiness

Treve drawn 8. Not ideal. 2-7 do best statistically.

However, most of the main rivals have been drawn in the car park.

Go Treve!!!!!

tryfix

The first 3 in the betting are miles ahead of the competion, although Irish Champion Stakes form puts Free Eagle and Found on Golden Horn's tail.

Golden horn was really taking off at the end of the Irish Champion and when he won the Eclipse. He's the probable winner on genuine good ground.

The heart says Treve and I hope she does win to make it a fabulous 3 in a row.

I'm torn between backing Golden Horn who's too big a price for his level of ability or New Bay who's way behind him on form.

If the big two, Treve ( ground? ) and Golden Horn ( hard season, not trained specifically for the race and John Gosden's Arc horses usually flop ) can't tear away from the field and the pack is on their tails. Then New Bay has shown a turn of foot in his Prix Du Jockey Club win that was Dancing Brave like in it's appearance, he even carries the same colours as the Brave. I can't ignore that good impression and his subsequent preparation for the Arc so that'll be my bet in hope rather than in confidence.

CorkColin

" I suppose there is that slight concern that she hung right on hitting the front when bolting up in the Vermeille but I don't really buy this theory that drying ground will be a major problem. True, she flopped on a proper summer surface at Royal Ascot last year but she clocked 2'26'05 when winning this race last year and a smooth success in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud has shown that she is more than effective on good ground. As already noted, if you oppose her, you are looking for Treve to underperform for an unexpected reason. That does happen, but if she brings her A-game then the bar is set extremely high." +1 Should be interesting though

byronbay2

Disastrous draw for Golden Horn - Gosden/Oppenheimer will be devastated! Couldn't back him now.

Found and Flintshire not done any favours either. Must be between Treve and New Bay at this stage.

tryfix

byronbay2 wrote: »

Disastrous draw for Golden Horn - Gosden/Oppenheimer will be devastated! Couldn't back him now.

Found and Flintshire not done any favours either. Must be between Treve and New Bay at this stage.

If the draw is going to be a big problem, then Frankie will rush him to the front early ( he's got the speed to do it ) and settle thereabouts until the business end of the race.

If he's on song on the day the draw won't stop him.

Warper

I hope Treve wins and will probably back her in a multiple or something . If she runs to her best she will walk it - just look at her last 2 Arc wins. New Bay at around 5-1 looks a guaranteed e/w play though

diomed

About 1/3 of favourites win it.
All 5 favourites from 2010 to 2014 lost.
All 6 favourites from 1994 to 1999 won.
1 favourite from 15 from 1979 to 1993 won.
Sea The Stars was odds-on and won.
Before him the previous 5 odds-on favourites lost.
Treve at 1/1 is terrible value in a field of 18.

kalinisi

Going to Dutch Free Eagle and New Bay, then collect Sunday afternoon ...... if only it was that easy!

byronbay2

tryfix wrote: »

If the draw is going to be a big problem, then Frankie will rush him to the front early ( he's got the speed to do it ) and settle thereabouts until the business end of the race.

If he's on song on the day the draw won't stop him.

Easier said than done! GH might have the class to rush to the front and then settle but a lot of horses don't. Also, burning that much energy in the 1st 2 furlongs leaves a horse very vulnerable at the end. Zarkava and Treve have won from high draws recently but were hold-up horses who won by brilliant bursts of acceleration - GH is not that kind of animal!

PM me nudes

Why oh why is Aidan running Tapestry in this? The Fillies/Mares race was perfect for her

diomed

tryfix wrote: »

If the draw is going to be a big problem, then Frankie will rush him to the front early ( he's got the speed to do it ) and settle thereabouts until the business end of the race.
If he's on song on the day the draw won't stop him.

They have rules about crossing over. The jockeys have to keep a straight course.

Pinesky

Im very surprised Al Shaqab havnt asked Frankie to step down from GH .
it's a massive conflict of interest for all concerned and could have repercussions . imagine Frankie testifying against Treve at an enquiry .

A sober view of the draw: https://www.timeform.com/racing/articles/rowleyfile-investigates-the-prix-de-l%E2%80%99arc-de-triomphe-draw-2392015

I think it tends to be over-stated.

diomed

And his revised review of past Arc draws, probably written after he read my posts on the Betfair forum
https://www.timeform.com/racing/articles/rowleyfile-investigates-abbaye-draw-and-update-on-arc-draw-2992015

diomed

Treve, Treve, not Treve.

diomed

diomed wrote: »

And his revised review of past Arc draws, probably written after he read my posts on the Betfair forum
https://www.timeform.com/racing/articles/rowleyfile-investigates-abbaye-draw-and-update-on-arc-draw-2992015

lol. very good!

Compelling enough but with a sample size so small I'd want to actually do the starting price analysis (or rather pre-draw price analysis) for the horses drawn 1-4 as opposed to elsewhere.

I know a winner needs luck in running and I also know I am in a minority but I find it hard to get too excited about the draw in a 1m4f race. But facts are facts. Off to take a look at stalls 1-4!

diomed

Draw Draw Draw Draw Draw Draw Draw Draw Draw Draw Draw Draw Draw Draw Draw Draw Draw Draw Draw Draw Draw Draw Draw Draw Draw Draw
Time Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
144.49 2011 2 9 11 14 6 10 13 15 4 1 16 8 3 12 7 5
144.60 1997 2 15 1 12 11 5 13 6 7 10 14 9 4 3 16 8 18 17
144.70 2002 3 13 5 1 9 2 8 15 7 11 10 14 12 16 4 6
145.00 2004 5 1 9 19 12 16 13 6 8 20 17 3 10 15 14 2 18 11 4
145.80 2000 7 9 2 10 6 1 8 5 4 3
146.05 2014 3 4 15 20 5 12 9 14 6 7 1 16 8 2 18 13 10 19 17 11
146.30 1987 8 9 4 5 3 11 10 6 2 1 7
146.30 2006 4 5 2 1 3 7 8 6
146.30 2009 6 1 19 12 2 10 8 16 17 9 11 15 3 18 4 13 5 14 7
147.30 1988 4 5 13 14 23 22 11 20 12 2 16 1 6 21 17 3 15 8 10 9 18 24 19 7
147.40 2005 6 4 13 15 8 1 14 2 9 10 5 11 3 7 12
147.70 1986
148.00 1980 6 1 5 15 20 8 11 14 12 13 17 3 17 19 9 16 7 2 4 10
148.10 1983 6 20 8 21 2 12 16 23 15 26 11 4 3 13 17 18 22 10 19 24 15 9 7 1 25 5
148.30 1971 7 18 16 14 11 10 15 8 5 2 12 1 17 13 9 6 4 3
148.50 2007 6 4 11 10 5 2 3 8 1 12 9 7
148.80 2008 1 3 9 2 8 15 14 7 16 4 12 5 10 6 11 13
148.90 1979
149.50 1985 4 12 2 15 5 10 6 11 3 1 7 8 9 13 14
149.80 1990 10 8 11 16 14 6 12 4 17 21 20 2 18 13 1 7 15 5 19 9 3
149.90 1996 5 10 11 13 9 1 6 8 4 7 16 2 3 14 12 15
150.60 1977
150.80 1989 16 12 9 14 3 17 15 4 5 7 11 18 13 19 1 8 2 10 6
151.10 1994 2 10 1 3 4 9 7 20 12 5 13 17 8 14 6 16 15 19 11 18
151.40 1991 12 6 1 10 4 9 7 14 5 8 3 2 13 11
151.80 1995 7 3 11 15 4 14 9 8 13 2 12 1 10 5 16 6
152.04 2013 15 8 9 11 10 18 6 7 4 2 16 5 14 13 3 1 17
152.30 2003 14 10 1 4 13 6 5 9 7 8 2 12 3
153.60 1975
154.50 1998 7 2 9 13 5 1 6 14 8 11 4 10 12 3
155.20 1981 14 7 1 9 24 22 4 8 15 19 10 23 17 12 6 5 11 13 21 3 18 16 20 2
155.30 2010 8 10 3 9 1 17 5 4 7 20 13 6 11 14 16 15 18 2
156.10 2001 15 4 11 6 1 16 9 10 17 13 3 12 8 2 7 14 5
156.50 1978
157.00 1982
157.68 2012 6 18 17 1 3 7 5 16 11 14 10 13 15 9 2 4 8 12
157.90 1993 9 23 15 14 16 12 11 19 10 20 8 5 17 7 2 13 18 6 22 21 4 1 3
158.50 1999 4 1 14 8 6 5 11 9 10 7 13 12 3 2
159.00 1992 14 9 12 17 18 6 11 2 16 8 1 5 7 10 3 4 15 13
159.10 1984 17 20 5 22 8 7 15 9 12 18 21 4 11 1 13 19 10 6 3 14 2 16
159.40 1976


I could have made some errors in input / finding the info.
With finishing position, racecard number, stall draw it is easy to type in the wrong number.

How to read it:
The finishing positions are across the top of the page.
The data is ordered from fastest finishing year (2011) down to slowest (1976).
The first line ..... 2011: Danedream 1st (drawn 2); Shareta 2nd (drawn 9); Snow Fairy 3rd (drawn 11) and so on.

The draw position of the winner reading from the fastest year downwards is:
2, 2, 3, 5, 7, 3, 8, 4, 6, 4, 6, 6, 6, 7, 6, 1
A higher draw can do well in a small field as they have less traffic to get through (2000, 2006, 2007).
Do not make the mistake as some do by saying a low draw can not win if it is soft. A low draw is never a disadvantage. But a high draw is a disadvantage of fast ground imo.

Seeing the info laid out like that might suggest to you that a low draw is needed on fast ground.
Winners have come from high draws on fast ground.
Walter Swinburn won on All Along from stall 24 of 26 in 1983. When he came out of stall 24 he did the brave thing.
He let the others go, took his horse to the inside rail, and stayed on the rail. It was a fast race 2:28.10. A gap opened on the rails, and he took her through to win.

Unfortunately, the draw is not available for many years.
I went to a French forum and asked, and someone kindly gave me a link to 1980, 1983, 1985, 1987, 1990 results with stall draw.

2013 Treve stall 15 slow time 2:32.04 ... the poor draw was not a great disadvantage
2014 Treve stall 3 fast time 2:26.05 ... the low draw was a big advantage
2015 Treve stall 8 fast ground (I expect) ... stall 8 is not ideal

I really have not had a real bet yet, but took a few prices (mostly yesterday).
Erupt 70 €10.00 €690.00
Erupt 100 €4.07 €402.93
Eagle Top 210 €4.59 €959.31
Eagle Top 220 €0.41 €89.79
Eagle Top 350 €6.00 €2,094.00

tryfix

Allez Treve les magnifique..

Loooking forward to a brilliant day's racing today. Hope the 2013 Treve shows up and blows us and the opposition away.

Watch out for one of O'Briens fillies to run into a place. Had a bet on New Bay just for an interest ( although no Dubawi has ever been within an asses roar of the the greats, the French are master trainers and he has a serious turn of foot ) but Golden Horn is the only serious opposition to an on form Treve.

Itziger

tryfix wrote: »

Allez Treve les magnifique..

Loooking forward to a brilliant day's racing today. Hope the 2013 Treve shows up and blows us and the opposition away.

Watch out for one of O'Briens fillies to run into a place. Had a bet on New Bay just for an interest ( although no Dubawi has ever been within an asses roar of the the greats, the French are master trainers and he has a serious turn of foot ) but Golden Horn is the only serious opposition to an on form Treve.

The 2014 version wasn't too bad either.

Hope she does it, would love to be there.

@25

Love to see Treve do it bit Ive backed Found @25's

Shemale

She is going to cakewalk it. C'mon Treve

In fairness to Frankie...that was a super ride

Shemale

What the **** was that, he never properly asked her.

Johner

Golden Horn is one of the best, what a horse.

PM me nudes

As much as I detest Dettori, that was a top class ride

STB.

If she got third, what will the french do.....

She hung across....

gazza1

Super ride on a super horse

tryfix

Shemale wrote: »

What the **** was that, he never properly asked her.

The ground, remember Ascot?

PM me nudes

Jarnet has blamed the ground, which is fair enough.

NachoBusiness

What's the point in having a pacemaker if you're just going to sit that far off it. Especially given she was a little keen.

Not taking anything away from Golden Horn / Frankie. Exceptional ride.

glic71rods46t0

Anyone know what the Paris Mutuel is paying on Golden Horn?

NachoBusiness

PM me nudes wrote: »

Jarnet has blamed the ground, which is fair enough.

He would and yes, she has an exceptional turn of foot on softer, but you can't allow a horse like Golden Horn to go on and dictate the speed of the race, especially given the going. Just listening to Frankie there being interviewed and he said the speed he was going he knew he wouldn't be passed. Jarnet should have felt that too and got into her sooner. Golden Horn was the real pacesetter of the race.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIrMbXNMiGY

Itziger

You could see it even on the tv. She wouldn't let herself go. She came there at the two furlong pole or so not unlike last two years and there was no turbo reaction.

Dettori did well tbf.

Shemale

tryfix wrote: »

The ground, remember Ascot?

It looked very similar but he never seemed to ask her there either, even though he wasn't asking she seemed to be moving fine today.

Unless they were worried about an injury but you would have to ask why run her. Imagine a Gallileo out of her :eek:

Really flat now was hoping to see greatness, only watched the Derby and The Arc this year.

Looking forward to the proper racing now.

NachoBusiness

Itziger wrote: »

You could see it even on the tv. She wouldn't let herself go. She came there at the two furlong pole or so not unlike last two years and there was no turbo reaction.

It would an impossibility for Treve to come and pass Golden Horn with a turn of foot at that speed.

People are used to seeing Treve's turn of foot on softer going against lesser opposition and so the ground will be blamed but that's a shame, as it it doesn't tell the true story. Golden Horn is an exceptional horse and you simply can't give him that much rope. Jarnet rode a poor race in my view.

Not necessarily saying Treve would or should have beaten him, but she was not ridden in a way that gave her a chance to, imo. Jarnet knows the ground was not ideal, knew that Golden Horn was setting a fast pace and so you can't just not respond to that and just think you can come and press the button late on. That's Jamie Spencer mentality. Fine in a slow race against inferior horses, but not in an Arc.

Dettori did well tbf.

Absolutely. Excellent ride. Vintage Dettori.

rule supreme

What was the time like , was it faster than treves time last year .

Itziger

NachoBusiness wrote: »

It would an impossibility for Treve to come and pass Golden Horn with a turn of foot at that speed.

People are used to seeing Treve's turn of foot on softer going against lesser opposition and so the ground will be blamed but that's a shame, as it it doesn't tell the true story. Golden Horn is an exceptional horse and you simply can't give him that much rope. Jarnet rode a poor race in my view.

Not necessarily saying Treve would or should have beaten him, but she was not ridden in a way that gave her a chance to, imo. Jarnet knows the ground was not ideal, knew that Golden Horn was setting a fast pace and so you can't just not respond to that and just think you can come and press the button late on. That's Jamie Spencer mentality. Fine in a slow race against inferior horses, but not in an Arc.



Absolutely. Excellent ride. Vintage Dettori.

She pulled away from a couple of very good animals in the 2013 running. Put lengths into them. Wonder if the French are regretting not watering the course.

Kristopherus

rule supreme wrote: »

What was the time like , was it faster than treves time last year .

2min 27secs.

NachoBusiness

Itziger wrote: »

She pulled away from a couple of very good animals in the 2013 running. Put lengths into them.

Aye, but on going that exploits her amazing turn of foot she put lengths into them.
They knew she didn't have that today and so that is why I feel should not have been ridden as if she did.
The whole point of putting a pacemaker in the race was so that they wouldn't dawdle and that if they did, Treve wouldn't have to be the one to go on and set a fast pace.
All easily said in hindsight of course, I appreciate that..

Wonder if the French are regretting not watering the course.

They'd have been accused of favoritism given the connections with track I'd say.

Anyway, hope she runs again. An amazing horse no matter the result.

NachoBusiness

Kristopherus wrote: »

2min 27secs.

Almost a full second slower than last year, despite it being faster going.

tryfix

Itziger wrote: »

She pulled away from a couple of very good animals in the 2013 running. Put lengths into them. Wonder if the French are regretting not watering the course.

She'd have beaten this field if the ground had been soft. It was a poor enough result bar the winner. She beat Flintshire last year by the same 2l that Golden Horn beat him this year and she was a bit below par on the good ground last year.

Ground, ground, ground beat Treve Treve Treve. 'Tis a pity but soft ground brilliance is markedly different than good ground racing. She'd have kicked the stuffing out of any horse in the 2013 Arc, including Frankel.

Hard to believe Pether's Moon beat the 2nd in the Coronation Cup. Where's he gone?

NachoBusiness

tryfix wrote: »

Ground, ground, ground beat Treve Treve Treve.

In fairness, you can't just blame the ground. Jarnet's positioning was awful.

Last year he took position on the rail from the start, remained four to five lengths off the pace and then produced Treve as soon as they entered the home straight... on favoured going.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y95dVajPF1U

In contrast, today he made no effort to get the rail, positioned Treve on the wide outside and sat 12 lengths off the pace until rounding for the homestraight ... on unfavoured going.

I appreciate that Treve was a little keen, and fully acknowledge that she loves softer going, but if anything that just makes his choice all the more incredulous. Again, not saying she would have won, but Jarnet gave her a mountain to climb when he needn't have done.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sjuu8PmZ0bY

rule supreme

So whats the plans for Treve and Golden horn , will they run again .

NachoBusiness

rule supreme wrote: »

So whats the plans for Treve and Golden horn , will they run again .

Treve has been retired.

Racing manager to Treve's owner Sheikh Joaan, confirmed Treve's retirement.

He said: "She's run a great race. Thierry Jarnet is so disappointed as I think she was a bit free early. He just pointed at the ground. He was gutted - he could hardly speak.

"He just said it was too quick for her, but personally I think she was just a little bit keen and a little bit fresh and was never quite in the right spot."

Jon Stark

Seems a bit much Jarnet blaming the ground. He was full of bravado this week and made a few outlandish statements, so if he was choked up after the race I'd say it's because of the ****e he spouted that became egg on his face.

That being said Oppenheimer started it.

NachoBusiness

Jon Stark wrote: »

Seems a bit much Jarnet blaming the ground. He was full of bravado this week and made a few outlandish statements, so if he was choked up after the race I'd say it's because of the ****e he spouted that became egg on his face.

That being said Oppenheimer started it.

True but his comments yesterday which dismissed almost all of the opposition certainly make very interesting and telling reading now, given the ride today...

THIERRY Jarnet believes trouble in running could provide the biggest obstacle to Treve's bid for a third Arc success, after the dual champion was handed stall eight in a field of 18 for Sunday's €5 million Qatar-sponsored showdown.

"It's a good thing not to be too far away from the pacemaker because I know she is there if I need her, but the main reason for having her in there is to ensure a good pace," said Jarnet, who will become the leading jockey in the race's history if securing career win number five aboard Treve.

He added: "She will do her work and then after that it's up to us. It's a satisfactory draw but I think the thing that is more important than the stall number is to avoid any traffic problems and get a clean, evenly paced race. After that the best horse should win."

Jarnet added: "We have plenty of runners and there are some very good horses but also some which probably aren't really up to the level required, so I hope they don't get in the way."

The above clearly shows that in Jarnet's mind (even knowing that the going didn't suit Treve as much as it suited others) he felt that all he had to do was avoid trouble and press the button when he wanted. I think taking the wide position was deliberate and his remarks about horses not being up to the level of Treve also explains why he didn't really see a problem with keeping her so far off the pace for so long.

Blaming the ground alone is absurd in my view. There was nothing about Treve's action that would make anyone think that the ground was such a big issue for her that she had no chance on it. Sure she still came with a run and was still going forward at the finish. If she finished at the back, then fine, but she produced when asked, just not as fast as she would have on slower going, but sure the dogs on the street knew she wouldn't be capable of that. There is nothing wrong with going wide per se, but at least go wide and go on, as Frankie did. Sitting on the outside while Treve so clearly wanted to go on is unforgivable. She was never going to win from so far off the pace in that going and the only person who seems to have not truly accepted that, was Jarnet.

mdwexford

Jon Stark wrote: »

Seems a bit much Jarnet blaming the ground. He was full of bravado this week and made a few outlandish statements, so if he was choked up after the race I'd say it's because of the ****e he spouted that became egg on his face.

That being said Oppenheimer started it.

But he was right.

It's fine to talk trash if you can back it up.

uxiant

tryfix wrote: »

The ground, remember Ascot?

The ground was pretty similar if not the same last year. Timeform had it as good to firm. Her poor run at Ascot was more because of the foot and back problems she was having at the time I would think.

She might be better with some cut in the ground but she definitely ran better in the Arc last year than this time. I don't think there's any real excuses for her and she was just beaten by better horses on the day although Benoist did a horrible pacemaking job on Shahah. He basically towed Golden Horn into the lead off a steady pace. Fabre could have also been right when he said Treve was too good in the Vermeille and may have peaked to early.

Can't have the ground as an excuse after winning an Arc and Group 1s on French good which good to firm half of the time.

diomed

Treve got the breaks in 2014. She got a gap at the head of the straight while Flintshire had to thread his way through.
This year Golden Horn got a nice tow from Treve's pacemaker. Once the serious racing started on that fast ground I doubt if a 6f sprinter joined the race he would pass.
Margins are small between the top horses. Any small advantage gained or conceded can make the difference.

I backed Eagle Top. He had lost any chance after 30 yards, slowly out of the stalls. Instead of being with the pace from stall 3 he was buried behind horses.

tryfix

uxiant wrote: »

The ground was pretty similar if not the same last year. Timeform had it as good to firm. Her poor run at Ascot was more because of the foot and back problems she was having at the time I would think.

She might be better with some cut in the ground but she definitely ran better in the Arc last year than this time. I don't think there's any real excuses for her and she was just beaten by better horses on the day although Benoist did a horrible pacemaking job on Shahah. He basically towed Golden Horn into the lead off a steady pace. Fabre could have also been right when he said Treve was too good in the Vermeille and may have peaked to early.

Can't have the ground as an excuse after winning an Arc and Group 1s on French good which good to firm half of the time.

That's very fair and she posted a very fast time last year in the Arc.

She clearly wasn't on her best form yesterday. The spark wasn't there yesterday and she wasn't anywhere near as good on the good to firm in 2014 as she was in the soft in 2013 but she was electric in the Vermeille on Soft ground and those soft ground gears were absent yesterday.