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Catagory 5 Tropical Cyclone to strike east Coast of India
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India is set to take a devastating blow from Severe Tropical Cyclone Phailin later Friday through this weekend.
Destructive winds over 160 kph (100 mph), flooding rain of 100-200 mm (4-8 inches), and a crippling storm surge of 4-6 meters (14-20 feet) are all likely near the landfall point of Phailin which is expected across northeastern India on Saturday.
Anyone residing in the states of Odisha or eastern Andhra Pradesh is encouraged to take proper precautions and prepare for life-threatening conditions.
While the Western Pacific Ocean had produced 24 named tropical cyclones so far this year, the Northern Indian Ocean has only seen one named tropical cyclone until Phailin.
The combination of very warm ocean waters and relatively low wind shear will aid in both development and the continued strengthening of this tropical cyclone through Friday.
A track toward the northwest is expected and Phailin will churn toward northeast India through Friday with further strengthening expected. Phailin has the potential to strengthen into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane or a super typhoon prior to landfall.
In the Indian Ocean, all storms that reach tropical storm strength are referred to as tropical cyclones and they retain that name regardless of how strong they become. Once they reach the intensity of a hurricane or typhoon, they are referred to as "severe tropical cyclones."
Image courtesy of NOAA from Severe Tropical Cyclone Phailin taken Thursday Night, local time
This powerful tropical cyclone is then expected to thrash eastern India, specifically in an area from Visakhapatnam to Brahmapur later Friday through Saturday. This area is home to millions of people, and it appears likely that a portion of this area will face life-threatening conditions this weekend.
After making landfall in northeastern India on Saturday, Phailin will track northwestward through interior India and weaken Sunday into Monday. However, heavy rain of up to several inches could still fall well inland from the coastline causing some flooding through Monday.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/india-facing-tropical-cyclone/186118840 -
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It seems Phalin has gone through an eyewall replacement. ADT estimated pressure went up to 934mb at 10am this morning, but now it's back gaining strength again, down to 919mb as the storm structure improves on satellite. Cloud tops estimated at -82.01, colder than any time previously.
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JTWC 1500Z advisory has the winds at 145 KTS (gusts to 170) at midnight, and at mid-day tomorrow, 130 KTS (gusts 160) not far short of landfall.
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Latest forecast from Dr Masters. The only good news is that it is forecast to make landfall in an area not as low lying as where the 1999 cyclone hit, so even though the surge may be as severe it won't extend as far inland.Forecast for Phailin
Phailin is likely to be the strongest tropical cyclone to affect India in fourteen years, since the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone. The models are in tight agreement that Phailin will make landfall in Northeast India on Saturday between 09 - 15 UTC about 100 miles to the southwest of where the 1999 cyclone hit. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is predicting that a storm surge of up to 3.5 meters (eleven feet) will hit along a swath a coast to the right of where the center makes landfall. I expect that this is an underestimate, since the 1999 Odisha Cyclone brought a storm surge of 5.9 meters (19 feet) to the coast, and Phailin is larger in areal extent and just as strong. The region of the coast where Phailin is expected to hit is not as low-lying, though, which should keep the death toll due to storm surge much lower compared to the 1999 Odisha Cyclone, where more than 70% of the deaths occurred due to the storm surge. Deforestation of the coastal mangroves in the storm surge zone was associated with increased death toll in that storm, according to Das and Vincent (2009), who concluded, "villages with wider mangroves between them and the coast experienced significantly fewer deaths than ones with narrower or no mangroves.". I expect that Phailin will weaken slightly before hitting the coast, due to interaction with land, and hit as a Category 4 storm with winds of 145 - 155 mph. The 1999 Odisha Cyclone hit land with top winds of 155 mph.
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