House Prices in Dublin South

gaius c

Horrid Henry wrote: »

If there are such properties, there's a reason why the yield's so high...

You asked where such yields were possible and he told you...

In the context of seeking yield that isn't available in interest rates (and the ongoing risk of Cypress-like interventions), ploughing your money into D15 apartments wouldn't seem all that risky a play.

It'll keep going until the great black hole of debt has swallowed their money as well and then the property market will finally have to stand on it's own rickety legs.

ted1

Horrid Henry wrote: »

If there are such properties, there's a reason why the yield's so high...

lots of welfare tenants who can't get mortgages and the council pay their rent, keeping the rent artifically high.

lots of other people who don't want mortgage or can't get one. competing againest council tenants.

handlemaster

lima wrote: »

Apartment's are risky though, prices will be the first to lose value when they start getting repossessed. Also you have all the 2005/2006/2007 buyers of apartments who have 1 or 2 kids now and are trading up. Rathmines/Ranelagh is the best bet but apartments there are tiny & expensive. Other newer ones in the city centre (e.g GCD) will cost you up to almost 3k p.a in management fee's. North inner city is cheap but you will probably have difficult tenants (transient foreign workers etc.)

My 2c from sitting on the fence waiting for a'normal market' to resume :rolleyes:

If you can buy now why would you wait. I dont think there's a 10% drop coming.

gaius c

Just to show what happens to markets when false floors are put in and folk desperate for yield pile in...

lima

handlemaster wrote: »

If you can buy now why would you wait. I dont think there's a 10% drop coming.

There is a severe restriction in stock availability and what the market offers is in my opinion of very low quality so I do not think it is value for money.

I do agree though that through vested interests manipulating the market there could be an increase, especially with the latest savings manipulation of raising DIRT.

Personally I am not committed to this country and have reservations committing to it unless I get value for money. If not I will happily hold off as I have overseas options. I'm probably alone in this situation though so I have a 'plan b' if panic buying bubble mentality 'prices me out of the market'.

handlemaster

gaius c wrote: »

Just to show what happens to markets when false floors are put in and folk desperate for yield pile in...

If you don't buy when yields are good when do you buy ? Sit on the fence your going to lose anyhow. At least with property the place is giving cash flow and some profit. In my opinion people went off the top and then back again. It might not be absolutely perfect now but its there or there abouts and for the investor if you hold out you lose because the rent between now and defined turning point will be covered by your return. people are looking for strong growth figures in the print by then you will pay a lot more up front. With absolute or close to certainty comes higher costs.

gaius c

handlemaster wrote: »

If you don't buy when yields are good when do you buy ? Sit on the fence your going to lose anyhow. At least with property the place is giving cash flow and some profit. In my opinion people went off the top and then back again. It might not be absolutely perfect now but its there or there abouts and for the investor if you hold out you lose because the rent between now and defined turning point will be covered by your return. people are looking for strong growth figures in the print by then you will pay a lot more up front. With absolute or close to certainty comes higher costs.

Hold onto your cash = "your going to lose anyhow"
So anybody saving for a deposit can't buy a house because house prices are increasing faster than their ability to save and the property market becomes a "investor/speculator only" zone. That's how the property bubble started and popped in the first place.

Loss of deposits is really only a big issue for people with large deposits. Everybody else will manage just fine in a Cypress scenario.
Yields are high because investors are aware that there are high risks associated with Irish property, something that you wave away as inconvenient truth. If prices can jump 10% in a year, they can just as easily fall the same amount in this broken market.

I think you might have a position here that is influencing your line of thought.

desertcircus

handlemaster wrote: »

I don't see for the property investor what the advantages are of holding off. Prices are very unlikely to drop much further and rents been good its a one way bet in dublin now. The rest o the country is a diff story

Dublin prices in a single specific class have increased slightly after falling by half, in a situation where the number of mortgages issued is shrinking year on year and up to 40% of transactions are on a cash basis. I wouldn't be so sanguine about price.

jmayo

In my opinion the country's proeprty market is still very dysfunctional and in no way a normal market.

1. Necessary Repossessions and Bank Losses.
We have huge amount of mortgages (both investor and residential) in default that in a normally functioning market would result in repossessions.
This hasn't happened and the losses that the banks must surely take to some extent have not been truly realised.
Those losses will have to be compensated for by higher future bank charges (intrest rates on future mortgage lending included) and taxpayer funds.
This will have a huge bearing on future lending capability.

3. Investors and Rental Market.
We have reasonable investor yields in certain areas and investors with the wherewithal are entering the market.
The areas where investors will buy is really limited to certain sections of the country.
A huge chunk of the rental market is actually supported by the state i.e. the taxpayers.
We have a big state sponsored property investment scheme.

4. Limited Buyers Pool.
Where are the future buyers going to come from ?
A lot of our late teens and twenty somethings are facing unemployment and emigration.
The ones lucky enough to get jobs in this country are going to face higher taxes, lower incomes (and especially in areas of the public sector where the unions have guaranteed they pay the piper for their older colleagues) than there their predesessors of the last 20 years.
It will take them longer to gather the despoists necessary in future for property purchase.
Remember not everyone is working for Google, Facebook, Dell, Pfizer, etc.

The amount of people capable of trading up has hugely decreased as they are many stuck in negative equity at the same time as their earning power has drastically decreased.

Another often forgotten section of people in trouble are those in the older generations who actually hocked themselves to get their kids on the property ladder or decided to become property investors themselves (sometimes as a pension alternative) both here and overseas.

It might not be a large chunk of people, but I think it is often forgotten about in the rush to just label those in trouble as being the poor first time buyers who "desperately had to buy a home and had no choice but to buy overpriced crud."

What happens to these people will have bearing on a part of the market.

Parts of Dublin and maybe some other towns/cities have had price rebounds due to fact that they are the best bets, there is limited supply of good qulity housing and they are the most attractive locations both for investors and buyers who are reasonably well off.
As far as I can see the rest of the market is going nowhere.

Mustard1972

I read a great thread here on boards called Darren's property portfolio. It gives the raw edge of property investment and he seems to tell it like it is.
I havent got the link now but search for it.

gaius c

jmayo wrote: »

In my opinion the country's proeprty market is still very dysfunctional and in no way a normal market.

1. Necessary Repossessions and Bank Losses.
We have huge amount of mortgages (both investor and residential) in default that in a normally functioning market would result in repossessions.
This hasn't happened and the losses that the banks must surely take to some extent have not been truly realised.
Those losses will have to be compensated for by higher future bank charges (intrest rates on future mortgage lending included) and taxpayer funds.
This will have a huge bearing on future lending capability.

3. Investors and Rental Market.
We have reasonable investor yields in certain areas and investors with the wherewithal are entering the market.
The areas where investors will buy is really limited to certain sections of the country.
A huge chunk of the rental market is actually supported by the state i.e. the taxpayers.
We have a big state sponsored property investment scheme.

4. Limited Buyers Pool.
Where are the future buyers going to come from ?
A lot of our late teens and twenty somethings are facing unemployment and emigration.
The ones lucky enough to get jobs in this country are going to face higher taxes, lower incomes (and especially in areas of the public sector where the unions have guaranteed they pay the piper for their older colleagues) than there their predesessors of the last 20 years.
It will take them longer to gather the despoists necessary in future for property purchase.
Remember not everyone is working for Google, Facebook, Dell, Pfizer, etc.

The amount of people capable of trading up has hugely decreased as they are many stuck in negative equity at the same time as their earning power has drastically decreased.

Another often forgotten section of people in trouble are those in the older generations who actually hocked themselves to get their kids on the property ladder or decided to become property investors themselves (sometimes as a pension alternative) both here and overseas.

It might not be a large chunk of people, but I think it is often forgotten about in the rush to just label those in trouble as being the poor first time buyers who "desperately had to buy a home and had no choice but to buy overpriced crud."

What happens to these people will have bearing on a part of the market.

Parts of Dublin and maybe some other towns/cities have had price rebounds due to fact that they are the best bets, there is limited supply of good qulity housing and they are the most attractive locations both for investors and buyers who are reasonably well off.
As far as I can see the rest of the market is going nowhere.

2 = PROFIT???

Zamboni

Mustard1972 wrote: »

I read a great thread here on boards called Darren's property portfolio. It gives the raw edge of property investment and he seems to tell it like it is.
I havent got the link now but search for it.

Raw edge?
It is thread with a guy who has capital anyway paying interest only on apartments with no factoring in of purchase and selling costs (legal, surveying, stamp duty etc.)
I am not sure of the benefit

Frank Lee Midere

desertcircus wrote: »

Dublin prices in a single specific class have increased slightly after falling by half, in a situation where the number of mortgages issued is shrinking year on year and up to 40% of transactions are on a cash basis. I wouldn't be so sanguine about price.

I heard 60%. The Dublin property market is like the pricing of AIB, which is now the most valuable bank on the world. With about .2% shares not in government ownership demand is high and supply is low.

It's really worth nothing.

Mustard1972

Zamboni wrote: »

Raw edge?
It is thread with a guy who has capital anyway paying interest only on apartments with no factoring in of purchase and selling costs (legal, surveying, stamp duty etc.)
I am not sure of the benefit

You obviously read a different thread to the one I did.
The guy looks to know what he is doing and answered any questions asked of him. As far as I could see he gave a complete, warts and all rundown of what he was spending and making.

josip

ted1 wrote: »

Heres some examples from the property price register. these houses are all the same an in th esame estate. you can clearly see that the 2013 prices are up 50% on the 2012 prices

26/08/2013 €353,657.00 50 Bayview Drive, Killiney
17/06/2013 €287,000.00 6 Bayview Rise, Killiney
11/02/2013 €305,000.00 5 Bayview Green, Killiney
27/09/2012 €240,000.00 24 BAYVIEW CRESCENT, killiney, Dublin
10/09/2012 €222,000.00 6 Bayview Lawns, Killiney, Co. Dublin
21/08/2012 €197,500.00 1 Bayview Crescent, Killiney, Dublin
17/08/2012 €230,000.00 15 Bayview Close, Killiney, Co. Dublin, Dublin
23/07/2012 €207,500.00 10 Bayview Crescent, Killiney, Co Dublin, Dublin
24/07/2012 €210,000.00 40 Baywiew Lawns, Killiney, Dublin
17/07/2012 €251,000.00 17 Bayview Park, Killiney, Dublin

D3PO wrote: »

you cant see that clearly. You cant base an increase on just one house 50 bayview drive.

What your saying is absolutely ridiculous. Your only short of saying house prices in this estate are up 25% between june and august of this year :rolleyes::rolleyes:

One more sale recently added on the register for Bayview supporting Ted1's position.

02/10/2013€405,000.0023 Bayview Drive, Killiney

ted1

josip wrote: »

One more sale recently added on the register for Bayview supporting Ted1's position.

02/10/2013€405,000.0023 Bayview Drive, Killiney

That may be one of the few 4 beds. I'll check later. There's a 3 bed on daft guiding 355k let's watch it

Glenbhoy

23 Bayview drive is a 4 bed 1238 sq ft (south west facing).

50 Bayview drive is 3 bed 947 sq ft (no mention of aspect, so i guess it's not south or west).

On a price per sq ft basis, 50 Bayview drive shows us that prices have dropped by 11% in the last month alone, I think the mini-bubble has burst guys:eek::eek:

ted1

Glenbhoy wrote: »

23 Bayview drive is a 4 bed 1238 sq ft (south west facing).

50 Bayview drive is 3 bed 947 sq ft (no mention of aspect, so i guess it's not south or west).

On a price per sq ft basis, 50 Bayview drive shows us that prices have dropped by 11% in the last month alone, I think the mini-bubble has burst guys:eek::eek:

Let's see what it sells for, there's a hideous extension and estate agents can't measure houses properly. So ignore the sq ft.

Its also in one of the less desirable side if the estate.

Let's wait till its on the ppr. That's where all the other prices came from and house are generally exceeding list price,

That 4 bed sold a good time ago, there must been a problem
That delayed the sale/ registration so the price could be based on previous months

Glenbhoy

ted1 wrote: »

Let's see what it sells for, there's a hideous extension and estate agents can't measure houses properly. So ignore the sq ft.

Its also in one of the less desirable side if the estate.

Let's wait till its on the ppr. That's where all the other prices came from and house are generally exceeding list price,

That 4 bed sold a good time ago, there must been a problem
That delayed the sale/ registration so the price could be based on previous months

I took it that the figures quoted were from the ppr.

Re the sale agreed months ago, I think that's exactly the same situation across Dublin. I know of several properties which went agreed in Feb/Mar and only closed in Sept. Therefore, I think the ppr is showing us the exuberance of the first half of the year at present, it'll be very interesting to see how the next 6 months go after the initial wave of cash ready, rent fatigued buyers evaporates.

josip

Glenbhoy wrote: »

I took it that the figures quoted were from the ppr.

Yep, it was from the ppr.

ted1

Glenbhoy wrote: »

I took it that the figures quoted were from the ppr.

Re the sale agreed months ago, I think that's exactly the same situation across Dublin. I know of several properties which went agreed in Feb/Mar and only closed in Sept. Therefore, I think the ppr is showing us the exuberance of the first half of the year at present, it'll be very interesting to see how the next 6 months go after the initial wave of cash ready, rent fatigued buyers evaporates.

The 4 bed doesn't compare like for like I wouldn't base any thing on iit

Glenbhoy

ted1 wrote: »

The 4 bed doesn't compare like for like I wouldn't base any thing on iit

I wasn't being completely serious with my post Ted, but, are you saying that the difference in price per sq ft can be attributed to the fact that the 4 bed is in a slightly less desirable location on the street than the 3 bed? Or that the 4 bed went sale agreed early in the year, whilst the 3 bed just closed very recently?

There are obviously many factors to consider, the availability of finance being one of the key factors and it may just be that the amount of buyers who can finance 400K is significantly less than the amount who can finance 350K.
Internal decor and the amount of work which may be required after purchase is another major consideration, although both properties look similar in that regard.

As I also mentioned, aspect does seem to be better for the 4 bed house, at least in that it's not mentioned at all for the 3 bed.

I would be interested to know your thoughts on the apparent discrepancy though.

Mustard1972

Jesus I want to buy a house in Bayview now after this thread.

ted1

Glenbhoy wrote: »

I wasn't being completely serious with my post Ted, but, are you saying that the difference in price per sq ft can be attributed to the fact that the 4 bed is in a slightly less desirable location on the street than the 3 bed? Or that the 4 bed went sale agreed early in the year, whilst the 3 bed just closed very recently?

There are obviously many factors to consider, the availability of finance being one of the key factors and it may just be that the amount of buyers who can finance 400K is significantly less than the amount who can finance 350K.
Internal decor and the amount of work which may be required after purchase is another major consideration, although both properties look similar in that regard.

As I also mentioned, aspect does seem to be better for the 4 bed house, at least in that it's not mentioned at all for the 3 bed.

I would be interested to know your thoughts on the apparent discrepancy though.

I think that it doesn't cost much to decorate a house and the templates are all the same.

I feel that there's less people with over 400k than there is with over 300k but it's only one property do to early to tell.

Aspect doesn't cone to much into it, the 4 bed has sun in the front of the house in the morning and in the back from midday. The three bed has sun in the back most of the day.

Lets see what the three bed goes for. There's a WWTP behind the estate and it's closer to the 3 bed

Glenbhoy

ted1 wrote: »

I think that it doesn't cost much to decorate a house and the templates are all the same.

I feel that there's less people with over 400k than there is with over 300k but it's only one property do to early to tell.

Aspect doesn't cone to much into it, the 4 bed has sun in the front of the house in the morning and in the back from midday. The three bed has sun in the back most of the day.

Lets see what the three bed goes for. There's a WWTP behind the estate and it's closer to the 3 bed

The three bed went for €353,657, so it was 10% more expensive per sq ft (according to the myhome measurements).

Zamboni

Thread should be called House Prices in Bayview, Killiney :pac:

Santa Cruz

Mustard1972 wrote: »

Jesus I want to buy a house in Bayview now after this thread.

Just ask Ted1 which is the "less desirable side" before you buy
(probably the one next door to him)

ted1

i don't live there, I used to for 3 years, just used it as a reference as i know the area and there's been plenty of activity with regards sales.

jmayo

So after all this we can now arrive at the conclusion that house prices have at least risen in Bayview in Kiliney.

From what i can see those houses are nothing special, all appear to have be the standard 80s build that you see throughout the country.

The only thing special about them is there postal address.

Oh and also their proximty to the Shanganagh Sewage Treatment Plant that is just across the railway line from them.
I suppose the wind is usually westerly so not so bad.

gaius c

Zamboni wrote: »

Thread should be called House Prices in Bayview, Killiney :pac:

Prices are soaring there. If you don't buy now, you'll never be able to and might...god forbid...have to live in a different part of Killiney!