A Slow Journey to Faster Times

Calvin Johnson

Runners guilt

yaboya1

So it's almost time for me to finally decide on my race strategy for Seville next week. My original goal of breaking 3:30 is far too soft, but how soft and how much more aggressive I can afford to be is what I must be clear on before I set out.

I'm very confident I can beat 3:10 and pretty confident I can go sub 3:05 (which would qualify me for Boston & London). Obviously a sub 3 hour marathon is a huge milestone in any runner's career and it's definitely something I would love to do (if not next week, then in the near future).

Based on my 10k time last Sunday, McMillan predicts a 3:03 marathon. Yet against my HM time two weeks ago it predicts 3:01. Since the longer race is probably a more realistic guide, it is agonisingly close to the magical 3 hours but still above it nonetheless. It could be argued though that the further I go, the faster I get as the 10k time is slower than I should be capable of against the HM time? It could also be argued that a gruelling marathon schedule has me more fatigued than I realise and off the back of a two week taper I could be ready to run quicker in Seville. Allowing for adrenaline etc. on the day I might just be capable of running fast enough to get me below the 3 hour barrier. BUT I just don't know, and the evidence on paper is telling me I can't (yet).

I was originally thinking I should try to run the first half in 1:30, then step up the pace slightly if I felt I was able to ensure a sub 3. However, if I was starting to struggle I could ease off the pace as I'd still have five minutes in hand for a BQ. I spoke to Krusty on Sunday and asked his opinion. He suggested running the first half in 1:32, then pushing on from there if I could. This would guarantee I haven't gone out too fast, meaning I should be able to run a negative split (which I've never done before), a sub 3:05 and if I've enough in the tank at that stage, a realistic push for a sub 3. I have huge respect for his running experience/knowledge & after mulling it over for a couple of days I think this is by far the most sensible strategy and is almost certainly what I will go with. So the ultimate goal will be sub 3:05, meaning I won't be disappointed if I don't get under 3 hours. The last thing I want to do is run 3:0x and not be happy. If I did go sub 3, I'd obviously be absolutely ecstatic. Achieving the BQ would open up two more majors to me and gives me 8 months to knock another five minutes off my time in Dublin.

Just wondering what anyone else thinks?

menoscemo

yaboya1 wrote: »

Just wondering what anyone else thinks?

That sounds like a very solid strategy. If you really are in sub 3 shape you'll be able to pick up the pace in the 2nd half however if you go for for sub 3 over the first half you might end up with 3:10+++.
I think with one more marathon training cycle it will just be a matter of how much you go under 3 but at the moment you are probably just a touch short of it tbh.

yaboya1

menoscemo wrote: »

That sounds like a very solid strategy. If you really are in sub 3 shape you'll be able to pick up the pace in the 2nd half however if you go for for sub 3 over the first half you might end up with 3:10+++.
I think with one more marathon training cycle it will just be a matter of how much you go under 3 but at the moment you are probably just a touch short of it tbh.

Yes, I agree. I just don't think I'm quite ready for a sub 3 attempt yet, but if I am it should still be achievable off that first half.

Thanks for the response. That's 2-0 to 1:32

ThebitterLemon

yaboya1 wrote: »

So it's almost time for me to finally decide on my race strategy for Seville next week. My original goal of breaking 3:30 is far too soft, but how soft and how much more aggressive I can afford to be is what I must be clear on before I set out.

I'm very confident I can beat 3:10 and pretty confident I can go sub 3:05 (which would qualify me for Boston & London). Obviously a sub 3 hour marathon is a huge milestone in any runner's career and it's definitely something I would love to do (if not next week, then in the near future).

Based on my 10k time last Sunday, McMillan predicts a 3:03 marathon. Yet against my HM time two weeks ago it predicts 3:01. Since the longer race is probably a more realistic guide, it is agonisingly close to the magical 3 hours but still above it nonetheless. It could be argued though that the further I go, the faster I get as the 10k time is slower than I should be capable of against the HM time? It could also be argued that a gruelling marathon schedule has me more fatigued than I realise and off the back of a two week taper I could be ready to run quicker in Seville. Allowing for adrenaline etc. on the day I might just be capable of running fast enough to get me below the 3 hour barrier. BUT I just don't know, and the evidence on paper is telling me I can't (yet).

I was originally thinking I should try to run the first half in 1:30, then step up the pace slightly if I felt I was able to ensure a sub 3. However, if I was starting to struggle I could ease off the pace as I'd still have five minutes in hand for a BQ. I spoke to Krusty on Sunday and asked his opinion. He suggested running the first half in 1:32, then pushing on from there if I could. This would guarantee I haven't gone out too fast, meaning I should be able to run a negative split (which I've never done before), a sub 3:05 and if I've enough in the tank at that stage, a realistic push for a sub 3. I have huge respect for his running experience/knowledge & after mulling it over for a couple of days I think this is by far the most sensible strategy and is almost certainly what I will go with. So the ultimate goal will be sub 3:05, meaning I won't be disappointed if I don't get under 3 hours. The last thing I want to do is run 3:0x and not be happy. If I did go sub 3, I'd obviously be absolutely ecstatic. Achieving the BQ would open up two more majors to me and gives me 8 months to knock another five minutes off my time in Dublin.

Just wondering what anyone else thinks?

I usually steer clear of proffering advise as I'm not qualified to dispense it but I'll give you some personal perspectives.

Every time I have done a PB or gone sub 3.20 I have done a negative split, sometimes considerable negative splits.

I have had some horrendous races where I have ended up walking by going out to hard too early. In Vienna I was going great and on for a PB but when I got to mile 22, I literally came to a shuddering halt and walked home. Soul destroying.

While you're in great shape and could go sub 3, there's a danger that you'll blow up and ruin your race.

Sure you're only a young bull take your time and enjoy the voyage to the sub 3 but take the opportunity if it presents itself later on in Seville.

TbL

ThePiedPiper

Its a hard one to call Yaboya1, but my hunch would be that you'd be better off going conservative, and if things are going well, pick it up in the last 6-8 miles. In Seville 2011, I ran 1:30:00 for the first half, and 1:28:23 for the second half. On the other hand, in my 5th and 6th marathons, I ran 1:28 and 1:27 first halves only to finish in 3:00:20 and 3:05 respectively. If sub-3 is there for you, it'll come even if you run a 1:32 half, whereas a 1:29 half might be enough to mess you up.

Don't get hung up on it though, I can't possibly stress the utter disappointment I felt when I ran that 3:05 in Berlin 2008 off the 1:27 first half, without a doubt, the lowest ever moment of my running career. If you can avoid that sort of situation by running conservatively, do it. The sub-3 will come, unquestionably. Your training has been excellent, be patient in the race, and if needs be, after it.

yaboya1

That's 4-0 to 1:32.
I was almost decided anyway but the back up here has convinced me.
Running a negative split will also be a big deal to me, but only in the right way if you get what I mean. I'm not going to run a two hour first half just to guarantee one.

menoscemo

yaboya1 wrote: »

Yes, I agree. I just don't think I'm quite ready for a sub 3 attempt yet, but if I am it should still be achievable off that first half.

This is the problem; If you don't really believe it you have no chance because when the going gets tough you really need belief.
Last year I went into London (off a similar half time to you) with a very outside chance of sub3.
I planned to and ran 1:31 first half to give me a chance of sub 3 but guarantee a PB (not blow my race ).
As it turned out I was lucky as I just scraped under 3:05 even though I felt like I was jogging until 18 miles. I just about managed to avoid cramping up over the last 8 miles by the skin of my teeth. I reckon If I had ran 1:29 first half I'd have ended up walking the last 8 miles!!

yaboya1

RunForestRun wrote: »

Its a hard one to call Yaboya1, but my hunch would be that you'd be better off going conservative, and if things are going well, pick it up in the last 6-8 miles. In Seville 2011, I ran 1:30:00 for the first half, and 1:28:23 for the second half. On the other hand, in my 5th and 6th marathons, I ran 1:28 and 1:27 first halves only to finish in 3:00:20 and 3:05 respectively. If sub-3 is there for you, it'll come even if you run a 1:32 half, whereas a 1:29 half might be enough to mess you up.

Don't get hung up on it though, I can't possibly stress the utter disappointment I felt when I ran that 3:05 in Berlin 2008 off the 1:27 first half, without a doubt, the lowest ever moment of my running career. If you can avoid that sort of situation by running conservatively, do it. The sub-3 will come, unquestionably. Your training has been excellent, be patient in the race, and if needs be, after it.

The disappointment you speak of is exactly what I want to avoid. If I run 3:04, it will be a 30min PB. I don't want to be frowning after that! I have to remember that I didn't believe I could EVER run 3:15 when I started this plan. It's only because my training has gone so well that I'm even contemplating these sorts of times. And like you say, it will come if I'm patient. Thanks for the feedback.

yaboya1

menoscemo wrote: »

This is the problem; If you don't really believe it you have no chance because when the going gets tough you really need belief.
Last year I went into London (off a similar half time to you) with a very outside chance of sub3.
I planned to and ran 1:31 first half to give me a chance of sub 3 but guarantee a PB (not blow my race ).
As it turned out I was lucky as I just scraped under 3:05 even though I felt like I was jogging until 18 miles. I just about managed to avoid cramping up over the last 8 miles by the skin of my teeth. I reckon If I had ran 1:29 first half I'd have ended up walking the last 8 miles!!

Agreed, again. But if I run a sub 3:05, I will believe I can go sub 3 in Dublin

statss

Personally, I would do the first half a little slower and then go for broke in the last 6 miles. A negative experience could scare you unduly. Keep it positive.

Calvin Johnson

Looks like it's decided.

Gavlor

FWIW my marathons to date have been 3.26; 3.09 (2012) 3.01; 3.00 (2013)

I figured there was no point bothering with 3.05 for limerick last year, did a half arsed makey up training programme and finished limerick in 3.01. The last few miles were hell. That was a 1.29 half and if I'm being honest it took me a while to get over it physically. Since then I've had 2 or 3 stupid injuries.

Was in better shape for dublin and felt stronger than limerick for the entire race only for my hammer to pop with a couple of miles to go.

I'm with the lads, I'd def use seville for 3.05 and it'll set you up for an enjoyable sub 3 in dublin.

If you go too hard this time round it could really dent your confidence or cause silly injury problems like I've encountered.

yaboya1

statss wrote: »

Personally, I would do the first half a little slower and then go for broke in the last 6 miles. A negative experience could scare you unduly. Keep it positive.

Gavlor wrote: »

FWIW my marathons to date have been 3.26; 3.09 (2012) 3.01; 3.00 (2013)

I figured there was no point bothering with 3.05 for limerick last year, did a half arsed makey up training programme and finished limerick in 3.01. The last few miles were hell. That was a 1.29 half and if I'm being honest it took me a while to get over it physically. Since then I've had 2 or 3 stupid injuries.

Was in better shape for dublin and felt stronger than limerick for the entire race only for my hammer to pop with a couple of miles to go.

I'm with the lads, I'd def use seville for 3.05 and it'll set you up for an enjoyable sub 3 in dublin.

If you go too hard this time round it could really dent your confidence or cause silly injury problems like I've encountered.

That's 6-0. I'm convinced.
Really appreciate all the feedback.

p.s. I read your Dublin race report. Agonising!

Gavlor

yaboya1 wrote: »

That's 6-0. I'm convinced.
Really appreciate all the feedback.

p.s. I read your Dublin race report. Agonising!

This thread has brought back some bad memories........


Now where is that whiskey....

ger664

I would leave deciding on race strategy until later next week. Temps in Seville are in the mid teens in the morning at the moment (taper madness looking up weather sites). While normally shouldn't present a problem, but after running/training in the rain/cold and wind of the last two months it may have an impact on the body towards the later end of the race.

You might be better just going out for sub 3:05 a time you would have gladly taken last October.

yaboya1

ger664 wrote: »

You might be better just going out for sub 3:05 a time you would have gladly taken last October.

I think this is definitely the way I'm going to go. Everyone is so helpful here :-).

AuldManKing

Agree with all the comments.

Your starting goal was 3:30. Then 3:10 was mentioned, 3:05 may be realistic. Sub 3 is a chance.
If you think Sub 3 is a real chance and don't achieve it, will you consider the marathon a failure?

You're going great in training, it be a shame to achieve 3:05/3:10 and have you disappointed with it.

What's for sure is that if you run Dublin, you'll be in great shape and much more confident of beating sub 3.

yaboya1

AuldManKing wrote: »

Agree with all the comments.

Your starting goal was 3:30. Then 3:10 was mentioned, 3:05 may be realistic. Sub 3 is a chance.
If you think Sub 3 is a real chance and don't achieve it, will you consider the marathon a failure?

You're going great in training, it be a shame to achieve 3:05/3:10 and have you disappointed with it.

What's for sure is that if you run Dublin, you'll be in great shape and much more confident of beating sub 3.

I agree with them all myself. Just wanted to gauge opinion to help me make a final decision. Don't want to feel I was too conservative, but equally don't want to shoot too high. Thanks for the response. I appreciate it.

yaboya1

Wednesday 12th February (Day 73/84) - 7m (GA) with 8 x 100m strides
7 miles @ 8:30p/m average. Strides (19:05, 19:01, 18:03, 19:74, 21:28, 20:06, 19:56, 17:59)

Got my core work that I postponed from yesterday done before I went out today. Wasn't in the best of form when I did get out for some reason. Just felt heavy and unfit, but that improved as the miles went by and I was fine by the end of the strides. Ran those in a much more controlled fashion than I usually do which felt good. The fifth and sixth are a bit skewed though. The fifth because it was straight into the very strong wind we had today, and the sixth because a dog ran right out in front of me after about 70m almost bringing me to a standstill. Last V02 Max session tomorrow, then I'm on easy paced miles until the big day .


Splits:

Mile 1 - 8:32
Mile 2 - 8:32
Mile 3 - 8:26
Mile 4 - 8:25
Mile 5 - 8:32
Mile 6 - 8:28
Mile 7 - 8:33

yaboya1

Thursday 13th Febuary (Day 74/84) - 8m (with 3 x 1600m @ VO2Max)

2m warm-up

3 x 1600m splits (with 3:00min recovery)

1 - 5:54
2 - 5:56
3 - 6:08

2m cool down

Plan here was to keep the three intervals below six minutes. Although I didn't manage it on the last one, that's the one I'm most proud of as it was straight into the ridiculous wind that's blowing outside. It will be nice to run on a calm day if that ever happens again. Maybe next week in Seville?

belcarra

Hey P,
Great training cycle almost through to its completion - well done so far!

On the race itself I would just comment that 3:05 should be your goal too. However, I'd be even more cautious than a few of the other guys as I know you have struggled to bring the faster training through to race day in the past.
Having said that your Chicago time was great considering you had 7 weeks out with injury! My only concern would be over the final few miles and holding pace through to ensure sub 3:05.
I think any faster may just be a little beyond reach at this stage (but no doubt you will nail it next time out - just a matter of timing really!) and that even 3:05 will represent an enormous improvement.
Best to run a true race but still keep the momentum up for the rest of the year rather than overcook yourself next week and suffer getting back into the rhythm of things over the next few months.

Mind you, I still wouldn't be too surprised to hear you finish with a 2:5x! Best of luck!

yaboya1

belcarra wrote: »

Hey P,
Great training cycle almost through to its completion - well done so far!

On the race itself I would just comment that 3:05 should be your goal too. However, I'd be even more cautious than a few of the other guys as I know you have struggled to bring the faster training through to race day in the past.
Having said that your Chicago time was great considering you had 7 weeks out with injury! My only concern would be over the final few miles and holding pace through to ensure sub 3:05.
I think any faster may just be a little beyond reach at this stage (but no doubt you will nail it next time out - just a matter of timing really!) and that even 3:05 will represent an enormous improvement.
Best to run a true race but still keep the momentum up for the rest of the year rather than overcook yourself next week and suffer getting back into the rhythm of things over the next few months.

Mind you, I still wouldn't be too surprised to hear you finish with a 2:5x! Best of luck!

Thanks John. I understand what you're saying re: later part of the race, but I've never had my training go as well before so I'm pretty confident I can hold that pace (3:05). Agree with everything else you say though. Thanks for the support.

yaboya1

Friday 14th February (Day 75/84) - 5m Recovery (with 6 x 100m strides)
5 miles @ 9:06p/m average. Strides (19:18, 21:13, 19:06, 20:00, 17:27, 17:66)

Didn't fancy going out for this one at all today. Wasn't feeling very good and the horrendous weather I could see out the window didn't make it any more appealing. I eventually hit the road after I noticed a break in the rain around 8pm. Glad I did now as I feel much better for it, especially after the strides. I have the same workout down to be completed next Friday, but as I'll be travelling all day long I'll either do it on Thursday or give it a miss altogether. I doubt it will make any difference at this stage.


Splits:

Mile 1 - 9:19
Mile 2 - 8:45
Mile 3 - 9:11
Mile 4 - 9:07
Mile 5 - 9:09

Calvin Johnson

Awful weather today. Just awful.

yaboya1

Saturday 15th February (Day 76/84) - Rest/Cross Training

No running today. Spent the morning volunteering as a marshal at the St Anne's parkrun instead.

yaboya1

Sunday 16th February (Day 77/84) - 12m @ M/L Pace
12 miles @ 8:36p/m average

Not much to say about this really. Just delighted to get it out of the way as I'm now out of training mode and into race mode, counting down the hours until next Sunday!


Splits:

Mile 1 - 7:51
Mile 2 - 9:00
Mile 3 - 8:52
Mile 4 - 8:51
Mile 5 - 8:29
Mile 6 - 8:58
Mile 7 - 8:40
Mile 8 - 8:43
Mile 9 - 8:26
Mile 10 - 8:41
Mile 11 - 8:26
Mile 12 - 8:19

Calvin Johnson

Did you feel like you could run forever?

yaboya1

Calvin Johnson wrote: »

Did you feel like you could run forever?

I could have kept going but had no interest in doing so. Just wanted to tick this off the list and get ready for race week.

yaboya1

Monday 17th February (Day 78/84) - Rest/Cross Training

More stretching and core work this morning. Gave myself a good going over with the foam roller too. Left hip is still a bit stiff, so might have another go at that when I get home later. Feeling good otherwise apart from a little snivel which I'm sure I'll shake off in the next day or two.

yaboya1

Tuesday 18th February (Day 79/84) - 6m Recovery
6 miles @ 9:38p/m average

Took this very easily. Nice morning to be out there for a change.


Splits:

Mile 1 - 9:50
Mile 2 - 9:45
Mile 3 - 9:38
Mile 4 - 9:34
Mile 5 - 9:45
Mile 6 - 9:21

Gavlor

How are you feeling about Sunday??

yaboya1

Gavlor wrote: »

How are you feeling about Sunday??

I'm feeling very, very good. I could almost feel myself filling up with energy this morning. I stuck my head under a towel over a basin of water and Olbas Oil last night, which seems to have cured the little snivel I mentioned yesterday.

Gavlor

yaboya1 wrote: »

I'm feeling very, very good. I could almost feel myself filling up with energy this morning. I stuck my head under a towel over a basin of water and Olbas Oil last night, which seems to have cured the little snivel I mentioned yesterday.

Is there online tracking/race number??

I have a feeling you'll go aggressive!!

yaboya1

I'm not sure to be honest. I got an email from them the other day, but it's all in Spanish, so it's hard to decipher everything as it's not a language I speak.

I'll stick my bib number on here when I collect it on Saturday so anyone can follow me if there is tracking available. At the moment all I'm aware of is where the expo is taking place, and where and what time the race starts :pac:

belcarra

yaboya1 wrote: »

I'll stick my bib number on here when I collect it on Saturday so anyone can follow me if there is tracking available. At the moment all I'm aware of is where the expo is taking place, and where and what time the race starts :pac:

What? No pub sorted yet?!?!?:eek:

yaboya1

belcarra wrote: »

What? No pub sorted yet?!?!?:eek:

All in good time

ger664

belcarra wrote: »

What? No pub sorted yet?!?!?:eek:

That will be sorted. Have a few lined up already

yaboya1

Wednesday 19th February (Day 80/84) - 7m (with 2m @ MP)
7 miles @ 7:26p/m average

Another lovely morning for it again out there today. I'll take something like that on Sunday. Plan was to gradually warm up for the first four miles, do the two MP miles after that and then give myself the last mile to cool down. MP should be around 7min/mile, so I aimed to keep them just below that. Fairly happy with the result. Pretty comfortable all the way


Splits:

Mile 1 - 8:16
Mile 2 - 7:29
Mile 3 - 7:35
Mile 4 - 7:26
Mile 5 - 6:58
Mile 6 - 6:57
Mile 7 - 7:21

yaboya1

This page appears to provide coverage and tracking of the race on Sunday:

http://www.maratondesevilla.es/directo-maraton/#

My bib number is: 3450

AuldManKing

I'm interested in how you arrange a foreign trip for a marathon as I've never travelled for one before.

When do you fly out?
Checking in a bag or just carry on?
bring gels etc or get them over there?
Bring spare pair of runners or not?

menoscemo

I'll get in first and say best of Luck fro Saturday yaboya!!!

Will be Tracking you on Sunday...

yaboya1

AuldManKing wrote: »

I'm interested in how you arrange a foreign trip for a marathon as I've never travelled for one before.

When do you fly out?
Checking in a bag or just carry on?
bring gels etc or get them over there?
Bring spare pair of runners or not?

This will be my third foreign marathon and I've followed pretty much the same routine.

1. I've flown out on the Friday for all of them so far. Enough time to get settled in etc., but not too long to get bored as you can't do much pre-race anyway.

2. I would carry on for any European races as it's quicker, cheaper and I'm normally not hanging around long enough that I'd need a bigger bag. I was in Chicago for longer though and the check-in bag is part of the deal.

3. I bring gels with me just in case they don't have the one's I want at the expo. They normally do though, so it's probably unnecessary.

4. I've never brought spare runners. Should I?

overpronator

Any issues with getting Gels through security with the liquids limit? Did you pack them away or put them into the clear bags?

yaboya1

overpronator wrote: »

Any issues with getting Gels through security with the liquids limit? Did you pack them away or put them into the clear bags?

I can't remember having any problems, although Berlin 2011 was the last time I did this as I had them in my checked bag going to Chicago. Suppose I'll find out on Friday!

I'll have to check, but are gels larger than 100ml? (Just checked, they all seem to be no bigger than 60ml, so no problems going through security although I do think they need to be in those clear plastic bags)

menoscemo

overpronator wrote: »

Any issues with getting Gels through security with the liquids limit? Did you pack them away or put them into the clear bags?

Yeah as Yaboya says, just put them in clear plastic bags at securitty and no problems...

Itziger

Good luck in Sevilla man. Your goal is similar to mine [not that I'm doing any marathons for another 6 months] so I'll keep an eye on your progress. I also saw you post in the mad hatter world that is the Horse Racing forum. Not many from here who post there.

Just imagine you're Hurricane Fly swinging around that last bend with only the Hill to come. But you won't have a hill in the last 200mts. At least I hope you don't.

yaboya1

Itziger wrote: »

Good luck in Sevilla man. Your goal is similar to mine [not that I'm doing any marathons for another 6 months] so I'll keep an eye on your progress. I also saw you post in the mad hatter world that is the Horse Racing forum. Not many from here who post there.

Just imagine you're Hurricane Fly swinging around that last bend with only the Hill to come. But you won't have a hill in the last 200mts. At least I hope you don't.

Yeah, I love my racing. I'll pretend it's at Leopardstown as the hill is nowhere as severe and he's invincible there

*FWIW I think Our Conor might reverse the form with him in 3 weeks. Looks between the two of them to me.

Itziger

yaboya1 wrote: »

Yeah, I love my racing. I'll pretend it's at Leopardstown as the hill is nowhere as severe and he's invincible there

*FWIW I think Our Conor might reverse the form with him in 3 weeks. Looks between the two of them to me.

If HF doesn't win it, I'd like to see OC do it. That said, it looks like some of our lads will be running juiced if the last few days news is anything to go by. Wouldn't mind a shot of something myself at km 34!

Sevilla is a super town. Don't know if you know it or if you're staying on after the race but you can't go wrong with it anyway.

3:05 is the aim right? That was my aim in the last but I came home in 3:09 on the day. Hoping for 3:04 or 05 this year and maybe have a crack off sub3 next when I'll be turning the half century!

belcarra

Itziger wrote: »

3:05 is the aim right? That was my aim in the last but I came home in 3:09 on the day. Hoping for 3:04 or 05 this year and maybe have a crack off sub3 next when I'll be turning the half century!

Where are you running in Autumn Itzy?
Uno mas por Valencia??