THE MELBOURNE CUP

tomaussie

Hi Guys,

Anybody know where I can find ten year trends for this race.

It's the one race that I'd really like to back the winner of before I die.

G'day !

qc3

Melbourne up Pricewise.


Empire at 20-1 to end Godolphin Cup blues
There probably isn't a race anywhere in the world Godolphin would like to win more than the Emirates Melbourne Cup. They have come awfully close many times and this year they can put the record straight by winning it with Royal Empire, who has had the contest on his agenda all season.
Central Park, Give The Slip, Beekeeper and Crime Scene have all hit the frame for Godolphin and I think Royal Empire is a better horse than all those and comes into the race having been prepared for months now.
He looked very good when slamming Red Cadeaux in the Geoffrey Freer three starts ago and has run real ly well in defeat the last two times, despite conditions not really being to his liking.
There was no disgrace in being beaten by stablemate Secret Number on ground much too soft at Ascot last time and all the vibes from Australia are that Royal Empire has settled in really well and looks primed to run a big race.
Kerrin McEvoy certainly fancies his chances, he is well drawn in stall 11 and the Godolphin horses are in flying form, so there’s everything to like about his chance, especially as the step up to two miles is certain to suit.
The big danger might be the French-trained mare Verema. She was the ante-post choice for this race a few weeks ago and like Royal Empire everything seems to have gone smoothly in her preparation.
Alain de Royer-Dupre won the race with Americain in 2010 and I think these slowly run Australian events suit the French horses perfectly as they are trained to settle and sprint which is exactly what is required.
She will run well as should the topweight Dunaden, although he is not getting any younger and Jamie Spemcer will need luck from stall one.
Of the other European trained runners, I think Brown Panther needs it to rain quite hard if he is to be fully effective, while Dandino was trained for the minute for the Caulfield Cup and that race might have suited him better than the two miles he faces today.
Mount Athos has to be taken extremely seriously after his desperate luck last year and if Craig Williams can tuck him in from stall 22 he has to go well.
I think his chance depends on the early pace because if they go slow, as they usually do in Australia, Mount Athos is going to have to give ground away and come wide up the home straight, or depend on luck by switching to the rail behind a wall of horses.
It is by no means beyond the realms of possibility that Mount Athos can still win, but stall 22 certainly makes life a good deal more difficult.
Most of the best home hopes were formerly trained in Europe and it says something about the state of Australian middle-distance racing that only five in the 24-runner field were bred in the Southern Hemisphere.
Dear Demi might well be the best of the longshots. She has run well in the Caulfield Cup and Mackinnon on her last two starts and will see out the two miles no problem. However, she has had a tough time of it recently and once again has not had the best of luck with the draw.

Advice

Royal Empire
4.0oam Tuesday, Flemington
1pt win at 20-1 generally


Already advised
Verem
1pt win at 20-1

Waldpark
Non-runner

qc3

tomaussie wrote: »

Hi Guys,

Anybody know where I can find ten year trends for this race.

It's the one race that I'd really like to back the winner of before I die.

G'day !

Have a look here.
http://thesun.racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/upcoming-big-races/melbourne-cup-trends-2013-1381630625/post/488997

tomaussie

Ah that is brilliant. Exactly what I was looking for.

I really hope I can pick the winner this year.

Cheers mate !

qc3

tomaussie wrote: »

Ah that is brilliant. Exactly what I was looking for.

I really hope I can pick the winner this year.

Cheers mate !

Edited my post Tom. looks a better site for trends.

tomaussie

qc3 wrote: »

Edited my post Tom. looks a better site for trends.

Wow qc3. Awesome work.

I've quickly whittled the field down to 5 from those trends.

Of those 5 I'm rightly or wrongly ruiling out numbers 9 as it's a 50/1 shot so that leaves......

no. 4 - sea moon at 12/1

no. 6 - fiorente at 6/1 (fav)

no.12 - seville at 16/1

no. 16 - royal empire at 16/1

Sea Moon only scrapes in on the trends so I'll leave that out.

10 of the last 10 winners had a run within 17 days of the race so royal empire is dodgy having run 31 days ago but I'm been drawn to it.

So by trends it's really between Fiorente and Seville but I may go for Royal Empire.

Anyway, it's easier to pick between 3 rather than 24.

Hope that's the case !

Thanks for your help qc3.

Update - Royal Empire is my selection ! I am ignoring one major trend but it stands out for other reasons over Fiorente and Seville.

Nulty

ATR Guide
The ATR writer has basically picked the win and each way bet I am going with.

Voleuse De Coeurs to win and Masked Marvel as an outsider. I wanted to back Seville last year but he was injured and withdrawn.

Weld is on record as saying he believes she's too immature to win the Cup but even Mr Weld can be surprised by a horse and he believes shes capable of it. Of a very low weight for a 6l Leger demolition!

qc3

Went with Royal Empire @ 16s for the win and Ibicenco e/w @ 66/1 who won the Geelong Cup.

kiers47

Simenon has a relatively nice weight. Might stick a small token bet on him at 12s always gives his running!

rossom

Had a little bet on Fawkner 16/1 for interest. Huge, huge question marks on whether he'll stay given he started out the year finishing 3rd to Black Caviar over 6f but if he does I think he'll run a big race. It's a bloody big if though!

chipsdave

kiers47 wrote: »

Simenon has a relatively nice weight. Might stick a small token bet on him at 12s always gives his running!

Looks lightly weighted indeed , hope you are right as I have availed of 20's Ante Post , after seeing what Willie Mullins did with BlackstairsMountain in Japan couldn't resist , any advice on live coverage anyone online ??

Starscream25

chipsdave wrote: »

Looks lightly weighted indeed , hope you are right as I have availed of 20's Ante Post , after seeing what Willie Mullins did with BlackstairsMountain in Japan couldn't resist , any advice on live coverage anyone online ??

Got him at 25/1, he was at 33/1 at one stage, he's looking good by all accounts.

UrbanSea

Not a fan of this race at all. I don't like how a country's biggest race is a handicap and the horses are ran over silly distances to keep their mark down. Didn't Seville run over six or seven furlongs before it last year

UrbanFret

UrbanSea wrote: »

Not a fan of this race at all. I don't like how a country's biggest race is a handicap and the horses are ran over silly distances to keep their mark down. Didn't Seville run over six or seven furlongs before it last year

You don't seem to be a fan of any of the races outside of europe . when someone as travelled as johhny G says the way forward is all to the east you have to take notice. This is their biggest day of the year. It's a fantastic occasion. Sure the quality of horse might leave a bit to be desired but that shouldn't detract from competitiveness of it. And the prize money.1st $3,600,000, 2nd $900,000, 3rd $450,000, 4th $250,000, 5th $175,000, 6th $125,000, 7th $125,000, 8th $125,000, 9th $125,000, 10th $125,000. :eek:

kiers47

chipsdave wrote: »

Looks lightly weighted indeed , hope you are right as I have availed of 20's Ante Post , after seeing what Willie Mullins did with BlackstairsMountain in Japan couldn't resist , any advice on live coverage anyone online ??

Missed the 12/1 and wasn't interested at 10s so ended up plumping with Dandino also at 10s. Wouldnt mind seeing either win. So good luck with your bet.
Not sure about the online coverage but it is definitely on atr.

faoile@n

UrbanSea wrote: »

Not a fan of this race at all. I don't like how a country's biggest race is a handicap and the horses are ran over silly distances to keep their mark down. Didn't Seville run over six or seven furlongs before it last year

Would the Grand National not be our equivalent?

Not a massive fan of the race myself for betting purposes but I think its a great spectacle.

There's no flat handicap in Europe that comes close to it.

Slattsy

Hate the race, hate Australians, Australian beer is piss poor at best.

Couldn't be arsed. Awful country. Crocodile Dundee? Christian Bale? **** off.

MonkstownHoop

Slattsy wrote: »

Hate the race, hate Australians, Australian beer is piss poor at best.

Couldn't be arsed. Awful country. Crocodile Dundee? Christian Bale? **** off.

Christian Bale is Welsh

Slattsy

The other fella from Batman i meant Heath Leger lol

longshotvalue

I do love watching this race, and haven’t any real fancies this year but at teh moment there is a couple of what look standout prices for me.

Seville has had this in mind now for a long time and may just have the bit of class needed to forge ahead down the straight. He is 20/1 with ladbrokes and that looks a few points too big.

Simenon, is a proven Group 1 Stayer and is most certainly in here on the wrong weight, he still obviously has a lot to do in this field with the amount on luck required, but its possible this race could suit him perfectly and i didn’t think he’d be 14/1 on the day of the race. He is sure to be flying at the finish and let hope this time he gets there on time. He quite possibly has the right Jockey on him for his style of racing..

I have to trow in a huge price one in this race and of the big priced horses the one most likely to have a shot looks to be Ethiopia. He is a former winner of the Australian Derby and although he has been somewhat disappointing since, he looks to have improved in his last run and hopefully has had this race in mind. He looks worth a small bet a 66/1

1 Point win Seville 20/1 Ladbrokes

1 Point win Simenon 14/1 Bet365

1/2 Point win Ethiopia 66/1 Generally

kiers47

aidankkk wrote: »

I do love watching this race, and haven’t any real fancies this year but at teh moment there is a couple of what look standout prices for me.

Seville has had this in mind now for a long time and may just have the bit of class needed to forge ahead down the straight. He is 20/1 with ladbrokes and that looks a few points too big.

Simenon, is a proven Group 1 Stayer and is most certainly in here on the wrong weight, he still obviously has a lot to do in this field with the amount on luck required, but its possible this race could suit him perfectly and i didn’t think he’d be 14/1 on the day of the race. He is sure to be flying at the finish and let hope this time he gets there on time. He quite possibly has the right Jockey on him for his style of racing..

I have to trow in a huge price one in this race and of the big priced horses the one most likely to have a shot looks to be Ethiopia. He is a former winner of the Australian Derby and although he has been somewhat disappointing since, he looks to have improved in his last run and hopefully has had this race in mind. He looks worth a small bet a 66/1

1 Point win Seville 20/1 Ladbrokes

1 Point win Simenon 14/1 Bet365

1/2 Point win Ethiopia 66/1 Generally

Was looking for something like that on Simenon but could only get 10s 2 hours ago. Although I can't bet with Bet365 anyway. My 1 doubt about Simenon is that I fear that he won't have that burst of speed in the closing stages that usually wins this. Even though it is a 2mile race IMO it runs more like an extended mile and a half race most years with usually a lull in the pace half way through the race.

Some good selections in there Aidan. Good luck with them.
Still quite happy with the 10/1 on dandino. Another I'm gonna throw into the hat is brown panther at 16/1

hucklebuck

UrbanFret wrote: »

You don't seem to be a fan of any of the races outside of europe . when someone as travelled as johhny G says the way forward is all to the east you have to take notice. This is their biggest day of the year. It's a fantastic occasion. Sure the quality of horse might leave a bit to be desired but that shouldn't detract from competitiveness of it. And the prize money.1st $3,600,000, 2nd $900,000, 3rd $450,000, 4th $250,000, 5th $175,000, 6th $125,000, 7th $125,000, 8th $125,000, 9th $125,000, 10th $125,000. :eek:

Just to be clear, the Melbourne Cup is a bumper for professional riders with nice prizemoney. Prizemoney does not make a race great.

I have backed hurdler Simenon, I think Willie Mullins has planned a Flemington Steele :eek:

hucklebuck

Slattsy wrote: »

Hate the race, hate Australians, Australian beer is piss poor at best.

Couldn't be arsed. Awful country. Crocodile Dundee? Christian Bale? **** off.

I agree, Mick Jagger? George W Bush? **** off :cool:

BorneTobyWilde

I'm going with Verema for the win, good draw.

Francie Barrett

Nulty wrote: »

ATR Guide
The ATR writer has basically picked the win and each way bet I am going with.

Voleuse De Coeurs to win and Masked Marvel as an outsider. I wanted to back Seville last year but he was injured and withdrawn.

Weld is on record as saying he believes she's too immature to win the Cup but even Mr Weld can be surprised by a horse and he believes shes capable of it. Of a very low weight for a 6l Leger demolition!

Snap.

tomaussie

Slattsy wrote: »

Hate the race, hate Australians, Australian beer is piss poor at best.

Couldn't be arsed. Awful country. Crocodile Dundee? Christian Bale? **** off.

You don't like Jessica Gomes, Pania Rose, Emily Scott, Holly Valance, Imogen Bailey, Krystal Forscutt, Miranda Kerr ???

You don't like Feral hop hog, murals imperial stout, stone & wood ale, kooinda pale ale, red duck, white rabbit dark ale
???

I know this is an Irish site but you sound English mate with all the crying.


How long did you live here for and where ?

I think the aidankkk fella has definitely picked out the most likely outsider in Ethiopia.

dodzy

Obviously a very open race, but a friend of mine works in the Waterhouse yard and they are bullish on fiorente. He would work the horse regularly and word is its in great shape.

BQQ

tomaussie wrote: »

You don't like Jessica Gomes, Pania Rose, Emily Scott, Holly Valance, Imogen Bailey, Krystal Forscutt, Miranda Kerr ???

You don't like Feral hop hog, murals imperial stout, stone & wood ale, kooinda pale ale, red duck, white rabbit dark ale
???

I know this is an Irish site but you sound English mate with all the crying.


How long did you live here for and where ?

I think the aidankkk fella has definitely picked out the most likely outsider in Ethiopia.

Don't forget Rhiannon Fish.


Didn't Ethiopia finish last in 2012 ?
And he gets no respite from the handicapper.
Don't fancy that at all.


Seville has been laid out for this for 2 years.
He'll do for me.

Nulty

I delayed my each way on Masked Marvel cause thought his price might drift further...I can't bring myself to back it even now. He's done nothing since his leger win.

So hard to pick another....so I won't.

BQQ

Nulty wrote: »

I delayed my each way on Masked Marvel cause thought his price might drift further...I can't bring myself to back it even now. He's done nothing since his leger win.

So hard to pick another....so I won't.

Yeah, he looks so well handicapped, but I can't escape the feeling that he's just no good anymore.

hucklebuck

tomaussie wrote: »

You don't like Jessica Gomes, Pania Rose, Emily Scott, H
???

He said he didnt say he didnt like women!

tomaussie wrote: »

I think the aidankkk fella has definitely picked out the most likely outsider in Ethiopia.

Deadly "most likely outsider", I prefer to back the least fancied favourite.

marchino

with 1993 winner and international flag bearer ''Vintage Crop''

seanhynes

marchino wrote: »

with 1993 winner and international flag bearer ''Vintage Crop''

Lucky man

marc96

can someone let me know the first 4 horses across the line and howmany starts

chipsdave

Fiorente wins
hopefully Simenon was 4th ,listening only ,no live

bellybuster12

Red cadeaux was 2nd, mount athos 3rd, simenon 4th and dunaden 5th

tryfix

marc96 wrote: »

can someone let me know the first 4 horses across the line and howmany starts

1st Fiorente
2ndRed Cadeaux
3rdMount Athos
4thSimenon
5thDandino

24 started

chipsdave

MELBOURNE CUP RESULT: 1. FIORENTE, 2. RED CADEAUX, 3. MOUNT ATHOS, 4. SIMENONby Ben Linfoot 4:06 AM

marc96

my 3 all placed,pity not one of them could win:(

brandon_flowers

The missus with her "red cadeaux is a lovely name, I like presents" and places at 50/1.

hucklebuck

**** race, **** commentators and **** camerawork, race that stops a stupid nation.

What a great back story with Damien Oliver? Oh yeah the guy who got done for backing a rival horse in 2012 wins.

I was hoping Simenon would be kicked on just before the straight to make use of his stamina.

Slattsy

tomaussie wrote: »

You don't like Jessica Gomes, Pania Rose, Emily Scott, Holly Valance, Imogen Bailey, Krystal Forscutt, Miranda Kerr ???

You don't like Feral hop hog, murals imperial stout, stone & wood ale, kooinda pale ale, red duck, white rabbit dark ale
???

I know this is an Irish site but you sound English mate with all the crying.


How long did you live here for and where ?

I think the aidankkk fella has definitely picked out the most likely outsider in Ethiopia.

I don't know any of them. Are they in Home and Away or something??

Did a dingo eat your baby?
I sound English? Retract that. Or I challenge you do a duel. Or whatever the Australian equivalent is, a boomerang throwing contest.
Stupid Australians.

:-)

chipsdave

brandon_flowers wrote: »

The missus with her "red cadeaux is a lovely name, I like presents" and places at 50/1.

She likes a 'glass of red' too no doubt
Just watched the replay there , turning for home Simenon took it up and for a brief second looks good , not a lot between the leading 4 in the end , happy with My place part of each way double though esp seeing as The Aussie commentator called Simenon 5th on the radio station commentary :eek:

dodzy

dodzy wrote: »

Obviously a very open race, but a friend of mine works in the Waterhouse yard and they are bullish on fiorente. He would work the horse regularly and word is its in great shape.

You little daisy:D

walrusgumble

Oh well a race where getting placed might still mean you can make a nice profit .(backed Simenon; can't by a win for love nor money)

Harry Angstrom

dodzy wrote: »

Obviously a very open race, but a friend of mine works in the Waterhouse yard and they are bullish on fiorente. He would work the horse regularly and word is its in great shape.

You should have posted this yesterday afternoon when we were all awake

UrbanSea

UrbanFret wrote: »

You don't seem to be a fan of any of the races outside of europe . when someone as travelled as johhny G says the way forward is all to the east you have to take notice. This is their biggest day of the year. It's a fantastic occasion. Sure the quality of horse might leave a bit to be desired but that shouldn't detract from competitiveness of it. And the prize money.1st $3,600,000, 2nd $900,000, 3rd $450,000, 4th $250,000, 5th $175,000, 6th $125,000, 7th $125,000, 8th $125,000, 9th $125,000, 10th $125,000. :eek:

This is a funny point. Given I love the racing at Meydan and the Breeders Cup, can you point out what race I've said I don't like?

While it is a good spectacle, I think making handicaps a gr.1 are a piss take. If the best horse can't win a gr.1 because it has to give weight away then it shouldn't be a group 1

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

This is a funny point. Given I love the racing at Meydan and the Breeders Cup, can you point out what race I've said I don't like?

While it is a good spectacle, I think making handicaps a gr.1 are a piss take. If the best horse can't win a gr.1 because it has to give weight away then it shouldn't be a group 1

Australians are stupid.

tomaussie

Slattsy wrote: »

I don't know any of them. Are they in Home and Away or something??

Did a dingo eat your baby?
I sound English? Retract that. Or I challenge you do a duel. Or whatever the Australian equivalent is, a boomerang throwing contest.
Stupid Australians.

:-)

Nice to see that xenophobia is alive and well in Ireland.

I challenge you to a slap in your ignorant face ?

Fair play to qc3 because if you read my after thought it was a 2 horse race between the winner and Seville.

Hope somebody backed it cause I was greedy and backed the longer shot !!!

Slattsy...... even the "ugly" women here are hotter than the "fine" birds in Ireland.


All the best with your straight up and straight down girls.

Slattsy

tomaussie wrote: »

Nice to see that xenophobia is alive and well in Ireland.

I challenge you to a slap in your ignorant face ?

Fair play to qc3 because if you read my after thought it was a 2 horse race between the winner and Seville.

Hope somebody backed it cause I was greedy and backed the longer shot !!!

Slattsy...... even the "ugly" women here are hotter than the "fine" birds in Ireland.


All the best with your straight up and straight down girls.

Like fishing with dynamite.

For the record, Sally from Home and Away ?? Come on man

UrbanSea

Slattsy while I can tell when you're messing it might not come across that way, no need to be an ass