Local elections 2014

Coillte123

So four weeks to go and many candidates busy with the canvass. Loads of usual speculation so anyone got thoughts on who is doing well and want to predict who will make it in the castlebar area ??? FF for 3 ?

threebeards

Coillte123 wrote: »

Loads of usual speculation so anyone got thoughts on who is doing well and want to predict who will make it in the castlebar area ??? FF for 3 ?

Yeah, I think FF will return all 3 in Castlebar. My reading of the 8 to be elected would be:

Michael Kilcoyne (Ind)
Al McDonnell (FF)
Lisa Chambers (FF)
Blackie Gavin (FF)
Henry Kenny (FG)
Cyril Burke (FG)
Eugene Lavin (FG)
Therese Ruane (SF)

Coillte123

not so confident about Lavin

Coillte_Bhoy

Coillte123 wrote: »

not so confident about Lavin

Why so? I haven't really been following it tbh though i accept he has it all to do.

finisklin

Ballina Area

Reape FF
O'Malley FF
Weir Independent
Munnelly FG
Winters FG
Loftus FF
Ginty Independent
?????

Dont know who will get last seat....maybe a FGer Cruise or Mellett?

Green&Red

finisklin wrote: »

Ballina Area

Reape FF
O'Malley FF
Weir Independent
Munnelly FG
Winters FG
Loftus FF
Ginty Independent
?????

Dont know who will get last seat....maybe a FGer Cruise or Mellett?

I would have thought Cruise is a shoo-in
Weir will do well to hold his seat

runawaybishop

Green&Red wrote: »

I would have thought Cruise is a shoo-in
Weir will do well to hold his seat

I would agree. Cruise was door to door deep in weirs territory this week.

finisklin

Don't forget that Joe Mellett is cutting in on him as well.

Weir will get the anti government vote especially for his stance on the pylons.

I can't see Mellett or Cruise getting in......one or the other by a whisker. Plus it probably depends on how strong the FG vote is in the bigger areas i.e. Ballina.

It will be interesting.

Anybody here of any canvassers getting physical abuse?

monument

finisklin wrote: »

Ballina Area

Reape FF
O'Malley FF
Weir Independent
Munnelly FG
Winters FG
Loftus FF
Ginty Independent
?????

Dont know who will get last seat....maybe a FGer Cruise or Mellett?

Would you mind outlining why you picked that order?

I'd agree with Reape having a good chance at the first seat and the others having a good chance of seats... but to be honest I would not know where to start with order of seats given there's so much at play.

A lot of factors are hard to get an accurate feel of across such a large district -- how the sheer amount of candidates will affect patterns; if FF is maybe risking splitting their own vote too much with so many candidates; how the extended boundary will play out; will the pylons issue be all that widespread or will it just be confined to notable but not district-wide areas; and how much anger is actually out there against the parties -- how much will people want to punish FG for water or property taxes? How much will others want to keep punishing FF?

finisklin wrote: »

Weir will get the anti government vote especially for his stance on the pylons.

Yes, but is he strong enough much outside his own area to get the third seat?

finisklin wrote: »

Anybody here of any canvassers getting physical abuse?

No, have you?

finisklin

monument wrote: »

Would you mind outlining why you picked that order?

I'd agree with Reape having a good chance at the first seat and the others having a good chance of seats... but to be honest I would not know where to start with order of seats given there's so much at play.

A lot of factors are hard to get an accurate feel of across such a large district -- how the sheer amount of candidates will affect patterns; if FF is maybe risking splitting their own vote too much with so many candidates; how the extended boundary will play out; will the pylons issue be all that widespread or will it just be confined to notable but not district-wide areas; and how much anger is actually out there against the parties -- how much will people want to punish FG for water or property taxes? How much will others want to keep punishing FF?




Yes, but is he strong enough much outside his own area to get the third seat?




No, have you?

There is still a strong, core FF vote out there. Particularly in Bonniconlon which stretches into Ballina. Despite the state they have left the country in, somethings never change and this cohort will consistently vote FF. Reape will top the poll, no question.

O'Malley is wily and his timing as the last mayor of the town is testament to his cunning. Have to say the refurbishment of the playground on the Sligo road and the forthcoming photos next week is a stroke of genius and no better man than Johnny to milk it. Free ice creams for kids.....if that's not a vote winner I don't know what is.

Weir's area stretches into Ballina and there is an awareness of his stance on the pylons in the town. This will stand to him as there is a lot resentment out there regarding the extra taxes, water charges etc that has been imposed by his former colleagues.

I have been tempted to let some canvassers have it and there is still time......

monument

finisklin wrote: »

O'Malley is wily and his timing as the last mayor of the town is testament to his cunning. Have to say the refurbishment of the playground on the Sligo road and the forthcoming photos next week is a stroke of genius and no better man than Johnny to milk it. Free ice creams for kids.....if that's not a vote winner I don't know what is.

Ok, fair enough, the playground will go down well with many and I can see that my own son and other children love it.

But has it a chance to be a double-edged sword as I've also talked to people who see it as a waste of resources and they might have a point given that there was little wrong with the old playground. It could have been brushed up and added to and the money put into one of the other planned playgrounds.

But I agree overall that he has worked hard to get involved in as much as posable since the last election -- he however is not the only one playing that kind of fame (ie Winters etc).

finisklin wrote: »

Weir's area stretches into Ballina and there is an awareness of his stance on the pylons in the town. This will stand to him as there is a lot resentment out there regarding the extra taxes, water charges etc that has been imposed by his former colleagues.

Problem is that the level of care about pylons drops quickly as you move away from the route area.

That's not to say nobody else cares, but they care less. How much less is the question.

runawaybishop

finisklin wrote: »

Weir will get the anti government vote especially for his stance on the pylons.

Cruise is also anti-pylon but he seems more measured. Weirs material on it seems poorly put together, but maybe that won't matter to the locals. The pylons are running right next to Weirs home though so he has a pretty strong stance on it. On the other hand Cruise would be well liked in the locality (a lot more so than Weir) and is well known for community work.

naughto

i cant see the three ff candite getting a seat one of them will surly loose out

finisklin

Will Sinn Fein make break through in Mayo?

Any word on Independents?

Will Harry Barret's labour dragon be slayed?

naughto

no to all three questions

finisklin

Harry won't make it.......his bluff will be called.

Plus labour are being hammered nationally. SF may squeeze more as a result

yop

finisklin wrote: »

Harry won't make it.......his bluff will be called.

Plus labour are being hammered nationally. SF may squeeze more as a result

Agreed on that, biggest bluffer around! There seems to be an ever grown hate of FG and Labour and I think they are going to be slaughtered.

naughto

i dont no lads iam no supporter of his but i think he will scrape it.
agree that fg are going to take a hiding
and with the hospital back in the headlines again there will be no mercey

yop

I can't recall other elections but have the candidates reduced their parties logo to something really small? Seems to have shrank!

finisklin

yop wrote: »

I can't recall other elections but have the candidates reduced their parties logo to something really small? Seems to have shrank!

That was the same at the last GE......you couldn't see the FF logo, it was barely visible. MMmhhhh wonder why?:D

yop

finisklin wrote: »

That was the same at the last GE......you couldn't see the FF logo, it was barely visible. MMmhhhh wonder why?:D

I was wondering, I was passing Harry Barrets poster in the car and I could barely see Labour! Also a few more FG and FF posters.

morebabies

What does anyone reckon of Patsy O'Brien's chances? He's losing a lot of his local area's votes with the electoral area changes but he seems to be fairly popular so I'm not sure.

Oldtree

Did anyone get their voting cards yet? no sign here, wonder if they saved the postage?

oscarBravo

Ours just arrived this afternoon.

naughto

ours came as well

finisklin

Are the canvassers responding to your issues - water charges, USC, property tax etc?

yop

finisklin wrote: »

Are the canvassers responding to your issues - water charges, USC, property tax etc?

None of the main parties came near us.

oscarBravo

finisklin wrote: »

Are the canvassers responding to your issues - water charges, USC, property tax etc?

Why would I ask county council candidates about those things?

finisklin

Next best thing to telling it to Inda, Michael Noonan etc directly. They can pass on how well you think they're doing and how happy or unhappy you feel about the property tax and water charges etc.

SeanJ09

threebeards wrote: »

Yeah, I think FF will return all 3 in Castlebar. My reading of the 8 to be elected would be:

Michael Kilcoyne (Ind)
Al McDonnell (FF)
Lisa Chambers (FF)
Blackie Gavin (FF)
Henry Kenny (FG)
Cyril Burke (FG)
Eugene Lavin (FG)
Therese Ruane (SF)

Everyday you hear people complaining about FG and past FF governments, but yet we see the projected number of elected candidates from each party:3 from each. Are we not as bad as these liars and bull***ters when we continuously keep electing them? After the election you will hear people ranting on about how this government is adversely affecting them, but what do you expect when you vote for the likes of Brendan Heneghan, C. Burke and E. Lavin, Blackie Gavin etc...?