MLB: 2013-2014 Off-season - Pre-season

JONJO THE MISER

The Rays game called off.
Two more bets for tonight.
Oakland 3 star bet.
Cleveland 5 star bet.

rockonollie

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

The Rays game called off.
Two more bets for tonight.
Oakland 3 star bet.
Cleveland 5 star bet.

Hit the WGC Cadillac championship too......Florida getting slammed right now....most grapefruit league games are affected.

smackbunnybaby

Called after 8 innings because of rain, Miami 0-0 Boston.
Cracker

JONJO THE MISER

Tampa bay and Boston two bets today.

8-10

Nice rally from the Mets there in the 9th. They'll be better this year. Phillies, whose game I've just finished watching, are going to be dreadful. I'll do a full write up of my predictions soon, and my win lines in the gambling thread. Last year I predicted 23 out of 30 teams win lines (ie over/under) correct v Paddy Power, so only 7 losers. Will post my rationale too but I already know I'll be overs on Mets and under on Phillies as the lines stand so far.

JONJO THE MISER

2 from 2 this evening, end of a profitable week on Baseball.
Will start a log over on the gambling forum for anyone who wants to follow my baseball bets.

jack presley

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

2 from 2 this evening, end of a profitable week on Baseball.
Will start a log over on the gambling forum for anyone who wants to follow my baseball bets.

As long as you don't go all Floyd Mayweather on us and only post when you win!

JONJO THE MISER

jack presley wrote: »

As long as you don't go all Floyd Mayweather on us and only post when you win!

I will make my picks before all games, i have a certain system i follow, which i have been working on over the last month, have backdated it to 2005 and has shown a profit every year.
I will just post the picks, i wont give a write up and i wont explain how my system works, its up to people if they want to follow or not.

JONJO THE MISER

Wrong forum.

8-10

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

I will make my picks before all games, i have a certain system i follow, which i have been working on over the last month, have backdated it to 2005 and has shown a profit every year.
I will just post the picks, i wont give a write up and i wont explain how my system works, its up to people if they want to follow or not.

Can you hint at what it is? My main curiosity is how it works for spring training games, is there much of an adjustment required?

I agree this really is the wrong forum for this but I've had my own 'systems' for the past few years and work on them every offseason, I've just never thought to try to apply to spring training games and have no idea how I'd even go about making them a viable option. (I don't like saying system really because that implies a tightly defined tried and tested rules-based method, whereas I've focused on strategies around starting pitchers, ballpark factors (including a failed attempt of creating a 'weather-adjusted ballpark factor' stat) and matchup form (lefties v righties, last 5 games, last 5 versus same opposition etc))

So I'm always interested to read about what other people are focused on, so not your secret receipe, but I'd be very very interested in your high level approach as it's likely something I've never looked at. I also have a pretty cool mini lab where I house my data, and have a dedicated sandbox environment to run my queries and test new ideas. Have been building it up over last few years, main data points I'm missing are specific left/right splits for batters as this is not easy to update during the season, and also historical weather conditions (I also include altitude and atmospheric pressure in that), but as I say I've thus far failed in getting any value out of weather conditions as a predictable value other than a tiny adjustment which would count as less than the 'luck factor' anyway.

Long story short, if you can give a 5-word "high level" approach I'd be very interested in knowing your spring training adjustments (even by PM), and if you're interested in any particular data elements that you need but can't find easily I can possibly help there too? At the end of the day hopefully we'll all benefit.

This forum is really being derailed so apologies, you can tell I'm very interested in this. Mining baseball data to help betting strategy is a big interest of mine, to the point where I can get more out of it than watching a game (sometimes).

I'll follow up in gambling thread once I'm finished with my win line predictions (I'll post my 'system' for these too if there's interest), should be by early next week.

jack presley

ESPN (the BT one) is showing a couple of Spring Training games the week of 17th. They start showing Baseball Tonight that week too.

mikemac1

Watching some spring training and I don't know why MLB.TV won't strip out the ads when a game goes to archive

I don't even see the ad, just a screen of "commercial break in progress" for minutes.

NFL Gamepass games go to archive the day after the game and they strip out all ad breaks

mikemac1

Is an official treated as part of the field? Like referees are treated in soccer?

Orioles had a man on second and the team hits a double so Nelson Cruz is racing in to score a run.

The Red Sox cente fielder threw to the 2nd baseman who made an attempt to throw to the catcher and the official ducked down out of the way. If the official got hit and the ball just fell to the ground is the play still live?

Is there any unwritten rule involved if the official got clocked in the head and fell down hurt and the Orioles man on 1st wanted to keep running and take advantage?

Still learning

MilanPan!c

mikemac1 wrote: »

Is an official treated as part of the field? Like referees are treated in soccer?

Orioles had a man on second and the team hits a double so Nelson Cruz is racing in to score a run.

The Red Sox cente fielder threw to the 2nd baseman who made an attempt to throw to the catcher and the official ducked down out of the way. If the official got hit and the ball just fell to the ground is the play still live?

Is there any unwritten rule involved if the official got clocked in the head and fell down hurt and the Orioles man on 1st wanted to keep running and take advantage?

Still learning

Here ya go:

5.08
If a thrown ball accidentally touches a base coach, or a pitched or thrown ball touches an umpire, the ball is alive and in play. However, if the coach interferes with a thrown ball, the runner is out.

mlb.mlb.com/mlb/official_info/official_rules/ball_in_play_5.jsp

jack presley

mikemac1 wrote: »

Is an official treated as part of the field? Like referees are treated in soccer?

Orioles had a man on second and the team hits a double so Nelson Cruz is racing in to score a run.

The Red Sox cente fielder threw to the 2nd baseman who made an attempt to throw to the catcher and the official ducked down out of the way. If the official got hit and the ball just fell to the ground is the play still live?

Is there any unwritten rule involved if the official got clocked in the head and fell down hurt and the Orioles man on 1st wanted to keep running and take advantage?

Still learning

Have a look at this, might be of help


http://content.usatoday.com/communities/dailypitch/post/2011/05/rule-review-what-happens-when-ump-becomes-part-of-play/1#.Ux2HQCkgHCQ

rockonollie

mikemac1 wrote: »

Is an official treated as part of the field? Like referees are treated in soccer?

Orioles had a man on second and the team hits a double so Nelson Cruz is racing in to score a run.

The Red Sox cente fielder threw to the 2nd baseman who made an attempt to throw to the catcher and the official ducked down out of the way. If the official got hit and the ball just fell to the ground is the play still live?

Is there any unwritten rule involved if the official got clocked in the head and fell down hurt and the Orioles man on 1st wanted to keep running and take advantage?

Still learning

Umpires are considered part of the field of play, so it would still be a live ball......what's worse, if a fielder throws a ball and it hits an umpire, allowing a runner to advance, the fielder is charged with an error

Edit; to cite the official rule:

Rule 10.12 (Errors)
(a) The official scorer shall charge an error against any fielder:
(7) whose throw takes an unnatural bounce, touches a base or the pitcher’s plate,
or touches a runner, a fielder or an umpire, thereby permitting any runner to
advance;

Rule 10.12(a)(7) Comment: The official scorer shall apply this rule even when it appears to
be an injustice to a fielder whose throw was accurate.

jack presley

mikemac1 wrote: »

Still learning

I think we're all still learning!

rockonollie

jack presley wrote: »

I think we're all still learning!

It's amazing what I've learned from scoring high school ball......i ended up printing out the scoring rules to keep in the press box with me.....the rule above being a prime example.

There's so many odd things that can happen, but with baseball everytime a runner advances, there has to be a scoring decision to account for it.....sometimes that leads to seemingly unfair errors

webpal

http://www.locatetv.com/uk/listings/espn#17-Mar-2014

looks like it back on our screens from Monday next

smackbunnybaby

Tulo leaves game after being hit in leg by pitch.
Just bruising!

Didn't Ubaldo J drill him the pre-season after he left Rockies?

People are always picking on him!

Uncle_moe

smackbunnybaby wrote: »

Tulo leaves game after being hit in leg by pitch.

could have been retaliation for Trumbo being hit in the fourth. Seems nuts in pre season and Miley said he accidentally cut it too far in, but you never know. Dbacks have history.

jack presley

Uncle_moe wrote: »

Seems nuts in pre season

There are stories of players drilling teammates during batting practice for stuff that happened years before when one of them was on a different team but they hadn't crossed paths since so there was no chance to get even.

smackbunnybaby

jack presley wrote: »

There are stories of players drilling teammates during batting practice for stuff that happened years before when one of them was on a different team but they hadn't crossed paths since so there was no chance to get even.

bits and pieces in here: http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9167314/retaliation-requirement-major-league-baseball

jack presley

smackbunnybaby wrote: »

bits and pieces in here: http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9167314/retaliation-requirement-major-league-baseball

That's a great article. Some of the getting even stuff is so stupid but it's very compelling and always has my interest.

Waitsian

jack presley wrote: »

That's a great article. Some of the getting even stuff is so stupid...

Childish I would call it.

jack presley

mod9maple wrote: »

Childish I would call it.

Yeah, definitely.

Uncle_moe

i think its great. too many sports have gone far too soft. I like that baseball has upheld many traditions, good or bad.

MilanPan!c

Uncle_moe wrote: »

i think its great. too many sports have gone far too soft. I like that baseball has upheld many traditions, good or bad.

I kinda agree with this.

Baseball is all about survival, 170 games a year, months of training, and more if you're lucky, in the post season. Wanna be one of the greats, do that for 10 years. It's the life they all lead and dream of.

It's a truly brutal game in a way that no other sport can be.

Embrace it I say.

jack presley

MilanPan!c wrote: »

I kinda agree with this.

Baseball is all about survival, 170 games a year, months of training, and more if you're lucky, in the post season. Wanna be one of the greats, do that for 10 years. It's the life they all lead and dream of.

It's a truly brutal game in a way that no other sport can be.

Embrace it I say.

But does that justify throwing at a guy's head because he spent 0.2 seconds staring at a home run he had just hit?

MilanPan!c

jack presley wrote: »

But does that justify throwing at a guy's head because he spent 0.2 seconds staring at a home run he had just hit?

Wait is sport about logically justifying everything?

jack presley

Something we were talking about last week happened in a games yesterday (umpire getting hit with ball)

http://nesn.com/2014/03/umpire-goes-down-hard-after-taking-line-drive-to-groin-video/

In the box score it says "Brandon Phillips singles on a line drive to shortstop Mike Aviles. Devin Mesoraco to 3rd. Roger Bernadina to 2nd.". Nothing about umpire getting hit in the nads though!

rockonollie

jack presley wrote: »

Something we were talking about last week happened in a games yesterday (umpire getting hit with ball)

http://nesn.com/2014/03/umpire-goes-down-hard-after-taking-line-drive-to-groin-video/

In the box score it says "Brandon Phillips singles on a line drive to shortstop Mike Aviles. Devin Mesoraco to 3rd. Roger Bernadina to 2nd.". Nothing about umpire getting hit in the nads though!

I was watching it live and it still hurts me to think about it now..........it also lead to one of the easiest review calls we'll see....after the ump left the game they were short so didn't have an ump at 3rd base, Phillips was called out on a steal attempt at 3rd (called by ump between 2nd and 3rd).....phillips and the basecoach both immediately signalled to Price to challenge the call and it was overturned within a few seconds.

jack presley

This video has got me into mood for 'real' baseball. Can't wait for saturday morning now.

http://m.mlb.com/video/v31565453/sydney-cricket-ground-gets-a-baseball-makeover

smackbunnybaby

Here's hoping that there is no lasting damage done to Chapam here.
Still can't believe the force he would have taken in the face and to stay conscious

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article/cin/reds-pitcher-aroldis-chapman-carried-off-on-stretcher-after-getting-hit-in-head?ymd=20140319&content_id=69669716

rockonollie

smackbunnybaby wrote: »

Here's hoping that there is no lasting damage done to Chapam here.
Still can't believe the force he would have taken in the face and to stay conscious

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article/cin/reds-pitcher-aroldis-chapman-carried-off-on-stretcher-after-getting-hit-in-head?ymd=20140319&content_id=69669716

Bryan Price is holding a team meeting at 9am local time (4pm irish) and will address media afterwards.

jack presley

Umpire in the groin, Chapman in the head. Looks like Cincinnati games are becoming quite dangerous ones to be involved in!

I love watching Chapman pitch, hopefully no long term affects.

rockonollie

Update from the Reds.....Chapman was conscious and moving the whole time, was awake and joking with catcher Bryan Pena this morning, and is expected to make a full recovery although they did not mention any specific timeframe.

Further update: Chapman will have surgery and have a plate inserted permanently.....expected to be out 6-8 weeks

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

rockonollie wrote: »

Update from the Reds.....Chapman was conscious and moving the whole time, was awake and joking with catcher Bryan Pena this morning, and is expected to make a full recovery although they did not mention any specific timeframe.

Further update: Chapman will have surgery and have a plate inserted permanently.....expected to be out 6-8 weeks

Bad for the reds, horrific for my fantasy team!

Glad he is ok. Looked really bad at the time.

rockonollie

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

Bad for the reds, horrific for my fantasy team!

Glad he is ok. Looked really bad at the time.

Good news for the Reds is that they have Broxton and Marshall who could be closers on most teams......they'll just bump everyone up a spot.....as for fantasy, Chapman is one of the few Reds players that I didn't draft.....though I did take LeCure, who'll see plenty of action anyway.

jack presley

Good that he's ok and will be back on the mound. If you're interested you should google Brandon McCarthy and see how getting hit on the head affected him. I don't have any links but I remember some fascinating articles on his comeback and how he got over it mentally. I know his injury was a lot worse than Chapman's but I'm sure it still scared the crap out of him and there will be a mental hurdle to overcome the next time he pitches.

rockonollie

More good news from the team docter......Chapman (apart from the broken bone) only suffered a mild-concussion, scans and other test have found no other damage to the brain or eye.

rockonollie

Bailey-hurt, Latos-hurt, Cueto-hurt, Chapman-hurt........rough couple of days for the reds

smackbunnybaby

Hey guys - There has a lot been talked about the Cubs and their prospects.

One is Javier Baez. He probably (most definitely) won't be in the opening day roster.

People say it is for money reasons (both in this cubs case and generally amongst all teams). Maybe a stupid question, but do you have to offer a new contract to a player once you call him up? What happens if he goes back down?

rockonollie

smackbunnybaby wrote: »

Hey guys - There has a lot been talked about the Cubs and their prospects.

One is Javier Baez. He probably (most definitely) won't be in the opening day roster.

People say it is for money reasons (both in this cubs case and generally amongst all teams). Maybe a stupid question, but do you have to offer a new contract to a player once you call him up? What happens if he goes back down?

There's multiple reasons......once they are called up for the first time, they are generally given the standard rookie contract, and the countdown immediately starts to arbitration (where they can get a salary increase) and to free agency.

There is also the issue of what's know as "options", every contract has a set number of times that a player can be sent back down to the minors (which is why you hear the phrase "player was optioned to AAA".....once a team uses all of their options in a players contract, that player is placed on waivers and can be claimed by other teams before they can send him down again.

The combination of these 2 contract issues mean that teams will not bring up a prospect until he is close to being fully developed in the minors, unless they are desperately in need of a player. Even in the case of injuries to position players, you'll see clubs sign a free agent instead of calling up their prospects too early.

smackbunnybaby

Cheers Ollie - Thanks!

smackbunnybaby

Jose Iglasias done for the year? Tigers are indicating it anyway!

MLB.com: no "weight-bearing" activities for 4-6 months.

Signing Stephen Drew would not only cost loads financially, but also a draft pick (1st round?)

Uncle_moe

yeah I'm pretty sure they'd be giving up a first round pick and dropping about $9m on a one year deal for Drew. They do kind of need to win now though I would have thought. Apparently they're not overly interested and the Mets look more likely to sign him.

Morrison J

Wouldn't rule them out trading for Didi Gregorius. Good replacement defensively for Iglesias

jack presley

rockonollie wrote: »

There's multiple reasons......once they are called up for the first time, they are generally given the standard rookie contract, and the countdown immediately starts to arbitration (where they can get a salary increase) and to free agency.

There is also the issue of what's know as "options", every contract has a set number of times that a player can be sent back down to the minors (which is why you hear the phrase "player was optioned to AAA".....once a team uses all of their options in a players contract, that player is placed on waivers and can be claimed by other teams before they can send him down again.

The combination of these 2 contract issues mean that teams will not bring up a prospect until he is close to being fully developed in the minors, unless they are desperately in need of a player. Even in the case of injuries to position players, you'll see clubs sign a free agent instead of calling up their prospects too early.

Just to add one thing to this, the option relate to years not the number of times you get demoted/promoted. You can be moved up and down a number of times in a season but it only counts as one of your options. I think it is 4 years with options (but it could be 5, not 100% sure)

It's all part of the CBA so it's the same for every player. It's not like player A gets a contract with 4 years of options and player B gets 3.

And following on from what Ollie says, You will very rarely if ever see a rookie play in the first couple of weeks in April, as if he spend a few weeks in the minors he doesn't get credited with a full years service so the team can keep him under contract for an additional year. Even players like Harper, Trout and Strasburg weren't brought up until this time has passed.

If they delay the promotion until sometime in June (I think) they also avoid them becoming eligible for Super 2 arbitration which doesn't mean they'll stay with the club any longer but does mean they can pay them less for longer.

jack presley

rockonollie wrote: »

Bailey-hurt, Latos-hurt, Cueto-hurt, Chapman-hurt........rough couple of days for the reds

Weren't you saying a couple of weeks ago that the Reds weren't concerned about losing a year of service for that pitcher Stephenson and that he could fill in a couple of starts? Is he still an option if a start is needed early in the season due to injuries?