Evelyn Cusacks forecast tonight

DOCARCH

relaxed wrote: »

As a side note animals can predict the weather to a point.

Animals respond to the weather...they do not predict the weather.

wretcheddomain

relaxed wrote: »

As a side note animals can predict the weather to a point.

Birds flying south for example shows the winter is coming.

They're not predicting the weather, they're responding to general seasonal changes. It doesn't matter to these birds whether it's a mild winter or a severe winter, their action will always be to fly south when mild seasonal effects start to take shape. In other words, don't confuse weather for season.

weisses

DOCARCH wrote: »

Animals respond to the weather...they do not predict the weather.

They predict it for them self and then respond accordingly, and usually they get it right ... But I'll get your point

I always like to hear what the Donegal Postie has to say, do I believe it all, of course not. But its fun to hear his opinion.

wretcheddomain

weisses wrote: »

They predict it for them self and then respond accordingly, and usually they get it right ... But I'll get your point

Stop saying 'predict'. Birds don't sit perched on trees contemplating the weather making accurate 'predictions'. They respond to seasonal changes because the instinct is such that if they don't they'll probably be dead if they don't make such a migration.

joebloggs32

As a schoolteacher I'm delighted she spoke out. I teach geography, and when I cover weather there is always someone telling me that mammy or daddy said this summer etc would be a washout/schoecher etc.
I'm going to play this forecast now everytime I start this topic.

wretcheddomain

joebloggs32 wrote: »

As a schoolteacher I'm delighted she spoke out. I teach geography, and when I cover weather there is always someone telling me that mammy or daddy said this summer etc would be a washout/schoecher etc.
I'm going to play this forecast now everytime I start this topic.

It should be compulsory viewing as part of every Geography curriculum throughout the world.

In fact, a gif, app, poster campaign, might as well go the whole way...

weisses

wretcheddomain wrote: »

Stop saying 'predict'. Birds don't sit perched on trees contemplating the weather making accurate 'predictions'. They respond to seasonal changes because the instinct is such that if they don't they'll probably be dead if they don't make such a migration.

So when a human makes a prediction based on their (usually change) in their normal behavior .. that person is some kind of lunatic ?

wretcheddomain

weisses wrote: »

So when a human makes a prediction based on their (usually change) in their normal behavior .. that person is some kind of lunatic ?

I'm actually speechless from reading this - I think I'll just take this as a comment and move on.

derekon

wretcheddomain wrote: »

I'm actually speechless from reading this - I think I'll just take this as a comment and move on.

Please do and let the rest of us make our comments on Evelyn's "intervention last night" - spectacular.

I love her non conforming nature, she is great to watch and by far the best presenter on RTE for Irish weather


D

Onthe3rdDay

She might be a good weather forecaster but P.R. wise she needs lessons. She went off and gave those that do long range predictions the Oxygen of publicity.

I genuinely hope this is a normal winter because if it turns out to be one of those rare severe winters this will be played again and again on clip shows.

A broken clock is right twice a day.

DOCARCH

Onthe3rdDay wrote: »

She might be a good weather forecaster but P.R. wise she needs lessons. She went off and gave those that do long range predictions the Oxygen of publicity.

I genuinely hope this is a normal winter because if it turns out to be one of those rare severe winters this will be played again and again on clip shows.

A broken clock is right twice a day.

?

The message I took from it was do not put your faith in long range forecasts...simply, nobody knows.

Leroy42

So let me get this straight. A weather forecaster basically admitted that they have no idea what is going to happen more than 10 days in advance and have a fairly uninspiring record on actual daily weather forecasts themselves has a go at amatuers for being less tthan reliable.

This might have some credit if she and her whole industry were not funded by millions of taxpayers money to basically tell us what happened today and have some vague notions of what may happen tomorrow (unless something different happens).

ninebeanrows

Leroy42 wrote: »

So let me get this straight. A weather forecaster basically admitted that they have no idea what is going to happen more than 10 days in advance and have a fairly uninspiring record on actual daily weather forecasts themselves has a go at amatuers for being less tthan reliable.

This might have some credit if she and her whole industry were not funded by millions of taxpayers money to basically tell us what happened today and have some vague notions of what may happen tomorrow (unless something different happens).

What a stupid uneducated post. Complete trash. I'm not even going to go to the trouble of outlining how you are so wrong as you don't deserve it.

Leroy42

Weathercheck wrote: »

What a stupid uneducated post. Complete trash. I'm not even going to go to the trouble of outlining how you are so wrong as you don't deserve it.

Can't be complete trash. She mentioned the 10 days herself so you can't argue with that.

So you use the weather forecasts excusivley to base your decisions on what to wear/bring to work etc?

The usual forecast of change of rain/showers & some sunny spells is hardly rocketscience. The whole industry is based on lack of actual knowledge (I fully accept the reason for this) but what other industry is given such a platform yet consistently fails to be accurate?

MetLuver

GO EVELYN!! She is a great addition to this country.

ninebeanrows

Leroy42 wrote: »

Can't be complete trash. She mentioned the 10 days herself so you can't argue with that.

So you use the weather forecasts excusivley to base your decisions on what to wear/bring to work etc?

The usual forecast of change of rain/showers & some sunny spells is hardly rocketscience. The whole industry is based on lack of actual knowledge (I fully accept the reason for this) but what other industry is given such a platform yet consistently fails to be accurate?

Go do some research mate before you type such inaccurate garbage.

Onthe3rdDay

DOCARCH wrote: »

?

The message I took from it was do not put your faith in long range forecasts...simply, nobody knows.

I understand but the last few weeks Met Eireann seem to have been on the offensive with Various members coming out saying that no one knows. It's aggressive and slightly nasty. No one really plans their winters according to the Postman in Donegal. He's an interesting light story at the end of a bulletin, nothing more. However, once you start to attack these types you come under the microscope yourself.

Met Eireann down through the years appear to be wrong a lot of the time. More so than other services. Now that might be appearances or just human nature, but I do know a lot of people that rely on YR.no and other weather forecasters for a more accurate forecast. I can't say if they are or are not accurate but that's what many already do.

Now if you have a bad winter, which is possible and it turns out that Donegal man and others are even half right, they'll have discreated Met Eireann, even if it's not factually correct.

It is something that I have noticed about those in the scientific community, they think they've worked out how the universe works but don't know how to deal with the public on a basic level. If they were a bit more humble the crackpots wouldn't get half as much exposure.

emo72

weisses wrote: »

What's the point for a weather forecaster to have a dig at the likes of Ken Ring, The Donegal postman or even MTC ??

Never thought she was that insecure .. sad really

i dont think she was having a go at MTC. his forecasting is extremely detailed.

Leroy42

Weathercheck wrote: »

Go do some research mate before you type such inaccurate garbage.

enough with the hyperbole. I made my opinion and you rubbished it. I asked you want part was so wrong for such a condescending reply and all you can say is I should do some research.

So again, what particular part or parts are garbage? it cant be the 1st line about limiting forecasts to 10 days or less as even Evelyn accepts that.

So perhaps you believe than the weather forecast industry is accurate rather than a best guess based on the current knowns which given the multitude of factors always leaves a significant amount of unknowns.

riffmongous

Onthe3rdDay wrote: »

It is something that I have noticed about those in the scientific community, they think they've worked out how the universe works but don't know how to deal with the public on a basic level. If they were a bit more humble the crackpots wouldn't get half as much exposure.

I dont believe this at all, I dont want to use the term crackpots but the non-scientific forecasters have gotten loads of attention the past few years, so how can people say that Evelyns message will give them more attention? Maybe if ME had been so forthright in the first place the amateurs would never have become popular.

[-0-]

What an absolute legend.

Onthe3rdDay

riffmongous wrote: »

I dont believe this at all, I dont want to use the term crackpots but the non-scientific forecasters have gotten loads of attention the past few years, so how can people say that Evelyns message will give them more attention? Maybe if ME had been so forthright in the first place the amateurs would never have become popular.

Okay, the Non-scientific forecasters have gotten loads of attention, but they always have. As the years have gone on proper weather forecasting has taken over. However, attacking them as certain elements of Met Eireann are now doing will give them more publicity. Most people are still not going to believe them (You will always have one or two but there's not much you can do about that)

However, the main problem is that the focus is going to shift onto Met Eireann if we do now have a bad winter. It may not be what they're saying but people are now starting to get the impression from ME that it's going to be an average Winter.

Certain people in the scientific community think they know a lot...and they do in many cases but they are hopeless when it comes to dealing with the public, the reason the Donegal Postman has an audience of any sort is that he comes across as non judgemental and just offering his opinion. He's not forcing it down anyone's throat. Members of the scientific community sometimes come across like a priest in an 1950's catholic church...it's my way or the highway and that doesn't work, in fact it makes people doubt.

Her performance on that forecast was ridiculous in many ways, People are tuning in for the weather forecast, not a point of view and that's how it comes across, that makes her look smaller to some.

It would be Different if Met Eireann got things right most of the time, but often they're out a good bit. People I know in two separate county councils got burnt by Met Eireann over the past few years and now it's the forecast that they trust the least. They're educated individuals that know that weather forecasts can't be 100 percent accurate all the time but over the last few years ME have been too far out too often.

When you don't have the best record you shouldn't be putting yourself on a pedestal. However, the best way to keep the confidence of the people is to remain humble and admit that you can make mistakes.

Lapin

Fair play to Evelyn.

I've heard her expressing her concern regarding dubious forecasters during interviews in the past and it is obvious she is (understandibly) irritated by the fact that people take people like Ring and the postman seriously.

Does the postman have a name by the way?

I don't have a problem with people like him making a name for themselves as long as people understand that its only a bit of nonsense. A bit like astrology. We all know its rubbish and the papers publish horoscopes everyday in the knowledge that very few people take it seriously.


Its a bit of fun and our postman's predictions should also be taken as such.
He has as much right as anyone to make predictions about the weather as anyone else. Its not private property after all. And the chances are he will get it right some of the time. The law of averages dictate that anyone would.

But that doesn't mean he should be taken seriously. Unfortunately however, the media latch on to those who carry with them a novelty factor, and a postman from Donegal fits the bill perfectly. A rural bike riding chap who takes in the wonders of nature on his rounds and uses his knowledge to predict the future. What better escapisim to read on a suburban bus through the unfinished ghost estates of town on a cold and frosty morning !

The problem is, his occasional accurate predictions are latched on to by fools who take him seriously and some in the media are quick to piggy back on this. They might as well canvass all those who read their horoscope the previous day to see if it was accurate. Chances are most people won't even remember what their star sign predicted for them the previous day, yet some of those who believe in it will gladly attempt to convince the rest of us that the alignment of planets at the time of our birth has an influence on how we influence others.

By all means lets have people like the postman add to the joviality of everyday life with his colourful contributions and appreciate his genuine love for all things natural.

But by no means take his meterological expertise seriously.
A simple question - Did his long range forecasts include accurate weather warnings for recent storms in England & Wales and the Philippines ?

Qualified, recognised and accredited forecasters with a backroom team of meterologists did. And I believe they saved many lives as a result.

I'd trust Evelyn Cusack and her team long before I'd take the word of some pants merchant with a penchant for getting his name out there (even though nobody knows what it is).

I'd happilly read our postman's daily forecast on the bus, train, tram..... in the morning and place them in the same category as Signs of the Zodiac predictions on the next page.

I'll have forgotton it by lunchtime.

But I'll still remember the weather forecast delivered by professionals the night before.


As for this -

Leroy42 wrote: »

Can't be complete trash. She mentioned the 10 days herself so you can't argue with that.

So you use the weather forecasts excusivley to base your decisions on what to wear/bring to work etc?

The usual forecast of change of rain/showers & some sunny spells is hardly rocketscience. The whole industry is based on lack of actual knowledge (I fully accept the reason for this) but what other industry is given such a platform yet consistently fails to be accurate?

Think about the highlighted part the next time you're sitting on a plane before she takes off.

Better still. Ask the Captain where he obtained his weather information in preparition for the flight -

- Met Éireann, who have been providing Air Traffic Control in this country with an excellent service for decades. A service that is trusted and employed by many overseas agencies as a reliable and respected source of meteorological expertise. One that airports at home and abroad, airlines both Irish and foreign have relied upon for many years. One of the few organisations on this island that helped alter the course of history for the better during World War II, and thus ensuring that we have the freedom we have to contribute to forums like this.

Or

- A man on a bike in Donegal ?

Leroy42

Lapin, an airplane requires weather for the immediate future. What is the wind speed like, where are the storms currently. That is not foreasting anymore than the animals are. I can tell you want the weather is like now and based on the wind and clouds could give a pretty good guess as to what the next few hours will bring.

So well done to Met Eireann for that service. I am not saying that ME don't provide a better forecast than the Donegal Postman or the like, but to use a paid for segment on National TV to try to PR your industry against percevied competition seems a little, well immature really.

ME are suppossed to forecast the weather, and by any measure they, and other forecasters, have less than perfect results. To then come on national TV and sneer at others for being less than accurate seems childish.

Maybe if Evelyn and her team spent more time pefecting their models rather than plotting way to dismiss anybody who questions their authority then wouldn't need to feel threatened. An industry, backed by millions of euro each year fighting against a Donegal Postman?

Even the tone of this thread conveys it. 'You show them Evelyn, you put them in their place, she even used Sagan quote etc etc'

Get over yourselves. Weatherforecasting for the average Joe is next to useless, it is so wide ranging as to be next to meaningless and no ordinary Joe places any reliance on it for their daily lives. It is useful to shipping, planes etc but why do we dedicate so much air time to it on a daily basis when the reports are meangingless. And now not only do we get the forecast we also have to listen to Evelyn sneer and be condesending to others.

camel jockey

What is a 'pants merchant'?

Pa ElGrande

Some remarks on science, pseudoscience, and learning how to not fool yourself.

Richard P Feynman in Cargo Cult Science wrote:

The first principle is that you must not fool yourself–and you are the easiest person to fool. So you have to be very careful about that. After you’ve not fooled yourself, it’s easy not to fool other scientists. You just have to be honest in a conventional way after that.

I would like to add something that’s not essential to the science, but something I kind of believe, which is that you should not fool the layman when you’re talking as a scientist. I am not trying to tell you what to do about cheating on your wife, or fooling your girlfriend, or something like that, when you’re not trying to be a scientist, but just trying to be an ordinary human being. We’ll leave those problems up to you and your rabbi. I’m talking about a specific, extra type of integrity that is not lying, but bending over backwards to show how you’re maybe wrong, that you ought to have when acting as a scientist. And this is our responsibility as scientists, certainly to other scientists, and I think to laymen.

read the rest

Andrew_Doran

Leroy42 wrote: »

To then come on national TV and sneer at others for being less than accurate seems childish.

Indeed. Whatever about the rest of it I thought the sniping at others was churlish and inappropriate.

They (M.E.) have also firmly thrown down the gauntlet.

snowstorm2013

This furore over Evelyn simply stating scientific fact is crazy. She was telling the Irish people that realistically the weather cannot be predicted more than 5 to 10 days in advance. No one doubts that trends in seasonal weather may sometimes be detected up to a fortnight or so in advance but any accuracy is not possible until it falls into the 5 -10 day range. The Donegal postman has called a white Christmas for Donegal. Co. Donegal is well positioned and has plenty of high ground so yes there is a high probability that snow will fall but does that constitute a white Christmas as the vast bulk of the population will not experience snow? The media should be approached by Met Eireann and told to stop publishing/promoting nonsense from such people as they promote anxiety among many people.... my cousins grand uncle lives at 300 metres in donegal... an isolated location and is already hyped up, not in a good way, about this winter. "The postman said this, the postman said that..... ", I asked him why does he and neighbours believe a postman and he answered" sure he has to be right he was on the television"!!

Red Nissan

I don't think she is correct to say that animals can't predict the weather. Nature signs do in fact just that, it's up to us to interpret them.