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Winter 2013/2014 FI Charts

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2

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    #32
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    I can feel the chill from here

    282294.png

    282295.png


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    #33
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Nice promising 6z ensembles , FI currently is the 4th of December though.


    282309.png


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    #34
    dopolahpec
    Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Nice promising 6z ensembles , FI currently is the 4th of December though.


    282309.png


    Yeah, looks like 6 or 7 hitting -10C uppers for Dublin, including Op and Control. That would certainly be snow potential?


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    #35
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    dopolahpec wrote: »
    Yeah, looks like 6 or 7 hitting -10C uppers for Dublin, including Op and Control. That would certainly be snow potential?

    Yep definitely , but because its a northerly we would need the showers to survive their way down inland. For this to happen we want to see some nice troughs embedded .

    Shall be fun next few days to watch the models :)

    7QkyXjL.gif


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    #36
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,946 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Charts have being showing it in FI for a while, only thing is it's always short lived !


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    #37
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    From a northerly Dublin would likely just have clear skies with the odd flurry, plenty of snow potential for Ulster and Connaught though. Obviously if the cold were to stick around then there'd be potential anywhere but it just like like a toppler at the moment


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    #38
    dopolahpec
    Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    Villain wrote: »
    Charts have being showing it in FI for a while, only thing is it's always short lived !
    It's not as short-lived as it might be, plenty evidence to suggest that if we get the northerly airflow it may last 3-4 days, today's 6zGFS for example


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    #39
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,946 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Well 12z doesn't show any real cold at all!


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    #40
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Villain wrote: »
    Well 12z doesn't show any real cold at all!

    Wait for the ensembles to see if its a outlier or not.

    EDIT: Yep , operational was a warm outlier on the ensembles , complete opposite to the 06z lol .

    282344.png

    Will be interesting to see how the ECM handles the situation now..


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    #41
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    06z ensembles. Alot of nice runs there including some snowy ones. But its FI at the 6th and 12z like the last few days could show a very different picture compared to the 6z once again...


    282461.png


    Cold or no cold in the end , its a joy to watch these runs!

    Bring on the 12z


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    #42
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Cant post charts , off to work shortly...

    12 z so far so good. Northerly still there. Snow for the north looks a giving , and then hopefully some good chances further south.

    BLIZZARD for scotland on this run ! lol


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    #43
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Jet stream further north on the 18z .. kicks up the low alot earlier an intensifies it alot more.

    282525.png

    This would be a repeat of this video from last year..

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPKb9z4l7eM
    :rolleyes:


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    #44
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Look whats popped up in FI to join the PARTY!!! :pac: :pac: :pac:
    282532.png








    omgwtf.gif


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    #45
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    12z ECM has serious cold coming down from the north from day 8 onwards, even has a small low embedded in the flow. Polar low formation is a real possibility next weekend if this came off as currently shown...





    Dan :)


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    #46
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    12z ECM has serious cold coming down from the north from day 8 onwards, even has a small low embedded in the flow. Polar low formation is a real possibility next weekend if this came off as currently shown...


    Dan :)

    12z was a bit of a cold 'outlier' but that little low sure is a very interesting feature in FI. Really whizzes down from Polar regions. IF (FI backways) that came of as forecast, could produce some colossal thunderstorm activity/high winds/blizzard conditions.

    7dCgPz.gif


    I think early Dec 1981 seen a similar feature hit Scotland but not 100% sure of that date.

    New Moon



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    #47
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    12z was a bit of a cold 'outlier' but that little low sure is a very interesting feature in FI. Really whizzes down from Polar regions. IF (FI backways) that came of as forecast, could produce some colossal thunderstorm activity/high winds/blizzard conditions.

    That was the most interesting feature on the ECM for sure. Now, we just need to move it a bit further west and delay the timing a tad.... :D


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    #48
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Now, we just need to move it a bit further west and delay the timing a tad.... :D

    Roll on the roar of the heavens.

    New Moon



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    #49
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,946 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    ECM 00z stuck to its guns for cold in FI but GFS is having none of it except for Northern Ireland for a few days


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    #50
    sean555
    Registered Users Posts: 196 ✭✭sean555


    GFS 6z has now changed its tune and falling in line with the ECM , -8 uppers flooding over the country from the north.


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    #51
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    sean555 wrote: »
    GFS 6z has now changed its tune and falling in line with the ECM , -8 uppers flooding over the country from the north.

    Cold but almost bone dry with high pressure moving over us. Would need to see something more like the ECM for snow shower potential up north.


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    #52
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Cold but almost bone dry with high pressure moving over us. Would need to see something more like the ECM for snow shower potential up north.

    Yep , ECM is the best of the bunch this morning with the cold air + some low pressure nearby.


    ECM ensemble mean for Dublin painting a close call in terms of any wintry precipitation. Lets hope the op keeps to its guns and the other models follow suit :)

    282580.png

    282581.png


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    #53
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    This is what we want to see more of!!! :D


    283072.png


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    #54
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    This would be a very unsettling picture

    283075.png


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    #55
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,196 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Latest from Matt Hugo oon Twitter:

    "CFSv2 supports EC32 in terms of pressure patterns with a really strong signal for high pressure to the N/NE of the UK"

    BDA4165676FE41C4A1531754009E260D-0000334566-0003448436-00800L-FF81020873904692A6941681117E00DF.png


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    #56
    rickdangerouss
    Registered Users Posts: 244 ✭✭rickdangerouss


    Where good exists, so does evil.

    ECM1-240.GIF?03-12

    gens-0-1-384.png?12


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    #57
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Recm2401.gif


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    #58
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    Recm2401.gif



    spiderman_crying.gif





    ..........

    283101.png


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    #59
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    :eek:

    Hopefully the others pick up on this after a truly deflating days model watching

    283144.png

    283145.png


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    #60
    123 LC
    Registered Users Posts: 670 ✭✭✭123 LC


    Christmas day? the CFS?

    cfs-2-522.png?00

    Seemslegit.gif


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    #61
    rickdangerouss
    Registered Users Posts: 244 ✭✭rickdangerouss


    Santa would be in flight alright, without the reindeer's.. :)

    gfs-0-384.png?0


    I do not think we would get any snow either, sleet on high ground and cold rain for the rest of us. :(


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