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Official Conor McGregor Thread (READ MOD WARNING IN OP)
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(slightly off topic Mod, apologies but perhaps an interesting topic about betting odds and how to understand them!)
Re: the coin flip analogy. *WARNING, SOME MATHS AHEAD! CONCENTRATE!
*
The term for this is "results based reasoning".
It happens a lot in Poker, which is another of my interests.
People make some terrible bet and then when their required Ace miraculously turns up on the last card and they say "see, told you I was right to make the bet".
(A common saying in poker is: Its an easy game to play backwards).
You cant use past results to justify past actions in that way. You can, of course, use past results to justify future belief. This is where the coin analogy breaks down. See, we already KNOW the coin should be 50/50. Physics and common sense tells us that.
Suppose instead I had a computer generate a random number and 15 times in a row the computer spits out "4". With no further information, if asked to bet on the next number, I'm betting on 4!
Suppose I'm told that the computer is picking between two numbers (say 4 and 5) but with unequal (non-zero) probability? Now I'm not so sure of my bet, but I'm still going with 4. However I cant say for certain it will be 4, and if it comes up 4 I cant claim to always have been 100% right to go with 4.
Probabilities are weird things. More than people know.
Here's a famous game for you to play:
An evil villain offers you 3 boxes. You are told 2 are rigged to electrocute you if you open them. The third has 1 meeeeeeellion (sp?) quid in it.
You select a box and before its opened the villain takes one of the two remaining boxes and shows you that it really was rigged to kill. He discards that box and leaves you with your selected box and the last remaining box you didn't select.
He offers you the chance to change your mind:
Should you:
1. Change your mind and go with the other box. Cos now its 50/50
2. Stick with the first box you chose. Cos its still 1 in 3 that you chose the money in the first place.
I'll only accept answers with explanations of *why* its right
I change the box as it increases my options, It's statistics that changes it on probability, goes from like a 33.3% chance to a 66% chance if you switch iirc.
I probably explained it poorly, but it's known as the monty hall problem if people want to see it explained right0 -
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(slightly off topic Mod, apologies but perhaps an interesting topic about betting odds and how to understand them!)
Re: the coin flip analogy. *WARNING, SOME MATHS AHEAD! CONCENTRATE! *
The term for this is "results based reasoning".
It happens a lot in Poker, which is another of my interests.
People make some terrible bet and then when their required Ace miraculously turns up on the last card and they say "see, told you I was right to make the bet".
(A common saying in poker is: Its an easy game to play backwards).
You cant use past results to justify past actions in that way. You can, of course, use past results to justify future belief. This is where the coin analogy breaks down. See, we already KNOW the coin should be 50/50. Physics and common sense tells us that.
Suppose instead I had a computer generate a random number and 15 times in a row the computer spits out "4". With no further information, if asked to bet on the next number, I'm betting on 4!
Suppose I'm told that the computer is picking between two numbers (say 4 and 5) but with unequal (non-zero) probability? Now I'm not so sure of my bet, but I'm still going with 4. However I cant say for certain it will be 4, and if it comes up 4 I cant claim to always have been 100% right to go with 4.
Probabilities are weird things. More than people know.
Here's a famous game for you to play:
An evil villain offers you 3 boxes. You are told 2 are rigged to electrocute you if you open them. The third has 1 meeeeeeellion (sp?) quid in it.
You select a box and before its opened the villain takes one of the two remaining boxes and shows you that it really was rigged to kill. He discards that box and leaves you with your selected box and the last remaining box you didn't select.
He offers you the chance to change your mind:
Should you:
1. Change your mind and go with the other box. Cos now its 50/50
2. Stick with the first box you chose. Cos its still 1 in 3 that you chose the money in the first place.
I'll only accept answers with explanations of *why* its right
Edit your post :PYou literally almost answered the Monty Hall Problem in your post, but there's actually a 66.6666*% chance it's behind the other box and a 33.333333*% chance it's behind the first.0 -
Join Date:Posts: 29920
Yaa boooo, you're no funraze_them_all_ wrote: »I change the box as it increases my options, It's statistics that changes it on probability, goes from like a 33.3% chance to a 66% chance if you switch iirc.
I probably explained it poorly, but it's known as the monty hall problem if people want to see it explained right
Yes its counter intuitive but you should switch your choice. And its not 50/50 either, its counter-intuitively, 66%. (so actually I was being mean and misleading everyone with the two options... I know, I'm a rotter )
Like I said, odds are funny things that people instinctively don't understand.0 -
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Yaa boooo, you're no fun
Yes its counter intuitive but you should switch your choice. And its not 50/50 either, its counter-intuitively, 66%.
Like I said, odds are funny things that people instinctively don't understand.
you've a 66% chance of goat, when he removes one goat it completely changes the problem, as probability says you''ve picked a goat first. When he gets one out of the way you change as statistically you've chosen a goat, so the car is the one you've not picked, prob explain it a bit better0 -
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Join Date:Posts: 29920
I have personally flipped a coin (across a room no less!) and had it land on its edge. (It freaked everyone the fnck out too!).raze_them_all_ wrote: »a coin flip is slightly less than 50/50....also to see something ridiculous check out the coin flip in the packer/cardinals overtime last night
I've played games of poker where I've seen two people be dealt straight flushes. And several other bizarre oddities... There are 7 billion people on the planet, the chances are that 7,000 of them experience 1 in a million events every day 0 -
I have personally flipped a coin (across a room no less!) and had it land on its edge. (It freaked everyone the fnck out too!).
I've played games of poker where I've seen two people be dealt straight flushes. And several other bizarre oddities... There are 7 billion people on the planet, the chances are that 7,000 of them experience 1 in a million events every day
I got knocked out two weeks in a row by a guy with quad 3's starting with the same hole cards both times
that stung 0 -
An evil villain offers you 3 boxes. You are told 2 are rigged to electrocute you if you open them. The third has 1 meeeeeeellion (sp?) quid in it.
You select a box and before its opened the villain takes one of the two remaining boxes and shows you that it really was rigged to kill. He discards that box and leaves you with your selected box and the last remaining box you didn't select.
He offers you the chance to change your mind:
Should you:
1. Change your mind and go with the other box. Cos now its 50/50
2. Stick with the first box you chose. Cos its still 1 in 3 that you chose the money in the first place.
I'll only accept answers with explanations of *why* its right
I've not looked at the other answers1 - I would take the other box now in exchange. Why? Well because Kevin Spacey told me too in that blackjack film 21
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Coin flipping analogy is irrelevant in this discussion absolute pie in the sky,we cant have 10000 fights (flips) needed for your averages
What do averages have to do with anything.
If you flip a coin once its 50/50. Even if it comes up heads 5 times in a row. The next is still 50/50.
How this applies to fighting, is that each fight has a certain unknown chance of winning. Trying to figure out those chances is basically the key to profit from betting.
I'm not discrediting your prediction. I've made the same prediction (Conor by KO*), How can you still not get that.so its garbage talk,again its you covering your arse if no matter the result,discrediting my prediction on the fight incase it comes to fruition,
I'm saying that pretending that it 100% guaranteed isn't ridiculous hyperbole, belongs on other forums, and has no place in inteligent discussion. And also that I know you don't actually believe it.
*I haven't evaluated the round yet, I'll wait to hear which one gets me into the after party for free (hasn't lost yet)An evil villain offers you 3 boxes. You are told 2 are rigged to electrocute you if you open them. The third has 1 meeeeeeellion (sp?) quid in it.
You select a box and before its opened the villain takes one of the two remaining boxes and shows you that it really was rigged to kill. He discards that box and leaves you with your selected box and the last remaining box you didn't select.
He offers you the chance to change your mind:
Should you:
1. Change your mind and go with the other box. Cos now its 50/50
2. Stick with the first box you chose. Cos its still 1 in 3 that you chose the money in the first place.[/I]
I'll only accept answers with explanations of *why* its right
It's 50% whether you switch or not. (There's also a case to be made that it's 0% if you switch, 100% if you stay)
Reason being that the above problem is missing one detail, which means its not a Monty Hall.
I won't say what it is just yet, and give the guys who said it was 66% a chance to spot what I'm talking about.0 -
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If you pick a box, that's 33.3... % chance. If you switch it's 66.6... % chance. Because if you pick the correct box originally, then switching it will result in a loss. But if you pick either of the other boxes originally, then switching it will result in a win. So if you always switch, you have a 1 in 3 chance of losing, and a 2 in 3 chance of winning, or 66.6...% So ALWAYS SWITCH!(slightly off topic Mod, apologies but perhaps an interesting topic about betting odds and how to understand them!)
Re: the coin flip analogy. *WARNING, SOME MATHS AHEAD! CONCENTRATE! *
The term for this is "results based reasoning".
It happens a lot in Poker, which is another of my interests.
People make some terrible bet and then when their required Ace miraculously turns up on the last card and they say "see, told you I was right to make the bet".
(A common saying in poker is: Its an easy game to play backwards).
You cant use past results to justify past actions in that way. You can, of course, use past results to justify future belief. This is where the coin analogy breaks down. See, we already KNOW the coin should be 50/50. Physics and common sense tells us that.
Suppose instead I had a computer generate a random number and 15 times in a row the computer spits out "4". With no further information, if asked to bet on the next number, I'm betting on 4!
Suppose I'm told that the computer is picking between two numbers (say 4 and 5) but with unequal (non-zero) probability? Now I'm not so sure of my bet, but I'm still going with 4. However I cant say for certain it will be 4, and if it comes up 4 I cant claim to always have been 100% right to go with 4.
Probabilities are weird things. More than people know.
Here's a famous game for you to play:
An evil villain offers you 3 boxes. You are told 2 are rigged to electrocute you if you open them. The third has 1 meeeeeeellion (sp?) quid in it.
You select a box and before its opened the villain takes one of the two remaining boxes and shows you that it really was rigged to kill. He discards that box and leaves you with your selected box and the last remaining box you didn't select.
He offers you the chance to change your mind:
Should you:
1. Change your mind and go with the other box. Cos now its 50/50
2. Stick with the first box you chose. Cos its still 1 in 3 that you chose the money in the first place.
I'll only accept answers with explanations of *why* its right0 -
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Normally I'd agree that this is the best way to explain it.If you pick a box, that's 33.3... % chance. If you switch it's 66.6... % chance. Because if you pick the correct box originally, then switching it will result in a loss. But if you pick either of the other boxes originally, then switching it will result in a win. So if you always switch, you have a 1 in 3 chance of losing, and a 2 in 3 chance of winning, or 66.6...% So ALWAYS SWITCH!
But in this case, its not right, as the problem Dev posted has a tiny, but crucial, difference. And was possibly unintentional.
...getting warmerIt's also important to remember that the villain always opens one of the death boxes, and never the one with the money
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I'm out of ideas, I understand that for this to work, the villain needs to know what's inside each box, and have no ill intentions! He always takes away a death box, therefore adding new information to the puzzle. I'm starting to think you have noticed something in the wording that was a typo or oversight or something? Either way, PM me if you don't want to post here, it's wrecking my head, and my boss is sick of me talking about it.Normally I'd agree that this is the best way to explain it.
But in this case, its not right, as the problem Dev posted has a tiny, but crucial, difference. And was possibly unintentional.
...getting warmer0 -
wpYeah, he brought in Ryan Hall (no relation to Monty) during his last camp.
I've bolded the key word. The didn't say anywhere that he was always going to take away a death box. Unlike the game show, where Monty Hall always offers the switch. That key difference changes everything, and enables the villain to influence you away from the car if you chose it originally.I'm out of ideas, I understand that for this to work, the villain needs to know what's inside each box, and have no ill intentions! He always takes away a death box, therefore adding new information to the puzzle. I'm starting to think you have noticed something in the wording that was a typo or oversight or something? Either way, PM me if you don't want to post here, it's wrecking my head, and my boss is sick of me talking about it.
Also, he's an evil villain, he absolutely has ill intentions. 0 -
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I believe that was just a mistake in how he worded it, but he did say he would reveal a box showing that it was rigged to blow! So I think it was the OP's attempt to make that point.wp
I've bolded the key word. The didn't say anywhere that he was always going to take away a death box. Unlike the game show, where Monty Hall always offers the switch. That key difference changes everything, and enables the villain to influence you away from the car if you chose it originally.
Also, he's an evil villain, he absolutely has ill intentions.0
This discussion has been closed.
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