Unders/Overs Trading & Lay Away Fav

Matt_Trakker

Something I've been doing since this season started... thought I'd share.

I back Unders, best when it's over Evens, but lowest I'd go with would be 1.85. Check stats and average time of scoring (e.g. here, 3/4 ways down the page) and back Under 2.5 when the stats show rare goals in first 15mins and trade out after 15mins.

Also use this page, for example Southampton at home this season, have scored only 6 1st half goals this season, 0 have come in the first 15mins...bet I've jinxed that now

You can cover some of your stake by betting on a goal to be scored in 0-15 if you wish.

Another option to grab a few ticks is to immediately back Unders once a goal is scored, stay in the trade for 5-10minutes then hedge out for a profit.

0-15mins Unders Trading Tonight:
Southamption - Villa
West Brom - City
Fulham - Spurs

Another strategy I stumbled upon was laying the away fav, I spoke about it in another thread, but I want to start logging it for more to see.

Lay Away Favs tonight:
Chelsea
City

paulo6891

Would it not be easier to just back no goals in the 1st 15 mins (because that price will be exactly the same as the price change that you see when the odds drift/shorten over the 15 min interval!). It would save you the hassle of worrying about trading.

Matt_Trakker

typical eh?

Unders before 15mins.
Southamption - Villa loser Villa score before the 15min mark (flashscores giving the goal at 15mins, so obviously scored 14-something.
West Brom - City loser
Fulham - Spurs winner

Lay Away Fav
Chelsea loser Sunderland made a good go of it though
City loser

Not the perfect start, but long term I'm confident I'll be posting a lot more green ones.

Matt_Trakker

paulo6891 wrote: »

Would it not be easier to just back no goals in the 1st 15 mins (because that price will be exactly the same as the price change that you see when the odds drift/shorten over the 15 min interval!). It would save you the hassle of worrying about trading.

I'm open to correction of course, but I think I'd be making better profit trading out of Unders at 15mins rather than backing a straight bet where the odds would be pretty low, 1.25 kinda thing.

paulo6891

It would work out the same.

The goal expectancy of the 1st 15 minutes would be used to create the price of 'no goals after 15 minutes'.

The goal expectancy of the 1st 15 minutes would also be used to create the price difference between the unders at 0 mins and the unders at 15 mins.

Now, I don't know if there is a 0-0 market after 15 minutes. But you see some people who's strategy is to say, back the home team and then lay them when they score. That odds differential is exactly the same as just backing the home team to score first (and given commission on BF, you're probably better off backing with a bookie!).

Matt_Trakker

Fair play Paulo, thanks for that.

Will keep putting them up and the Lay Away Favs too.

For the Premier League this weekend,
Lay Man City at Southampton
Lay Chelsea at Stoke
Lay Spurs at Sunderland

Will look at the Unders0-15/no goal before 15mins later

From the Bundesliga
Lay Away Favs:
Wolfsburg at Freiburg
Hertha Berlin at Braunschweig

You could lay Bayern Munich at Bremen too and if Bremen score first cash out....but can't see than happening

Matt_Trakker

No goal in first 15

Sunderland-Spurs
Palace-Cardiff
Southamption-City
West Brom-Norwich

Matt_Trakker

Results:
Lay Man City at Southampton - win
Lay Chelsea at Stoke - win
Lay Spurs at Sunderland - 90minute loss (with Sunderland scoring first you could've traded out for a profit)


Lay Away Favs:
Wolfsburg at Freiburg - loss
Hertha Berlin at Braunschweig - loss


No goal in first 15
Sunderland-Spurs - win
Palace-Cardiff - loss
Southamption-City - loss
West Brom-Norwich - loss

Matt_Trakker

Lay favourites for today's CL

Lay Juve, Dortmund and Zenit

Matt_Trakker

Juve win
Dortmund loss
Zenit win

Matt_Trakker

Lay Dortmund @ Hoffenheim
Lay ManU @ Villa

Something else to add this weekend.
Taking Heavy Favourites in Handicap markets:

Hertha -1 Vs Weder
Bayern -2.75 Vs Hamburg
Augsburg -1 Vs Braunschweig
Schalke -1.23 Vs Freiburg
Bayer -1.25 Vs Frankfurt
Chelsea -2 Vs Palace
Everton -1.25 Vs Fulham

paulo6891

Just another tip...

Don't forget about betfair commission when laying selections. you're effectively getting 2.185 on backing man utd not to win, i can see 2.25 with another bookmaker. little things like that...

Matt_Trakker

Matt_Trakker wrote: »

Lay Dortmund @ Hoffenheim win
Lay ManU @ Villa loss

Something else to add this weekend.
Taking Heavy Favourites in Handicap markets:

Hertha -1 Vs Weder push
Bayern -2.75 Vs Hamburg loss
Augsburg -1 Vs Braunschweig win
Schalke -1.23 Vs Freiburg win
Bayer -1.25 Vs Frankfurt loss
Chelsea -2 Vs Palace loss
Everton -1.25 Vs Fulham win

Only 4 wins and a push from 9 bets, could've been better, but suppose could've been worse too.

Matt_Trakker

As paulo pointed out, (thanks man) rather than simply laying teams it's better to scout around for prices and back Home Win/Draw Double Chance.

So from now on, I'll call these bets 'Oppose Favourite'.

This weekend's Oppose Favourites:
Leverkusen @ Werder
Hoffenheim @ Braunschweig
Schalke @ Nurnberg

Man City @ Fulham
Newcastle @ Palace
Everton @ Swansea

Handicaps:
Dortmund -1.5 Vs Hertha Berlin
Liverpool -1.75 Vs Cardiff
Man United -1.5 Vs West Ham

Matt_Trakker

Results added

Matt_Trakker wrote: »

This weekend's Oppose Favourites:
Leverkusen @ Werder win
Hoffenheim @ Braunschweig win
Schalke @ Nurnberg win

Man City @ Fulham loss
Newcastle @ Palace loss
Everton @ Swansea loss

Handicaps:
Dortmund -1.5 Vs Hertha Berlin loss
Liverpool -1.75 Vs Cardiff win
Man United -1.5 Vs West Ham win

Matt_Trakker

Was away for Christmas, didn't bet much and didn't have time to keep records: have updated record in previous post.

Had 2 for today, but will only go with the Hibs - Hearts ones.

Tips for the Kilmarnock - St Mirren game were Over 2.5, Kilmarnock score first and lay 0-0 HT.........but it's already kicked off so I'm too late

Hibs Vs Hearts,
Over 2.5
Hibs to score first

Matt_Trakker

Yesterday's results:

Matt_Trakker wrote: »

Tips for the Kilmarnock - St Mirren game were Over 2.5, Kilmarnock score first and lay 0-0 HT.........but it's already kicked off so I'm too late
Would've been 2 from 3 :mad:

Hibs Vs Hearts,
Over 2.5 win
Hibs to score first win

Matt_Trakker

today's bets

Lay Wolves @ Gillingham
Over 2.5
Lay 0-0 HT

Matt_Trakker

Shocking match

Matt_Trakker wrote: »

today's bets

Lay Wolves @ Gillingham lost
Over 2.5 lost
Lay 0-0 HT lost

Matt_Trakker

today's games:

Udinese Vs Verona Over 2.5

Lazio Vs Inter, BTTS

Real Madrid Vs Celta Vigo, Real -2.5, -3

Lay Villareal @ Vallecano

Matt_Trakker

Results:

Matt_Trakker wrote: »

today's games:

Udinese Vs Verona Over 2.5 win

Lazio Vs Inter, BTTS loss

Real Madrid Vs Celta Vigo, Real -2.5, -3 half loss

Lay Villareal @ Vallecano loss

Matt_Trakker

Shrewsbury Vs Leyton Orient, lay the draw

Sunderland Vs Man United, Man U win

Matt_Trakker

Results:

Matt_Trakker wrote: »

Shrewsbury Vs Leyton Orient, lay the draw win

Sunderland Vs Man United, Man U win loss

Matt_Trakker

Roma - Sampdoria, Roma win
Udinese - Inter LTD
Forest Green - Hereford, Forest Green win

Matt_Trakker

Results

Matt_Trakker wrote: »

Roma - Sampdoria, Roma win, win
Udinese - Inter LTD, win
Forest Green - Hereford, Forest Green win, loss

Matt_Trakker

Montpellier - Monaco, LTD
Leicester - Derby, LTD

Tomorrow:
Lay Chelsea @ Hull

Matt_Trakker

Results@

Matt_Trakker wrote: »

Montpellier - Monaco, LTD loss
Leicester - Derby, LTD win

Tomorrow:
Lay Chelsea @ Hull

Matt_Trakker

Lay Chelsea @ Hull
Fulham - Sunderland, Draw, Over 2.5,
West Ham, Double Chance
Everton -1, -1.5
Man U - Swansea, BTTS

Ath Madrid - Barca, BTTS, Over 2.5, Over 3.5
Ajaccio - PSG, Under 2.5

Matt_Trakker

Results:

Matt_Trakker wrote: »

Lay Chelsea @ Hull loss
Fulham - Sunderland, Draw, Over 2.5, loss, win
West Ham, Double Chance win
Everton -1, -1.5 win
Man U - Swansea, BTTS loss

Ath Madrid - Barca, BTTS, Over 2.5, Over 3.5 loss, loss, loss :mad::mad:, such a crap match
Ajaccio - PSG, Under 2.5 loss

Matt_Trakker

Aston Villa Vs Arsenal, lay Arsenal, Over 2.5 goals

Sampdoria - Udinese, LTD
Inter Vs Chievo, Inter -1

Villarreal v Real Sociedad, LTD

Matt_Trakker

Results:

Matt_Trakker wrote: »

Aston Villa Vs Arsenal, lay Arsenal, Over 2.5 goals, loss, win

Sampdoria - Udinese, LTD win
Inter Vs Chievo, Inter -1 loss

Villarreal v Real Sociedad, LTD win