Buying 2014

caew · 09-01-2014 4:02pm

handlemaster wrote: »

If people bother to show up early in the morning it shows interest. More importantly was sale agreed within two weeks. If property is not selling in Dublin it has been priced to high simple not because of low demand.

I don't know if you can judge the level of someones interest by the time they attend a viewing.

Convenience is probably a big factor in the time people book viewings for.

Obviously if a house sold in two weeks there was interest by the person who bought it does mean either that there was huge demand, the seller may have been looking a quick sale and did the deal.

o1s1n · 09-01-2014 4:03pm

caew wrote: »

People looking at houses doesn't automatically mean there is a demand for that house....

No, but lots of people looking at houses means there's a demand for houses - isn't that what's being discussed?

The demand of a specific house doesn't really have anything to do with the overall demand - as you said, there may be no demand for it because of a multitude of reasons. Doesn't mean lots of people don't want to buy houses now.

caew · 09-01-2014 4:12pm

o1s1n wrote: »

No, but lots of people looking at houses means there's a demand for houses - isn't that what's being discussed?

The demand of a specific house doesn't really have anything to do with the overall demand - as you said, there may be no demand for it because of a multitude of reasons. Doesn't mean lots of people don't want to buy houses now.

Doesn't mean they do want to buy either. There are is an assumed correlation here.

Personally if I viewed a house and the estate agent told me there was 1000 viewings or 1 viewing it would make no difference to me. Some people may react if they hear there are lots of viewings and see it as a reflection of demand and that is up to you to do so.

I react when I hear of the offers, that is when I know there is a genuine 'demand' for the house, someone has shown their intention to buy.

Bepolite · 09-01-2014 4:25pm

In relation to price increases this is what I've read, based on last quarter.

Dublin West prices actually fell, South Co. Dublin saw a tiny increase (less than 1%). The city centre saw increases but this was fueled by increases on properties sub €200,000 so these saw large % increases but not large in terms of € valve.

Supply is an absolute nightmare which is fueling a mini-bubble/dead cat bounce/price stabilisation what ever you want to call it.

I welcome any corrections.

o1s1n · 09-01-2014 5:04pm

caew wrote: »

Doesn't mean they do want to buy either.

Can we not assume that people who view houses are in the market to buy houses? I know correlation doesn't imply causation as the saying goes, but why else would someone view a house?

And and that, would those viewing houses for reasons other than potentially being in the market to buy a house not be considered a minority?

caew wrote: »

Personally if I viewed a house and the estate agent told me there was 1000 viewings or 1 viewing it would make no difference to me. Some people may react if they hear there are lots of viewings and see it as a reflection of demand and that is up to you to do so.

I react when I hear of the offers, that is when I know there is a genuine 'demand' for the house, someone has shown their intention to buy.

I'm not going by what an estate agent told me though, would always take that with a pinch of salt.

I'm going by what I've witnessed at a load of viewings.

All of them were packed with people. Granted, some were probably tyre kicker/rubbernecking types - but you could see there were many genuine parties there.

Another thing which reflected the demand in the area, the speed in which they sold. Quite a volume of the ones I viewed didn't even make it to property websites. Listed and sold within a week or two of going up.

handlemaster · 09-01-2014 5:38pm

caew wrote: »

I don't know if you can judge the level of someones interest by the time they attend a viewing.

Convenience is probably a big factor in the time people book viewings for.

Obviously if a house sold in two weeks there was interest by the person who bought it does mean either that there was huge demand, the seller may have been looking a quick sale and did the deal.

Your probably right they turned up for the craic !!!

Glenbhoy · 09-01-2014 5:50pm

HouseHunter13 wrote: »

is it just me or is there very little added to daft/myhome at the moment?

thought January would be busy time with new sales/stock no?

Most estate agents only opened again on Monday, if supply is to increase this year, then it will be mid Feb imo before that becomes evident - that's normally just before the prime selling season starts.

Glenbhoy · 09-01-2014 6:12pm

handlemaster wrote: »

I would disagree. Went to a viewing late last year in Dublin 15 there were 13/14 different parties viewing. The demand is there alright. People forget you Dont stop living g because of a recession. People want to have there own place the desire to own is very strong in Ireland.

There's at least two types of demand (I say 'at least', as I'm no economist and am coining the terminology on the fly;)). Aspirational demand and Viable demand.

Aspirational demand refers to what are commonly known as tyre-kickers, Viable demand refers to those walking into the viewing with an approval in principle letter in their back pocket.

Given the number and value of mortgages issued and drawn down over the past year, it's reasonable to assume that a good proportion of viewers are aspirational.

For me, the key factor out there at present is that mortgages are (or were as at the end of Sept) approx 5% of the level they were at at their peak levels in 2006, and even more surprisingly, they are currently running below their levels in 2010, 2011 and 2012.

Below are the figures for the first three quarters of the years in question:

2010 - €3,764M
2011 - €1,824M
2012 - €1,637M
2013 - €1,599M

Standard Toaster · 09-01-2014 7:01pm

o1s1n wrote: »

Another thing which reflected the demand in the area, the speed in which they sold. Quite a volume of the ones I viewed didn't even make it to property websites. Listed and sold within a week or two of going up.

Can I ask did you become aware of these properties, the ones that were not listed online etc.

o1s1n · 10-01-2014 9:08am

Standard Toaster wrote: »

Can I ask did you become aware of these properties, the ones that were not listed online etc.

Yeah, by checking in with all the estate agents in Bray every 1-2 weeks and asking was there anything new on the horizon.

You'd be surprised how many just dont make it to being listed online. Ground work is definitely needed.

Its an absolute pain and time consuming - but does pay off. Resulted in Estate agents ringing me about new houses coming up in my desired areas.

jmayo · 10-01-2014 11:32am

handlemaster wrote: »

If people bother to show up early in the morning it shows interest...

handlemaster wrote: »

Your probably right they turned up for the craic !!!

Actually I knew a couple of people who used to go to viewings almost as a hobby.
Yes they had property already and may have been in market for more, but they went to viewings at weekends almost as a day out.
They saw it as a way of keepig up to speed with the market.
Granted this was pre bubble economy.
God knows how they managed when that arrived with all the champagne and
canapés at all the glam new development showings.

Plus you do get to see inside other people's houses if you are that way inclined.

I agree with caew and Glenboy on this.
It doesn't matter if a 1000 view the house, the key is how many want or are capable of making an offer.

handlemaster · 10-01-2014 2:42pm

jmayo wrote: »

Actually I knew a couple of people who used to go to viewings almost as a hobby.
Yes they had property already and may have been in market for more, but they went to viewings at weekends almost as a day out.
They saw it as a way of keepig up to speed with the market.
Granted this was pre bubble economy.
God knows how they managed when that arrived with all the champagne and
canapés at all the glam new development showings.

Plus you do get to see inside other people's houses if you are that way inclined.

I agree with caew and Glenboy on this.
It doesn't matter if a 1000 view the house, the key is how many want or are capable of making an offer.

Property is selling in Dublin .. that's demand satisfied.

Theboinkmaster · 10-01-2014 3:01pm

Glenbhoy wrote: »

There's at least two types of demand (I say 'at least', as I'm no economist and am coining the terminology on the fly;)). Aspirational demand and Viable demand.

Aspirational demand refers to what are commonly known as tyre-kickers, Viable demand refers to those walking into the viewing with an approval in principle letter in their back pocket.

Given the number and value of mortgages issued and drawn down over the past year, it's reasonable to assume that a good proportion of viewers are aspirational.

For me, the key factor out there at present is that mortgages are (or were as at the end of Sept) approx 5% of the level they were at at their peak levels in 2006, and even more surprisingly, they are currently running below their levels in 2010, 2011 and 2012.

Below are the figures for the first three quarters of the years in question:

2010 - €3,764M
2011 - €1,824M
2012 - €1,637M
2013 - €1,599M

I'd expect that given the low volume of transactions and we've heard at least half (65%?) of house sales in dublin in 2013 were cash.

gaius c · 10-01-2014 3:54pm

handlemaster wrote: »

Property is selling in Dublin .. that's demand satisfied.

By the same logic, the property market was grand in Leitrim in 2006!

handlemaster · 10-01-2014 4:30pm

gaius c wrote: »

By the same logic, the property market was grand in Leitrim in 2006!

I'm talking about demand, not opinion on what is happening is good or bad

gaius c · 10-01-2014 4:44pm

handlemaster wrote: »

I'm talking about demand, not opinion on what is happening is good or bad

Transaction volume is tiny so demand is also rather small too?

lima · 25-01-2014 3:29pm

It appears that most of the sales in January in Dublin are for very low amounts. Lots of small apatrments etc.

What do people think of this?

Perhaps it's a sign of the big cash buyers drying up and the lump sum pension joe soaps getting in on the action..

snakeoilsales · 25-01-2014 5:29pm

Its a sign that the rich Irish are waiting for prices to increase...

Only crap on the market now...

The rich Irish will have a nice summer...I'm sure they have already bough their BBq in the sales,

handlemaster · 26-01-2014 10:33am

I'd say there will be a hold off or pull back until the later half of this year then a surge again as people realise prices havent abated all that much.

moxin · 26-01-2014 2:28pm

handlemaster wrote: »

I'd say there will be a hold off or pull back until the later half of this year then a surge again as people realise prices havent abated all that much.

You've changed your tune

Pull back means a fall in prices?

handlemaster · 26-01-2014 2:40pm

moxin wrote: »

You've changed your tune

Pull back means a fall in prices?

Not at all . The demand will still be there just a little hesitation from buyers and sellers alike. It can be seen prices in some cases are jumping to much in a short space of time.

lima · 26-01-2014 3:50pm

handlemaster wrote: »

Not at all . The demand will still be there just a little hesitation from buyers and sellers alike. It can be seen prices in some cases are jumping to much in a short space of time.

It would be nice to get a break from trying to compete with investors with cash. It's really disappointing to be putting effort into just wanting to buy my first home and having to compete with lads who stashed a few quid away from the boom :rolleyes:

handlemaster · 26-01-2014 4:57pm

lima wrote: »

It would be nice to get a break from trying to compete with investors with cash. It's really disappointing to be putting effort into just wanting to buy my first home and having to compete with lads who stashed a few quid away from the boom :rolleyes:

Wait until the banks start lending proper them you will wish you'd stuck it out and bought now

lima · 26-01-2014 7:48pm

handlemaster wrote: »

Wait until the banks start lending proper them you will wish you'd stuck it out and bought now

Yeah it's a possibility alright, get in ahead of a potential upswing in lending. A lot of those people would need deposits which they mightn't have yet

handlemaster · 26-01-2014 7:54pm

lima wrote: »

Yeah it's a possibility alright, get in ahead of a potential upswing in lending. A lot of those people would need deposits which they mightn't have yet

I'd expect people who don't have deposit therefore would not be getting mortgages no matter what. I Dont see why they would even be talking about buying a property.

gaius c · 26-01-2014 10:50pm

lima wrote: »

It appears that most of the sales in January in Dublin are for very low amounts. Lots of small apatrments etc.

What do people think of this?

Perhaps it's a sign of the big cash buyers drying up and the lump sum pension joe soaps getting in on the action..

1. Jan is always a quiet month.
2. PPR takes a while to update.

kennyb3 · 27-01-2014 12:00pm

gaius c wrote: »

1. Jan is always a quiet month.
2. PPR takes a while to update.

Mr.McLovin · 27-01-2014 3:03pm

runawaybishop wrote: »

The no LPT isn't really an incentive, its minuscule.

seeing the numbers on the ppr for decemeber it seems it was a good enough incentive for a lot of people!

lima · 27-01-2014 6:06pm

kennyb3 wrote: »

I guess people sometimes see what they want to see

They sure do, I see mostly cheap properties being sold??

kennyb3 · 28-01-2014 10:06am

lima wrote: »

They sure do, I see mostly cheap properties being sold??

Okay lets look at what you said;

lima wrote: »

It appears that most of the sales in January in Dublin are for very low amounts. Lots of small apartments etc.

What do people think of this?

Perhaps it's a sign of the big cash buyers drying up and the lump sum pension joe soaps getting in on the action..

Now firstly I note you left out the rest of my post - now why would that be? Is it because I was pointing out that the sample of data is so small you can't draw inferences from it?

- The 96 properties sold in Jan 2014 to date represent 0.965% of last years sales, a figure which will fall as more 2013 sales are added. Do you think this represents an adequate sample size?

- How can you make inferences about the market based on this? If it was full of high value properties would you not ask for a sample size of 5% or 10%? Or is showed that average or median prices were up 20% would it be indicate of the dublin market as a whole? (and it does show the average is up - see below - no doubt skewed by the €4.5m sale due to the low sample size)

Now let's look at the figures anyway (even though as I've pointed out they are extremely limited given the sample size).

- Now the average of the 96 properties sold is €291,166 - much higher than the average €239k average dublin property price at the end of Dec (21.83% higher). Does this mean prices are up nearly 22% in Jan on Dec? No of course not.

- Of the 96 sales, 35 are above the €239k dublin average. Of those 35 - 21 are above €300k and of those 21, 14 are above €400k

- Now lets look at the cheap properties - there are only 28 properties below €150k (I'm not sure what you define as cheap) and of these 11 are only below €100k. So there are more properties over €400k than under €100k.

Anyway as I say it's all pointless as it's such a small sample size.

And on what your inference that 'Perhaps it's a sign of the big cash buyers drying up and the lump sum pension joe soaps getting in on the action'.

How did you draw this inference?

- How do you know which properties were cash and which mortgage?
- Of the cash transactions how did you come up with that they are lump sums? and ordinary joe's? You do know yields are usually higher on smaller 1/2 bed apartments?

I'm going to guess they were just throw away comments.

Buying 2014

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