Buying 2014

moxin · 28-01-2014 10:53am

kennyb3 wrote: »

- Now the average of the 96 properties sold is €291,166 - much higher than the average €239k average dublin property price at the end of Dec (21.83% higher). Does this mean prices are up nearly 22% in Jan on Dec? No of course not.

Just noticed, there were 132 apts sold at Phoenix Park for 8k on Dec 20th 2013. Unless its a typo by the PPR, something fishy is going on. It skews the averages badly. https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date?SearchView&Start=1&SearchMax=0&SearchOrder=4&Query=%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3E=01/12/2013%20AND%20%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3C01/01/2014%20AND%20%5Baddress%5D=*phoenix*%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=%22Dublin%22&County=Dublin&Year=2013&StartMonth=12&EndMonth=12&Address=phoenix

kennyb3 · 28-01-2014 11:07am

moxin wrote: »

Just noticed, there were 132 apts sold at Phoenix Park for 8k on Dec 20th 2013. Unless its a typo by the PPR, something fishy is going on. It skews the averages badly. https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date?SearchView&Start=1&SearchMax=0&SearchOrder=4&Query=%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3E=01/12/2013%20AND%20%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3C01/01/2014%20AND%20%5Baddress%5D=*phoenix*%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=%22Dublin%22&County=Dublin&Year=2013&StartMonth=12&EndMonth=12&Address=phoenix

There are numerous skews - there are some upwards such as the clancy quay & barracks (€60m+ * 2 transactions - see my post here on this before). There are also bulk transactions in 2012 which are accounted for as individual transactions (see the gas works on 1/06/12). Big inconsistencies and imperfect. Problem is must people are unaware, don't care, too lazy to look.

Which is why you have to look at the underlying data properly - which is kind of what I was trying to show. anyway I think the overall point of my post above still stands.

Note: I didn't take the average from the PPR for this reason.

caew · 28-01-2014 1:16pm

moxin wrote: »

Just noticed, there were 132 apts sold at Phoenix Park for 8k on Dec 20th 2013. Unless its a typo by the PPR, something fishy is going on. It skews the averages badly. https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date?SearchView&Start=1&SearchMax=0&SearchOrder=4&Query=%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3E=01/12/2013%20AND%20%5Bdt_execution_date%5D%3C01/01/2014%20AND%20%5Baddress%5D=*phoenix*%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=%22Dublin%22&County=Dublin&Year=2013&StartMonth=12&EndMonth=12&Address=phoenix

I saw similar on the PPR in tyrrelstown a couple of years ago where a load of houses sold on the same day for exactly the same price, regardless of if they were 2, 3 or 4 bed. I was thinking it was maybe something the builder was doing? Although I could never figure why.

on_my_oe · 28-01-2014 5:54pm

caew wrote: »

I saw similar on the PPR in tyrrelstown a couple of years ago where a load of houses sold on the same day for exactly the same price, regardless of if they were 2, 3 or 4 bed. I was thinking it was maybe something the builder was doing? Although I could never figure why.

I'm taking a stab in the dark here, but possibly a developer transferring assets? I noticed the Phoenix Park tales too

sonandheir · 06-02-2014 9:32pm

I am closing on a house sale and was wondering about the timing of deal and mortgage repayment. I've signed my contracts and they've gone to vendor for sign off. If the closing date is set to 27th Feb will I have to make a mortgage payment in Feb? Would it be better to push it to the 1st March?

lima · 06-02-2014 11:29pm

kennyb3 wrote: »

Okay lets look at what you said;

Now firstly I note you left out the rest of my post - now why would that be? Is it because I was pointing out that the sample of data is so small you can't draw inferences from it?

- The 96 properties sold in Jan 2014 to date represent 0.965% of last years sales, a figure which will fall as more 2013 sales are added. Do you think this represents an adequate sample size?

- How can you make inferences about the market based on this? If it was full of high value properties would you not ask for a sample size of 5% or 10%? Or is showed that average or median prices were up 20% would it be indicate of the dublin market as a whole? (and it does show the average is up - see below - no doubt skewed by the €4.5m sale due to the low sample size)

Now let's look at the figures anyway (even though as I've pointed out they are extremely limited given the sample size).

- Now the average of the 96 properties sold is €291,166 - much higher than the average €239k average dublin property price at the end of Dec (21.83% higher). Does this mean prices are up nearly 22% in Jan on Dec? No of course not.

- Of the 96 sales, 35 are above the €239k dublin average. Of those 35 - 21 are above €300k and of those 21, 14 are above €400k

- Now lets look at the cheap properties - there are only 28 properties below €150k (I'm not sure what you define as cheap) and of these 11 are only below €100k. So there are more properties over €400k than under €100k.

Anyway as I say it's all pointless as it's such a small sample size.

And on what your inference that 'Perhaps it's a sign of the big cash buyers drying up and the lump sum pension joe soaps getting in on the action'.

How did you draw this inference?

- How do you know which properties were cash and which mortgage?
- Of the cash transactions how did you come up with that they are lump sums? and ordinary joe's? You do know yields are usually higher on smaller 1/2 bed apartments?

I'm going to guess they were just throw away comments.

You're being very defensive

I was talking about January. At the time there were not many properties on the register and most of them were for low values. That's all :rolleyes:

wench · 07-02-2014 12:29am

sonandheir wrote: »

I am closing on a house sale and was wondering about the timing of deal and mortgage repayment. I've signed my contracts and they've gone to vendor for sign off. If the closing date is set to 27th Feb will I have to make a mortgage payment in Feb? Would it be better to push it to the 1st March?

Your first mortgage payment would be due approx one month after you draw down.
It depends on the bank whether they have certain fixed dates for mortgage payments (eg 7th, 14th, etc), or if they take it on the draw-down date each month.

jon1981 · 07-02-2014 9:55am

sonandheir wrote: »

I am closing on a house sale and was wondering about the timing of deal and mortgage repayment. I've signed my contracts and they've gone to vendor for sign off. If the closing date is set to 27th Feb will I have to make a mortgage payment in Feb? Would it be better to push it to the 1st March?

If it's with AIB it's always the 7th of the month. So if you move in on the 27th of Feb, the first payment will be the 7th of March, after the 7th of March and it will then be the 7th of April.

HouseHunter13 · 19-02-2014 4:05pm

Just wondering how things are going for 2014 buyers?

thread seems quiet so far...

Idbatterim · 19-02-2014 5:01pm

this can be spun whatever way you want, by all means wait for the right property and dont rush, but anyone who thinks that prices will drop again or that they will be better off waiting a year or two, is going to be disappointed IMO. (im referring to most parts of Dublin with this comment) If people forecast a drop in prices here, Id like to know what % they are thinking!

The Spider · 19-02-2014 5:23pm

They're not going to drop, I think it's been reluctantly accepted by a lot of the bears around here, they missed the boat for at least the next five years (in Dublin anyway) and possibly beyond, there's no supply, no builders and no land in the areas they want to buy in.

As the long running repossessions thread showed, the very last hope was that a massive wave of repos would cause some kind of massive price drop in desirable areas in Dublin, crazy stuff really.

Long and the short of it, the bottom was 2011/2012 and will definitely seem like it as we advance into this year it'll seem more and more obvious.

Cin1586 · 19-02-2014 5:28pm

We where planning to buy in 2014 and have just gotten mortgage approval at a level we are comfortable with. We have been keeping an eye on the market over the last year or so and where looking for a 3 bed in Dublin. Not particularly fussy about the area so a wide search and open to doing some work. However in the last couple of weeks after losing out on a house in a bidding war (the house is still being bid on currently 40K over the asking price and a whopping 170K over the last house sold on that road back in Aug 2013) we are now reevaluating our thoughts and have decided to hold off perhaps for a year. Worrying thing has been the recent increase in asking prices and the panic feeling to get on the property market now or else. We just can't justify borrowing more money which we could do to overpay for something that has the potential to be a loose around our neck if the market crashes.

From speaking with friends in a similar position this is the feedback I am hearing that people considering buying are now feeling either panic or retreating for fear we end up in a position that others found themselves in after the boom.

I still find it hard to contemplate that banks will lend to first time buyers at prices 50% higher then houses sold on the same street last year but if that happens I don't want to be a part of that risk! Rents might be high currently but the fear of overpaying and ending up in a bad position is worse then the high rents for us!

Idbatterim · 19-02-2014 5:30pm

They're not going to drop, I think it's been reluctantly accepted by a lot of the bears around here, they missed the boat for at least the next five years (in Dublin anyway) and possibly beyond, there's no supply, no builders and no land in the areas they want to buy in.

As the long running repossessions thread showed, the very last hope was that a massive wave of repos would cause some kind of massive price drop in desirable areas in Dublin, crazy stuff really.

Long and the short of it, the bottom was 2011/2012 and will definitely seem like it as we advance into this year it'll seem more and more obvious.

Yeah I absolutely agree, and this is coming from a renter, who is saving, but given I would be looking at 300k houses around Dundrum / Windyarbour and say these rise 10% a year on average for the next few years, 3k of my savings every year is up in smoke...

I still find it hard to contemplate that banks will lend to first time buyers at prices 50% higher then houses sold on the same street last year but if that happens I don't want to be a part of that risk! Rents might be high currently but the fear of overpaying and ending up in a bad position is worse then the high rents for us!

yeah, thing is if the prices keep rising are you simply going to capitulate in 2 /3 years, requiring higher deposit, and 2 or 3 years spent on rent that could have went to paying off your mortgage?... In some ways new builds are the easiest if they are in an area you are happy with, the pricing is usually set and thats it, far less messing...

macnug · 19-02-2014 7:00pm

Trying to buy since 2013. Sale agreed since July. Hoping to get in finished within the next month. Anybody else taking this long? Its a property in receivership.

strandroad · 19-02-2014 7:04pm

We bought earlier this month and are very happy with the purchase. It was good time for us and the price was right. Buying just before Xmas worked in our favour as there was very little competition, we were lucky in this aspect. Looking and viewing for most of 2013 though.

Idbatterim · 19-02-2014 7:07pm

Trying to buy since 2013. Sale agreed since July. Hoping to get in finished within the next month. Anybody else taking this long? Its a property in receivership.

At least you are locked into the July 2013 price...

handlemaster · 19-02-2014 7:11pm

Idbatterim wrote: »

At least you are locked into the July 2013 price...

Unless contracts are signed the seller can pull out

macnug · 19-02-2014 7:11pm

Idbatterim wrote: »

At least you are locked into the July 2013 price...

Haha true. Not Dublin though so prices haven't gone up that much. Just wish it would end now at this stage.

macnug · 19-02-2014 7:14pm

handlemaster wrote: »

Unless contracts are signed the seller can pull out

Well its in receivership with NAMA so id doubt they would pull out but ye never know with this crowd.

handlemaster · 19-02-2014 7:28pm

Idbatterim wrote: »

At least you are locked into the July 2013 price...

Unless contracts are signed the seller can pull out

Marchbride · 19-02-2014 7:39pm

Well im getting completely fed up and losing interest with it. Was viewing a house today and could not get over the crowd at it. No joke, there must have been at least 100-120 people at it. The area was absolute bedlam, big queues to get in and out of rooms, up and down stairs.. Mental. Worse thing is.. It's priced ok from what I seen on the pictures of the house but now I've seen the house, it's a money pit.. You'd need to put at least 60k in it to make it comfortably liveable. But that show up today just made me realise how many people are actually looking to buy. Now I know not all viewing would be in a position to buy and some are tyre kickers!!

handlemaster · 19-02-2014 7:48pm

Marchbride wrote: »

Well im getting completely fed up and losing interest with it. Was viewing a house today and could not get over the crowd at it. No joke, there must have been at least 100-120 people at it. The area was absolute bedlam, big queues to get in and out of rooms, up and down stairs.. Mental. Worse thing is.. It's priced ok from what I seen on the pictures of theo house but now I've seen the house, it's a money pit.. You'd need to put at least 60k in it to make it comfortably liveable. But that show up today just made me realise how many people are actually looking to buy. Now I know not all viewing would be in a position to buy and some are tyre kickers!!

What area were you in ? It seems like a lot of people?

Marchbride · 19-02-2014 8:32pm

handlemaster wrote: »

What area were you in ? It seems like a lot of people?

http://m.myhome.ie/for-sale/brochure/2736348
This is the venue for the masses that decended on glasnevin/finglas

lima · 19-02-2014 8:48pm

Marchbride wrote: »

Well im getting completely fed up and losing interest with it. Was viewing a house today and could not get over the crowd at it. No joke, there must have been at least 100-120 people at it. The area was absolute bedlam, big queues to get in and out of rooms, up and down stairs.. Mental. Worse thing is.. It's priced ok from what I seen on the pictures of the house but now I've seen the house, it's a money pit.. You'd need to put at least 60k in it to make it comfortably liveable. But that show up today just made me realise how many people are actually looking to buy. Now I know not all viewing would be in a position to buy and some are tyre kickers!!

Yeah it's pretty sick when all these young first time buyers are looking for homes yet all these cash-rich old people are buying up all the property. Sick country.

lima · 19-02-2014 8:55pm

HouseHunter13 wrote: »

Just wondering how things are going for 2014 buyers?

thread seems quiet so far...

I have all but given up. I had 250k approval in 2012 but no suitable houses. Got approval for 250 + 100k deposit now but feel there is no value, and no stock (pat on the back vested interests - you won!). Luckily I'm not tied to this country as other half from a rich country where the currency has weakened by 25% so basically we will probably keep renting here and eventually buy over there. This country is so messed up I would not bring children into it anyway but was hoping to get something that I could keep and rent, but I'm not going to risk committing to Ireland in case I am forced to have to live here forever.

moxin · 19-02-2014 9:40pm

Marchbride wrote: »

http://m.myhome.ie/for-sale/brochure/2736348
This is the venue for the masses that decended on glasnevin/finglas

Queues for that? That house is only suitable for builders in order to flip it for a profit in the future, doubt any FTB would have the patience or money to make that liveable.

cookiecakes · 19-02-2014 9:50pm

Marchbride wrote: »

Well im getting completely fed up and losing interest with it. Was viewing a house today and could not get over the crowd at it. No joke, there must have been at least 100-120 people at it. The area was absolute bedlam, big queues to get in and out of rooms, up and down stairs.. Mental. Worse thing is.. It's priced ok from what I seen on the pictures of the house but now I've seen the house, it's a money pit.. You'd need to put at least 60k in it to make it comfortably liveable. But that show up today just made me realise how many people are actually looking to buy. Now I know not all viewing would be in a position to buy and some are tyre kickers!!

Bloody hell that's shocking..We just got our keys for our house in Glasnevin almost 2 weeks ago and seem to have gotten in at just the right time. We went sale agreed in November and think I would have had a heartache if I'd seen 100 people! We went to one that had about 10 couples and I was freaking out! Good luck with the search!

Idbatterim · 19-02-2014 10:03pm

Got approval for 250 + 100k deposit now but feel there is no value, and no stock (pat on the back vested interests - you won!).

Thing is, will we be looking back in a year or two and say should have bought then (i.e) now, when there was still some value? Its all relative. Value now compared to one / two years ago is poor, wouldnt surprise me if its now good value compared to another year or two down the road, even with the recent price hikes and they are hikes in Dublin.

lukesmom · 19-02-2014 10:04pm

macnug wrote: »

Trying to buy since 2013. Sale agreed since July. Hoping to get in finished within the next month. Anybody else taking this long? Its a property in receivership.

Yeah sale agreed last June and signed contracts 3 days ago.

Glenbhoy · 19-02-2014 10:11pm

The Spider wrote: »

They're not going to drop, I think it's been reluctantly accepted by a lot of the bears around here, they missed the boat for at least the next five years (in Dublin anyway) and possibly beyond, there's no supply, no builders and no land in the areas they want to buy in.

As the long running repossessions thread showed, the very last hope was that a massive wave of repos would cause some kind of massive price drop in desirable areas in Dublin, crazy stuff really.

Long and the short of it, the bottom was 2011/2012 and will definitely seem like it as we advance into this year it'll seem more and more obvious.

Now when did I hear sentiment like that before??

Oh that's right, it was about the same time that

"you better get on the ladder now"
"renting is dead money"
"property only goes one way"
"they don't make any more of it"

and similar phrases were in vogue.

Guys, say what you like, but the fundamentals for the forseeable future in this country are not positive. Banks agree, that's why, despite what they are advertising, they are currently lending 5% of 2006 levels of cash.

Buying 2014

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