Buying 2014

Ms2011

Sale agreed since November on a repossed house, still waiting on the bank to send out the letter of consent for the sale....feels like it's been dragging on forever!!!!

o1s1n

Usual doom and gloom aside, we're getting the keys to our new home tomorrow

\o/

Went sale agreed half way through December, so only two months ago - but it feels like an eternity! I would have gone mental if I'd to wait as long as some folks have mentioned.

Idbatterim

Now when did I hear sentiment like that before??

Oh that's right, it was about the same time that

"you better get on the ladder now"
"renting is dead money"
"property only goes one way"
"they don't make any more of it"

and similar phrases were in vogue.

Guys, say what you like, but the fundamentals for the forseeable future in this country are not positive. Banks agree, that's why, despite what they are advertising, they are currently lending 5% of 2006 levels of cash.

Right, seeing as Id be better off waiting to buy in your opinion IF I had the cash to do so. How long do you suggest I wait and what % drops do you expect. Because if it was 50% after possibly the biggest global financial crisis to date, Id like to hear what the next expected drop will be...

Anyone who was in a position to buy and chose to wait one or two years ago, is going to pay a major major price, when you factor in the price hikes can be probably doubled when you throw on the interest on a 20 / 25 year mortgage...

The Spider

Glenbhoy wrote: »

Now when did I hear sentiment like that before??

Oh that's right, it was about the same time that

"you better get on the ladder now"
"renting is dead money"
"property only goes one way"
"they don't make any more of it"

and similar phrases were in vogue.

Guys, say what you like, but the fundamentals for the forseeable future in this country are not positive. Banks agree, that's why, despite what they are advertising, they are currently lending 5% of 2006 levels of cash.

Look keep telling yourself that, this is a different situation to the previous boom, which was fuelec by cheap credit and unregulated building.

That all came to an abrupt halt no building took place for nearly 6 years, people held back from buying or selling.

Now there's 6 years worth of demand for property, not much for sale and nowhere to build, so seriously this is supply and demand, high demand and limited supply means rising prices, that simple.

There will be no extra supply, in desirable areas at least or anywhere within the m50, no land left for any housing estates, maybe apartments, but we all know we don't want those....yet.

lima

Idbatterim wrote: »

Thing is, will we be looking back in a year or two and say should have bought then (i.e) now, when there was still some value? Its all relative. Value now compared to one / two years ago is poor, wouldnt surprise me if its now good value compared to another year or two down the road, even with the recent price hikes and they are hikes in Dublin.

That's the problem really, there's that possibility. It really is screwed up. I'd prefer if prices stalled now and never went up again!

lima

Idbatterim wrote: »

Right, seeing as Id be better off waiting to buy in your opinion IF I had the cash to do so. How long do you suggest I wait and what % drops do you expect. Because if it was 50% after possibly the biggest global financial crisis to date, Id like to hear what the next expected drop will be...

Anyone who was in a position to buy and chose to wait one or two years ago, is going to pay a major major price, when you factor in the price hikes can be probably doubled when you throw on the interest on a 20 / 25 year mortgage...

Listen, don't panic, that's whats contributing to the new boom!

The Spider

lima wrote: »

That's the problem really, there's that possibility. It really is screwed up. I'd prefer if prices stalled now and never went up again!

That's always the problem, Oh Prices are falling, I won't buy they'll fall more!
Oh Prices are rising, I won't sell they'll rise more.

One thing you can be sure of the market won't stop and wait for you or anybody elseto decide what they should do.

Because if it did you'd more than likely say "it's not doing anything I'd better not do anything until it does something!

Silverbling

lima wrote: »

Yeah it's pretty sick when all these young first time buyers are looking for homes yet all these cash-rich old people are buying up all the property. Sick country.

Us old people (I am 48 and have a 14 and 8 year old) do not want to pay South Dublin rent until the day we die

The time to buy was 2 years ago, the rents on my road are now €2300 for a semi and huge queues to view.

I missed the boat due to losing my high paid cushy job but the property market in Dundrum has gone completely nuts, I think people who waited with cash in the bank are now realising they should have bought and want to buy before prices go any higher

lima

Silverbling wrote: »

Us old people (I am 48 and have a 14 and 8 year old) do not want to pay South Dublin rent until the day we die

The time to buy was 2 years ago, the rents on my road are now €2300 for a semi and huge queues to view.

I missed the boat due to losing my high paid cushy job but the property market in Dundrum has gone completely nuts, I think people who waited with cash in the bank are now realising they should have bought and want to buy before prices go any higher

I'm really referring to older people who already have a house (or houses)who have recently retired and have a lump sum.

There is a time to buy but what happens when all there is to buy is bad quality? I've had approval since 2012 but I'd rather wait (or not buy at all which is my latest plan) than live in some kip of a house.

macnug

lukesmom wrote: »

Yeah sale agreed last June and signed contracts 3 days ago.

Just out of curiosity, how often did you contact your solicitors to move things along? I'm contacting them twice a week, feel like it's a bit too much but nothing seems to happen when I don't. Another question to anybody who has bought off nama, do they only sign off on properties at the end of the quarter or something?

macnug

Glenbhoy wrote: »

Now when did I hear sentiment like that before??

Oh that's right, it was about the same time that

"you better get on the ladder now"
"renting is dead money"
"property only goes one way"
"they don't make any more of it"

and similar phrases were in vogue.

Guys, say what you like, but the fundamentals for the forseeable future in this country are not positive. Banks agree, that's why, despite what they are advertising, they are currently lending 5% of 2006 levels of cash.

I agree, I think whats happening in Dublin is just an anomaly that will correct itself. interest rates have to rise eventually, unemployment is still very high, GDP to debt ratios at dizzying heights, and repos will have to be sorted at some stage. On paper what's happening in Dublin shouldn't be happening, so why is it? Vested interest interference imo.

gmisk

Ms2011 wrote: »

Sale agreed since November on a repossed house, still waiting on the bank to send out the letter of consent for the sale....feels like it's been dragging on forever!!!!

That isnt long.....just read some of the other threads here...

lukesmom

macnug wrote: »

Just out of curiosity, how often did you contact your solicitors to move things along? I'm contacting them twice a week, feel like it's a bit too much but nothing seems to happen when I don't. Another question to anybody who has bought off nama, do they only sign off on properties at the end of the quarter or something?

To be honest I was emailing my solicitor every other day. She has multiple cases to deal with so I really made an effort to keep in touch at least 3 times a week.

Glenbhoy

Idbatterim wrote: »

Right, seeing as Id be better off waiting to buy in your opinion IF I had the cash to do so. How long do you suggest I wait and what % drops do you expect. Because if it was 50% after possibly the biggest global financial crisis to date, Id like to hear what the next expected drop will be...

Anyone who was in a position to buy and chose to wait one or two years ago, is going to pay a major major price, when you factor in the price hikes can be probably doubled when you throw on the interest on a 20 / 25 year mortgage...

One question, if prices continue to rise, who can afford to buy and where will the finance come from?

Banks are making noises about lending, but really, they're not in a position to lend more than they currently are. Are we to see a continuance of the cash buying phenomenon? How long will/can that continue?

You should also bear in mind that the economic situation, worldwide and in the eurozone is not over, true, the sticking plasters have stemmed the bloodflow, but it may not take much for the haemorrhage to start again.

Glenbhoy

The Spider wrote: »

Now there's 6 years worth of demand for property, not much for sale and nowhere to build, so seriously this is supply and demand, high demand and limited supply means rising prices, that simple.

There will be no extra supply, in desirable areas at least or anywhere within the m50, no land left for any housing estates, maybe apartments, but we all know we don't want those....yet.

I'm not sure that demand is excessive, true supply is extremely constricted, but with the absence of finance at present, realisable demand is not at levels seen in the past, the transaction numbers bear that up.

Supply is artificially constrained at present, probably in the main due to interest rate levels and the large amounts of tracker mortgages, the presence of those same tracker mortgages is also one of the reasons why banks cannot provide the finance they would love to.

McGrath5

o1s1n wrote: »

Usual doom and gloom aside, we're getting the keys to our new home tomorrow

\o/

Went sale agreed half way through December, so only two months ago - but it feels like an eternity! I would have gone mental if I'd to wait as long as some folks have mentioned.

I have been sale agreed since the end of November, close date is around the end of March, I am literally counting down the hours till it.

Best of luck with the new place.

Ms2011

gmisk wrote: »

That isnt long.....just read some of the other threads here...

It is when you're at the waiting end

gmisk

Ms2011 wrote: »

It is when you're at the waiting end

Er try sale agreed for a year....

Ms2011

gmisk wrote: »

Er try sale agreed for a year....

What's the hold up?

gmisk

Negative equity on vendors side, no agreement with bank to sell it before they put it up for sale.....very helpful!

Idbatterim

Ok, say for example, **** hits the fan again in 6 six years, (a flash in the scheme of things) people if prices do continue to rise say 10% per year for the next few years, if they dont buy now, does anyone honestly think that they would miss a second bite of the apple and be nowhere near as afraid to jump in next time, before the bottom has been reached, which only hindsight can tell? I cant see it panning out again the same way, unless it is god knows how far down the road and everything has been forgotten...

One question, if prices continue to rise, who can afford to buy and where will the finance come from?

Banks are making noises about lending, but really, they're not in a position to lend more than they currently are. Are we to see a continuance of the cash buying phenomenon? How long will/can that continue?

You should also bear in mind that the economic situation, worldwide and in the eurozone is not over, true, the sticking plasters have stemmed the bloodflow, but it may not take much for the haemorrhage to start again.

There are still a huge amount of people on good to very good money, also those that inherit or receive big lump sums on retirement and look to invest it into property. I agree the situation isnt over, but I think we are pretty much in the clear, its obvious the bears have lost out by waiting and I think they are going to continue to do so for at least another several years. Some people will now continue renting or 1) make a compromise on house type / location or both 2) simply pay whatever it takes to secure it ( a lot of people will do this) As the other poster pointed out, our opinions or what view we have on the market as a whole is an absolute irrelevance to the market itself, its going to go on, on its own course regardless...

The below quote came from Neville Isdell former CEO of Coca Cola on whos buying Ireland a few months ago and it hits the nail firmly on the head, I have posted it on another thread...

from the documentary "whos buying ireland" on rte earlier. neville isdell, former chairman and ceo of coca cola "the early adapters, the one's in the minority, have made a big mistake or they do very very well and in my view, its the minority who are normally right, because when the majority believe something, its already happened. he ended up buying the chq in the docklands.

gaius c

Was he really in that much of a minority?
Media have been calling "the recovery" every year since the credit crunch and just like McWilliams, they eventually got it right.
The "buy buy buy" banshees never ever went away.

As for Neville, I saw that program and I'm sure he's a smarter guy than shown there because his business reasons for buying CHQ boiled down to "well it's cheaper than it was 4 years ago so therefore it's good value".
The place is still a ghost town and Dublin remains awash with vacant retail units.

lima

Idbatterim wrote: »

Ok, say for example, **** hits the fan again in 6 six years, (a flash in the scheme of things) people if prices do continue to rise say 10% per year for the next few years, if they dont buy now, does anyone honestly think that they would miss a second bite of the apple and be nowhere near as afraid to jump in next time, before the bottom has been reached, which only hindsight can tell? I cant see it panning out again the same way, unless it is god knows how far down the road and everything has been forgotten...

There are still a huge amount of people on good to very good money, also those that inherit or receive big lump sums on retirement and look to invest it into property. I agree the situation isnt over, but I think we are pretty much in the clear, its obvious the bears have lost out by waiting and I think they are going to continue to do so for at least another several years. Some people will now continue renting or 1) make a compromise on house type / location or both 2) simply pay whatever it takes to secure it ( a lot of people will do this) As the other poster pointed out, our opinions or what view we have on the market as a whole is an absolute irrelevance to the market itself, its going to go on, on its own course regardless...

The below quote came from Neville Isdell former CEO of Coca Cola on whos buying Ireland a few months ago and it hits the nail firmly on the head, I have posted it on another thread...

People need to realize it's not the end of the world if they can't buy anything, whether its through refusing to lower themselves to the low standards in Ireland, or if they cant buy in their area.

What if your rent is similar to what you would pay in interest? You can just save up the 'capital' part and invest it in something other than property (like BitCoins... joke)

In my example, I could buy now, but in the suburbs. However renting in an affluent street in D6 that's walking distance to the center offers me a better quality of life. Therefore I'm pretty happy even though nothing suitable for me has become available and I'm content with 'missing the boat' if missing the boat means not living in a house im not happy with in an area im not happy with.

Villa05

Just watching last nights debate on primetime regarding pay rises/tax cuts. An interesting stat from the show

40% of the workforce do not earn enough to fall into the tax net, therefor tax cuts would be of no benefit to these people
we continue to add 1 billion per month to the national debt to pay for basic services. Michael Nonan declared 12 months ago that our national debt was unsustainable.

Are increasing house pries and rents sustainable in such an environment?

The Spider

Villa05 wrote: »

Just watching last nights debate on primetime regarding pay rises/tax cuts. An interesting stat from the show

40% of the workforce do not earn enough to fall into the tax net, therefor tax cuts would be of no benefit to these people
we continue to add 1 billion per month to the national debt to pay for basic services. Michael Nonan declared 12 months ago that our national debt was unsustainable.

Are increasing house pries and rents sustainable in such an environment?

Increasing house prices are Dublin centric, at the moment, I honestly think there needs to be a concerted effort to develop business outside Dublin, as long as multinationals, tech companies, etc all see Dublin as default, prices will continue to rise as only one location in the country is getting the jobs.

In the Uk there's plenty of new business (media, tech dev the arts etc) outside
London, wages are lower however so is the cost of living, we need to get to that model.

We had it before with manufacturing, Waterford was a major centre when Waterford crystal operated, as well as other factories Bausch and Lomb etc. Now it's verging on a ghost town.

If these towns could take on manufacturing from some of the worlds bigger countries, I think we should be looking at ways to make them attractive to tech companies and such. How do we make them attractive to the guys who'll work in these companies, and how do we change the factory mindset of some of the towns, in other words people just wanting a job, any job, and not having a direction or interest.

lukesmom

lima wrote: »

People need to realize it's not the end of the world if they can't buy anything, whether its through refusing to lower themselves to the low standards in Ireland, or if they cant buy in their area.

What if your rent is similar to what you would pay in interest? You can just save up the 'capital' part and invest it in something other than property (like BitCoins... joke)

In my example, I could buy now, but in the suburbs. However renting in an affluent street in D6 that's walking distance to the center offers me a better quality of life. Therefore I'm pretty happy even though nothing suitable for me has become available and I'm content with 'missing the boat' if missing the boat means not living in a house im not happy with in an area im not happy with.

Because some people want a home of their own, to feel settled and content. Not to be paying someone else's mortgage in a house they don't call home.

lima

lukesmom wrote: »

Because some people want a home of their own, to feel settled and content. Not to be paying someone else's mortgage in a house they don't call home.

But really it's not your home until you pay off the bank and receive the Deeds.

You are renting a house on hire purchase.

You don't own it, you are always going to be paying someone else!

You could easily rent and save and at the end buy a house with cash

lukesmom

lima wrote: »

But really it's not your home until you pay off the bank and receive the Deeds.

You are renting a house on hire purchase.

You don't own it, you are always going to be paying someone else!

You could easily rent and save and at the end buy a house with cash

You can argue the point until the cows come home but the simple fact is:

-When you buy It is your home and you are paying for it.
- When you rent it's not your home and your paying for it.

Bepolite

lima wrote: »

But really it's not your home until you pay off the bank and receive the Deeds.

You are renting a house on hire purchase.

You don't own it, you are always going to be paying someone else!

You could easily rent and save and at the end buy a house with cash

My mortgage is €550 a month, rent on the same apartment would be €950 a month. I'm not sure how effective it is to save when it's €4800 a year more expensive to rent.

MouseTail

Bepolite wrote: »

My mortgage is €550 a month, rent on the same apartment would be €950 a month. I'm not sure how effective it is to save when it's €4800 a year more expensive to rent.

And the gap widens much more significantly as time goes on due to inflation.