WC 2014 Brasil; Starts June 12th 2014

inforfun

****.

Going out against that **** team hurts.

Never thought i would say this being Dutch but i hope the Germans give the Argentinians a Brazilian.

And oh... let Brazil stick that 3rd place in their hole and just go home now Holland.

Shanotheslayer

Threw €5 on Argie ET and Argie Penos. Profit €5 but sure a profits a profit. Nothing major. My BTTS was a lose and also my goal after 70:00. But in profit of the game due to the penos

seanhynes

cillesen should not be holland number 1 he should have saved two of them penalties,too small and that record he has for saving pens is brutal,big mistake from van gaal

Lamposts

I want to cry.... Lost big on holland to win pks!

greenman09

Had holland @33/1 from the start. To get so far was great watching the price drop to what it was. 5er back as went out on penalties.
Gonna enjoy the final and place nothing.

jantheman91

The Germans are going to bend poor little Messi's men over and rail them so hard.

Looking forward to the Final!

Smithwicks Man

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

College basketball is the best to make money at for me anyway.

Will need to follow the sport for a year before I'd bet on it.

yabadabado

redarmy wrote: »

8/11 now on pp.....sorry thats to win the cup

4/5 still available with a few firms.

skippymac6

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

Will need to follow the sport for a year before I'd bet on it.

The American sports are the best to win money off but I'm an NFL man myself. Think there's money to be made esp at the start of the season when the bookies are still finding their feet dans seeing who's decent

Hamadeusentman

jantheman91 wrote: »

The Germans are going to bend poor little Messi's men over and rail them so hard.

Looking forward to the Final!

Don't think so. German midfield won't handle Messi as well as Dutch. Hopefully Di Maria will be back and they'll look to counter.

user2011

It's still on



Posted this after watching an awesome game between Arg/Brazil (Messi with a hat-trick, 4-3 win) friendly only thought of it last night during the Ger/Bra game.

Disappointingly they've been poor to watch overall.

shrewdness

7/5 for Germany to win in 90 minutes looks a great price, surely it won't last. Argentina are fairly ordinary at the back so as long as Messi can be looked after, Germany should be winning this.

Nuri Sahin

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

No Betfair? :eek:

Have heard from a few people that the NBA is a lot easier to find value in. Don't know enough about it to bet on it though.

Live and breath NBA and NBA betting, best decision I made was more or less giving up football betting barring the odd big game bet. Said it earlier in the thread during the group stage, but I respect the hell out of anyone who is hitting 60% minimum on single bets in football over the course of the season on here.

NHL is also fairly handy too, as is college football. I think I'm just a jinx when it comes to NFL though :pac:

Hulk Hands

Nuri Sahin wrote: »

Live and breath NBA and NBA betting, best decision I made was more or less giving up football betting barring the odd big game bet. Said it earlier in the thread during the group stage, but I respect the hell out of anyone who is hitting 60% minimum on single bets in football over the course of the season on here.

NHL is also fairly handy too, as is college football. I think I'm just a jinx when it comes to NFL though :pac:

How is someone supposed to hit 60% minimum? By backing 4/5 shots or what? The percentage of winning bets has absolutely no relevance to anything whatsoever

Eod100

Put on a silly bet of 20 @ 7/4 on Mueller to be top goalscorer the other day .Have option of cashing out for €12.75. Reckon I'd be better off cashing out then hoping he gets a goal in final to equal Rodriguez?

Smithwicks Man

skippymac6 wrote: »

The American sports are the best to win money off but I'm an NFL man myself. Think there's money to be made esp at the start of the season when the bookies are still finding their feet dans seeing who's decent

Really? Is it just that the games easier to pick or why are they easier to make money on?

Nuri Sahin wrote: »

Live and breath NBA and NBA betting, best decision I made was more or less giving up football betting barring the odd big game bet. Said it earlier in the thread during the group stage, but I respect the hell out of anyone who is hitting 60% minimum on single bets in football over the course of the season on here.

NHL is also fairly handy too, as is college football. I think I'm just a jinx when it comes to NFL though :pac:

I have two friends who know their NBA but I never watch it and would never really bet based solely on somebody else's opinion of what will happen. Will have to watch the sport for a while before I start backing it.

This month has probably seen my best ever return on betting, in terms of the number of winning bets, ROI and total profit. A Germany win on Sunday would just be the cherry on top.

It can be frustrating at times though and it takes an awful lot of time to keep up to date with player form, team form, tactics, how transfers change the team, management styles etc. in one league let alone two and then the CL as well.

By God I love it though

Hulk Hands

Eod100 wrote: »

Put on a silly bet of 20 @ 7/4 on Mueller to be top goalscorer the other day .Have option of cashing out for €12.75. Reckon I'd be better off cashing out then hoping he gets a goal in final to equal Rodriguez?

Bets worth €14.66 at the moment. Keep it

SheldonC17

Should PP not have refunded me on losing scorecasts and correct score bets as it went to penalties?

Mezcita

SheldonC17 wrote: »

Should PP not have refunded me on losing scorecasts and correct score bets as it went to penalties?

Don't think they have processed the refunds yet. Nothing here either.

duckysauce

SheldonC17 wrote: »

Should PP not have refunded me on losing scorecasts and correct score bets as it went to penalties?

**** ripped up a bet for Robben 1st goal earlier and chucked it :eek: jesus **** the brick and motar shops :D

Shanotheslayer

Hulk Hands wrote: »

How is someone supposed to hit 60% minimum? By backing 4/5 shots or what? The percentage of winning bets has absolutely no relevance to anything whatsoever

The Percentage has everything to do with betting. I imagine Nuri means by hitting 60% profit?If not could have a 90% win rate but down due to odds you back.

tomaussie

tomaussie wrote: »

I've backed Chile to come out of their group but at 4/1 to win the group I might back that too. Think they'll have a good World Cup.

Am I a Díck for bumping this ?

tomaussie

tomaussie wrote: »

Winners - Argentina at 5/1.


Mexico to qualify from group A
Chile to qualify from group B
Columbia to win group C
France to win group E

Accum pays about 12/1

Top goalscorer Higuain at 22/1 and Aguero at 16/1.

Both also doubled with Argentina to win at 40/1 each.

As you can see Argentina will make or break the World Cup for me. Weak group so they should score plenty and if they are to go on and win then it will be one of the front 3 that I think will get the Golden boot.

If I could only have one bet I think Higuain is likely to score the most so I'd have him with Argentina at 40/1.

I'm going to have a bet in Group H also. I don't fancy Belgium to perform as most people expect so I'll be doing a straight forecast with Russia and South Korea or reversing it. You can get 20/1 Russia - South Korea or 28/1 South Korea - Russia.

How about now ?

tomaussie

tomaussie wrote: »

I can't go on previous performances. I have to go with what's in front of me.

They have an excellent Keeper and have quality throughout. Very good spine with enough quality up front to do damage.

I think they can beat B&H in the second round thus setting up a quarter final with Germany.

I think France to win their group at 4/5 is fantastic value.

Argentina at 5/1 have to be the value to win it. I'm having a decent bet on them.

OK. I am.

inforfun

Just took Brazil to win @2.3 against Holland.

Not sure what Brazil will do but i cant see RvP, Robben, Sneijder, Vlaar, De Jong and maybe 1 or 2 more playing on Saturday.

Holland really doesnt want to go out and play that match while Brazil will have to be serious for this one seeing as they have something to make up for.

Actually hope van Gaal will leave all 5 Feyenoord players out (De Vrij, BMI, Clasie, Janmaat, Kongolo) since feyenoord will play CL qualifiers soon and want to use these guys, if they are still at the club.

In 98 Holland had to play this 3rd/4th play off as well and really couldnt be arsed against Croatia

Loafing Oaf

:eek:

inforfun wrote: »

Just took Brazil to win @2.3 against Holland.

Not sure what Brazil will do but i cant see RvP, Robben, Sneijder, Vlaar, De Jong and maybe 1 or 2 more playing on Saturday.

Holland really doesnt want to go out and play that match while Brazil will have to be serious for this one seeing as they have something to make up for.

Actually hope van Gaal will leave all 5 Feyenoord players out (De Vrij, BMI, Clasie, Janmaat, Kongolo) since feyenoord will play CL qualifiers soon and want to use these guys, if they are still at the club.

In 98 Holland had to play this 3rd/4th play off as well and really couldnt be arsed against Croatia

Yes I think Holland will be playing the reserves. Too many imponderables for me to risk a bet though.

inforfun

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

:eek:

Yes I think Holland will be playing the reserves. Too many imponderables for me to risk a bet though.

Wouldnt have done if it was any other team than the home team playing Holland.

After that 7-1 they can not go out and not be bothered.

shmeee

SheldonC17 wrote: »

Should PP not have refunded me on losing scorecasts and correct score bets as it went to penalties?

Bet365 refunded all the selected markets again, goal scorers, ht/ft, scorecasts and correct score.

Hulk Hands

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

The Percentage has everything to do with betting. I imagine Nuri means by hitting 60% profit?If not could have a 90% win rate but down due to odds you back.

But the percentage of profit is silly also. I assume you mean return on investment? Nobody in the history of gambling has ever made 60% over a decent sample of bets. Patrick Veitch who is probably the most successful pro to come from the British Isles claims to have made 16%, but even that is over a fairly low sample with him planning and plotting individual bets on horses months in advance. The day of making say 5% ROI on large stakes year in year out is largely gone anyway as your accounts would all be restricted fairly lively and you'll be restricted in shops also.

yabadabado

Nuri Sahin wrote: »

Live and breath NBA and NBA betting, best decision I made was more or less giving up football betting barring the odd big game bet. Said it earlier in the thread during the group stage, but I respect the hell out of anyone who is hitting 60% minimum on single bets in football over the course of the season on here.

NHL is also fairly handy too, as is college football. I think I'm just a jinx when it comes to NFL though :pac:

Will need to start an NBA betting thread when the season starts in October.

what markets do you usually follow Nuri ?

Nuri Sahin

Hulk Hands wrote: »

How is someone supposed to hit 60% minimum? By backing 4/5 shots or what? The percentage of winning bets has absolutely no relevance to anything whatsoever

You just merely look at profit is all I take it, and that's fair enough I suppose, but it doesn't mean someone is a good bettor necessarily. Someone might have lost four bets around evens and nailed one 5/1 or more bet to land in profit. Good on them, but meh in terms of following.. for me anyway. I don't tail anyone but if I did, I'd want someone to follow someone with a high strike rate is all. Obviously backing favourites makes that less impressive, but the people here that follow me elsewhere know that is of no interest to me, sure my bets over the years in this forum show that.

There are a few lads here who going back to my first days regularly posting here, to my time as mod of this place a few years ago I lurk occasionally more than I post or bet, I'll always have an affinity with this place despite posting far less since demodding) to now who bet singles in the main and are damn good when it comes to football betting, and I have no doubt they are hitting 60%. I don't claim to be a good football bettor these days anymore. A few ballsy bets have saved my bacon this World Cup, though even if had I lost that was a fraction of what I had won in the NBA or NHL this past season, even if I'm only a NHL Playoff bettor only (don't have time to watch NHL for the most part outside of that and I like to bet on stuff I'm generally interested in and can watch).

Nuri Sahin

yabadabado wrote: »

Will need to start an NBA betting thread when the season starts in October.

what markets do you usually follow Nuri ?

NBA bets will be Twitter only, yab. Gave reasons why I don't post NBA bets here a week or two ago when asked.

Markets depends on where I can find value. In the main I cap spread/handicaps, be it full game, quarter or halves. I do bet on totals (points) and player props too as well a fair bit too, but totals weren't particularly great to me this past season out of all the usual NBA markets, namely during the Playoffs. I regularly bet in play as well.

Nuri Sahin

Hulk Hands wrote: »

But the percentage of profit is silly also. I assume you mean return on investment? Nobody in the history of gambling has ever made 60% over a decent sample of bets. Patrick Veitch who is probably the most successful pro to come from the British Isles claims to have made 16%, but even that is over a fairly low sample with him planning and plotting individual bets on horses months in advance. The day of making say 5% ROI on large stakes year in year out is largely gone anyway as your accounts would all be restricted fairly lively and you'll be restricted in shops also.

I know plenty of people who over the course of a season have hit comfortably 60% in their chosen sport to bet on, not just one season neither. Not really fussed if you don't believe me as this is a World Cup thread, so I'll leave you to it.

yabadabado

Nuri Sahin wrote: »

NBA bets will be Twitter only, yab. Gave reasons why I don't post NBA bets here a week or two ago when asked.

Markets depends on where I can find value. In the main I cap spread/handicaps, be it full game, quarter or halves. I do bet on totals (points) and player props too as well a fair bit too, but totals weren't particularly great to me this past season out of all the usual NBA markets, namely during the Playoffs. I regularly bet in play as well.

No hassle Nuri ,I' sure you have good reason not to post.I do a little bit of NBA betting so wouldn't mind a thread just to bounce ideas off other punters.

Shanotheslayer

yabadabado wrote: »

No hassle Nuri ,I' sure you have good reason not to post.I do a little bit of NBA betting so wouldn't mind a thread just to bounce ideas off other punters.

There is a NBA betting thread in the Basketball forum mate:)

yabadabado

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

There is a NBA betting thread in the Basketball forum mate:)

didn't know that.Cheers.

Hulk Hands

Nuri Sahin wrote: »

I know plenty of people who over the course of a season have hit comfortably 60% in their chosen sport to bet on, not just one season neither. Not really fussed if you don't believe me as this is a World Cup thread, so I'll leave you to it.

Yeah this isnt the place for a discussion on it (horse racing forum usually crops up with these every so often). But hitting 60% on bets below 4/6 (60% in market terms) would mean they were losing and hitting that percentage at an average price above 4/6 would mean they were winning. It's all about price. And yes as you said in the first post I do only look at profit (and profit converted into ROI) because that is all that matters. Winning bets dont. Similar to teh example you gave, a guy backing 100 20/1 shots over the course of the year can win 10 of them (10% strike rate) and be up a shedload. Like I seen you were backing the 0-0's a bit on the thread at 7s or 8s etc. Nobody could crab you if say 3/12 of those won giving you a poor strike rate but an excellent profit on them.

SantryRed

I'm on Muller top goalscorer at 33/1 with 5 euro each way on it.

If Messi/Robben/RVP doesn't catch up, am I right in saying if:

Muller doesn't score: €46.25 returns
Muller scores 1: €131.25 returns
Muller scores 2: €216.25 returns

Thanks.

auldgranny

SantryRed wrote: »

I'm on Muller top goalscorer at 33/1 with 5 euro each way on it.

If Messi/Robben/RVP doesn't catch up, am I right in saying if:

Muller doesn't score: €46.25 returns
Muller scores 1: €131.25 returns
Muller scores 2: €216.25 returns

Thanks.

Interesting.. ...is he right

mailburner

SantryRed wrote: »

I'm on Muller top goalscorer at 33/1 with 5 euro each way on it.

If Messi/Robben/RVP doesn't catch up, am I right in saying if:

Muller doesn't score: €46.25 returns
Muller scores 1: €131.25 returns
Muller scores 2: €216.25 returns

Thanks.

you are right

auldgranny

mailburner wrote: »

you are right

Wow just wow

mailburner

auldgranny wrote: »

Wow just wow

in the same boat with rodriguez myself at 33/1

auldgranny

SantryRed wrote: »

I'm on Muller top goalscorer at 33/1 with 5 euro each way on it.

If Messi/Robben/RVP doesn't catch up, am I right in saying if:

Muller doesn't score: €46.25 returns
Muller scores 1: €131.25 returns
Muller scores 2: €216.25 returns

Thanks.

5/2 ON BET 365

ok you mean you had this already.
jammy
and by jammy I mean jealous

Bateman

Pro / serious gamblers in the US basically only bet on handicaps and totals. The odds you are taking are usually close to evens. 1.83 is the shortest you would/should generally bet on one of the above.

Considering the above, the win % in US sports is an important yardstick and one they use all the time, rightly or wrongly. I found from using pay services that the 'juice' I was paying (anything short of 2.0 on your selection) made it hard to turn a decent profit. But then the staking plan becomes important, so it can be done.

SantryRed

auldgranny wrote: »

5/2 ON BET 365

ok you mean you had this already.
jammy
and by jammy I mean jealous

Posted it up here at the time.

Got the 33/1 as Muller stepped up to take the penalty against Portugal :pac:

Hulk Hands

Bateman wrote: »

Pro / serious gamblers in the US basically only bet on handicaps and totals. The odds you are taking are usually close to evens. 1.83 is the shortest you would/should generally bet on one of the above.

Considering the above, the win % in US sports is an important yardstick and one they use all the time, rightly or wrongly. I found from using pay services that the 'juice' I was paying (anything short of 2.0 on your selection) made it hard to turn a decent profit. But then the staking plan becomes important, so it can be done.

Why would they not back anything and everything where they can get an advantage, from normal odds to handicaps/totals etc?

I'm not sure pro sportsbetting gamblers really exist in the US bar a few exceptions. There may be people waging loads but they are likely down. The American gambling industry is a joke. You have the Vegas Casino's and sportsbook taking ridiculous amounts of margin and restricting big winners making it nearly impossible to win. They try to stop people counting cards like so you can imagine their attitude to arbers! The online offshore bookies then aswell taking huge margin and restricted anyone who has even a sniff of winning longterm against them. You'll have the odd one like five dimes copying Pinnacles every move on soccer with low margin stuff but again closing the account of whoevers ahead. Many of them have withdrawal requirements also like turning over your money x amount of times before withdrawal etc. Because gamblings illegal in the states I think the ones that can provide it legally provide their own form of tax for the privilage. A stupid industry for a population that doesnt understand it.

To be honest in future I can see NFL/NBA etc being priced up in Asia and Europe first and Vegas just copying them. That process has already begun in Asia with Basketball where it turns over silly money. The US books dont seem to have the skill to price up games until about 5 days before the game when all information is known, and even then theyre just copying whoever goes up first

A Greedy Algorithm

Regarding the game last night, does 9/2 for the game to go to penalties sound like the kind of price you would expect?

Smithwicks Man

A Greedy Algorithm wrote: »

Regarding the game last night, does 9/2 for the game to go to penalties sound like the kind of price you would expect?

Sounds about right yeah. Usually around 5/1

A Greedy Algorithm

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

Sounds about right yeah. Usually around 5/1

Ok thanks!

clickerquicklic

A Greedy Algorithm wrote: »

Ok thanks!

You should try work out how everything is priced helps long term , you say 9/2 for a game to go to penaltys so that means let's say the game is (I'll talk in decimals now it's easier ) 3.4 for a draw 9/2 (5.5 in decimals 9/2 +1) for draw also in extra time would make extra time draw odds 5.5/3.4= 1.61 so that is the price the bookie is giving you on ot been a draw in extra time