WC 2014 Brasil; Starts June 12th 2014

Shanotheslayer

clickerquicklic wrote: »

You should try work out how everything is priced helps long term , you say 9/2 for a game to go to penaltys so that means let's say the game is (I'll talk in decimals now it's easier ) 3.4 for a draw 9/2 (5.5 in decimals 9/2 +1) for draw also in extra time would make extra time draw odds 5.5/3.4= 1.61 so that is the price the bookie is giving you on ot been a draw in extra time

Never knew that myself. Is there a website to run through explanations of stuff like that?

BauBau19

Anyone else lumping Germany?

clickerquicklic

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Never knew that myself. Is there a website to run through explanations of stuff like that?

Not sure on a website its just really working out the individual odds accumulated.

So for example Germany v Argentina
Germany to win on peno's 9/1 is that a good bet ?
My thinking would be what needs to happen to make up this bet.
1) Draw at fulltime
2) Draw in extra time
3) Germany win the shoot out

Assign odds where I can using Betfair or best price on oddschecker for each event where possible. As it happens Betfair has a market for method of victory so i could cheat and use that but for example when there is no market

treat this as a manual accumulator
So 3.3(draw)*1.65(draw in extra time i estmate this at fulltime odds/2 ) * 1.9(i'll make germans slight favourites in penos) = 10.34

My estimate is that its just over a 9/1 shot and Betfair agrees with me , I honestly didn't check Betfair price till after.



There are other related bets also you can try and price , Wincast for example is a bit of a tricky one. Player to score and team to win the game.

Lets take Muller wincast
What I would do here is
Player to score anytime odds * Players team +1 on the handicap (when player scores the team have a 1 goal advantage)

So If i seen a Muller Wincast offered at 3/1 or whatever and wondered was that a good bet.
I would work out Muller anytime to score 3.5 (best price) * 1.33(Germany +1) = 4.65 odds or just over 7/2 , so a 3/1 bet on Muller to score and Germany to win I would not view as value. I can't find odds on oddschecker for books offering this bet (its not a bet i am that interested in , William hill often have headline offers that represent value )

IK09

clickerquicklic wrote: »

Not sure on a website its just really working out the individual odds accumulated.

So for example Germany v Argentina
Germany to win on peno's 9/1 is that a good bet ?
My thinking would be what needs to happen to make up this bet.
1) Draw at fulltime
2) Draw in extra time
3) Germany win the shoot out

Assign odds where I can using Betfair or best price on oddschecker for each event where possible. As it happens Betfair has a market for method of victory so i could cheat and use that but for example when there is no market

treat this as a manual accumulator
So 3.3(draw)*1.65(draw in extra time i estmate this at fulltime odds/2 ) * 1.9(i'll make germans slight favourites in penos) = 10.34

My estimate is that its just over a 9/1 shot and Betfair agrees with me , I honestly didn't check Betfair price till after.



There are other related bets also you can try and price , Wincast for example is a bit of a tricky one. Player to score and team to win the game.

Lets take Muller wincast
What I would do here is
Player to score anytime odds * Players team +1 on the handicap (when player scores the team have a 1 goal advantage)

So If i seen a Muller Wincast offered at 3/1 or whatever and wondered was that a good bet.
I would work out Muller anytime to score 3.5 (best price) * 1.33(Germany +1) = 4.65 odds or just over 7/2 , so a 3/1 bet on Muller to score and Germany to win I would not view as value. I can't find odds on oddschecker for books offering this bet (its not a bet i am that interested in , William hill often have headline offers that represent value )

Very simply and well explained. I tip my hat.

Shanotheslayer

clickerquicklic wrote: »

Not sure on a website its just really working out the individual odds accumulated.

So for example Germany v Argentina
Germany to win on peno's 9/1 is that a good bet ?
My thinking would be what needs to happen to make up this bet.
1) Draw at fulltime
2) Draw in extra time
3) Germany win the shoot out

Assign odds where I can using Betfair or best price on oddschecker for each event where possible. As it happens Betfair has a market for method of victory so i could cheat and use that but for example when there is no market

treat this as a manual accumulator
So 3.3(draw)*1.65(draw in extra time i estmate this at fulltime odds/2 ) * 1.9(i'll make germans slight favourites in penos) = 10.34

My estimate is that its just over a 9/1 shot and Betfair agrees with me , I honestly didn't check Betfair price till after.



There are other related bets also you can try and price , Wincast for example is a bit of a tricky one. Player to score and team to win the game.

Lets take Muller wincast
What I would do here is
Player to score anytime odds * Players team +1 on the handicap (when player scores the team have a 1 goal advantage)

So If i seen a Muller Wincast offered at 3/1 or whatever and wondered was that a good bet.
I would work out Muller anytime to score 3.5 (best price) * 1.33(Germany +1) = 4.65 odds or just over 7/2 , so a 3/1 bet on Muller to score and Germany to win I would not view as value. I can't find odds on oddschecker for books offering this bet (its not a bet i am that interested in , William hill often have headline offers that represent value )

I appreciate the time it took you to write that mate. Helped a lot well explained.

Bateman

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Why would they not back anything and everything where they can get an advantage, from normal odds to handicaps/totals etc?

I suppose they take the view that the “prop markets” are too unpredictable whereas if they stick to sides & totals betting as close as possible to evens, they only have to have a modest enough win % to turn over a profit. There are plenty of “pros” who think under/over in soccer is too unpredictable too, but most of us here get suckered in on it regularly enough I would say.

I agree with the rest of your post, I wouldn’t say the cohort of pro gamblers in the US is particularly large and most are probably based around Vegas, or, logically enough, other states where it’s legal.

byronbay2

In the 9 3rd/4th place playoff matches since 1974, ALL of them have had 3 or more goals - 6 of the 9 have had 4 or more. It is a match where the pressure valve is released and teams can go and play without worrying too much about the result. Brazil will want to raise the country's spirits after Tuesday's humiliation and Netherlands will appreciate playing a team less defensively-minded than Argentina and Costa Rica. I certainly expect goals and will be confidently taking the best-priced 3/5 (BV) about over 2.5 goals. For those of you who don't like the shorties, over 3.5 goals is a general 6/4 shot - also good value imo.

jobeenfitz

byronbay2 wrote: »

In the 9 3rd/4th place playoff matches since 1974, ALL of them have had 3 or more goals - 6 of the 9 have had 4 or more. It is a match where the pressure valve is released and teams can go and play without worrying too much about the result. Brazil will want to raise the country's spirits after Tuesday's humiliation and Netherlands will appreciate playing a team less defensively-minded than Argentina and Costa Rica. I certainly expect goals and will be confidently taking the best-priced 3/5 (BV) about over 2.5 goals. For those of you who don't like the shorties, over 3.5 goals is a general 6/4 shot - also good value imo.

Or the Brazilians could get all eleven and the referee behind the ball and a whole lot of nothing happens.
Normally I would actually go for over 3.5 for this play off game but the poor auld Brazilians could be shaking in their boots and afraid to play. I would not like to invest too much on this one.

Bateman

Exactly, it's a banker overs bet but the price reflects that.

byronbay2

jobeenfitz wrote: »

Or the Brazilians could get all eleven and the referee behind the ball and a whole lot of nothing happens.

What would be the logic in that? More likely, Scolari will use the opportunity to return to Brazilian "core values" of passing and attacking in an effort to placate the masses. I don't mean all-out 1982-style attacking but just play with more confidence and freedom - I think that Brazilian players/people would prefer to lose like that than draw a defensive battle in a meaningless match.

Smithwicks Man

clickerquicklic wrote: »

Lets take Muller wincast
What I would do here is
Player to score anytime odds * Players team +1 on the handicap (when player scores the team have a 1 goal advantage)

So If i seen a Muller Wincast offered at 3/1 or whatever and wondered was that a good bet.
I would work out Muller anytime to score 3.5 (best price) * 1.33(Germany +1) = 4.65 odds or just over 7/2 , so a 3/1 bet on Muller to score and Germany to win I would not view as value. I can't find odds on oddschecker for books offering this bet (its not a bet i am that interested in , William hill often have headline offers that represent value )

It's not down as a wincast because different bookies regard a wincast as different things (some have it anytime scorer and team to win, some first scorer and team to win)

It comes under "Score/Win Double" with a further option of "Score/Either Win Double located further down the page

Smithwicks Man

Very small bet on Over 7.5 goals in the 3rd place play-off game at 33/1 with Betfair.

Not interested in properly backing anything for the game and I'll be in the pub when it's on so this will give me a bit of interest in a nothing game. Hoping they both go for it and there's goals galore.

wolfyboy555

Anyone know if bet365 will be doing their 50€ matched bet offer? They usually do it for the big games eg champions league final

mailburner

wolfyboy555 wrote: »

Anyone know if bet365 will be doing their 50€ matched bet offer? They usually do it for the big games eg champions league final

fraid not
we'd know by now if they were doing it for the final

had hoped myself they might have picked a semi but no

yabadabado

mailburner wrote: »

fraid not
we'd know by now if they were doing it for the final

had hoped myself they might have picked a semi but no

pity,it is a great offer.

wolfyboy555

yabadabado wrote: »

pity,it is a great offer.

yeah was hoping they would do it! might just resist placing a bet and enjoy the game for what it is

yabadabado

This was posted on bargain alerts ,the thread has since been closed because the poster was using a referral code.I am not looking to profit/referrals so I presume its ok to post this here.
Get up to 3/1 on Germany ,need 400 people to join to get 3/1 but the price rises once certain targets are met.
https://paddypower.co-buying.com/


Mods please delete if its breaking any rules.

Smithwicks Man

yabadabado wrote: »

This was posted on bargain alerts ,the thread has since been closed because the poster was using a referral code.I am not looking to profit/referrals so I presume its ok to post this here.
Get up to 3/1 on Germany ,need 400 people to join to get 3/1 but the price rises once certain targets are met.
https://paddypower.co-buying.com/


Mods please delete if its breaking any rules.

Only useful if you don't already have an account as it's only for new customers. Also, the max stake is €20.

If I was setting up a new account with PaddyPower I'd much rather have the free bets, sometimes €250's worth, than 20 quid on Germany at 3/1.



Worth posting though for anyone interested.

yabadabado

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

Only useful if you don't already have an account as it's only for new customers. Also, the max stake is €20.

If I was setting up a new account with PaddyPower I'd much rather have the free bets, sometimes €250's worth, than 20 quid on Germany at 3/1.



Worth posting though for anyone interested.

Didn't realise it was new customers only.

No good to most here so and as you said much better offers when you join than a score at 3's.

Austria!

Anyone got thoughts on the golden ball (Player of the Tournament) betting?

Shanotheslayer

Austria! wrote: »

Anyone got thoughts on the golden ball (Player of the Tournament) betting?

I reckon Muller or Messi. Whoever wins the WC

Vinz Mesrine

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

I reckon Muller or Messi. Whoever wins the WC

I can't see Muller getting it. He hasn't been close to the best German player.

Smithwicks Man

Vinz Mesrine wrote: »

I can't see Muller getting it. He hasn't been close to the best German player.

Jaysus, I wouldn't go that far.

His hat-trick against Portugal and winning goal against USA would beg to differ.

He's more deserving of it than Messi imo.

Shanotheslayer

Vinz Mesrine wrote: »

I can't see Muller getting it. He hasn't been close to the best German player.

Hasn't been close? the only other likely one is Kroos

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

no

had a bet placed on germans to score the 6th bout 35 in
money came out of account but bet not placed according to agent
took 8mins to get through to someone


site is fcuked at the minute
avoid it for the rest of this game everyone

every cloud has a silver lining
gave paddy plenty of abuse for losing out on a winning bet

now, im betting a long time and i'm pretty small stakes but
seeing this in my account shocked me
never even got close to this before
great bookie they are :P

ShamoBuc

Sent them an email complaining as well. Got 20 free bet, put it on Finn Harps to score 1st goal in 72 min, 2/1.........finished 0-0. Ah well !

yabadabado

mailburner wrote: »

every cloud has a silver lining
gave paddy plenty of abuse for losing out on a winning bet

now, im betting a long time and i'm pretty small stakes but
seeing this in my account shocked me
never even got close to this before
great bookie they are :P

I got a €20 free bet today.SB 11/7/14 is the code ,I dunno why I got it but I presume its a similar story as yours when the site was acting up on Tuesday.

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

every cloud has a silver lining
gave paddy plenty of abuse for losing out on a winning bet

now, im betting a long time and i'm pretty small stakes but
seeing this in my account shocked me
never even got close to this before
great bookie they are :P

from that to this
pays for a lot of bets this does
not bad considering my footie bet was only for 8 euro but my
deposits in the past month with pp are nearly double my withdrawals so
they don't want to lose a mug like me


posted elsewhere before race

auldgranny

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

I reckon Muller or Messi. Whoever wins the WC

If messi wins it I am through with football. Will take up knitting.

Austria!

auldgranny wrote: »

If messi wins it I am through with football. Will take up knitting.

He's favourite with the bookies (2.63). And he'd get my vote.

Shanotheslayer

auldgranny wrote: »

If messi wins it I am through with football. Will take up knitting.

1) No you won't :pac: 2) If Argentina win would they have done it without Messi? No probably not. So of course most will vote for him. I'd bank on it if they win

Smithwicks Man

Got a €20 Free Bet from Paddy as well, quite happy as they never give me anything.

Will probably put it on Argentina to lift the cup in a penalty shootout at 9/1 as a bit of insurance on my Germany Outright bet, just in case they hold the Germans until penalties.

Loafing Oaf

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

I reckon Muller or Messi. Whoever wins the WC

If Argies win on the back of a heroic rearguard action maybe Mascherano could come into the reckoning?

i'm thinking about a double on Germany to lift cup, holland to win btts

Shanotheslayer

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

If Argies win on the back of a heroic rearguard action maybe Mascherano could come into the reckoning?

i'm thinking about a double on Germany to lift cup, holland to win btts

Doubt it in regards to Masch. People have to remember how much people love Messi.Etc Etc.No matter how good anyone else did on that team everybody will say "Messi did it, carried them etc" and in terms it's true to a degree. He'd have my vote.

seanhynes

Think he's been relatively quiet since the group stages and he's playing in a stupid position, James Rodriguez has been superior but I know he's hasn't a chance of winning it,it's usually always someone from the winning nation

Loafing Oaf

seanhynes wrote: »

Think he's been relatively quiet since the group stages and he's playing in a stupid position, James Rodriguez has been superior but I know he's hasn't a chance of winning it,it's usually always someone from the winning nation

It actually hasn't gone to a winning team since Romario in 1994 but okay qf is a bit of a stretch

Anyway here's the shortlist, didn't realise there was one: Thomas Muller, Toni Kroos, Philipp Lahm, Mats Hummels (all Germany), Lionel Messi, Javier Mascherano, Angel Di Maria (all Argentina), Neymar (Brazil), Arjen Robben (Holland), James Rodriguez (Colombia).

If Argies win it'll almost certainly be Messi (or likesay just possibly Mascherano if he absolutely kills in the final). If Germany it's pretty open, maybe even Robben if he has a big game tonight.

Backstreet Moyes

Rodriquez has been the best player by a distance he really deserves it.

auldgranny

Nuts102 wrote: »

Rodriquez has been the best player by a distance he really deserves it.

If Robben had played well Wed I could see him being in the reckoning but I agree Ridriguez.

auldgranny

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

1) No you won't :pac: 2) If Argentina win would they have done it without Messi? No probably not. So of course most will vote for him. I'd bank on it if they win

Even if Argentina wins no guarantee he would but he could only because nobody else standing out.

Austria!

Ok, have considered that Messi is overprices, therefore the other candidates Mueller and Rodriguez are underpriced (slightly).

Threw a little over a grand on each, and I think that itself is responsible for the prices shortening on both of them on BetVictor.

If anyone has a Bwin account they can still get Rodriguez at 6, and skybet still have Mueller at 4.33. I think those prices are good.

auldgranny

Austria! wrote: »

Ok, have considered that Messi is overprices, therefore the other candidates Mueller and Rodriguez are underpriced (slightly).

Threw a little over a grand on each, and I think that itself is responsible for the prices shortening on both of them on BetVictor.

If anyone has a Bwin account they can still get Rodriguez at 6, and skybet still have Mueller at 4.33. I think those prices are good.

A grand. :0

Lasagna Diarra

Infor

do you have the probable line up for Holland tonight?
I read that Van Gaal said that this game is meaningless but at the same time he'll probably want to leave on a high (finishing 3rd)...not sure what to think.

eh i dunno

Have backed Argentina from the start but not confident. Would a -1 double on Brazil and Germany be a decent bet at 16/1? Can see both winning

Loafing Oaf

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Infor

do you have the probable line up for Holland tonight?
I read that Van Gaal said that this game is meaningless but at the same time he'll probably want to leave on a high (finishing 3rd)...not sure what to think.

Yeah heard the Sky guy earlier on saying the Dutch were lounging round, doing half-hearted training. But Huntelaar and some of the younger guys might be really motivated. I might go for a high total goals.
Seriously thinking about putting a bit on Mascherano for POTT but the attractiveness of the odds makes me think it can't happen.

inforfun

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Infor

do you have the probable line up for Holland tonight?
I read that Van Gaal said that this game is meaningless but at the same time he'll probably want to leave on a high (finishing 3rd)...not sure what to think.

Comments last few days are that he wants to play players who are "physically fit and fit in the head"

Former internationals have come out that when they lost the 3rd place play off in 98, they still regret that. Kluivert, now at the Dutch team was one of them.

So i expect quite a few changes but they will try to win. They want to go home without having lost a match.


Some stats:
In the 9 previous WC Holland played in, they always lost the last match.
Brazil played 3 times for 3rd place, won all 3 of them.

Scolari is also going to make changes apparently

Shanotheslayer

Over 3 goals in 13/8? Seems a great price.

IncognitoMan

Will Fred start tonight do ye think? I see there is 3/1 available on robben to outscore him tonight

Edit: actually robben is about 2/1 anytime, might be better than hoping one doesn't bounce in off Fred

yabadabado

IncognitoMan wrote: »

Will Fred start tonight do ye think? I see there is 3/1 available on robben to outscore him tonight

Bigger problem could be will Robben start.

IncognitoMan

It's says both must start so I think it's void if one doesn't. I'll just wait for teams

Backstreet Moyes

BTTS and Brazil to win 13/5 their will be goals and Brazil need to bounce back.

Anytime own goal 11/1 because i think their will be a few goals.