WC 2014 Brasil; Starts June 12th 2014

MarkY91

so i did 50 on espana as my big bet. ive set up a boylesports account to avail of the double odds for new customers. 20 euro max bet.

thinking of doing argentina. their attack is frightening and their defence isnt as bad as most are making it out to be. i have a feeling brazil wont do too well in the WC. no idea why

Hulk Hands

Mezcita wrote: »

Easy group and run until the semi finals. Savage squad. Would put them as clear second favourites.

They were available at 11/2 a few months ago. Whats happened since for their price to contract so much? Nothing. Brazil are available at 4s in a few spots. Yet we have Argentina at that price generally having achieved nothing. Spain with a superior squad full of winners are nearly double their price in places. Its common knowledge around the industry that Argentina are underpriced, but why lay the mugs at the true price (around 6/1 according to most respected compilers), when theyre beating the door down for 4s. It happens every big tournament, theres a 'fashionable alternative' that the punters latch onto. Brazil and Spain are too obvious so they go for Argentina. It happened in 2012 with Germany going from 9/2 to 3/1 favs laughably. It happened in 2010 with Argentina also.

Austria!

Hulk Hands wrote: »

They were available at 11/2 a few months ago. Whats happened since for their price to contract so much? Nothing. Brazil are available at 4s in a few spots. Yet we have Argentina at that price generally having achieved nothing. Spain with a superior squad full of winners are nearly double their price in places. Its common knowledge around the industry that Argentina are underpriced, but why lay the mugs at the true price (around 6/1 according to most respected compilers), when theyre beating the door down for 4s. It happens every big tournament, theres a 'fashionable alternative' that the punters latch onto. Brazil and Spain are too obvious so they go for Argentina. It happened in 2012 with Germany going from 9/2 to 3/1 favs laughably. It happened in 2010 with Argentina also.

Suffice it so say I disagree. Leaving aside the issue of how good Argentina are, the idea that Spain at 7/1 is too obvious makes punters opt for Argentina at 4/1 is strange.

KombuchaMshroom

Anyone know what the deal with Higuain is fitness wise?
I really like him for top scorer with all the chances Argentina are likely to create, but he hasn't seemed to feature in any of the warm up matches from what I've seen.

Hulk Hands

Austria! wrote: »

Suffice it so say I disagree. Leaving aside the issue of how good Argentina are, the idea that Spain at 7/1 is too obvious makes punters opt for Argentina at 4/1 is strange.

The masses generally ignored Spain for Euro 2012 also. Theyve won the last 3 big tournaments and people want to look by them. There's less of an 'obvious' selection in this tournament though alright, with Brazil filling that role to a degree.

Question to anyone backing the Argies at 4s. If you think theyre a good bet at 4s, then presumably you think their true price is shorter (3s-7/2 etc). If thats they case, then why didnt you unload the clip at 11/2, or even the 5s available a few weeks back? If you were planning a bet at the WC, and you thought they were 3s shots, then surely the 11/2 was a no-brainer?

The_Kew_Tour

whats the real value bet... i still think Italy will go close even after Luxembourg result.

Shanotheslayer

When where they 11/2? Probably a few months ago. So if backed at 11/2 next thing you know Aguero and Messi break a leg. Possible injuries are taken into account with odds I reckon.

Austria!

Who's up front for Columbia now?

Hulk Hands

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

whats the real value bet... i still think Italy will go close even after Luxembourg result.

I'm quite anti Italy but can see the reasons for being with them. Im finding it hard to find the right way to go against them though, bar laying them to get out of the group. One bet I did back thats still there was France to outscore them at 1.7 with 888. All 3 of Italy's games are in tough conditions, with the opener in the jungle followed by two lunchtime kickoffs in the heat of Natal and Recife. A recipe for lowscoring games. They are only 4/9 to reach the second round, with France being 1/5 and having a fairly soft group with games in nice conditions. I made this bet about a 2/5 shot myself.

Not many can get a decent bet with 888 but im heavily restricted and got over 300 on across them and Unibet (same site different company) so their limits must be high enough.

Hulk Hands

Austria! wrote: »

Who's up front for Columbia now?

Jackson Martinez and Bacca id imagine, although theyve a few options. You could get 9/2 and 8s respectively for top Colombia scorer for a good day after Falcao was pulled out.

Warper

Austria! wrote: »

Who's up front for Columbia now?

Guiterrez is a definite starter and Pekerman seems to prefer Bacca alongside

Brazil now back to 3-1

neil.p.b

fuzzydunlop85 wrote: »

Lads could someone please explain how the perm tri casts work please ! For example,can I do a couple of outcomes for the same group? Ie - Brazil /Mexico /Croatia , Brazil/Croatia/ Mexico and perm them with tri casts from all the other groups? Thanks!

Yeah. So you'd do two slips in that scenario.

MarkY91

can i do a bet on a team to be top scorers? i can see argentina reaching double figures by their 3rd group match...

Kyro

MarkY91 wrote: »

can i do a bet on a team to be top scorers? i can see argentina reaching double figures by their 3rd group match...

Argentina @4.00 to be the highest scoring team with Paddy Power.

MarkY91

Kyro wrote: »

Argentina @4.00 to be the highest scoring team with Paddy Power.

great! ill do the bet then messi will have another WC without scoring lol

Austria!

Kyro wrote: »

Argentina @4.00 to be the highest scoring team with Paddy Power.

Better odds on that around. You can get 4.5 in some places. I put 300 on today with BetVictor @4.33.

Paully D

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

whats the real value bet... i still think Italy will go close even after Luxembourg result.

Real value bet for me would be France.

They seem to have a good, committed group together now after the monstrosity of recent years and the loss of Ribery means Griezmann comes in which could be a bit of a blessing in disguise in terms of benefiting the team as a whole.

They should have a relatively safe passage into the quarter finals (groups against Ecuador, Switzerland and Honduras, then they play Bosnia/Nigeria/Iran in the last 16 presuming Argentina make it through as winners) where they would be likely to meet Germany or Portugal in a "worst case" scenario in the quarters.

I had them losing to Germany at this stage when I was doing up my predictor, but that was about 3 weeks ago and I think they'd progress against either if I was to do it again now.

I've actually just talked myself into having an e/w nibble on France, purely down to value. :pac:

Spain my main outright bet.

MaroonAndGreen

Paully D wrote: »

Real value bet for me would be France.

They seem to have a good, committed group together now after the monstrosity of recent years and the loss of Ribery means Griezmann comes in which could be a bit of a blessing in disguise in terms of benefiting the team as a whole.

They should have a relatively safe passage into the quarter finals (groups against Ecuador, Switzerland and Honduras, then they play Bosnia/Nigeria/Iran in the last 16 presuming Argentina make it through as winners) where they would be likely to meet Germany or Portugal in a "worst case" scenario in the quarters.

I had them losing to Germany at this stage when I was doing up my predictor, but that was about 3 weeks ago and I think they'd progress against either if I was to do it again now.

I've actually just talked myself into having an e/w nibble on France, purely down to value. :pac:

Spain my main outright bet.

Only worry about France is that they are relatively inexperienced when it comes to international tournaments. You look at Mangala, Schneiderlin, Digne, Cabella, Varane, Griezmann, Pogba. Thats alot of players that are inexperienced at this level.

There are more that werent at the last World Cup too.

Trimm Trabb

Completed all my outright bets now. Won't be making any more until the football starts unless I can be tempted by a special before Thursday (looking forward to lumping on Chile against Australia on Saturday to get things off to a good start).

Anyway here are thoughts down in black and white:

My main bets for winner and top scorer scorer are Spain (with Skybet money back if Brazil win it) and Messi (got on a few enhancements so have him between 8/1 and 10/1). Have a sizeable bet on Spain/Messi double at 80/1 - straight to Barbados if that one comes in!

Three bets I like are Australia to get no points (6/4), Dzeko to be top Bosnian goalscorer (13/8) and Neymar top Brazilian scorer (evens). Have done singles, doubles and trebles on all 3.

My largest individual bet is a double of Argentina to get over 6.5 group points/Austrailia to get under 1.5 points - evens on B365.

In terms of group betting its a real lottery but the 2 that stick out to me are Croatia and Bosnia to qualify second in their groups behind Brazil and Argentina. Forecasts are 11/8 and 5/4, double pays over 4/1.

Have all sorts of bets on team top scorers (Pedro - Spain 6/1, Hazard - Belguim 6/1, Toure - Ivory Coast 7/2, no Australia goalscorer 3/1, Peralta - Mexico 3/1, Mandzuckic - Croatia 3/1).

My group forecasts for what its worth are Brazil/Croatia, Spain/Chile, Colombia/Ivory Coast, Argentina/Bosnia, France/Switzerland, Germany/Portugal, Belguim/Russia.

Can not wait for it to start now.

Collie D

Paully D wrote: »

Real value bet for me would be France.

They seem to have a good, committed group together now after the monstrosity of recent years and the loss of Ribery means Griezmann comes in which could be a bit of a blessing in disguise in terms of benefiting the team as a whole.

They should have a relatively safe passage into the quarter finals (groups against Ecuador, Switzerland and Honduras, then they play Bosnia/Nigeria/Iran in the last 16 presuming Argentina make it through as winners) where they would be likely to meet Germany or Portugal in a "worst case" scenario in the quarters.

I had them losing to Germany at this stage when I was doing up my predictor, but that was about 3 weeks ago and I think they'd progress against either if I was to do it again now.

I've actually just talked myself into having an e/w nibble on France, purely down to value. :pac:

Spain my main outright bet.

100% agreed on this. Should be straightforward route to quarters and I also had Germany to beat them there in my predictor but at the price I'm willing to take a punt.

Also an each way nibble on Italy as I like the price. Could go either way with those crazy Italians...out in round one or win the lot

Not my main bet either...will post that later when I am on. Think I have spotted a nice bit of value but haven't placed bet yet.

Paully D

I'm supposed to be working, but I'm far too excited about the World Cup starting to do anything :pac: I was flicking through the odds for the opening group games and found that Croatia were a best priced 12/1 with the draw 9/2 and double chance 5/2 on opening night. I thought that was huge, and seemed to recall the "unfavoured" team doing well on opening night in World Cups in the past, so decided to have a look and see if I was correct in that assumption.

I don't think there's any point going back further than 1974, as the World Cup was a different beast prior to then and 40 years (10 World Cups) is a pretty good trend anyway. I found the below, with the favourites who won in bold.

1974 - Brazil drew 0-0 with Yugoslavia
1978 - West Germany drew 0-0 with Poland
1982 - Argentina lost 1-0 to Belgium
1986 - Italy drew 1-1 with Bulgaria
1990 - Argentina lost 1-0 to Cameroon
1994 - Germany beat Bolivia 1-0
1998 - Brazil beat Scotland 2-1
2002 - France lost 1-0 to Senegal
2006 - Germany beat Costa Rica 4-2
2010 - Mexico drew 1-1 with South Africa

So, 10 World Cups, only 3 wins for the favoured team on opening night, obviously that leaves 70% of opening night World Cup games won or draw by the unfavoured team. Croatia are quite a good side in any case. Although difficult to compare different eras etc, they're arguably better on paper than any of the above sides who have pulled off shocks. For example, Modric and Rakitic have been two of the best midfielders in Europe this season, Manduzikic has a 1 in 2 record for Munich.

History tells us it will be a tight game, with only 1 game out of the above having more than 1 goal separating the sides, and that was Germany v Costa Rica which was the highest scoring opening night game in World Cup history.

My tips:

Croatia double chance 5/2 (Bet 365)
Croatia +2 5/6 (Ladbrokes)

DB74

I agree that both bets are worth backing but IMO it's a waste of time going back 40 years to look for trends. Also Mexico were only 6/4 to beat South Africa 4 years ago (the Draw & SA were both ~ 2/1 each) so the draw was not really a shock result. Mandzukic isn't playing BTW, he's suspended.

Bateman

The +2 might be worth a poke, oppose an easy win rather than oppose the win itself

Copper_pipe

The ladbrokes shop near me have a poster up this morning. Money back on tournament winner bets if your team are eliminated at the group stages. Money back as a free bet voucher. Max refund 50 euro

DB74

Copper_pipe wrote: »

The ladbrokes shop near me have a poster up this morning. Money back on tournament wonder bets if your team are eliminated at the group stages. Money back as a free bet voucher. Max refund 50 euro

What's a wonder bet?

Copper_pipe

DB74 wrote: »

What's a wonder bet?

Blame predictive text for that. Fixed now

DB74

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Blame predictive text for that. Fixed now

Ha Ha - thanks for that. That's always happening me. I thought Ladbrokes were doing some mad team bet or something like that!

DB74

Copper_pipe wrote: »

The ladbrokes shop near me have a poster up this morning. Money back on tournament winner bets if your team are eliminated at the group stages. Money back as a free bet voucher. Max refund 50 euro

That's a good shout if you fancy a real dark horse, someone like Chile, Ivory Coast, or Ghana

Ghana are particularly interesting at 200/1. If they can get out of their group (Germany, Portugal, USA) they have nothing to fear from their Last 16 opponents (Belgium, Russia, Algeria, South Korea) and will be much shorter than 200/1 at that stage anyway. Good experience too having reached the 1/4 finals last time out and Last 16 in 2006 as well.

Backstreet Moyes

Paddy Power daily offer 3/1. Germany, France and Argentina to win their groups. Any thoughts it looks decent max stake 20.

Copper_pipe

DB74 wrote: »

That's a good shout if you fancy a real dark horse, someone like Chile, Ivory Coast, or Ghana

Ghana are particularly interesting at 200/1. If they can get out of their group (Germany, Portugal, USA) they have nothing to fear from their Last 16 opponents (Belgium, Russia, Algeria, South Korea) and will be much shorter than 200/1 at that stage anyway. Good experience too having reached the 1/4 finals last time out and Last 16 in 2006 as well.

Ya and they were on their way to the semi's In 2010 if it wasn't for the Suarez handball

Paully D

Nuts102 wrote: »

Paddy Power daily offer 3/1. Germany, France and Argentina to win their groups. Any thoughts it looks decent max stake 20.

It's around 5/2 for that to happen anyway so I don't think it's much of an enhancement. Power's love throwing up the offers that are not all that different from their real price :pac:

Copper_pipe

In all shops we're going 10/3 Brazil, top price for #WorldCup. In Irish shops we're going top price 11/8 #England NOT to qualify from Grp.

Taken from the paddy power twitter

Bateman

Paully D wrote: »

It's around 5/2 for that to happen anyway so I don't think it's much of an enhancement. Power's love throwing up the offers that are not all that different from their real price :pac:

Some of them often look half decent in fairness, I've been sucked in backing a couple that lost but I still thought were value.

Loafing Oaf

DB74 wrote: »

That's a good shout if you fancy a real dark horse, someone like Chile, Ivory Coast, or Ghana

Ghana are particularly interesting at 200/1.

I've just bet on them to leak the most goals in the tournament. I guess one of us is gonna end up looking silly...

Btw, am I right in think the conceded most goals accolade will almost certainly go to a team that gets knocked out in the first round? I suppose it's theoretically possible for someone to get to the final winning all their games 4-3 or whatever...

DominicKid

Anyone which the friendly between Honduras against England? How'd they manage only a draw, because i need to know if Honduras are that good for my group tricast accumulator!

Backstreet Moyes

Paully D wrote: »

It's around 5/2 for that to happen anyway so I don't think it's much of an enhancement. Power's love throwing up the offers that are not all that different from their real price :pac:

Yes they do but i still think it's appealing offer so i put it up. Argentina are guaranteed, many people fancy France and i think Portugal are average so Germany should top group. With so little value on offers i think any value bets should be put up. I would rather €80 back than €70 back for my €20.

Warper

PP are doing Germany, Brazil, Argie and Spain all to win their groups @ 10-3 in the shops anyways

DB74

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Btw, am I right in think the conceded most goals accolade will almost certainly go to a team that gets knocked out in the first round? I suppose it's theoretically possible for someone to get to the final winning all their games 4-3 or whatever...

Here's a list of the past "winners"

2010 - North Korea - eliminated in Group stage (12 goals)
2006 - Serbia/Montenegro - eliminated in Group stage (10 goals)
2002 - Saudi Arabia - eliminated in Group stage (12 goals)
1998 - Brazil - lost final :eek: (10 goals)
1994* - Cameroon (Group stage) & Bulgaria (4th place) - 11 goals each
1990* - United Arab Emirates - eliminated Group stage (11 goals)

You're probably safe enough going for a team to go out in the 1st round but it can happen that a team will make the semis and leak a few goals

* - 24 team tournament - therefore less minnows

Loafing Oaf

DB74 wrote: »

Here's a list of the past "winners"

2010 - North Korea - eliminated in Group stage (12 goals)
2006 - Serbia/Montenegro - eliminated in Group stage (10 goals)
2002 - Saudi Arabia - eliminated in Group stage (12 goals)
1998 - Brazil - lost final :eek: (10 goals)
1994* - Cameroon (Group stage) & Bulgaria (4th place) - 11 goals each
1990* - United Arab Emirates - eliminated Group stage (11 goals)

You're probably safe enough going for a team to go out in the 1st round but it can happen that a team will make the semis and leak a few goals

* - 24 team tournament - therefore less minnows

Thanks for doing my homework for me!;)

I've gone with Ghana cos I read somewhere they've got a poor defence and they're in a group with two teams with the potential to cut loose but I think I bet on New Zealand for this last time so I could hardlly claim to be an expert...

Deco99

DominicKid wrote: »

Anyone which the friendly between Honduras against England? How'd they manage only a draw, because i need to know if Honduras are that good for my group tricast accumulator!

You can read nothing into that game, Honduras set out to defend and play as if it was a cup final, England played with no tempo and to avoid injuries. Honduras have nothing going forward and do a ALOT of kicking, might be worth watching for overs in yellow cards cause they are goin to kick the legs off of whoever they play to make it a closer game. England brought on the kids in second half and they opened them up for a bit before letting the tempo drop again. Honduras will get beat by 3/4 by half decent teams

Bateman

Honduras v Ecuador will have a fairly high booking points line

Hamadeusentman

DB74 wrote: »

That's a good shout if you fancy a real dark horse, someone like Chile, Ivory Coast, or Ghana

Ghana are particularly interesting at 200/1. If they can get out of their group (Germany, Portugal, USA) they have nothing to fear from their Last 16 opponents (Belgium, Russia, Algeria, South Korea) and will be much shorter than 200/1 at that stage anyway. Good experience too having reached the 1/4 finals last time out and Last 16 in 2006 as well.

Good spot

Copper_pipe

https://twitter.com/Oddschanger/status/476072099648663552

Hulk Hands

Copper_pipe wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Oddschanger/status/476072099648663552

Its a free 20 quid for new customers basically. You'd be better off scouring free bet sites and get a 50 free bet off them

diomed

Ghana who are available at 350s on Betfair, meet Germany, Portugal, USA in Group G.

Shocks happened in World Cup 2010::

• France (FIFA ranked 10) finished bottom of their group.
• Italy (FIFA ranked 5) finished bottom of their group.
• Greece (FIFA ranked 12) finished third of their group.
• Serbia beat Germany.
• Switzerland beat Spain.

If there is a result in the first match Germany V Portugal at 13:00 local (a win) then Ghana could get into a good position if they can beat USA at 19:00 local. Even better if Germany lose the first game.
It is a risky bet, but you don't get long odds with certainties.

Hulk Hands

Copper_pipe wrote: »

The ladbrokes shop near me have a poster up this morning. Money back on tournament winner bets if your team are eliminated at the group stages. Money back as a free bet voucher. Max refund 50 euro

That's a great bet for backing Chile actually. 50/50 for you either getting the free bet back or having a (max) 20s shot at 40s

Med101007

Anyone got any update on Diego Costas overall fitness?
He's currently around 25/1 for top goalscorer and I am very tempted to lump on but I'm just a bit concerned as to whether he is fully fit or not.

DominicKid

diomed wrote: »

Ghana who are available at 350s on Betfair, meet Germany, Portugal, USA in Group G.

Shocks happened in World Cup 2010::

• France (FIFA ranked 10) finished bottom of their group.
• Italy (FIFA ranked 5) finished bottom of their group.
• Greece (FIFA ranked 12) finished third of their group.
• Serbia beat Germany.
• Switzerland beat Spain.

If there is a result in the first match Germany V Portugal at 13:00 local (a win) then Ghana could get into a good position if they can beat USA at 19:00 local. Even better if Germany lose the first game.
It is a risky bet, but you don't get long odds with certainties.

thanks for putting up those stats, have to redo a few tricast accum again to see what upset is likely gonna happen, appreciate your above post though.

Bateman

Even if he's fit, I don't expect him to start every game. Torres and Villa are going to get game time, Del Bosque hasn't been loyal to them and picked them in the squad for nothing

Smithwicks Man

diomed wrote: »

Shocks happened in World Cup 2010::

• France (FIFA ranked 10) finished bottom of their group.
• Italy (FIFA ranked 5) finished bottom of their group.
• Greece (FIFA ranked 12) finished third of their group.
• Serbia beat Germany.
• Switzerland beat Spain.

To be fair, Greece are ranked 12th at the minute and the USA are ranked 13th but I don't think it would be a shock to anybody if both teams finished bottom in their groups.

The FIFA rankings carry very little weight.