WC 2014 Brasil; Starts June 12th 2014

baddebt

breaking news :
Falcao out of the world cup due to ruptured Achilles
any outside chance Colombia had is now gone

The_Kew_Tour

baddebt wrote: »

breaking news :
Falcao out of the world cup due to ruptured Achilles
any outside chance Colombia had is now gone

Big loss alright no question.

Still have quality of Muriel, Martinez and Gutierrez so its not all doom and gloom.

inforfun

baddebt wrote: »

breaking news :
Falcao out of the world cup due to ruptured Achilles
any outside chance Colombia had is now gone

Not tha it matters much but it isnt the Achilles.
It is his knee.

Skippy44

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Big loss alright no question.

Still have quality of Muriel, Martinez and Gutierrez so its not all doom and gloom.

Honourable mentions for Carlos Bacca and Fredy Montero too, not quite as good as Falcao admittedly.

Hamadeusentman

I placed a few bob on Brazil when groups were announced. I think they can go all the way. I reckon it'll be Spain v Brazil final with home advantage seeing the hosts over the line.

Brazil v Spain final is 13/1

I too like the look of Dzeko or even Ibisevic as top-scorer but a cheeky outside bet for me is Ronaldo top-scorer and Brazil champions 40/1.

Smithwicks Man

Hamadeusentman wrote: »

I placed a few bob on Brazil when groups were announced. I think they can go all the way. I reckon it'll be Spain v Brazil final with home advantage seeing the hosts over the line.

Brazil v Spain final is 13/1

I too like the look of Dzeko or even Ibisevic as top-scorer but a cheeky outside bet for me is Ronaldo top-scorer and Brazil champions 40/1.

60/1 with BetVictor

BuilderPlumber

Hamadeusentman wrote: »

I placed a few bob on Brazil when groups were announced. I think they can go all the way. I reckon it'll be Spain v Brazil final with home advantage seeing the hosts over the line.

Brazil v Spain final is 13/1

I too like the look of Dzeko or even Ibisevic as top-scorer but a cheeky outside bet for me is Ronaldo top-scorer and Brazil champions 40/1.

I'd say both these teams will be in the shakeup for certain and it could well be the final. Other candidates include the usuals like Germany, Italy, Argentina, Holland, and Portugal as well as perhaps one or two surprises.

Smithwicks Man

BuilderPlumber wrote: »

I'd say both these teams will be in the shakeup for certain and it could well be the final. Other candidates include the usuals like Germany, Italy, Argentina, Holland, and Portugal as well as perhaps one or two surprises.

Don't think Holland or Portugal stand a chance tbh. Not good enough defensively and don't have enough firepower to out gun the top teams.

Brazil, Spain and Germany the favourites imo with Italy and Argentina capable of winning it. Holland, Portugal, Belgium, France and Colombia all potential land-mines but none of them strong enough to pull off an upset I don't think.

Austria!

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

Don't think Holland or Portugal stand a chance tbh. Not good enough defensively and don't have enough firepower to out gun the top teams.

Brazil, Spain and Germany the favourites imo with Italy and Argentina capable of winning it. Holland, Portugal, Belgium, France and Colombia all potential land-mines but none of them strong enough to pull off an upset I don't think.

Two can play at that game. I think both France and Belgium are more likely than Italy and Argentina.

Smithwicks Man

Austria! wrote: »

Two can play at that game. I think both France and Belgium are more likely than Italy and Argentina.

I'd favour Italy ahead of Belgium mainly due to experience plus the fact that Belgium will have a tough last 16 game against either Germany or Portugal.

The 4 are all very close in terms of their chance to win it and are capable of beating anybody, a bit of luck both in the draw and during play may be decisive.

BuilderPlumber

Belgium are getting mentioned a lot too. I have to check out how they are rated. They have appeared at previous world cups but have never made an impact like their neighbours Holland, Germany and France have done. But, they could be involved in an upset to knock someone out. Can't see them or any of the outsiders win, though.

deisechap09

Hi Im running a World cup preview blog with a snippet of betting advice and a twitter account if anyone would like to discuss a few bets or different teams. Only for a college project so nothing too serious about it. Twitter name is @WCnews14
Couple of bets in particuliar that stood out though so far, Australia to finish on 0 points (6/4), they really have an awful squad and Croatia to be eliminated in the last 16 @21/10, mainly as I think tey will qualify and are unlikely to go further!

Austria!

Blatter wrote: »

http://m.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/team-specials/england/to-make-world-cup-squad

Adam Johnson is as high as 24/1 to make the England WC squad. He is playing very well at the minute and I was a fan of his from his City days, always thought he had very good ability. If he keeps going the way he is, he's a shoe in imo. If he drops off a bit but continues to play well, he still has a good chance. Even more so considering Walcott is out. Even 10/1 on this is value imo.

Backed it at 4/1 just now.
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/feb/05/adam-johnson-sunderland-england-recall-roy-hodgson

Personally I don't think he should go, but 4/1 tempts me after he sustained his recent good form. Great tipping, Blatter.

Took Andy Carroll at the same price. Did really well last weekend, and moved up quite bit in the football365 ladder, which is not 100% reliable, but a good sign nonetheless.
http://www.football365.com/f365-features/9150429/Football365-s-Famous-World-Cup-Ladder

SheldonC17

Does Paddy Power offer a market on players making the England world cup squad?

Austria!

No

All bookies listed here
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/team-specials/england/to-make-world-cup-squad

SheldonC17

Some picks after looking at that would be:
Oxlade-Chamberlain @ 6/4
Jay Rodriquez 11/2
Zaha 10/1

Blatter

Adam Lallana @ 1.91 is a value bet imo.

I think he has a much higher chance than 53% of going to the World Cup. I'd honestly have it closer to 80%. He's been consistently very good for a long while now and started the last 2 England internationals. Almost a cert to be in the squad.

baddebt

BuilderPlumber wrote: »

Belgium are getting mentioned a lot too. I have to check out how they are rated. They have appeared at previous world cups but have never made an impact like their neighbours Holland, Germany and France have done. But, they could be involved in an upset to knock someone out. Can't see them or any of the outsiders win, though.

Belgium semi finalists 1986 (only to come up against Argentina)
and robbed of a Quarter final place in 1990 by england.

the current crop are every bit as good as the 1986 golden class ,
decent outside chance ,
would however put Portugal above them . (they are starting to remained my of the argies in 86 , the whole team willing to rally around Ronaldo. )

Warper

I think Belgium are being over-rated due to people knowing their top players that play in the PL. They are still relatively young and playing in Brazil will hardly help them. They might get to the KO stage but have no chance of winning imo.

Austria!

Blatter wrote: »

Adam Lallana @ 1.91 is a value bet imo.

I think he has a much higher chance than 53% of going to the World Cup. I'd honestly have it closer to 80%. He's been consistently very good for a long while now and started the last 2 England internationals. Almost a cert to be in the squad.

I'd certainly be on it if I was still with Coral.

I think there's lots of value in this market, but right now after 2 goals today Raheem Sterling is outlandish @ 3.5. Playing regularly, and well, for a team probably going to finish top4, and has already played a few times for England when he was younger and not as good

Skippy44

Have started putting €5 per week on France @28 and €10 on Argentina @6.2 on BF and will continue to do so weekly from here on. I'll also have a few quid on Bosnia & H and Japan with a view to laying as referred to earlier.

For tgs I'll want to be on the right side of Dzeko, Benzema, Higuain, Sturridge , Neymar mainly. Others to warrant consideration at bigger prices may be Immobile (If he travels), Misimovic, Ibisevic (already mentioned on here), maybe Okazaki or Mario Gomez. Quite a few mentioned I know but small stakes might be laid off for a healthy profit if any score early on IMO.

Will also be looking at the overall red card market should one develop, reckon there could be quite a few.

Warper

I'm all over Aguero for tgs at 16-1. All eyes will be on Messi so that will leave more space for Kun who is getting better with age. They are also in the easiest group in the tournament and should at least make the 1/4's. Will have to have a saver on Messi though as he could light it all up.

Austria!

Isn't Higuian the central striker for Argentina with Kun and Messi on the wings?

BuilderPlumber

baddebt wrote: »

Belgium semi finalists 1986 (only to come up against Argentina)
and robbed of a Quarter final place in 1990 by england.

the current crop are every bit as good as the 1986 golden class ,
decent outside chance ,
would however put Portugal above them . (they are starting to remained my of the argies in 86 , the whole team willing to rally around Ronaldo. )

No doubt, Belgium have potential and have had great squads out before like those mentioned above. They have not capitalised on their talents like their neighbours Holland, Germany and France in the past and have been unlucky to come up against such great teams as Maradona's Argentina and Lineker's England.

BuilderPlumber

Austria! wrote: »

Isn't Higuian the central striker for Argentina with Kun and Messi on the wings?

Yes. And these 3 could do a lot of damage on their own.

jimblack

Messi will not be the top scorer for sure. Sergio Agüero has a better chance than him.
Personally i think it will be spanish striker (whosoever plays - negredo or costa)
Outright: Spain/Germany/Brazil.

Warper

jimblack wrote: »

Messi will not be the top scorer for sure. Sergio Agüero has a better chance than him.
Personally i think it will be spanish striker (whosoever plays - negredo or costa)
Outright: Spain/Germany/Brazil.

You cant say for sure. He will be on the set pieces and he is the best player in the world after all. Argentina have such an easy draw that they could score a glut of goals in the group. Spain on the other hand have an extremely tough group and they normally spread the goals around. Brazil are worthy favourites though as home advantage is huge. Argentina have the forwards but they are still ropey at the back. Whereas European teams will find it hard in South America. Should be a brilliant tournament.

Dio On The Doubles

For me personally I haven't looked at top goal scorer yet and don't think I'll back it at this early stage, unless for a once off small stake on something that could be big value. Some of these guys might not even be playing if they get injured (e.g Falcao).

The Argentinian situation interests me. The couple of Argentinians I know think Messi places club above country with performance levels. Personally I think it's down to the squad Barca have feeding him and playing with them regularly. Also Argentina seem to have had a lot of political struggles internally in the national team.

Thought both these pieces might be interesting reading for anyone thinking of backing this. Seems that Argentina are dancing much more to Messi's tune now. He played a more supporting role until very recently when he seems to have made the call to place him self in a more forward position but still not centre.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/argentina/10619173/Lionel-Messi-still-on-trial-at-home-in-Argentina-until-he-can-bring-home-footballs-ultimate-prize-the-World-Cup.html

http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2014/feb/05/lionel-messi-carlos-tevez-argentina-world-cup-squad

DB74

Messi's 10 goals in qualifying would certainly indicate that he is playing a more leading/goalscoring role with the national side. The 9/1 is still fairly skinny though, especially if Argentina win their first 2 games and he could be rested for the 3rd with the group already won.

jimblack

You cant say for sure. He will be on the set pieces and he is the best player in the world after all. Argentina have such an easy draw that they could score a glut of goals in the group. Spain on the other hand have an extremely tough group and they normally spread the goals around. Brazil are worthy favourites though as home advantage is huge. Argentina have the forwards but they are still ropey at the back. Whereas European teams will find it hard in South America. Should be a brilliant tournament.

He is surely one of my favorites but he is not looking as sharp as he was before the injury. Also he does not score many goals for argentina (compared to the number of goals he scores for barca).

Agreed they have a great squad with exceptional players like messi, mascherano, sergio, higuain and diving di maria who perform great for their clubs but they do not do the same when they play for their country.

BuilderPlumber

jimblack wrote: »

He is surely one of my favorites but he is not looking as sharp as he was before the injury. Also he does not score many goals for argentina (compared to the number of goals he scores for barca).

Agreed they have a great squad with exceptional players like messi, mascherano, sergio, higuain and diving di maria who perform great for their clubs but they do not do the same when they play for their country.

In recent world cups, Argentina have always produced a very good team but have often been unlucky to face other heavyweights early on. I think they will certainly win the world cup but it is a matter of when.

BuilderPlumber

Warper wrote: »

You cant say for sure. He will be on the set pieces and he is the best player in the world after all. Argentina have such an easy draw that they could score a glut of goals in the group. Spain on the other hand have an extremely tough group and they normally spread the goals around. Brazil are worthy favourites though as home advantage is huge. Argentina have the forwards but they are still ropey at the back. Whereas European teams will find it hard in South America. Should be a brilliant tournament.

Interesting how the groups are laid out. Some easier than others. Let's see what we have:

Group 1: Brazil have it relatively soft here and (while they are good competent teams) I can't see either Croatia, Cameroon or Mexico defy Brazil's progression. I'd say Cameroon will be runner up.

Group 2: Indeed, a very tough group. Spain and Holland, traditional favourites, are there and Chile also have a top class outfit at the moment. Spain should come out of it, but Holland and Chile could vy for the top position and either has the ability to come out of the group. Australia will not come out of it, I'd say.

Group 3: Colombia will come out of this group easily. Like Chile, Colombia are a very classy team and could go a long way. The other teams in this group include Japan and Greece, and both have had some good teams in the past. I'd say Ivory Coast or Japan will come out second but Greece won't.

Group 4: At first glance, Italy and England seem likely come out of this or so it seems. Costa Rica will not cause a problem I'm sure but Uruguay (if they are the same team with the same spirit as 2010) are not to be underestimated.

Group 5: Here, you'd have to say France but who knows what can happen. I am unsure how good Ecuador are and doubt if Honduras will cause much of an upset. So, I'd say France with Switzerland will move forward here.

Group 6: Clearly, Argentina will be tops here. Iran and Bosnia may spring a surprise. But, I'd say Nigeria should come second.

Group 7: Germany and Portugal just have to come out of this. Ghana and US have had some good teams and could indeed do well in other groups and Ghana in particular may still come out of this one.

Group 8: Has to be won by Russia and I'd go for Belgium as runner up. South Korea could threaten Belgium's status but Algeria should finish last.

So, let's see:

Argentina, Nigeria, France, Switzerland, Italy, England, Colombia, Japan, Spain, Holland, Brazil, Cameroon, Germany, Portugal, Russia and Belgium are our last 16. Maybe!

jimblack

Group 1: Brazil have it relatively soft here and (while they are good competent teams) I can't see either Croatia, Cameroon or Mexico defy Brazil's progression. I'd say Cameroon will be runner up.

I say Brazil and Mexico

Group 2: Indeed, a very tough group. Spain and Holland, traditional favourites, are there and Chile also have a top class outfit at the moment. Spain should come out of it, but Holland and Chile could vy for the top position and either has the ability to come out of the group. Australia will not come out of it, I'd say.

Spain & Netherlands

Group 3: Colombia will come out of this group easily. Like Chile, Colombia are a very classy team and could go a long way. The other teams in this group include Japan and Greece, and both have had some good teams in the past. I'd say Ivory Coast or Japan will come out second but Greece won't.

Colombia & Japan

Group 4: At first glance, Italy and England seem likely come out of this or so it seems. Costa Rica will not cause a problem I'm sure but Uruguay (if they are the same team with the same spirit as 2010) are not to be underestimated.

Am hoping England and Italy but suarez and cavani wont let that happen.

Group 5: Here, you'd have to say France but who knows what can happen. I am unsure how good Ecuador are and doubt if Honduras will cause much of an upset. So, I'd say France with Switzerland will move forward here.

France & Ecuador

Group 6: Clearly, Argentina will be tops here. Iran and Bosnia may spring a surprise. But, I'd say Nigeria should come second.

Argentina & Nigeria

Group 7: Germany and Portugal just have to come out of this. Ghana and US have had some good teams and could indeed do well in other groups and Ghana in particular may still come out of this one.

Germany & Portugal

Group 8: Has to be won by Russia and I'd go for Belgium as runner up. South Korea could threaten Belgium's status but Algeria should finish last.

Belgium & South Korea

baddebt

Group 1: Brazil , Croatia

Group 2: Spain , Holland

Group 3: Colombia , Greece

Group 4: Uruguay , Italy

Group 5: France , Equador

Group 6: Argentina , Bosnia

Group 7: Germany, Portugal

Group 8: Belguim , Russia

Hamadeusentman

Group 1: Brazil , Mexico

Group 2: Spain , Holland

Group 3: Colombia , Greece

Group 4: Italy, England

Group 5: France , Switzerland

Group 6: Argentina , Bosnia

Group 7: Germany, Portugal

Group 8: Russia, Belgium.

Austria!

Who's playing up front for Brazil? Fred?

inforfun

Austria! wrote: »

Who's playing up front for Brazil? Fred?

Remains to be seen.
His last match for the Brazilians was the confed cup final.
Got injured after that but seems to play now again.

Scored in every match in the confed. Might not be a too bad shout for top goal scorer if he goes. Brazil should play a lot of matches at the wc and if he manages to score in each one again....

Austria!

inforfun wrote: »

Remains to be seen.
His last match for the Brazilians was the confed cup final.
Got injured after that but seems to play now again.

Scored in every match in the confed. Might not be a too bad shout for top goal scorer if he goes. Brazil should play a lot of matches at the wc and if he manages t oscore i neach one again....

I'm really looking at top Brazil scorer and he's @7 with BetVictor.

bradlente

Backed Rossi to be top scorer when he was in his best form,Will that be void if he doesn't make it?

Vurnon San Benito

Spain look overpriced for the tournament tbh. Could be a good trading opportunity.

I can't see them being too far away from the final.

Also France to win their group at 5/6 looks a buyer for me, the Swiss are their only likely challengers. Might double that up with a few teams to quality.

Smithwicks Man

bradlente wrote: »

Backed Rossi to be top scorer when he was in his best form,Will that be void if he doesn't make it?

It surely must be void if he doesn't play a minute and I haven't seen any special rules regarding these bets that are placed before the squads are announced so you should be fine.

DB74

bradlente wrote: »

Backed Rossi to be top scorer when he was in his best form,Will that be void if he doesn't make it?

I queried this with several bookies before the last WC and some will refund and some won't. I can't find the emails now but from memory most will refund but 1-2 won't (prob the big guns like Ladbrokes, Hills, & Corals)

I'll lash an email off to a few this afternoon and see what they say cos I would be interested in this myself

inforfun

Just went unusually big at Stage of Elimination > Holland > Group stage @2.37

Strootman is out of the WC, did his knee last night

The_Kew_Tour

inforfun wrote: »

Just went unusually big at Stage of Elimination > Holland > Group stage @2.37

Strootman is out of the WC, did his knee last night

I really fancy Chile to get out of that Group.

I watched the full 90 minutes against Germany last week.

They were bloody decent at times.

Lot of people mention Columbia but I think Chile are every bit as good

Smithwicks Man

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

I really fancy Chile to get out of that Group.

I watched the full 90 minutes against Germany last week.

They were bloody decent at times.

Lot of people mention Columbia but I think Chile are every bit as good

Agree here totally. Seen enough of Chile to know they're very solid.

discombobulate

Diego Costa looks big odds at 28/1 currently as top goalscorer.

Have backed a Spain win / Costa top scorer at odds between 120/1 and 50/1 in the past couple of months.

DB74

OK got a few replies back re the Top Goalscorer non-runner issue. There are 2 separate issues here:

1. Player doesn't make the squad
2. Player makes the squad but doesn't play at all

Player doesn't make the squad

Bet365 - void
Betfair - loser
Betfred - void
Boyles - void
Paddy Power - void
Sky Bet - loser
Stan James - void
Will Hill - void


Player makes the squad but doesn't play

Bet365 - void
Betfair - loser
Betfred - void
Boyles - loser
Paddy Power - loser
Sky Bet - loser
Stan James - loser
Will Hill - loser

Haven't heard back from the following, although it is arguably the busiest week of the year so I'll let them off for this week anyway before I chase it up

Betpack
Coral
Ladbrokes
SportingBet
Totesport
Victor Chandler

inforfun

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

I really fancy Chile to get out of that Group.

I watched the full 90 minutes against Germany last week.

They were bloody decent at times.

Lot of people mention Columbia but I think Chile are every bit as good

Last time i checked, Chile to qualify fro mthe group was evens.

Holland to go home after 1st round is @2.37

It makes more sense/profit to pick either Holland or Spain not to qualify if you think Chile will qualify.

Holland will only have Robben and Van Persie left in about the same level of class they had 4 years ago now Strootman is out.

Players that were there in South Africa and who are still in the squad have been rather hopeless (Sneijder)

Players that are not in the squad anymore because they quit playing or are not good enough anymore have not been replaced adequately or those players are still too young.

BuilderPlumber

Imagine if we had a total upset? Here we go!

Group 1: Croatia win, Mexico come second.

Group 2: Australia win, Chile come second.

Australia beat Mexico.
Croatia beat Chile.

Group 3: Ivory Coast win. Greece come second.
Group 4: Costa Rica win. Uruguay second.

Ivory Coast beat Uruguay.
Costa Rica beat Greece.

Group 5: Honduras win, Ecuador second.
Group 6: Iran win, Bosnia second.

Hondurus beat Bosnia.
Iran beat Ecuador.

Group 7: US win, Ghana second.
Group 8: Algeria win, South Korea second.

US beat South Korea.
Algeria beat Ghana.

So:

Australia beat Mexico.
Croatia beat Chile.
Ivory Coast beat Uruguay.
Costa Rica beat Greece.


Honduras beat Bosnia.
Iran beat Ecuador.
US beat South Korea.
Algeria beat Ghana.

-> Australia beat Ivory Coast.
-> Costa Rica beats Croatia.
-> Honduras beats US.
-> Algeria beats Iran.

Australia beats Honduras.
Algeria beats Costa Rica.

Final: Australia v Algeria.

Winner: Algeria !!!!

Skippy44

BuilderPlumber wrote: »

Imagine if we had a total upset? Here we go!

Group 1: Croatia win, Mexico come second.

Group 2: Australia win, Chile come second.

Australia beat Mexico.
Croatia beat Chile.

Group 3: Ivory Coast win. Greece come second.
Group 4: Costa Rica win. Uruguay second.

Ivory Coast beat Uruguay.
Costa Rica beat Greece.

Group 5: Honduras win, Ecuador second.
Group 6: Iran win, Bosnia second.

Hondurus beat Bosnia.
Iran beat Ecuador.

Group 7: US win, Ghana second.
Group 8: Algeria win, South Korea second.

US beat South Korea.
Algeria beat Ghana.

So:

Australia beat Mexico.
Croatia beat Chile.
Ivory Coast beat Uruguay.
Costa Rica beat Greece.


Honduras beat Bosnia.
Iran beat Ecuador.
US beat South Korea.
Algeria beat Ghana.

-> Australia beat Ivory Coast.
-> Costa Rica beats Croatia.
-> Honduras beats US.
-> Algeria beats Iran.

Australia beats Honduras.
Algeria beats Costa Rica.

Final: Australia v Algeria.

Winner: Algeria !!!!

Australia would take Algeria in the final!! Jerry Bengtson golden boot @ 999/1 :pac: