Can the book be beaten ...long term?

junospider

keep em coming del,got the money back today
best thread on here by miles.

shamrock55

Unlucky again with todays pick del, as it turns out i totally forgot about it anyway even though i was on here this morning for the tip, i would have got the money back anyway,looking forward to the next one;)

Nonoperational

I'm speechless after that performance by dan.

Cheers for the selections Del, they not only are making money they are injecting great life into the racing forum. Long may it continue.

del roy

1.30 Bright Applause 2pts win 13/2
5.00 Brocklebank 2pts e/w 12/1

mike65

Brocklebank has more crazy winning prices than Maurice Pratt.

sibersha

del roy wrote: »

Interesting sibersha but thats just this year, would you not need the last three years figures to say whether thats the best way forward, I'd imagine the kid looks back and where he went wrong each year and if it was that obvious he would revert to it but interesting all the same.

ta

You are correct in saying that the last 3 years figures would prove which way is the best way forward. Unless there was a freakish run of placed horses I'd be odds on that backing win only would show more profit.

There is a reason why 'successful' tipsters such as Tom Segal and Hugh Taylor advise win bets 90%+ of the time.

If the kid wants to provide the last 3 years stakes, prices & results. I'll calculate the win only figures when I get a chance.

mailburner

just spotted this
Aldopicgros

4.05nby
he had this tipped up for chelt but
it didnt run

mailburner

del roy wrote: »

Cheltenham Fred winter 4.30 wednesday. Aldopicgros 1pt e/w 25/1
.

just spotted it in time and it scoots in

del roy

del roy

May well have been in the frame had he of run.

mailburner

aaaaarrrrh

so unlucky

Brocklebank 2nd...one more stride and it was joy

mikehunts

Ouch on the line

del roy

Janus that horse is gonna break our heart.

mulbot

del roy wrote: »

Janus that horse is gonna break our heart.

unlucky,but at least placed at decent price del- cant believe i missed aldopigros,anyway,onto the next....:)

mike65

Valiant effort, probably one for the notebook.

del roy

4.40 chaval rouge 2pts e/w. 25/1

realdanbreen

UrbanSea wrote: »

Dan you are by quite a distance the most clueless poster I've come across in all of my years on the site. You claim 11 out of 53 a poor return as if he was backing odds on shots or something.

Bookies must love you and your 2 euro EW Yankee. Why on earth would he accept your challenge to do one and see who is better? Long term profits are what astute gamblers should look for and I guarantee you that it is an absolute minuscule number of EW Yankee punters that will achieve this unless they are lucky enough to achieve a big win on one.

Anymore off topic posts will lead to bans

I find it amusing that you start off calling me clueless and then threaten me with a ban if I go off topic. I never said 11 wins out of 53 was a poor return i just don't think its earth shattering as some of you here think it is. Then again if you are comparing the kids bets to some of the bets that are posted here by some posters on a daily basis then the kids bets are mind boggling.
The bottom line is there is no magic formula,no miracle man,no new improved formula for betting on horses.BTW If you think that your e/w singles are going to generate more profit than my multiples then I would have to assume that your not working in a sector that would have much emphasis on mathematical skills or basic physics.

Nonoperational

Dan, his point profit and return on investment is indeed mind boggling. IF he could do this consistently he'd be one of the best tipsters that ever tipped horses.

I'm of the opinion that he can't continue like this, but jesus he's had some few months. And it's great of them to post up here. The forum has never been so buzzing.

realdanbreen

Nonoperational wrote: »

Dan, his point profit and return on investment is indeed mind boggling. IF he could do this consistently he'd be one of the best tipsters that ever tipped horses.

I'm of the opinion that he can't continue like this, but jesus he's had some few months. And it's great of them to post up here. The forum has never been so buzzing.

Look, for sure the kid is doing good, but when your only measuring 53 bets then a couple of the longshots, 20-1, 14-1 etc that came up can put the figures askew. Also I notice that some of the posters are confusing his return from the bets with his profit from the bets.But hey I wish him well,if he is a serious punter then he should be turning over a profit at the end of each year that's what its all about.

Nonoperational

realdanbreen wrote: »

Look, for sure the kid is doing good, but when your only measuring 53 bets then a couple of the longshots, 20-1, 14-1 etc that came up can put the figures askew. Also I notice that some of the posters are confusing his return from the bets with his profit from the bets.But hey I wish him well,if he is a serious punter then he should be turning over a profit at the end of each year that's what its all about.

Of course they can, and to be fair most of the experienced posters, and indeed Del himself, recognise this. He has had a few lucky wins. But he has also had a few that knocked on the door.

Look nobody is going to leave their job and back these horses for a living, but he has been impressive so far. It's hard to deny that. Fair play to him/them. At the very least it's a bit of fun.

Deco99

What happened to ignoring him we shall not speak of? Great thread. was on during the week and again today. Annoying though that so much is taken up by that troll. Oh and for voldemort himself... we get you dont think its the second coming of christ, stop repeating yourself and trying to disrupt the thread.

del roy

3.10 Dundee 2pts e/w 12/1 2nd
1.30 Bright Applause 2pts win 13/2 unpl
5.00 Brocklebank 2pts e/w 12/1 2nd :mad:

1.8 point profit on the 3 bets this weekend

Bank +223.3pts
Starting bank 100pts
Profit +123.3pts

Just making sure everyone got last nights bet

4.40 chaval rouge 2pts e/w. 25/1

I see (oddschecker) someone nibbling at this since early yesterday.

Taff

del roy wrote: »

Just making sure everyone got last nights bet

4.40 chaval rouge 2pts e/w. 25/1

I see (oddschecker) someone nibbling at this since early yesterday.

Headsup - If anyone has a Skybet account they are now the best price at 22/1 but are the only ones offering five places

del roy

cheers Taff

del roy

4.40 chaval rouge 2pts e/w. 25/1


1. DISCIPLINE (if you have not got this, take up some other hobby)
2. Plenty of free time to go thru hours of form and watching racing.
3. Separate betting bank. (nothing to do with normal day to day money).
4. Balls of steel. (to put the same amount on a 20/1 shot as a 6/4 shot.
5. Luck. (again if you are not a lucky person get a different hobby).4. Balls of steel. (to put the same amount on a 20/1 shot as a 6/4 shot.


Just thinking out loud here, I would say it would be very hard to put 2pts e/w on a 25s shot if you were minus 27pts. As
I said earlier in the thread if you can treat a 25s shot the way one would treat a 2s shot, well done.
I think he has only had 3 four point win bets so he must fancy this today, nice easy race 21 runner handicap.

To be fair if you met anyone involved in tipping and you told him your last 56 bets here and the type of races we were backing in he would sent for the men in the white coats to take us away. 21 runner handicaps you could n't make it up.

When he agreed to do this thread, I said to myself, now I can expect 200 on 6/4, 100 on 2/1 or 300 on 4/5. Certainly nice surprise to be proven wrong.

Anyone else think the races he is picking in are eh well races tipsters in the U.K would laugh there ass off if you suggested backing in them. I don't think he has had one bet in a maiden or novice hurdle yet.

I would say auld Tommo (Ho Ho Don't Forget To Call Back Tomorrow) would love to have them on his phoneline.

del roy

del roy wrote: »

4.40 chaval rouge 2pts e/w. 25/1


1. DISCIPLINE (if you have not got this, take up some other hobby)
2. Plenty of free time to go thru hours of form and watching racing.
3. Separate betting bank. (nothing to do with normal day to day money).
4. Balls of steel. (to put the same amount on a 20/1 shot as a 6/4 shot.
5. Luck. (again if you are not a lucky person get a different hobby).4. Balls of steel. (to put the same amount on a 20/1 shot as a 6/4 shot.


Just thinking out loud here, I would say it would be very hard to put 2pts e/w on a 25s shot if you were minus 27pts. As
I said earlier in the thread if you can treat a 25s shot the way one would treat a 2s shot, well done.
I think he has only had 3 four point win bets so he must fancy this today, nice easy race 21 runner handicap.

To be fair if you met anyone involved in tipping and you told him your last 56 bets here and the type of races we were backing in he would sent for the men in the white coats to take us away. 21 runner handicaps you could n't make it up.

When he agreed to do this thread, I said to myself, now I can expect 200 on 6/4, 100 on 2/1 or 300 on 4/5. Certainly nice surprise to be proven wrong.

Anyone else think the races he is picking in are eh well races tipsters in the U.K would laugh there ass off if you suggested backing in them. I don't think he has had one bet in a maiden or novice hurdle yet.

I would say auld Tommo (Ho Ho Don't Forget To Call Back Tomorrow) would love to have them on his phoneline.

Yes I do understand thats were he has an angle but surely there are easier races to work out.

Sev

del roy wrote: »

Red = Winning Bets
Bold = e/w bets which he collected from

Started 9th December 2013
1/ 1.45 Vallani 8/1 2pts e/w 3rd
2/ 2.00 Monsieur Jamie 1pt e/w 8/1 unpl
3/ 7.50 Great Ability 12/1 2pts e/w unpl
4/ 2.00 Module 3/1 5pts unpl
5/ 3.15 mister dillion 2pts e/w 10/1 unpl
6/ 8.20 small john 2pts e/w 7/1 unpl
7/ 1.20 Riddleofthesands 4/1 2pts win unpl
8/ 3.35 Irish saint 2pts e/w 20/1 unpl
9/ 12.50 supreme carolina 1pt e/w 14/1 3rd
10/ 2.35 mountainous 1pt e/w 20/1 1st
11/ 3.30 vovalein 4pts win 7/2 2nd
12/ 1.55 aureate 9/1 2pts e/w unpl
13/ 9.15 sceilig 4pts win 2nd
14/ 1.35 Milan flyer. 2pts e/w 8/1 unpl
15/ 3.35 Saffran De Cotte 2pts e/w 14/1 unpl
16/ 3.45 Archie rice 2pts e/w 8/1 1st
17/ 2.40 Irish thistle 5pts win 7/4 1st
18/ 4.00 lady bridget 1pt e/w 12/1 unpl
19/ 4.10 Admiral Blake 2pts e/w 9/1 1st
20/ 7.25 Ice apple 1pt e/w 10/1 3rd
21/ 4.05 Keep kicking 2pts e/w 6/1 1st
22/ 2.25 Irish saint 2pts e/w 8/1 1st
23/ 3.45 True to form 1pt e/w 14/1 unpl
24/ 2.30 fair comment 1pt e/w 8/1 unpl
25/ 3.10 Midnight charmer 2pts win 5/2 1st
26/ 3.00 Bennelong 1pt e/w 7/1 unpl
27/ 4.10 captain scoopy 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl
28/ 2.40 hunters lodge 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl
29/ 3.15 noble deed 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl
30/ 3.15 money spider 1pt e/w 33/1 unpl
31/ 8.15 New Rich 2pts e/w 8/1 1st
32/ 2.55 Mr Marker 1pt e/w 14/1 1st r4 10c
33/ 2.30 ghost train 1pt e/w 14/1 2nd
34/ 2.50 scruffy tramp 2pts win 4/1 unpl
35/ 3.05 xaarcetet 1pt e/w. 14/1 unpl
36/ 3.15 bygone sovereign 1pt e/w. 12/1 unpl
37/ 1.45. Shan valley 3pts win 5/1 2nd
38/ 3.55 Dundee 2pts e/w 9/1 unpl
39/ 2.20 Vallani 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl
40/ 6.50 Lisahane Bog 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl
41/ 3.00 Profile Star 5pts win 5/1 2nd
42/ 5.10 true to form. 2pts e/w 12/1 1st
43/ 5.15 mikemccaan 3pts win. 3/1 unpl
44/ 4.20 pass the hat 1pt e/w 14/1 1st
45/ 3.20 Jezski 2pts e/w 9/1 1st
46/ 5.15 Royal Vacation 1/2pt e/w 40/1 unpl
47/ 1.30 Double Ross 1pt e/w 14/1 3rd
48/ 2.05 Alaivan 2pts e/w. 14/1 unpl
49/ 3.15 Bob tucker 2pts e/w 10/1 unpl
50/ 3.45 Give me a break 1pt e/w 12/1 unpl
51/ 3.35 You Know Yourself 2pts e/w 9/1 unpl
52/ 5.00 Teide peak 3pts win 5/1 1st
53/ 4.05 Brocklebank 3pts win 4/1 2nd

Hi guys, complete horse racing noob here, but this thread has caught my interest. Can somebody explain to me how to calculate the wins and losses for each bet?

Why do some wins (in red) have "unpl" at the end? Does that not mean unplaced?

e.g.

4/ 2.00 Module 3/1 5pts unpl

This means the horse was unplaced? your buddy bet how much on the horse and at what odds? How did he win?

7) 1.20 Riddleofthesands 4/1 2pts win unpl

This one is even more confusing, it says "win unpl", and your buddy won somehow. What happened? did the horse win, or did it not place, what did your buddy bet on, and how did he profit?

Also how do you calculate the payoff in the e/w case? e.g.

9/ 12.50 supreme carolina 1pt e/w 14/1 3rd

In this case, how much did he bet, and what profit did he make?

Thanks if anybody can help. I find it difficult to decipher.

del roy

Sev
it means they were backed to win but came nowhere.

9/ 12.50 supreme carolina 1pt e/w 14/1 3rd stake 2pts returns 3.5 profit 1.5pts

BumperD

Sev wrote: »

Hi guys, complete horse racing noob here, but this thread has caught my interest. Can somebody explain to me how to calculate the wins and losses for each bet?

He started with a Betting Bank of 100 points say for example €100. If he puts on 1 point WIN then thats €1 Win. If he puts on €1 Point Each Way, then thats a total of 2 points from his betting Bank. If those two selections lost, his Bank would read 100 less the two losses (-1) and (-2) = 97 Points left in his Bank. His objective is to end his season with >100 points in the Bank ie profit.

Why do some wins (in red) have "unpl" at the end? Does that not mean unplaced?


e.g.

4/ 2.00 Module 3/1 5pts unpl

This means the horse was unplaced? your buddy bet how much on the horse and at what odds? How did he win? Yes, Unplaced. He had 5pts Win on the horse (he forgot to include the word WIN)

7) 1.20 Riddleofthesands 4/1 2pts win unpl

This one is even more confusing, it says "win unpl", and your buddy won somehow. What happened? did the horse win, or did it not place, what did your buddy bet on, and how did he profit?

No, he did not win. The bet was "1.20 Riddleofthesands 4/1 2pts win" - the horse finished unplaced.

Also how do you calculate the payoff in the e/w case? e.g.

9/ 12.50 supreme carolina 1pt e/w 14/1 3rd

In this case, how much did he bet, and what profit did he make? He bet 1 point each way = 2 points in total from his Bank. If your horse gets placed, you generally get 1/4 the odds. In this example 1 point each way = 2 points staked. Horse placed @ 14/1 = 7/2 shot. The win part of the bet lost. The placed part gets back 4.5 points. Total return 4.5points less staked 2 points = 2.5 point profit on that bet to add to the Bank.

Thanks if anybody can help. I find it difficult to decipher.

Hope that helps

del roy

Started 9th December 2013
1/ 1.45 Vallani 8/1 2pts e/w 3rd
2/ 2.00 Monsieur Jamie 1pt e/w 8/1 unpl
3/ 7.50 Great Ability 12/1 2pts e/w unpl
4/ 2.00 Module 3/1 5pts unpl
5/ 3.15 mister dillion 2pts e/w 10/1 unpl
6/ 8.20 small john 2pts e/w 7/1 unpl
7/ 1.20 Riddleofthesands 4/1 2pts win unpl
8/ 3.35 Irish saint 2pts e/w 20/1 unpl
9/ 12.50 supreme carolina 1pt e/w 14/1 3rd
10/ 2.35 mountainous 1pt e/w 20/1 1st
11/ 3.30 vovalein 4pts win 7/2 2nd
12/ 1.55 aureate 9/1 2pts e/w unpl
13/ 9.15 sceilig 4pts win 2nd
14/ 1.35 Milan flyer. 2pts e/w 8/1 unpl
15/ 3.35 Saffran De Cotte 2pts e/w 14/1 unpl
16/ 3.45 Archie rice 2pts e/w 8/1 1st
17/ 2.40 Irish thistle 5pts win 7/4 1st
18/ 4.00 lady bridget 1pt e/w 12/1 unpl
19/ 4.10 Admiral Blake 2pts e/w 9/1 1st
20/ 7.25 Ice apple 1pt e/w 10/1 3rd
21/ 4.05 Keep kicking 2pts e/w 6/1 1st
22/ 2.25 Irish saint 2pts e/w 8/1 1st
23/ 3.45 True to form 1pt e/w 14/1 unpl
24/ 2.30 fair comment 1pt e/w 8/1 unpl
25/ 3.10 Midnight charmer 2pts win 5/2 1st
26/ 3.00 Bennelong 1pt e/w 7/1 unpl
27/ 4.10 captain scoopy 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl
28/ 2.40 hunters lodge 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl
29/ 3.15 noble deed 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl
30/ 3.15 money spider 1pt e/w 33/1 unpl
31/ 8.15 New Rich 2pts e/w 8/1 1st
32/ 2.55 Mr Marker 1pt e/w 14/1 1st r4 10c
33/ 2.30 ghost train 1pt e/w 14/1 2nd
34/ 2.50 scruffy tramp 2pts win 4/1 unpl
35/ 3.05 xaarcetet 1pt e/w. 14/1 unpl
36/ 3.15 bygone sovereign 1pt e/w. 12/1 unpl
37/ 1.45. Shan valley 3pts win 5/1 2nd
38/ 3.55 Dundee 2pts e/w 9/1 unpl
39/ 2.20 Vallani 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl
40/ 6.50 Lisahane Bog 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl
41/ 3.00 Profile Star 5pts win 5/1 2nd
42/ 5.10 true to form. 2pts e/w 12/1 1st
43/ 5.15 mikemccaan 3pts win. 3/1 unpl
44/ 4.20 pass the hat 1pt e/w 14/1 1st
45/ 3.20 Jezski 2pts e/w 9/1 1st
46/ 5.15 Royal Vacation 1/2pt e/w 40/1 unpl
47/ 1.30 Double Ross 1pt e/w 14/1 3rd
48/ 6.15 Arabian Heights 3pts win 7/2 1st
49/ 2.05 Alaivan 2pts e/w. 14/1 unpl
50/ 3.15 Bob tucker 2pts e/w 10/1 unpl
51/ 3.45 Give me a break 1pt e/w 12/1 unpl
52/ 3.35 You Know Yourself 2pts e/w 9/1 unpl
53/ 5.00 Teide peak 3pts win 5/1 1st
54/ 4.05 Brocklebank 3pts win 4/1 2nd
55/ 3.15 Dundee 2pts e/w 12/1 2nd r4
56/ 1.30 Bright Applause 2pts win 13/2 unpl
57/ 5.00 Brocklebank 2pts e/w 12/1 2nd

del roy

BumperD wrote: »

Hope that helps

Sorry Sev, bumper is right 2.5pt profit too early for me.

Sev

Hi Del_Roy, BumperD,

Thanks for the replies. I understand almost al e/w bets now, except:

32/ 2.55 Mr Marker 1pt e/w 14/1 1st r4 10c
and
55/ 3.15 Dundee 2pts e/w 12/1 2nd r4

But I still don't understand the non e/w bets. For example:

Why is 4/ "Module" a winning bet (appearing in red)? didn't he bet 5pts on Module to win, and Module was unplaced?

Other examples:

56/ 1.30 Bright Applause 2pts win 13/2 unpl"

If he bet on Bright Applause to win at 13/2, and it was unplaced. Then why is it a winning bet? (appearing in red)

54/ 4.05 Brocklebank 3pts win 4/1 2nd

Same question here. If he bet on Brocklebank to win, and it came 2nd, then why is it a winning bet (in red)?

Sorry for asking what probably appear like stupid questions. Thanks for the help.

BumperD

Sev wrote: »

Hi Del_Roy, BumperD,

Thanks for the replies. I understand almost al e/w bets now, except:

32/ 2.55 Mr Marker 1pt e/w 14/1 1st r4 10c
and
55/ 3.15 Dundee 2pts e/w 12/1 2nd r4

R4 = Means a horse was withdrawn before the start of the race & the bookies did not have an opportunity to adjust the prices. For example, the favourite in that race may have been withdrawn in Mr Markers race. Say the fav was 2/1fav, and he's now out, then Mr Marker & the rest had a better chance of winning so the bookies would have cut his price to say 8/1 or 7/1. But they didn't have a chance to set a new market before the off so Rule 4 comes into play. There are deductions to all winning bets as a result - you can read more about rule 4 here http://www.goracing.ie/HRI/Get-Involved/Betting-Division/Withdrawn-Horse-Notice--Betting-Deductions/
But I still don't understand the non e/w bets. For example:

Why is 4/ "Module" a winning bet (appearing in red)? didn't he bet 5pts on Module to win, and Module was unplaced?

Other examples:

56/ 1.30 Bright Applause 2pts win 13/2 unpl"

If he bet on Bright Applause to win at 13/2, and it was unplaced. Then why is it a winning bet? (appearing in red)

54/ 4.05 Brocklebank 3pts win 4/1 2nd

Same question here. If he bet on Brocklebank to win, and it came 2nd, then why is it a winning bet (in red)?

Sorry for asking what probably appear like stupid questions. Thanks for the help.

Think some of the colours are just a little off.

UrbanSea

realdanbreen wrote: »

'Superb performance' Your having a laugh! 53 bet placed , 11 wins ?

realdanbreen wrote: »

I find it amusing that you start off calling me clueless and then threaten me with a ban if I go off topic. I never said 11 wins out of 53 was a poor return i just don't think its earth shattering as some of you here think it is. Then again if you are comparing the kids bets to some of the bets that are posted here by some posters on a daily basis then the kids bets are mind boggling.
The bottom line is there is no magic formula,no miracle man,no new improved formula for betting on horses.BTW If you think that your e/w singles are going to generate more profit than my multiples then I would have to assume that your not working in a sector that would have much emphasis on mathematical skills or basic physics.

I find it funny that you belittle my maths skills or apparent lack of when you cam't even appreciate that ROI is more important than a % strike rate of bets. Even a 15% strike rate would be very good if you're backing 10/1 shots though you can't seem to appreciate that. Also, do you know any serious punters? Why do you think bookies love EW yankee punters such as yourself. They're going for a single big win, win single punters appreciate long term profit is more important than greed.

I'd be willing to bet you've never had a bet rejected by a bookie or an account restricted.

Also can you explain why physics would be important in betting? :pac: No my maths skills aren't great, they were my weakness when studying business and economics in college alright. Nice attempt to get personal there.

sibersha

QUOTE=realdanbreen;89586417]I find it amusing that you start off calling me clueless and then threaten me with a ban if I go off topic. I never said 11 wins out of 53 was a poor return i just don't think its earth shattering as some of you here think it is. Then again if you are comparing the kids bets to some of the bets that are posted here by some posters on a daily basis then the kids bets are mind boggling.
The bottom line is there is no magic formula,no miracle man,no new improved formula for betting on horses.BTW If you think that your e/w singles are going to generate more profit than my multiples then I would have to assume that your not working in a sector that would have much emphasis on mathematical skills or basic physics.[/QUOTE]

Dan, to be honest I thought Urban Sea (what a broodmare) was a little extreme in calling you the most clueless poster to post on here but I was wrong because you've just confirmed it with that post.

Bookies will take Yankees off you till the cows come home unless your Barney Curley!

Its consistent displicned singles that beat price that will get you banned. Your mug yankess will hugely increase the percentage of overround the books have in their favour.

You are right in saying there is no magic formula but believe me it can be done. Your last statement is actually pittyful because you couldn't be any further from truth.

UrbanSea

del roy wrote: »

4.40 chaval rouge 2pts e/w. 25/1


1. DISCIPLINE (if you have not got this, take up some other hobby)
2. Plenty of free time to go thru hours of form and watching racing.
3. Separate betting bank. (nothing to do with normal day to day money).
4. Balls of steel. (to put the same amount on a 20/1 shot as a 6/4 shot.
5. Luck. (again if you are not a lucky person get a different hobby).4. Balls of steel. (to put the same amount on a 20/1 shot as a 6/4 shot.


Just thinking out loud here, I would say it would be very hard to put 2pts e/w on a 25s shot if you were minus 27pts. As
I said earlier in the thread if you can treat a 25s shot the way one would treat a 2s shot, well done.
I think he has only had 3 four point win bets so he must fancy this today, nice easy race 21 runner handicap.

To be fair if you met anyone involved in tipping and you told him your last 56 bets here and the type of races we were backing in he would sent for the men in the white coats to take us away. 21 runner handicaps you could n't make it up.

When he agreed to do this thread, I said to myself, now I can expect 200 on 6/4, 100 on 2/1 or 300 on 4/5. Certainly nice surprise to be proven wrong.

Anyone else think the races he is picking in are eh well races tipsters in the U.K would laugh there ass off if you suggested backing in them. I don't think he has had one bet in a maiden or novice hurdle yet.

I would say auld Tommo (Ho Ho Don't Forget To Call Back Tomorrow) would love to have them on his phoneline.

In fairness Del no tipster worth their salt would dream of backing a horse in a novice (unless a graded race or handicap) or a maiden. His bets are exactly the ones that most tipsters would go for. Often well handicapped runners in handicaps

Nulty

Cheval Rouge was third in this race last year off a two pound lower mark on Soft to Heavy ground and has won on Soft/Heavy 2 out of 4 times he's tried, the latest of those being off a mark of 72 in August last year with a 3lbs claimer on.

I can see why he's interested in this

mikehunts

Nulty wrote: »

Cheval Rouge was third in this race last year off a two pound lower mark on Soft to Heavy ground and has won on Soft/Heavy 2 out of 4 times he's tried, the latest of those being off a mark of 72 in August last year with a 3lbs claimer on.

I can see why he's interested in this

Was it not second place?

Nulty

mikehunts wrote: »

Was it not second place?

It was.

I originally put down 3rd off 2lbs lower when it should have been 2nd off 2lbs lower. Forgot to correct the placings

del roy

UrbanSea wrote: »

In fairness Del no tipster worth their salt would dream of backing a horse in a novice (unless a graded race or handicap) or a maiden. His bets are exactly the ones that most tipsters would go for. Often well handicapped runners in handicaps

Urban, as a ex Isiris/winningline member I have to disagree, the winning line did give out a few big saturday gambles in the big handicaps mainly out of the V.Williams yard however 80% of the other bets were in Group/listed//stakes or graded/maiden races.

Just talking about a very expensive tipping service a few of us were in years ago and I was picked to ring them, then ring the lads with the bets. however just before I rang one of the older guys came into my house so he is standing by the phone with me, it was a recorded message back then.

put my pin number in

"Good morning member there is no racing bet today however we are recommending a 1pt win bet in the Christmas Number 1 market

the bet is Bob the Builder to be number 1 14/1

Back then the price did not last pissing time once they gave the bet out so the minute the older guy heard me say bob the builder 14/1 he was gone out the door. I rang the rest of the lads, told them the story and they backed it, 30 minutes later the older guy rings me , where the **** is that bob the builder horse running, I said its to be number 1 in the top of the pops market, he put the phone down, rang me 2 mins later back saying

fook it its only 7/2 now I will leave it sure WESTLIFE are 1/2, it won't beat that,

Christmas eve betting

2/5 west life
bob the builder 11/4

winner bob the builder.

they somehow knew what shops the beeb where using to workout the sales for the records, cute whores them guys that ran that.

del roy

Laddies still going 25s on Chaval rouge. :eek:

Nulty

I would rather take 3 points shorter for an extra place on SkyBet. They're offering 5 places and Cheval Rouge is 22/1

del roy

Yeah Nulty that makes sense, I just hate to see laddies going the biggest on it even if it is a 21 runner handicap.

Sev

Ok, using what I've been told about how to calculate his profit and loss. I have tabulated the profit/loss he made on each bet below (maybe there are some mistakes, I wasn't sure how to deal with the R4 cases)

1/ 1.45 Vallani 8/1 2pts e/w 3rd (+2)
2/ 2.00 Monsieur Jamie 1pt e/w 8/1 unpl (-2)
3/ 7.50 Great Ability 12/1 2pts e/w unpl (-4)
4/ 2.00 Module 3/1 5pts unpl (-5)
5/ 3.15 mister dillion 2pts e/w 10/1 unpl (-4)
6/ 8.20 small john 2pts e/w 7/1 unpl (-4)
7/ 1.20 Riddleofthesands 4/1 2pts win unpl (+8)
8/ 3.35 Irish saint 2pts e/w 20/1 unpl (-4)
9/ 12.50 supreme carolina 1pt e/w 14/1 3rd (+2.5)
10/ 2.35 mountainous 1pt e/w 20/1 1st (+20)
11/ 3.30 vovalein 4pts win 7/2 2nd (-4)
12/ 1.55 aureate 9/1 2pts e/w unpl (-4)
13/ 9.15 sceilig 4pts win 2nd (-4)
14/ 1.35 Milan flyer. 2pts e/w 8/1 unpl (-4)
15/ 3.35 Saffran De Cotte 2pts e/w 14/1 unpl (-4)
16/ 3.45 Archie rice 2pts e/w 8/1 1st (+20)
17/ 2.40 Irish thistle 5pts win 7/4 1st (+8.75)
18/ 4.00 lady bridget 1pt e/w 12/1 unpl (-2)
19/ 4.10 Admiral Blake 2pts e/w 9/1 1st (+22.5)
20/ 7.25 Ice apple 1pt e/w 10/1 3rd (+1.5)
21/ 4.05 Keep kicking 2pts e/w 6/1 1st (+15)
22/ 2.25 Irish saint 2pts e/w 8/1 1st (+20)
23/ 3.45 True to form 1pt e/w 14/1 unpl (-2)
24/ 2.30 fair comment 1pt e/w 8/1 unpl (-2)
25/ 3.10 Midnight charmer 2pts win 5/2 1st (+5)
26/ 3.00 Bennelong 1pt e/w 7/1 unpl (-2)
27/ 4.10 captain scoopy 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl (-2)
28/ 2.40 hunters lodge 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl (-2)
29/ 3.15 noble deed 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl (-2)
30/ 3.15 money spider 1pt e/w 33/1 unpl (-2)
31/ 8.15 New Rich 2pts e/w 8/1 1st (+20)
32/ 2.55 Mr Marker 1pt e/w 14/1 1st r4 10c (+15.75)
33/ 2.30 ghost train 1pt e/w 14/1 2nd (+2.5)
34/ 2.50 scruffy tramp 2pts win 4/1 unpl (-2)
35/ 3.05 xaarcetet 1pt e/w. 14/1 unpl (-2)
36/ 3.15 bygone sovereign 1pt e/w. 12/1 unpl (-2)
37/ 1.45. Shan valley 3pts win 5/1 2ndd (-3)
38/ 3.55 Dundee 2pts e/w 9/1 unpl (-4)
39/ 2.20 Vallani 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl (-4)
40/ 6.50 Lisahane Bog 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl (-4)
41/ 3.00 Profile Star 5pts win 5/1 2nd (-5)
42/ 5.10 true to form. 2pts e/w 12/1 1st (+30)
43/ 5.15 mikemccaan 3pts win. 3/1 unpl (-3)
44/ 4.20 pass the hat 1pt e/w 14/1 1st (+17.5)
45/ 3.20 Jezski 2pts e/w 9/1 1st (+22.5)
46/ 5.15 Royal Vacation 1/2pt e/w 40/1 unpl (-1)
47/ 1.30 Double Ross 1pt e/w 14/1 3rd (+2.5)
48/ 6.15 Arabian Heights 3pts win 7/2 1st (+10.5)
49/ 2.05 Alaivan 2pts e/w. 14/1 unpl (-4)
50/ 3.15 Bob tucker 2pts e/w 10/1 unpl (-4)
51/ 3.45 Give me a break 1pt e/w 12/1 unpl (-2)
52/ 3.35 You Know Yourself 2pts e/w 9/1 unpl (-4)
53/ 5.00 Teide peak 3pts win 5/1 1st (+15)
54/ 4.05 Brocklebank 3pts win 4/1 2nd (-3)
55/ 3.15 Dundee 2pts e/w 12/1 2nd r4 (+5.4)
56/ 1.30 Bright Applause 2pts win 13/2 unpl (-2)
57/ 5.00 Brocklebank 2pts e/w 12/1 2nd (+6)

I have attached some plots and statistics below.

I show the cumulated profit, which looks very significant and impressive. The light grey lines are "bootstrap resampling": they are intended to give you an idea of the error on the result. They are a whole bunch of different possible universes in which I select 57 bets randomly with replacement from the 57 bets he made in his real history.

The second graph is a histogram of the final profit for each of these light grey universes. Again, this is just to give you an idea of the significance and reliability of the profit, if indeed the data I am given is accurate.

del roy

Sev wrote: »

Ok, using what I've been told about how to calculate his profit and loss. I have tabulated the profit/loss he made on each bet below (maybe there are some mistakes, I wasn't sure how to deal with the R4 cases)

1/ 1.45 Vallani 8/1 2pts e/w 3rd (+2)
2/ 2.00 Monsieur Jamie 1pt e/w 8/1 unpl (-2)
3/ 7.50 Great Ability 12/1 2pts e/w unpl (-4)
4/ 2.00 Module 3/1 5pts unpl (-5)
5/ 3.15 mister dillion 2pts e/w 10/1 unpl (-4)
6/ 8.20 small john 2pts e/w 7/1 unpl (-4)
7/ 1.20 Riddleofthesands 4/1 2pts win unpl (+8)
8/ 3.35 Irish saint 2pts e/w 20/1 unpl (-4)
9/ 12.50 supreme carolina 1pt e/w 14/1 3rd (+2.5)
10/ 2.35 mountainous 1pt e/w 20/1 1st (+20)
11/ 3.30 vovalein 4pts win 7/2 2nd (-4)
12/ 1.55 aureate 9/1 2pts e/w unpl (-4)
13/ 9.15 sceilig 4pts win 2nd (-4)
14/ 1.35 Milan flyer. 2pts e/w 8/1 unpl (-4)
15/ 3.35 Saffran De Cotte 2pts e/w 14/1 unpl (-4)
16/ 3.45 Archie rice 2pts e/w 8/1 1st (+20)
17/ 2.40 Irish thistle 5pts win 7/4 1st (+8.75)
18/ 4.00 lady bridget 1pt e/w 12/1 unpl (-2)
19/ 4.10 Admiral Blake 2pts e/w 9/1 1st (+22.5)
20/ 7.25 Ice apple 1pt e/w 10/1 3rd (+1.5)
21/ 4.05 Keep kicking 2pts e/w 6/1 1st (+15)
22/ 2.25 Irish saint 2pts e/w 8/1 1st (+20)
23/ 3.45 True to form 1pt e/w 14/1 unpl (-2)
24/ 2.30 fair comment 1pt e/w 8/1 unpl (-2)
25/ 3.10 Midnight charmer 2pts win 5/2 1st (+5)
26/ 3.00 Bennelong 1pt e/w 7/1 unpl (-2)
27/ 4.10 captain scoopy 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl (-2)
28/ 2.40 hunters lodge 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl (-2)
29/ 3.15 noble deed 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl (-2)
30/ 3.15 money spider 1pt e/w 33/1 unpl (-2)
31/ 8.15 New Rich 2pts e/w 8/1 1st (+20)
32/ 2.55 Mr Marker 1pt e/w 14/1 1st r4 10c (+15.75)
33/ 2.30 ghost train 1pt e/w 14/1 2nd (+2.5)
34/ 2.50 scruffy tramp 2pts win 4/1 unpl (-2)
35/ 3.05 xaarcetet 1pt e/w. 14/1 unpl (-2)
36/ 3.15 bygone sovereign 1pt e/w. 12/1 unpl (-2)
37/ 1.45. Shan valley 3pts win 5/1 2ndd (-3)
38/ 3.55 Dundee 2pts e/w 9/1 unpl (-4)
39/ 2.20 Vallani 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl (-4)
40/ 6.50 Lisahane Bog 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl (-4)
41/ 3.00 Profile Star 5pts win 5/1 2nd (-5)
42/ 5.10 true to form. 2pts e/w 12/1 1st (+30)
43/ 5.15 mikemccaan 3pts win. 3/1 unpl (-3)
44/ 4.20 pass the hat 1pt e/w 14/1 1st (+17.5)
45/ 3.20 Jezski 2pts e/w 9/1 1st (+22.5)
46/ 5.15 Royal Vacation 1/2pt e/w 40/1 unpl (-1)
47/ 1.30 Double Ross 1pt e/w 14/1 3rd (+2.5)
48/ 6.15 Arabian Heights 3pts win 7/2 1st (+10.5)
49/ 2.05 Alaivan 2pts e/w. 14/1 unpl (-4)
50/ 3.15 Bob tucker 2pts e/w 10/1 unpl (-4)
51/ 3.45 Give me a break 1pt e/w 12/1 unpl (-2)
52/ 3.35 You Know Yourself 2pts e/w 9/1 unpl (-4)
53/ 5.00 Teide peak 3pts win 5/1 1st (+15)
54/ 4.05 Brocklebank 3pts win 4/1 2nd (-3)
55/ 3.15 Dundee 2pts e/w 12/1 2nd r4 (+5.4)
56/ 1.30 Bright Applause 2pts win 13/2 unpl (-2)
57/ 5.00 Brocklebank 2pts e/w 12/1 2nd (+6)

I have attached some plots and statistics below.

I show the cumulated profit, which looks very significant and impressive. The light grey lines are "bootstrap resampling": they are intended to give you an idea of the error on the result. They are a whole bunch of different possible universes in which I select 57 bets randomly with replacement from the 57 bets he made in his real history.

The second graph is a histogram of the final profit for each of these light grey universes. Again, this is just to give you an idea of the significance and reliability of the profit, if indeed the data I am given is accurate.

Sorry Sev but I have not got a clue what you are on about ref the graphs an all that, I just know how to back them thats far to complicated for me.

Nulty

Sev wrote: »

Ok, using what I've been told about how to calculate his profit and loss. I have tabulated the profit/loss he made on each bet below (maybe there are some mistakes, I wasn't sure how to deal with the R4 cases)

1/ 1.45 Vallani 8/1 2pts e/w 3rd (+2)
2/ 2.00 Monsieur Jamie 1pt e/w 8/1 unpl (-2)
3/ 7.50 Great Ability 12/1 2pts e/w unpl (-4)
4/ 2.00 Module 3/1 5pts unpl (-5)
5/ 3.15 mister dillion 2pts e/w 10/1 unpl (-4)
6/ 8.20 small john 2pts e/w 7/1 unpl (-4)
7/ 1.20 Riddleofthesands 4/1 2pts win unpl (+8)
8/ 3.35 Irish saint 2pts e/w 20/1 unpl (-4)
9/ 12.50 supreme carolina 1pt e/w 14/1 3rd (+2.5)
10/ 2.35 mountainous 1pt e/w 20/1 1st (+20)
11/ 3.30 vovalein 4pts win 7/2 2nd (-4)
12/ 1.55 aureate 9/1 2pts e/w unpl (-4)
13/ 9.15 sceilig 4pts win 2nd (-4)
14/ 1.35 Milan flyer. 2pts e/w 8/1 unpl (-4)
15/ 3.35 Saffran De Cotte 2pts e/w 14/1 unpl (-4)
16/ 3.45 Archie rice 2pts e/w 8/1 1st (+20)
17/ 2.40 Irish thistle 5pts win 7/4 1st (+8.75)
18/ 4.00 lady bridget 1pt e/w 12/1 unpl (-2)
19/ 4.10 Admiral Blake 2pts e/w 9/1 1st (+22.5)
20/ 7.25 Ice apple 1pt e/w 10/1 3rd (+1.5)
21/ 4.05 Keep kicking 2pts e/w 6/1 1st (+15)
22/ 2.25 Irish saint 2pts e/w 8/1 1st (+20)
23/ 3.45 True to form 1pt e/w 14/1 unpl (-2)
24/ 2.30 fair comment 1pt e/w 8/1 unpl (-2)
25/ 3.10 Midnight charmer 2pts win 5/2 1st (+5)
26/ 3.00 Bennelong 1pt e/w 7/1 unpl (-2)
27/ 4.10 captain scoopy 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl (-2)
28/ 2.40 hunters lodge 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl (-2)
29/ 3.15 noble deed 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl (-2)
30/ 3.15 money spider 1pt e/w 33/1 unpl (-2)
31/ 8.15 New Rich 2pts e/w 8/1 1st (+20)
32/ 2.55 Mr Marker 1pt e/w 14/1 1st r4 10c (+15.75)
33/ 2.30 ghost train 1pt e/w 14/1 2nd (+2.5)
34/ 2.50 scruffy tramp 2pts win 4/1 unpl (-2)
35/ 3.05 xaarcetet 1pt e/w. 14/1 unpl (-2)
36/ 3.15 bygone sovereign 1pt e/w. 12/1 unpl (-2)
37/ 1.45. Shan valley 3pts win 5/1 2ndd (-3)
38/ 3.55 Dundee 2pts e/w 9/1 unpl (-4)
39/ 2.20 Vallani 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl (-4)
40/ 6.50 Lisahane Bog 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl (-4)
41/ 3.00 Profile Star 5pts win 5/1 2nd (-5)
42/ 5.10 true to form. 2pts e/w 12/1 1st (+30)
43/ 5.15 mikemccaan 3pts win. 3/1 unpl (-3)
44/ 4.20 pass the hat 1pt e/w 14/1 1st (+17.5)
45/ 3.20 Jezski 2pts e/w 9/1 1st (+22.5)
46/ 5.15 Royal Vacation 1/2pt e/w 40/1 unpl (-1)
47/ 1.30 Double Ross 1pt e/w 14/1 3rd (+2.5)
48/ 6.15 Arabian Heights 3pts win 7/2 1st (+10.5)
49/ 2.05 Alaivan 2pts e/w. 14/1 unpl (-4)
50/ 3.15 Bob tucker 2pts e/w 10/1 unpl (-4)
51/ 3.45 Give me a break 1pt e/w 12/1 unpl (-2)
52/ 3.35 You Know Yourself 2pts e/w 9/1 unpl (-4)
53/ 5.00 Teide peak 3pts win 5/1 1st (+15)
54/ 4.05 Brocklebank 3pts win 4/1 2nd (-3)
55/ 3.15 Dundee 2pts e/w 12/1 2nd r4 (+5.4)
56/ 1.30 Bright Applause 2pts win 13/2 unpl (-2)
57/ 5.00 Brocklebank 2pts e/w 12/1 2nd (+6)

I have attached some plots and statistics below.

I show the cumulated profit, which looks very significant and impressive. The light grey lines are "bootstrap resampling": they are intended to give you an idea of the error on the result. They are a whole bunch of different possible universes in which I select 57 bets randomly with replacement from the 57 bets he made in his real history.

The second graph is a histogram of the final profit for each of these light grey universes. Again, this is just to give you an idea of the significance and reliability of the profit, if indeed the data I am given is accurate.

That looks cool but I'm a little way of understanding it

del roy

10/ 2.35 mountainous 1pt e/w 20/1 1st (+20) +25

57/ 5.00 Brocklebank 2pts e/w 12/1 2nd (+6) only a 5th the odds plus r4 20c in the pound

del roy

Nulty how do i see it

cson

Can you add me to the PMs del roy? Or how is this working?

Sev

del roy wrote: »

Sorry Sev but I have not got a clue what you are on about ref the graphs an all that, I just know how to back them thats far to complicated for me.

Fair enough. My main point is that the dark black line which is his winnings over time is pretty straight. Its not all over the shop or dominated by one big win which lends credence to the theory that he's beating the book in the long run.